Richmond used to be a laughing stock for finishing ninth all the time. Now they’re a laughing stock for losing elimination finals each year. Progress can be slow and unrewarding.
For the second time in three years the Tigers finished fifth on the ladder with 15 wins, but couldn’t go on with it in September. Of the four teams above them, they beat Hawthorn, Fremantle in Perth and Sydney at the SCG, which gives us an indication of their quality.
Their fragility was shown up earlier in the season with a now customary sluggish start, leaving them 2-4, including a loss to lowly Melbourne for the second consecutive year.
Read the rest of Cam’s AFL season previews here.
Let’s have a look at the squad that will try and take them back to the September well once more.
| B: | Dylan Grimes | Alex Rance | Jake Batchelor | |
| HB: | Nick Vlastuin | Troy Chaplin | Bachar Houli | |
| C: | Chris Yarran | Dustin Martin | Brandon Ellis | |
| HF: | Shane Edwards | Jack Riewoldt | Connor Menadue | |
| F: | Brett Deledio | Ty Vickery | Ben Lennon | |
| Foll: | Ivan Maric | Trent Cotchin | A.Miles | |
| Int: | Reece Conca | Shaun Grigg | Ben Griffiths | Jacob Townsend |
| Em: | David Astbury | Kamdyn McIntosh | Corey Ellis |
The five best defensive sides of 2015 filled the top five spots on the ladder, and only 30 points separated the lot of them in the points against column. Richmond were a part of this group.
Alex Rance is the premier backman in the competition, which is always a solid foundation on which to build. No-one is tougher to beat one-on-one, and few attack with as much gusto when it’s time to go. He made our top ten players in the competition earlier in the week.
Troy Chaplin has been a mainstay of the Tiger defence for three years, since crossing over from Port. Ever-consistent, he’s been a solid defender and interceptor, but his position appears to be under threat from David Astbury if the NAB Challenge games are any indication.
Chaplin has been tried forward in that competition, with some noises being made about the move transitioning into the season proper. If it’s a case of rewarding Astbury for his loyalty and the struggles he’s overcome, at the expense of team structure, then the move indicates a weak coaching panel.
If Astbury has passed Chaplin, which is what you want from your understudies, then the latter should be playing in the reserves to force his way back.
Richmond don’t have a natural back pocket other than Steven Morris who offers less than nothing offensively, so Nick Vlastuin has found himself back there, where his judgement, calmness and poise has been used to good effect.
Vlastuin has only missed four matches since debuting, but entering his fourth season and with 61 games under his belt, he needs to offer more drive from this point on.
Dylan Grimes and Jake Batchelor, at 193cm and 188cm respectively, can both play tall or small, which means the Tiger backline is one of the more versatile in the league. Rarely is there a mix of forwards they can’t adequately cover, although North Melbourne fans may be surprised at this statement.
Rebound from defence has been a weapon under Hardwick, and they should be more dangerous than ever with the addition of Chris Yarran to provide his patented mix of grace and speed.
Bachar Houli has been the most consistent half-back in the competition for a number of years, and can consider himself unlucky not to have been named in the All-Australian 40 last year.
The Richmond midfield has a lot of very good footballers to call upon, and the mix is complementary.
Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin are the guns of this group. Martin is the most damaging with his penetrating boot, natural link-work and regular goal-kicking. He straightens the side up in a way that Cotchin doesn’t, given the latter can be addicted chipping 15m chip passes.
Cotchin kicked 12 goals last season, but only two against top eight sides. He crossed 30 disposals a lowly five times, but only once against a fellow finalist. The Tigers need him tearing apart quality sides if they’re going to go deep into September. He’s capable of it.
Anthony Miles is one of the best clearance players in the competition, and the amount of free kicks he gets is a good indication of how often he puts himself in the danger zone. Brandon Ellis is the ying to Miles’ yang, a purely outside player.
Ellis failed to finish in the top ten in the Tigers best and fairest, which would surprise stats-watchers. But it was the right call, as he failed to impact games in the way he had done previously. His challenge is to be incisive with his foot skills, and give opposition coaches a reason to man him more tightly.
Shaun Grigg had his most rounded season in 2015, and was most important to Richmond’s cause. Reece Conca can’t get continuity into his football and is yet to prove himself more than a depth midfielder. He’s injured again, so his story will continue as a familiar one.
Jacob Townsend has been procured from GWS and looks likely to play as a bullocking inside mid with his fierce tackling and willingness to use his body as a battering ram. The danger is having too many one-paced players in the same area.
Ivan Maric is frequently seen as a barometer for the Tiges, and has a presence that belies his stats. He is starting to struggle against the bigger and more athletic ruckman though, and there will come a time where heart isn’t enough.
Kamdyn McIntosh made his debut in Rd 1 last year and didn’t miss a game for the season playing off a wing. His work rate was a feature, but his skills need improvement, and his spot has come under pressure from Connor Menadue, who has extreme pace.
Eight teams scored more than Richmond over the course of 2015, so the forward-line is a weakness that often struggles to kick easy goals that other top sides do. It is still somewhat dysfunctional.
Dual Coleman medallist and All-Australian Jack Riewoldt is the key man. You’ll read and hear a lot of nonsense about Riewoldt from the media and Joe Public, but it’s mainly false or years behind in its relevancy.
His work ethic and team ethos has been of the highest standard for many years, and being top ten in the AFL for goal assists speaks of his ability to bring others into the game. His creativity as a key position player in the forward-half is a feature skill.
The tall support for Riewoldt is still a weakness.
Tyrone Vickery has become more consistent, and might be about to make his mark as a 40-50 goal forward after a strong finish to 2015. He’s only been goalless once in his last 21 matches, and that was when subbed off early with injury.
Ben Griffiths is still a nothing player who can show glimpses of talent, but doesn’t possess enough vigour, presence or a high football IQ. He needs to assert himself as an aggressive support ruckman and third tall forward if he’s to cement a spot and have a career.
Brett Deledio is one of the top three most important players in the Richmond set-up, and has a crucial role to play as a more permanent forward, where his cleanliness, surety and skill can kick goals and set them up.
Shane Edwards is also critical, and offers the Tigers something different with his ability to create angles in traffic and extract the ball where others can’t. When he gets involved, good things happen for the team.
Ben Lennon started to have an impact in the latter third of last season, and there is a role for his type of lead-up player in the forward-half. He doesn’t play hungry enough though, which is going to hold him back.
Corey Ellis has the silk and will be required to step up. Daniel Rioli has been given chances in the pre-season and the coaches will be keen to see him at AFL level.
Richmond has a lot of top end quality, and their depth is still building. They’ve got more reserves to call on, that can hold their own at AFL level, than many teams.
Damien Hardwick had his best season by a long way in the coaches box in 2015, particularly shown with the defeats of Fremantle and Hawthorn owing to a very disciplined and definite style of play tailored for those matches.
His effort against North in the elimination final was appalling, given he had seen Brad Scott’s intentions with a lesser side the week before.
Hardwick still seems to have immature outbursts over one or two issues a year, as we saw last week with his petulant display, playing with only 15 men and trying to get a game cancelled.
The team still has an immaturity about it in pressure situations too, with their slow starts to the year and an inability to put away finals from a position of strength speaking to a mental weakness.
Richmond are a very good defensive team, have a strong midfield, an adequate forward-line and possess quality top end players across the ground.
They’re unlikely to challenge for the flag until they can fix their issues, fill some holes and start the season fast. But they should be somewhere at the next level down.
Predicted ladder spread: fourth – eighth
Predicted finish: sixth
Best and fairest: Dustin Martin
Leading goalkicker: Jack Riewoldt
All-Australian potential: Alex Rance, Bachar Houli, Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Brett Deledio
Rising Star candidates: Corey Ellis, Connor Menadue, Daniel Rioli
Current ladder
6. Richmond
7. Sydney
8. GWS
9. Collingwood
10. Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Gold Coast
14. Port Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon
Bill
Guest
Yep. Richmond are going real well.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
"But the game against the Crows last year showed the big weakness in the Tigers that have not been addressed" But the game against the Crows yesterday showed the big weaknesses in the Tigers have not been addressed :-)
roseycheeks
Guest
The Tigers' opportunity was 2015. Richmond will need divine intervention if it is to have any silverware in it's cabinet in the next 2 seasons!
Liam
Guest
"Bachar Houli has been the most consistent half-back in the competition for a number of years..." I can't believe I'm about to say this, seeing as I don't like Hawthorn, but do Burgoyne and Gibson not exist? Heath Shaw? This is a wildly outlandish statement about a player who has disease of the seagull, and has for the duration of time you are discussing. While last year he had a great year - given that the Tigers found a way to minimize his deficiencies by planting the best full back in the comp behind him - to say that he has been 'the' most consistent half back' over the last few is something of an exaggeration at best. As for the rest of what you say, Richmond brought in players who add to their game in terms of their disposal and their speed, but again they have neglected the two things they truly need, beyond all else - more tackling through the midfield, seeing as only Miles and, very occasionally Martin, are the players who even lay a tackle in there - and a key forward to complement Jack Riewoldt. If they had gotten Dixon last trade period, that would have made them nearly a flag chance, but seeing as they didn't, that renders them, again, an also ran.
Peter Chambers
Roar Rookie
Well reasoned and good insight Cameron. As a Tiger fan sitting on the ledge for many years now I am hopeful in a "glass half empty" kind of Richmond way that everyone will improve that little bit as realistically, this is what needs to happen if the club is to take the next step. All players must grow that bit more to the point where the auto-pilot mentality kicks in - eveyone knows their role and has the confidence that everyone else knows theirs and is performing accordingly. The reality is that process-driven kind of approach is what creates success in this era although maybe the rotations back to 90 allows for flair and natural football smarts to have more impact, particularly late in the game - Dusty one-out in the F50 kind of stuff. Anyway, continiung to live the dream
Milo
Roar Rookie
Great post Simon, thoroughly enjoyed the read. Noticed you 'cut the cord' on Grigg too, which is a good move. We cant begin to inject the supposedly classy youth of Menadue, C Ellis, Lennon and even Rioli without doing so. Geez I still worry about Meg's boy tho but I understand your logic.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
So much love and knowledge poured into this review. However accurate it might be, surely this is your benchmark for the preview series
Simon
Roar Rookie
FB: Vlastuin Astbury Grimes HB: Yarran Rance Houli C: B. Ellis Martin Menadue HF: Edwards Reiwoldt Deledio FF: Rioli Vickery Lennon Foll: Maric Cotchin Miles Int: McIntosh Townsend C. Ellis Hampson Alternative best 22 for Richmond. Time for more zone defense. Cut the cord on Chaplin and Batchelor. Get Rance, Vlastuin and Grimes using their aerial ability and smarts to cover zoned areas and back themselves. Astbury can be the athletic defender tasked to mind a forward. Stop the supply with a zone, get the ball out to Houli and Yarran (who are also both smart enough in the air defensively) and don't worry about it. The athletic and tall Kamdyn McIntosh can be utilised on a back flank as well when not on a wing. Go with Brandon Ellis and Menadue on a wing and get them running both ways and really working slow teams over. Corey Ellis can add a touch of extra class to that and the half forward rotation as well. The midfield can then focus on attacking the ball and aggressively pressuring and shutting down opponents. Force the turnovers in bad spots and ball movement comes naturally. The forward line is dangerous but it needs a crumber and it needs more speed and pressure. Throw Rioli in, see if he sinks or swims. Don't be afraid to throw Lennon to half back as well if he's not getting a kick. If you want him to be more aggressive then force him to down back. He adds intercept marking power as well. Hampson is a shock. He's a terrible footballer who always finds a way to get injured or stuff up something trivial. But he's a legit tap ruckman. The Tigers are (mostly) fit and experienced. They should be able to handle a ruck riding the pine and Maric is underutilised forward. He's slow but so is Griffiths and at least he kicks goals. Hampson will give away a couple of goals being a muppet but combined with Maric he'll give the mids more first use and encourage aggressive midfield play. Plus Maric might last longer in to the season. Probably a long term bad move but short term worth a go and it makes Griffiths earn his spot. He's needs a month of dominant VFL performances I think to show he's got the drive for AFL. He's been coasting for too long.
David C
Guest
How do you see McBean and McKenzie developing in the future? They don't seem to be getting much of a look in at the moment. Even Choi seems to be ahead of them.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
The question from here is who makes Cam's top four out of Fremantle, Geelong and the Dogs. One of those sides misses out. I reckon I know which one (and I have no insight into where Cam's ladder has settled).
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I'm going to go so far as to say Richmond will have the best defence in the competition this season. Alex Rance is in the head of every single midfielder looking to dispose of the ball inside 50. They know that if he gets a decent run at it, its game over. Add in Troy Chaplain who is a very good tall defender, and the small guys, and it is a very good defence at stopping sides from scoring once they're in the attacking zone. So yes, I bet right here that they will have the best defence by points against in 2016.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Nope, nope, nope. Disagree with you here Cam. I'm far more bullish on your boys. I've got them finishing 4th, possibly making the GF with a prelim almost certain. Why? They have a sound game-plan. This is critical and something they can build on this year well. They have the weapons - albeit some are loose-canons! They control the ball very very well and play good solid tempo football, which is critical against teams like the Hawks. Their defence is first-rate, which will keep them in most games, much like Freo. Where they are better than Freo in my opinion is width. They play width very well, which is something most teams don't. They cut off the angles and man-up on marks very well, which disrupts teams like the Hawks' ability to move fast-ball into open space uncontested in the air. This is not easy to drill or replicate and I think the Tiges have it in spades! 4th place finish. Let's hope for everyones sanity this doesn't occur because can you imagine the pressure on Hardwick when he gets pumped by my boys in the first week of the finals? Damn..going out in straight sets would be like having the Grim Reaper standing over you surely...
Cameron Rose
Expert
In my opinion that kick from Houli against Freo (to Lambert I think) was on. He just took too long to pull the trigger. By the time he did, it wasn't the right option any more.
Gecko
Guest
Gotta say I agree with Milo re Chaplin, Houli, and Grigg. Their disposal is fine in medium pressure games but when real pressure is applied... That also applies to Batchelor, Grimes, Yarran and Conca. They'll all have to rely on handball, and that comes unstuck as soon as the run stops. Compare the Hawks' kicking prowess in big games with the Tigers. The Tigers are still very fragile under pressure.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Honestly if you have been looking at Richmond for any length of time, you will know Houli is a great runner and delivers well when the pressure is off. but put it on, and its a completely different story. This has been going on for years. As for last year it looks as tho he followed Chaplin's instruction.
Bergasms
Guest
Regarding Jack v Adelaide. Talia didn't keep him to a goal on talent alone. I was sitting about 4 spots in from the bench and he came to the sideline complaining about his back after a pretty bad marking attempt I think at the start of the second. The problem was we had already used the sub for grimes so he was told to grin and bare it. He struggled to do anything for the rest of the game and it wasn't solely due to Talia (Who don't get me wrong, is a great backman). The players were under the weather, which didn't help (deledio didn't even make the trip), but I think the biggest issue on the day is the one you hit on in the last point you make. Jacobs killed it, because Hampson rucked and he was terrible. I don't think he won a hitout all day, and managed something like 2 marks for the game. The crows got first use pretty much every time, Jacobs did useful work over the ground, and the backline couldn't cope with it. Losing grimes didn't help that. The only reason it looked as good as it did was tex decided to kick points instead of goals.
Bergasms
Guest
Feels like you've defined Houli from a single well known incident from last year, bit harsh.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks CT. I'm certain they'll give Townsend first bit in the 22. Interesting to see what he makes of it. I'm with you on Astbury and Griffiths. I've long said they'll never make it. It's crunch time this year. Hope I'm wrong. Agree with those hopes for improvement. Ellis could be special, but I was disappointed he was in the two's rather than playing against Port the other night.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I know Chaplin was maligned at Port, Brendon and Milo, and he's had his detractors at Richmond, but he's been a solid to very good contributor. He hasn't stuffed up any more or less than the next player. He can make the odd big howler, but he has made us a better team overall, albeit starting from a low base. I don't know if I can call Cotchin a spud, but you're right about the set shots Brendon. Gee, he has missed some at crucial times. Has kicked the odd one, but misses more than he makes. I agree with Milo that he's not a captain. Agree with mental issues, but it's as much the media building them up to tear them down as it is the rabid fan base. We are a passionate bunch! I can see those changes happening in the eight, for sure.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Jax. I can think of eight current AFL coaches I'd have ahead of Hardwick. I don't know that there's a better replacement out there, and I don't think he necessarily deserves the chop, but I don't see him coaching a premiership. I think he's good, but lacks gravitas and inspiration I believe.