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Just over six months ago, Hawthorn lifted the AFL premiership in emphatic style.
They had to travel to Perth twice during their 2015 finals campaign before winning the grand final against the West Coast Eagles by 46 points.
However, Hawthorn are a side that you can cross out as grand final winners this year and here are the reasons why.
1930
History says that Hawthorn cannot win. 1930 was the last time a club, Collingwood, won four premierships in a row. The last club that won three in a row was Brisbane but even with champions such as Michael Voss, Simon Black, Johnathan Brown, Jason Akermanis and Nigel Lappin could not get past Port Adelaide in 2004 to win four in a row.
Do not also forget that Hawthorn played in the grand final in 2012, losing to Sydney in a game where they led for substantial periods in the last quarter. For Hawthorn to even make five grand finals in a row in a salary capped environment would be extraordinary.
Brian Lake
There is something that the overwhelming majority of premiership sides have all had and that was quality defenders. The Hawks brought Brian Lake in after losing the 2012 grand final to Sydney, but he retired following the 2015 premiership.
Josh Gibson and James Frawley are great players but can they play that negative defender role on the opposition’s key forward? Ryan Schoenmakers played in his first premiership last year predominately as a forward but he is far from proven in playing in that key defender role.
Ageing superstars
Time and tide wait for no man. Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge are future AFL Hall of Famers. They play at a consistent high standard without fail. However, Mitchell is now 33 and Hodge is 31 and they are due to have an injury or decline in form (or both).
Gibson and Shaun Burgoyne are both over 30 and Jordan Lewis will turn 30 this year. Jarryd Roughead’s injury will be difficult to cover and expectations of what he can achieve in the latter half of the year must be tempered. Matthew Suckling was lost under free agency and David Hale retired and although these two players are not significant losses in the scheme of things, they have to be covered.
Brendan Bolton, Luke Beveridge and Adam Simpson
Although there is a salary cap in place, it seems easier to keep the playing group together than it is the coaching panel. With clubs trying to replicate Hawthorn’s success, Alastair Clarkson has now lost three assistants to senior coaching positions in recent times.
Port Adelaide lost Phil Walsh and Alan Richardson to senior coaching positions last season and that cannot be underestimated for the poor season Port had last year. That said, the Hawthorn assistant coaching panel looks sound with Brett Ratten still there and the other assistants having been in the Hawthorn system for a number of years, albeit with less responsibility.
Conclusion
The betting agencies disagree, with Hawthorn placed as the current flag favourite at $4. They have the best coach and the core nucleus of their side is still intact.
However, premierships are not an easy thing to win, just ask St Kilda. Although Hawthorn will go deep into September, mark my words it will not be Hodge and Clarkson lifting the AFL premiership in 2016.
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