It’s harder to know what would be causing the most angst: that The Crowd are now not even as good as Diggercane, or that Paddy is again as bad as me.
It was a bit of a rough one last week, tipping wise, with a couple of unanimous tips coming undone in spectacular fashion, and the Kings putting in their best performance of the season to date to notch their first win of 2016, sweeping aside the Sunwolves in the process.
This week, strangely, we have three Australian teams taking a break on the same weekend, right at the time when arguments are taking place about the relative strengths or weaknesses of the local conference. Draws are complicated beasts to sort out, but this seems like the sort of thing that should be avoided.
Maybe we should introduce bye weeks into the tipping panel? Writing that idea down, actually…
Digger’s win last week sees him carry the honour this week, while we’re back to Harry for this week’s Big Super Rugby Question.
EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL
Last Week: Digger 5; Harry, Brett and The Crowd 4; Paddy 3.
Diggercane: “This week seems so straightforward that it makes me incredibly nervous.
“Canes by plenty. Chiefs are too red hot to ignore, while the Crusade will not be impeded by the Force.
“Stormers should make hotdogs of the dawgs while the Highlanders should have too much for the Reds.
“I am favouring the Lions’ more ambitious play over the Sharks and the Bulls will account for the Kings’ winning streak.”
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Bulls.
Harry Jones: “First, the 100 per cent take-it-to-the-bank picks: the Stormers will maul the Sunwolves in Cape Town, and the Reds will fail to quell the Highlanders’ Jacobite assault.
“Second, the picks I’m sure enough to bet the bike on: the Chiefs will win again, this time at home, with their smirking hair-on-fire points machine, and the Crusaders’ pack will roll over the feckless Force.
“Finally, the games I’d wager a buck on. The Bulls’ backline speed will compensate for their young and feeble forwards. The Canes should squeak past the powerful but unhappy Jags. And the Sharks and Lions will go to war with my little voice telling me to go with the Lions.”
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Bulls.
Brett McKay: It does indeed seem like an easy round, and that does indeed make me nervous.
But here’s something that may not have ever happened in the short history of the tipping panel: no-one’s picked an Australian side. Sentiment isn’t enough to sway me, for the record, but checking back over the panel picks last year, neither Digger, Paddy, or myself went without picking an Australian team during the rounds.
The first five games pretty much pick themselves, and I can’t imagine there will be any small majorities in any of The Crowd picks, either.
The Sharks have maintained their Africa 2 conference lead, but I think they’ve become increasingly underwhelming in recent weeks. The Lions, on the other hand, have proved they can run with the best teams in the competition, and I think they’ll confirm they’re actually the best team in their conference this weekend.
And in something of an upset, I think the Kings can beat the Bulls. As Harry mentioned, the Bulls’ pack is lacking in several departments, and this has been the big avenue of improvement for the Kings in the last fortnight. And yes, I do note the irony of this tip: if I’m right, then the Kings will be the first expansion side with two wins in 2016.
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Kings.
Paddy Effeney: “It’s a relatively simple round until you get to Sharks versus Lions. Most teams pick themselves, and the men from Durban get the home team nod from me.
“May I ask why three Aussie teams get a bye in one week? Seems a rather odd decision?”
Brett’s note: It’s a very good question…
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Sharks, Bulls.
The Big Super Rugby Question (from Harry): Can the loser this week in Wellington still make it into the playoffs? Are the disappointing Jaguares and the misfiring Hurricanes at the must-not-lose point already?
Harry: “I say that the New Zealand Conference and the Australasian Group is too competitive for the Canes to drop this game in the Cake Tin. I don’t know if four New Zealand teams will make it, but the teams from Hamilton, Christchurch, and Dunedin don’t look like fading soon.
“So it’s do-or-die time for the home team and I say that’s true for the visitors, too, because their morale is plummeting.”
Digger: “Yes, both sides are disappointing, and cannot afford another loss. The Jaguares have already dropped too many while the Hurricanes risk falling well behind the pace in their own conference.
“With their overseas portion to come, they cannot afford any home losses and even more so after rivals the Chiefs and Crusaders have been on successful tours.”
Paddy: “Whether or not either side can afford another loss, one will be dealt this weekend. My view is the Jaguares can wipe this season – build from here.
“The Canes are OK. Teams have come back from worse.”
Brett: The Hurricanes can lose this weekend, but the Jaguares can’t. Both teams have played five games in the first six rounds, but the Canes have won three to the Jags’ one. And if there’s already concern about the Waratahs making the playoffs from here with a 2-3 record, then the Jaguares with 1-4 are gone already. The Hurricanes are fine; both the Highlanders and Waratahs were 3-2 after their first five games.
Both teams have a string of home games to come, too – and we know from 2015 that teams get better at home the further the season goes on. And while both teams also have a tricky African tour to come before the end of May, the Jaguares have an even trickier New Zealand and Japan tour to finish currently.
The shame in this is that like a lot of people, I thought the Jaguares would give the playoffs a serious nudge. They’ll have to become the most disciplined, least butter-fingered, stiffest-defending, clearest decision-making team in the competition from here for that to happen now.
The summary
The Crowd’s tips for Round 7:
95% Chiefs
88% Crusaders
93% Stormers
89% Hurricanes
88% Highlanders
53% Lions
86% Bulls
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Oh Chook... it wasn't meant to be subtle... *S*
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
ThugbyFan ... hey, hey, steady up chappie...this is a family opinion site ... ".. went down faster than Linda Lovelace.." ....*gulps* Oops, probably wrong phrase! ... As for the Reds v Highlanders, unfortunately Lima Sopoaga has been passed fit to play but they have still lost Edmonds and Ben Smith.. The loss of Edmonds might make the scrum battle very interesting but have the Reds sufficient fire power in the backs to capitalise? ... I think less chance of an upset with Sopoaga steadying the ship but you never know.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Just as an aside, the tipsters get a bonus point for picking the Powerplay, which generally is a given (mostly pick the Chiefs or whoever is playing the Sumo Boys). Can I suggest that anyone who dares and successfully selects a draw should also receive a bonus point. Those 50-50% calls such as Shawks v Loins for this weekend, rather than toss a coin, would not the brave (or foolish) feel more towards picking a draw if there was a bonus reward?
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
They can only improve Allanthus. Ever sat in the stands and the only noise for about 65 minutes is 20,000 people either sighing as the home team (Tahs) drop another ball or some schoolboy error or the crowd booing the referee as the home side gives out another ridiculous penalty. Everytime someone made a break and the Tahs camped on the Rebel's line, the ref would whistle another breakdown penalty, mostly a Tahs player not releasing the ball. You might get caught once for that in a match, but honestly I can recall that at least 3 times in the 1st half alone. Seriously I thought I had gone back in time and was watching a Sydney subs 2nd Division match. Very disappointing.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Nice tips RT, the one good thing of this weekend is there won't be too much Tragic Rugby for the Australian conference fans (geddit??). I imagine that you will be "down the road" in Hamilton cheering on the Blues for an upset? But don't the Chiefs look fearsome with the return of even more big guns such as B.Retallick. Any comment on how them "pesky" Chiefs steal ball so often and quickly? Sadly most of the tipsters zoomed up the ladder last week (followers of NZ sides) while we Aussie fans went down faster than Linda Lovelace. Pulls out a skull and begins the "Hamlet" soliliquy --- "To be a Tahs fan, or not to be: that is the question: Whether ’tis nobler to allow my mind to suffer ......... Or to take arms against a sea of troubles called AB, And by opposing end them?" Maybe I should switch over and watch the Hong Kong 7's. At least in that format the Aussie side wins sometimes. :( I'll agree with your tips except the 'Landers to slip on your banana skin and Reds to win their 1st match in a shock(er). Mind you I would be far more confident if K.Hunt was at #12.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Brett has finally deserted the Sumo Boys?
DanFan
Guest
I do.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Tragic... a not so subtle dig :) Tell you what though... if the other Blue wearing team 'suddenly' find form and give it to the Chefs I just might start throwing my toys outta the cot! And without stating the bleedin' obvious... the Shorks and Lions game will be very interesting, defining even. Good luck with ya tipping old man!
Old Bugger
Guest
I doff my cap mate. How can I ever think to argue against such eloquence....."Tana's Marauders" - luv it but, I was thinking more along the lines of "Tana's Tough Team" that is until, my missus pointed out that a typo error could quite easily transform that title into "Tana's Touch Team".....well, what could I say except OK, let's stick with your suggestion.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Highlander, an update, Lima is in Ben Smith definitely out.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
With your Tahs resting up sipping on their lattes mate... who you going to tear your hair out over this weekend?
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
I'm very sensible CUW, I read ONLY what I want to read... *S*
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Of course OB, Chiefs have been weakened with 'lumbering' Brodie Retallick and the 'biggest play in NZ', Dominic Bird in the run on side and you can sense Dave Rennie starting to think by have TKB on the bench... then with Kaino still out and big Tuipolotu out with his broken mitt, the chance for Steven Luatua and Josh Bekhuis to step up will be there, so your 'average second row' run on replacements might be in for a long day ... I wonder how the Chiefs are going to manage the pace of the Blues backline ... Cruden will be mesmerised by the fleetness of foot of Iahia West, inspired because of my criticism of him and Mac will not relish Rene running at him all night, it might even be enough to wipe the smile from his face... Reiko and Tevita have pace to burn, never mind James Lowe *S* If your boys try the 'ole fancy slight of the hand stuff, you can be sure that Tana's Marauder's will be ready, it will play into the hands of the boys from up north. As for my prediction for this game ... err I'll let you know about 9 pm NZDT tonight .. *smiling*
Old Bugger
Guest
heehee RT......I like it when you say pesky and cursed, in the same blog. You should do it more often mate.....btw, all the best aye.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Thanks CUW, don't worry, the Blues will take Jamie Nutbrown outta the equation with their equally decisive counter attacking ... all he needs to do is keep an eye on what those pesky Chiefs forwards are doing in snaffling ball that should be the Blues possession .. *S* And yes, I don't mind having a little flutter on 'these things' ... just to get my frustration levels up a little! (as the cursed Tahs did for me last weekend) ...
Not Bothered
Guest
I dont like byes. Coaches should be made to organise their squads to rest players.
Not Bothered
Guest
Julian handled the bus. Hes given himself some 'love handles' so...
IceBlue
Roar Pro
I'll confess to picking the Force. As Allanthus and Kev have noted, Perth is a traditional banana skin for the Crusaders. After a lot of travel and some close results, this issue could continue Besides, the Force have to win a couple of games, and have an excellent record this season when playing against teams wearing red. Nobody quote me.
CUW
Guest
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Rohan Janse Van Rensburg, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith Replacements: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Ruan Ackermann, 20 Cyle Brink, 21 Faf De Klerk, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Jaco Van Der Walt
CUW
Guest
Sharks: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Joe Pietersen, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Franco Marais, 1 Tendai Mtawarira (c) Replacements: 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Michael Claassens, 22 Garth April, 23 Odwa Ndungane