NRL Thursday Night forecast - Good Friday Edition

Welcome back to The Roar‘s NRL Thursday Night Forecast series – special Good Friday edition. With no game this evening, we will instead be previewing the marquee Good Friday game.

Tomorrow, of course sees a replay of one of the most contentious games of 2015.

With the Bulldogs leading by one point and time expiring James Graham chopped down Rabbitohs halfback Adam Reynolds as he attempted a field goal. The Rabbitohs converted the ensuing penalty but only after the Dogs lost their collective minds earning both Graham and David Klemmer contrary conduct charges.

Thankfully those events haven’t come up much in the lead up to this game.

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There are a lot of parallels between these two teams heading into this match.

Both teams were big winners in Round 1 and while the Rabbitohs enjoyed a similarly convincing win in Round 2, both teams struggled last weekend. Well-reputed forwards struggled to assert dominance and their halves failed to convert the field position they did have against two teams in the Eels and Dragons who played outstanding defence.

For the Bulldogs the game reiterated the concerns of many, including myself coming into the season about the first choice halves pairing of Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds.

Neither player was able to make any great impression behind a forward pack that was well beaten against Parramatta. After demolishing the Sea Eagles in Round 1 but only narrowly edging past Penrith in Round 2 and losing comfortably in Round 3 the form line for the Bulldogs is heading in the wrong direction and questions will persist about the two halves.

REMEMBER, EVERY NRL GAME IS LIVE ON FOXTEL THIS SEASON

Meanwhile, despite the loss on Sunday afternoon, it could be argued that the Rabbitohs are travelling much better than the Dogs. A loss in the monsoonal conditions at the SCG is entirely forgivable especially as the team was down to 15 men after injuries to Sam Burgess and Damian Cook.

Nevertheless there are some alarming signs for South Sydney with Cody Walker and Luke Keary providing a helpful reminder of just how critical for the team Adam Reynolds is.

Team Sheet

The first observation is that Paul Carter retains his place after successfully getting a downgrade at the judiciary. Carter has been among the Rabbitohs best forwards thus far and so this is a big win.

The second observation and more important one by order of magnitude is the absence of Sam Burgess from the Rabbitohs team. Thankfully Burgess has been cleared of serious injury after his sickening collision with Will Matthews on Sunday afternoon however in the short term his injury will hurt the team.

As I argued in my Rabbitohs season preview Burgess’s immense value to the team comes not only from his own statis but also because he acts as a force multiplier for his teammates.

With Burgess playing the best part of 80 minutes at an incredibly high level, it allows coach Michael Maguire to use more limited players such as Jason Clark and David Tyrell in shorter, more impactful stints.

With Burgess missing for at least the time being the pressure will be on those players, along with Sam’s brother George to not only cover for Sam’s absence but to do so while playing more minutes.

For the Bulldogs, Greg Eastwood returns who was a late withdrawal from the Friday night game against the Eels.

In Eastwood’s absence coach Des Hasler deployed a jumbo starting line-up utilising Sam Kasiano as the nominal lock in a middle unit featuring Dogzilla with Aidan Tolman and James Graham. Unfortunately the strategy was not effective as the team was unable to exert the sort of middle third dominance one would hope for with such an imposing starting line-up.

Overall the team looks more balanced with Eastwood starting the game with Kasiano and David Klemmer coming off the bench.

The other point of interest in the Bulldogs line-up is the continued presence of hooker Craig Garvey. While usual dummy half Michael Lichaa is far from a household name it has been abundantly clear just how much the Bulldogs relied on his crisp service. It is no good having a massive forward pack if they can’t connect with the dummy half and thus far Garvey has been unable to make that connection.

However the reality for the Dogs is that Garvey is their only genuine option at the position after 2015’s backup Damian Cook was allowed to leave for the Rabbitohs in the offseason.

What to watch for
Regular readers of the Thursday Forecast will know that this section usually contains at least one play diagram to show how teams use set plays to create scoring opportunities. Sadly neither the Bulldogs nor the Rabbitohs provided much in the way of highlight plays to analyse in Round 3.

With only one try each and neither coming from a particularly crisp play we will instead be looking at things that are going wrong for each team, rather than things that are going well, starting with Canterbury.

Two weeks ago when we previewed the Bulldogs v Panthers game we looked in detail at James Graham, the 106kg halfback. At his best Graham is an outstanding passer who adds an extra dimension to the Dogs attack, especially within the opposition twenty.

However, Graham isn’t the only front rower at the Bulldogs who seems to have a licence to pass. Both Aidan Tolman and Sam Kasiano also pass far more often than the average front rower.

While most front rowers will have somewhere in the range of ten to fourteen touches per game and run the ball on all but one or two of those, Graham, Kasiano and Tolman will regularly pass the ball half a dozen times or more. Graham and Tolman also touch the ball far more often than average prop with as many or 25 or 30 touches in a game.

But the question is just how effective is this approach? Certainly front rowers passing the ball, particularly close to the line, can work as a surprise tactic, forcing the defence to respect two or more runners.

However, it can be argued that the Dogs forwards, and Sam Kasiano in particular get too focussed on passing. Kasiano is listed at 195cm and 130kgs which makes him the largest human in the NRL and not surprisingly rather difficult to tackle.

Yet on Friday night against the Eels Kasiano ran the ball only seven times and passed just as many. In doing so he passed up a number of opportunities to run inside the opposition twenty where he had potential mismatches.

In the following freeze frame for example we can see Kasiano taking the ball as the first receiver from a scrum only 15 metres out and just to the right of the posts. With Kenny Edwards and David Gower in front of him and a full set up their sleeves it makes sense for Kasiano to hit the line as hard as possible, sucking in more defenders to create a potential overlap on the next play .

Instead Kasiano chose to pass two wide to Moses Mbye who was sweeping around from the left side. The pass itself could be called wobbly at best and by the time Mbye gathers it in the Eels have had plenty of time to slide across and swallow him up.

It is all well and good for Kasiano to look for the pass but in this instance, and several other times last week Kasiano was simply giving the ball to a player in a worse position than himself or a player not gifted with his colossal size.

When the Bulldogs are pouring down the middle of the field and getting quick play the balls the interplay between their forwards is a useful tactic. Sometimes however, good old fashioned power running can be far more effective and it will be fascinating to see if the Bulldogs revert to the power game more regularly tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, for the Rabbitohs one thing that was abundantly clear on Sunday afternoon against the Dragons was just how much they missed the outstanding kicking game of injured half Adam Reynolds.

In 2015 Reynolds was the second most prolific kicker in the game behind Ben Hunt. With 223 kicks for 6732m in only 18 appearances he made 374m with the boot per game from just over 12 kicks per game. Only Hunt’s colossal 448m per game from nearly 14 kicks per contest exceeded Reynolds.

Of course kicking for distance is only one element in having a strong overall kicking game, the ability to make the right kick close to the opposition line is just as important. Here again Reynolds is a top tier player. Already this season in just 58 minutes on the field Reynolds has recorded two try assists from kicks.

The first was a cross field kick that came down only a metre or two from the line and was spectacularly collected by second rower Paul Carter. The second was a delicate chip over the defence for right winger Alex Johnston, narrowly eluding a desperate leap from Roosters winger Joe Burgess.

Contrast this with the game on Sunday afternoon in which Cody Walker and Luke Keary repeatedly hoisted unthreatening bombs late in the second half as the team searched for a game winner.

Here we can see in graphic detail the difference in precision between Reynolds’ performance in week one and the late game struggles of Keary and Walker.

The key observation is the precision of Reynolds’ kicks. By placing them near the try line he ensures that his attacking player won’t have to do much after the catch or, if the ball goes loose, that it will more often than not spill into the in-goal area creating a second chance opportunity.

Of course neither of Reynolds’ kicks was a bomb and it is a lot easier to place a chip kick or a cross-field kick But all that does is reinforce the question: why are you hoisting bomb after bomb? Why not try something different?

To be fair, in wet conditions there is a certain logic to putting up the high ball challenging the defenders, but Dragons fullback Josh Dugan was largely up to the challenge only spilling one ball early in the game.

Moreover as the chart makes clear the bombs the Rabbitohs did put up were largely coming down a long way from the line making them far less threatening than a kick near the line.

In a game in which the two forward packs should, on recent form at least and notwithstanding the absence of Sam Burgess, be fairly well matched, the quality of each team’s kicking game could well be a critical factor. Walker and Keary will likely need to improve.

First try scorer tip – Moses Mbye

I can see it already: classic Bulldogs sweep play to the left, Tolman and Williams run through as decoys, Mbye gets the ball on Williams’ outside shoulder, throw the big dummy to Josh Morris and cuts back inside before clattering into Greg Inglis but just getting the ball down.

Or something like that.

Prediction – Bulldogs in a close one
This is a really tough game to predict after both teams were so disappointing in Round 3.

For the Bulldogs the big question is to what extent they can relocate their power game and whether or not Mbye and Reynolds can find the right balance as playmakers.

The Rabbitohs overall form line is stronger after two big wins and one loss in forgivable conditions but not having Sam Burgess takes a lot of punch out of their forward pack.

In the end I’m picking the Bulldogs narrowly because of the absence of Burgess. Without him I just don’t think the Rabbitohs have enough go forward to give Keary and Walker any chance.

Shoe in of the Week
We all know it’s coming: endless re-litigation of the James Graham and Adam Reynolds incident from last year.