Just over six months ago, Hawthorn lifted the AFL premiership in emphatic style.
They had to travel to Perth twice during their 2015 finals campaign before winning the grand final against the West Coast Eagles by 46 points.
However, Hawthorn are a side that you can cross out as grand final winners this year and here are the reasons why.
1930
History says that Hawthorn cannot win. 1930 was the last time a club, Collingwood, won four premierships in a row. The last club that won three in a row was Brisbane but even with champions such as Michael Voss, Simon Black, Johnathan Brown, Jason Akermanis and Nigel Lappin could not get past Port Adelaide in 2004 to win four in a row.
Do not also forget that Hawthorn played in the grand final in 2012, losing to Sydney in a game where they led for substantial periods in the last quarter. For Hawthorn to even make five grand finals in a row in a salary capped environment would be extraordinary.
Brian Lake
There is something that the overwhelming majority of premiership sides have all had and that was quality defenders. The Hawks brought Brian Lake in after losing the 2012 grand final to Sydney, but he retired following the 2015 premiership.
Josh Gibson and James Frawley are great players but can they play that negative defender role on the opposition’s key forward? Ryan Schoenmakers played in his first premiership last year predominately as a forward but he is far from proven in playing in that key defender role.
Ageing superstars
Time and tide wait for no man. Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge are future AFL Hall of Famers. They play at a consistent high standard without fail. However, Mitchell is now 33 and Hodge is 31 and they are due to have an injury or decline in form (or both).
Gibson and Shaun Burgoyne are both over 30 and Jordan Lewis will turn 30 this year. Jarryd Roughead’s injury will be difficult to cover and expectations of what he can achieve in the latter half of the year must be tempered. Matthew Suckling was lost under free agency and David Hale retired and although these two players are not significant losses in the scheme of things, they have to be covered.
Brendan Bolton, Luke Beveridge and Adam Simpson
Although there is a salary cap in place, it seems easier to keep the playing group together than it is the coaching panel. With clubs trying to replicate Hawthorn’s success, Alastair Clarkson has now lost three assistants to senior coaching positions in recent times.
Port Adelaide lost Phil Walsh and Alan Richardson to senior coaching positions last season and that cannot be underestimated for the poor season Port had last year. That said, the Hawthorn assistant coaching panel looks sound with Brett Ratten still there and the other assistants having been in the Hawthorn system for a number of years, albeit with less responsibility.
Conclusion
The betting agencies disagree, with Hawthorn placed as the current flag favourite at $4. They have the best coach and the core nucleus of their side is still intact.
However, premierships are not an easy thing to win, just ask St Kilda. Although Hawthorn will go deep into September, mark my words it will not be Hodge and Clarkson lifting the AFL premiership in 2016.
Don Freo
Guest
No different to other clubs. Freo has regularly had 5 to 8 first picked players out for the past 3 years. Gold Coast, West Coast, Melbourne, Crows... Just breathe deeply, Hawks...and get on with it.
Shannon Russell
Roar Guru
Have the Hawks ever had as many injuries to best-22 players as they do right now? Brad Hill has gone down today, which is another one. They're an incredible unit, but this very well could be the year they fall. Not that it matters though, they have the admiration of respect of everyone (or at least they should). Four flags in eight years is phenomenal. The next five wooden spoons couldn't dent that legacy.
Tom
Guest
WC will fall based on what exactly?? and Port? please they will be lucky to advance past the 2nd week of finals.
The Original Buzz
Roar Rookie
My money is on the two WA teams. At least one, if not both, will be there on the big day. 5 Grand Finals in a row is a big task for any team, although it is not impossible and the good teams , like Hawthorn tend to rise to the challenge. I think not this time though.
Don Freo
Guest
Is there going to be a time when there is no football? Nnoooooo...!!
curley
Guest
There's a premiership factory then there are 17 other clubs looking for the key.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
WC will fall, Port is who they need to be looking over there shoulder at .
Brendon the 1st
Guest
At least he wrote an article, rather than just criticised one.
EddyJ
Guest
Of course, Hawthorn can win the premiership in 2016 – all teams start on equal footing, but Hawthorn are in a better position to win again. Firstly, it's unusual for a team with a percentage of 158% or over to drop off significantly – all teams from that position have reached the top four in the following season (West Coast 1992 - premiers, Essendon 2001 - runner-up, Geelong 2009 - premiers, Collingwood 2012 - third). Since 1987, all teams with a percentage of over 150 in a season, have made top four in the following season, except for Hawthorn in 1990, when they finished fifth, with a percentage of 120%. Historically, these are good signs for Hawthorn. They have a very similar team to 2015, and in the past two grand finals, they have shown how superior they are – smashings of Sydney, and then West Coast. Of course, this is all in the past, and they'd have to have form, good injury management and some luck (just like all other teams) to be the premiers again. And all relative to how other teams perform during the season. But, Hawthorn are a well rounded and even team, highly skillful and very brutual. Premierships just don't happen, but Hawthorn are very well positioned to win again.
New York Hawk
Guest
Good point. I would be loathe to write anyone off this early, or get on board anyone this early. My thoughts are that: 1. Picking one team that who won't win an 18 team comp is meaningless 2. The four-in-a-row argument is meaningless, as they have already won three. So it is only about this year, not about the prior three. 3. Great quote in one of the papers - "Age is having a tough time keeping up with Sam Mitchell" - Gold. My guess is 10 teams could win, pending some luck. We don't have the depth we used to and I see that as our biggest challenge. We had payers who couldn't get a game at Hawthorn that would be walk-up starts at other clubs. Not sure that is the case any more. In any case, I will be hoping we win the flag and hear Eddie Maguire argue why the 1930 Pies team were superior....
jax
Guest
Sure, and any coach would say the same thing but that doesn't mean that it is good example to use. It's just an isolated one.
andyl12
Guest
Yes it is viable. Because Ross Lyon's motto has been "any opponent, any time, any place."
Oliver Bryant
Roar Rookie
You can't use Tasmania as an example against a WA team, to travel that far takes over 5 hours in only plane time, not taking into account waiting around and finding a hotel. Yes Hawthorn has always beaten Freo when it counts, but I do not believe that the Tasmania example is viable for that type of argument.
jax
Guest
Why does anyone that has anything negative to say about your team have to be labelled as 'jealous'? Anyone would want three flags and many might even be jealous but most people can put that to the side and be objective when commenting, me included. Maybe this author is jealous but you seem to think everyone is which is hogwash. Labelling and categorising any large groups of people into one big box is one of the more dangerous, ignorant and idiotic things anyone can do, it's very common however as that is how people have been conditioned to respond. Far too many people do it these days without even realising it or batting an eyelid. It's the type of thing that a child might say but even then there is no excuse for it. Cut it out Andy and rebut the piece line by line before throwing the labels around.
jax
Guest
Yep, they are the clear favourites from mine.
jax
Guest
Agreed
jax
Guest
Freo isn't the team that you need to worry about. WC is. If they meet WC in a prelim at Subi the Hawks are out. If they play anyone else they can win the flag.
jax
Guest
You're mad to write them off. 1930 - VFL records can be matched, never say never. Lake - Clarko may adopt some of Simmo's web and he'd be better placed than anyone to understand it and implement it. Ageing Stars - Mitchell racked up 43 possessions in a NAB game and doesn't look like dropping off and Hogde will lead and lift as needed. Hawks have 5 or more captains if the truth be told, incredible depth of leadership. They will drop off soon enough but they have another campaign in them. Lost coaches - they've covered the losses very well so far. Hopefully they come to Perth to play WC in a prelim because if both teams are fit and firing WC will knock them out. If they play someone else they might just make another GF and then anything can happen on their home deck. The Hawks are the only team that can win it from outside of the Top 4 and they might need to this year. If you don't want the Hawks to win the flag this year pray for a WC v Hawks prelim at Subi, it might your only chance.
Dean
Guest
The thing is with these predictions they have come every year for the past couple of years. Eventually someone has to be right. It will be extremely hard for the Hawks to win again after such a tremendous effort these past 4 years. The slide is inevitable but will it be this year? The current Hawks team has some of the very best players to ever play for the team and it's been a privilege to witness.
Luke
Guest
Their depth is unbelievable, the Box Hill team have played in the last 3 VFL grand finals and they have ready made replacements for Lake and lots of midfield depth. I fancy the WCE this year, but I think the Hawks will be around the mark when it counts