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After capturing their first title in millennia in 2014, the Rabbitohs were largely disappointing in 2015. Can the return of one large, handsome Englishman reverse their fortunes in 2016?
2015 in review: Premiership hangover
If you look up ‘premiership hangover’ you’ll find a picture of the 2015 Rabbitohs. Unsurprisingly enough the team (and a lot of fans) reacted to the drought-breaking 2014 premiership by giving 2015 a protracted shrug.
While the team did finish with 13 wins to limp into the finals, they were swiftly eliminated by the Sharks. Throughout 2015 there was always a sense that the team had lost the menace they showed during their title run. However good news on that front because…
Off-season story: Big Sam is back
There is little doubt that when he left rugby league at the end of 2014 for a disappointing stint in the 15-man code that Sam Burgess was the best (non-hooker) forward in the game and the heart and soul of the premiership-winning team.
Burgess led the club in average metres gained (159.6) and tackles made (34.3) while playing the most minutes of any forward on the team (73.9). He also broke 73 tackles (only Jason Taumalolo had more among forwards) and had 58 offloads (second in the competition behind Corey Parker).
In summary: he’s pretty good at rugby league.
But despite these gargantuan direct contributions Burgess’s true value is as a force multiplier for his teammates. When you have a player, and particularly a forward, who can sustain that level of performance over such big minutes you’re also allowing lesser players to play fewer minutes at higher intensity.
Burgess’s work rate was noticeably missed in 2015 as players like Ben Lowe, Jason Clark and David Tyrell were pushed into more minutes and all struggled to deliver the sort of forward dominance the team had enjoyed in 2014.
Burgess’s return will give Michael Maguire considerably more flexibility to use his bench more effectively in addition to being simply amazing himself.
Roster management
2016 gains: Sam Burgess, Damian Cook, Dane Nielsen and Michael Oldfield.
2016 losses: Dylan Walker, Chris McQueen, Issac Luke, Tim Grant and Glenn Stewart.
Burgess is the big acquisition but Damian Cook is also looming as a key contributor. While the club had originally earmarked Cameron McInnes to replace Issac Luke, McInnes did not impress in first grade last season and Cook looked the more impressive player in Saturday’s Charity Shield.
Meanwhile, Dane Nielsen and Michael Oldfield have also been added to the squad to add depth to an outside back corps that is probably, Greg Inglis aside, the weakest element of the team.
On the other side of the recruitment and retention ledger, the club has offloaded three players – Glenn Stewart, Tim Grant and Chris McQueen who were disappointing in 2015.
The deal to bring in Stewart always smacked of a desperation move to acquire a big-name player without much regard to the evidence of Stewart’s declining production and increasing injuries. For his part McQueen struggled with additional minutes and responsibility in 2015 and will look to restart his career on the Gold Coast.
Losing Luke is a blow. However, while on the field he is irreplaceable – though Cook has shown the pace and running instinct to perhaps be a poor man’s version of Luke – there were persistent rumours that he and Maguire did not get along and player-coach feuds generally end badly (for reference see: Farah, Robbie).
Dylan Walker is an interesting case. After an outstanding 2014 in which he recorded 12 tries but also 12 try assists, 15 line breaks and 12 line-break assists to go with 106.5 metres per game on nearly 14 carries, his stats, and particularly his playmaking, cratered in 2015 with only four try assists and four line-break assists.
Likely line-up
1. Greg Inglis
2. Alex Johnston
3. Bryson Goodwin
4. Kirsome Au’ava
5. Aaron Gray
6. Luke Keary
7. Adam Reynolds
8. George Burgess
9. Damian Cook
10. David Tyrell
11. Kyle Turner
12. John Sutton
13. Sam Burgess
14. Tom Burgess
15. Paul Carter
16. Chris Grevsmuhl
17. Jason Clark
In the backline I have opted for the default five players from last season but acknowledge that either Oldfield or Nielsen could easily snag a spot. While Inglis is Inglis and Johnston has shown plenty of potential none of the other three backs are untouchable.
Despite the recent acrimony at a pre-season function between Luke Keary and the old man owner with the raspy voice it seems likely that Keary will at the very least begin the season alongside Adam Reynolds in the halves. However the sheer volume of coverage about the 26-year-old ‘up and comer’ Cody Walker suggests some at the club would like to see Keary moved aside.
With Big Sam’s return the forward pack looks far more balanced than 2015. In this line-up I have placed Tom Burgess on the bench in the expectation that he would substitute in and out for his brothers at various stages to ensure there is always two of them on the field. However, I can also easily envisage a scenario where they start all three brothers and try to overwhelm the opposition.
Similarly, in the back row I can easily imagine Chris Grevsmuhl – who was excellent in 2015 – starting on the left edge with former captain John Sutton to be introduced off the bench as a wild card.
Paul Carter, who joined mid-way through last season, is a solid acquisition and will be even better when he can hold onto the ball, something he struggled with during the Charity Shield.
Overall this is a stronger pack than 2015 but still not quite as strong as the premiership-winning team which had McQueen during his apex (or not his apex, hope Titans fans) and Ben Te’o who brought raw aggression that players like Kyle Turner cannot replicate.
Depth remains a concern as money squandered on players like Grant and Stewart in 2015 now leaves the cupboard bare and should any of the Burgess brothers miss significant time the club will struggle to find adequate replacements.
Player to watch: Greg Inglis
Inglis is among the most frustrating players to watch in the game. When at his best he makes the game look effortless but there are just as many occasions when he seems disengaged. Souths fans, while no doubt appreciative of the good days, must surely wish they could find a magic switch to activate GOANNA mode every game.
However he is still the most physically gifted fullback in the game with an unparalleled combination of imposing size and truly remarkable skill. And he is still barely 29 years old. Which is why Inglis will be fascinating to watch this year.
Despite being contracted to South Sydney for 2016 and 2017 there is already abundant reckless speculation and innuendo that he is likely to move to the Broncos in 2018.
Inglis has already been asked about these rumours and unsurprisingly denied them but if the team starts badly you can expect them to continue all season long.
Predicted finish: Make the eight
Recognising that this entire preview already reads like Sam Burgess fan fiction I’m still prepared to say that without Burgess’s return I had pencilled the Rabbitohs in for a fringe of the eight finish.
However with Burgess back in the fold I’m happy to improve that rating to the Rabbitohs making the eight. Burgess revolutionises (or more accurately re-revolutionises) the entire forward pack and there is still ample quality in the halves and backline to capitalise on the sort of forward dominance that a three-Burgi pack can be expected to deliver.
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