What a moment. The euphoria that erupted around the Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium in Tokyo as barnstorming centre Harumichi Tatekawa barged over on time to secure the Sunwolves’ first-ever Super Rugby win was nothing compared to…
…the euphoria that erupted around McSport HQ when after three previous failed attempts, those bloody beautiful little Moondogs had finally earned me a point. What a moment, indeed.
Logically, this week it’s all about me, after I awarded myself the honour on a countback, as well as putting this week’s Big Super Rugby Question out there as well.
Last Week: Brett, Harry, and The Crowd 6; Digger and Paddy 5.
Brett McKay: So then, the top of the text pile. I can see my house from here…
The Sharks might have had their moment on tour last weekend under the roof, and the Chiefs are pretty protective of their newish turf in New Plymouth still, so that tip feels easy.
The blue Bulls look like they’re currently jacked up on Red Bull, the way they’re playing with pace and throwing it around like no Bulls side before them. That and the Force cannot get Jono Lance back on the field soon enough. So that one’s easy too.
The next two are harder. I’m going with the Rebels because they just have to win. Just have to. If they don’t, it’s red pen time for them.
The Highlanders in the deep south will be stung by last week’s Sharknado, and I worry for the Brumbies without the best player, Joe Tomane, and potentially without their second-best player, Stephen Moore. But they similarly have to win, too, so if picking against them is what it takes, then I’m happy to be proved wrong.
Reds, Lions, Stormers all seem easy too. I’ll be interested to see how the Waratahs’ minimal breakdown copes with the Stormers’ battery-company-bunny forwards at Newlands.
And the Jaguares, in Buenos Aires, against the Kings, should be the easiest tip of the season. But it’s just not. I’ll still tip them, just, but nothing would surprise me in this game.
EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL
Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Rebels, Highlanders, Reds, Lions, Stormers, Jaguares.
Harry Jones: “Congratulations on persisting with the Sunny Side Up Wolves every week until they won against the only team with more knocks than a knock-knock joke, Brett.
“The Chiefs have scored 30 more tries than the Sharks; that margin will probably continue. The Bulls are notoriously bad travellers, but the Force just don’t seem to have the horses to run with these Bulls.
“The Highlanders and the Brumbies may stage a classic boxer versus brawler bout, and it’s a tough one to handicap, but I’ll take the home side at Invercargill.
“The Blues to nip the Rebels by a nose at Eden Park and trigger a slow descent for the visitors.
“The Reds’ travel schedule back to Brisbane can’t help them, but I will back them to win a six-tries-to-three match against the matador defence of the tackle-Free State.
“The Lions have lost 4-5 key forwards; I’ll back the Hurricanes in a playoff preview.
“The Stormers might have the youngest team in the competition, and barely have a captain, but their ‘eighty minutes of hell’ approach should work at Newlands against a mercurial Tahs squad. Finally, the Jaguares will notch their second win, against a Kings team without a playmaker.”
Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Blues, Reds, Hurricanes, Stormers, Jaguares.
Diggercane: “’Canes by plenty.
“The Chiefs should have too many points for a Sharks team on tour while I feel the same for an expansive Bulls team on their first week of touring over a disappointing Force.
“I am backing the Highlanders to get over the Brumbies at home, given the Brumbies lack of form and disruptions, while I think the Blues will be too much for the Rebellion at Eden Park.
“Despite all the recent travel, I feel the Reds may have too much size in the backs for the Cheetahs to deal with and I am yet to be convinced the Waratahs have turned any corners so the hometown Storm for me.
“Surely the Jaguares here at home over the Kings, but then I said that last week. Oh well, Jaguares it is.”
Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Blues, Reds, Hurricanes, Stormers, Jaguares.
Paddy Effeney: “It’s time a number of teams started winning.
“The Jaguares are my number one when it comes to this – quite simply losing to the Sunwolves was unacceptable and they need to bounce back. The Highlanders are also due a win after disappointing last weekend against the Sharks.
“The rest of the games are bloody tough to tip I have to say. No easy games this week. I’ve gone with the flip a coin, then mostly pick the home team method for my tipping.”
Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions, Stormers, Jaguares.
The BIG Super Rugby Question: Is the Australian conference a genuine three-way battle again, or has the Brumbies’ loss just given the Rebels and Waratahs false hope? (from Brett)
Harry: “The Brumbies’ recent losses have allowed the Rebels to nose ahead; the Waratahs’ renaissance has poised them in striking distance with a game in hand. But the Brumbies hold more face cards.
“First, comparing the Brumbies’ stretch run to the Rebels: they both play three mutual opponents (relatively unscary tilts against the Reds, Blues, and Force), but I would favour the Brumbies against the Blues, whilst I am tipping the Aucklanders against the Melbourners this weekend. All in all, I see the Brumbies winning five of their remaining seven games (including the Melbourne derby), but the Rebels only winning two of their final seven.
“So, for me, it’s a Tah-Brumby duel down the stretch, with the Sydney lads favoured in at least four of their last eight, and a toss-up in a couple. The Tahs’ four toughest matches feature the Stormers, the Crusaders, Chiefs, and the Hurricanes. The latter could prove to be critical for Hooper and his boys, if they are going to muster enough bonus points and log wins to catch the well-settled Brumbies.”
Paddy: “The Aussie conference is a dogfight, and only one hound is going to make it out alive.
“It’s as open as they come; write off no one, particularly not the Waratahs who’ve been sleeping all year but are very capable of stringing wins together.”
Digger: “This is difficult to really pinpoint. I am unconvinced the Rebels can beat top sides so I would find them hard to back right now, while the Waratahs still have the majority of the NZ sides to face and have only begun their tour. A promising result last week, but yet to be seen whether the same application can be made against stronger opposition.
“Given their roster, I would still back the Brumbies from here, but I cannot say it confidently. Two comprehensive results at home against two of the more favoured teams at this point is not confidence building but at least in their favour they have already defeated their closest Australian rivals three times with only one game remaining against the Rebels and the majority of the New Zealand sides are behind them along with their overseas venture. The Brumbies look the best placed from here but if the off-field distractions continue, who really knows?”
Brett: I think the uncertainty in everyone’s reasoning here today means that it probably is a three-way race again. That might not necessarily be the case after this weekend, but equally, it could be further underlined.
In reality, all three teams need to win this weekend. And the Waratahs have a game in hand over the Brumbies and Rebels, which could work in their favour. The Brumbies and Rebels taking points off each other in a fortnight is another bonus.
They’ll need to go into the June break with a similar separation as the current five points:
• For the Rebels, that next five rounds are: Blues away, bye, Brumbies, Chiefs away, and the Force.
• For the Brumbies, it’s Highlanders away, Bulls, Rebels away, bye, Sunwolves.
• And for the Waratahs, it’s: Stormers away, Cheetahs, Bulls, Crusaders away, and the Chiefs.
Three wins each over the next five rounds would see the status quo remain. But if the ‘Tahs snuck a win against one of the NZ sides, then the three teams would be level.
For now at least, I think it’s suddenly very open. But the caveat on that is that ‘form’ can be a week-to-week proposition at the moment, and none of the three teams can afford to drop games for the next little while if they have any designs on playing finals footy.
The Summary
Now over to you guys…
Make your selection in each of the eight Round 10 games below, and we’ll collate all the votes and publish the results after 2pm AEDT on Friday afternoon…
ThugbyFan
Guest
Beware RT, I just wrote a letter to the Russian and Chinese Olympic teams asking for any spare tipping steroids. Will come home like the proverbial express train. Good luck to the Blues, I see them as real improvers; you wonder where they would be on the SR table if they changed their name to East Bondi Blues and were in the Australian conference. :)
John Galloway
Roar Rookie
Hi Guys, You do a great job thx. The Crowd results are not yet posted (for super rugby). It is way after the 2pm publishing time. Are they close? John
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Ha, ThugbyFan, let me say this in your tipping the Blues this week ... we are neither afraid of the Rebels challenge, nor the spell you think you might have cast. The challenge from the top ranked Australian side against our poor Blues side languishing on the bottom of the NZ Conference (we should be massive underdogs) will be met by Tana's Marauders and repelled, boosted by the knowledge that the sensei of sports reporters Brett McKay neutralised any jinx you might have cast by tipping against the Blues. He was the same man who inexplicably tipped the Sunwolves for their first victory... who would have thought! Regarding the tipping fortunes of yours truly, let me tell you I'm like a sprinting thoroughbred in a 3,200 metre race so have no fear! I'll be looking got the oxygen mask well before we enter the finishing straight.
Digby
Roar Guru
Not hungry enough. Its very windy.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
I was going to tip the Tahs (I know, desperate Tahs fans have NO logic!) until I saw this team. It appears they expect Dean Mumm to last the full 80 minutes and still be effective for the last 10 minutes as there is no reserve flanker. And I expect Martians to land in my back yard tomorrow morning singing " We are the Champions". It looks a really weak Tahs effort at the breakdowns, which will cost them bigtime, and then the lineout, argrhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Am not sure of their plans if a flanker is injured but it wouldn't surprise me to see M.Carraro play at #6 in a desperate gamble in the last 5-10 minutes. I cannot see any other option if the game is close.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
This isn't an easy round at all. The mighty Tahs, with no backup flankers could put one over the Stormers or they could get belted 49-7. Not sure who the referee is but if a Saffer then the latter is more likely. Chiefs, Bulls, Reds and Jaguars (my PP) are specials. The three potential banana skins are the Blues v Rebels, H'Landers v Ponies and Lions v Hurricanes. RT is killing them in the tipping comp while we mere mortals, destined to pick Aussie sides, are languishing in the rear. In a fit of pique, I am going to put the mokka on his beloved Blues and pick them to win. A phyrric victory of sorts. I expect Brett to also be sticking pins in Thugby dolls as I'll tip a desperate Highlanders at home to beat a stuttering Brumbies. The Brumbies are fast becoming the donkeys, perhaps some team disharmony being played out, an all new front row and it seems C.Lealiifano is playing wounded. On the positive side, a refreshed D.Pocock will really rip into them Southerners while the Kuridrani vs Fekitoa battle will also be interesting. I also risk the wrath of the Digger but have picked the hungry Lions to take the wind out of the Windy Wellingtonites. The Canes are not great travellers and the Lions at home are on a roll. May the Rugby Force be with You. :)
Harry Jones
Expert
Stormers named to face Tahs. The A team. 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Juan de Jongh (co-captain), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Schalk Burger, 7 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 6 Nizaam Carr, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Rynhardt Elstadt, 3 Frans Malherbe (co-captain), 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg. Substitutes: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 JD Schickerling, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Brandon Thomson
CUW
Guest
@ Dave_S : Reds dont have the juice , to go the distance. they relay too much on a few guys to play the game. that makes those few tired by 60 - 65 minute mark. once they leave or fade , so do the reds .... Cheetahs have no defensive bone in them , the opposite image of shraks , who have no idea how to attack. so the scoreline shud be high. really, its a game between 2 cellar-dwellers ; will be jsut like the wolves v jaguars match last week. :) Cheetahs: 15 Clayton Blommetjies, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 Nico Lee, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Fred Zeilinga, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Henco Venter, 7 Uzair Cassiem, 6 Paul Schoeman, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Carl Wegner, 3 Maks van Dyk, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Charles Marais Replacements: 16 Jacques du Toit, 17 Luan de Bruin, 18 Johan Coetzee, 19 Francois Uys, 20 Oupa Mohoje, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Niel Marais, 23 Michael van der Spuy
CUW
Guest
when u play the Highlanders , there is always a chance . the style they play , is open for intercepts. and if they have the butter fingers like a few weeks back....
CUW
Guest
@ Rugby Tragic CHIEFS will be fired up this weekend. 1. they know the game was lost on the park though not on the scorecard. one good kick and they were beat. (though woodward catching that last pass may also have been a good shot.) 2. they are upset about the cheating claims. they will want to set the record straight ( though not necessarily at scrums :P ) by hammering the sharks. 3. there are places to grab , while some of the favored are injured. 4. the sharks are rubbish , they have no effin idea what they are doing in the park. their 10 will keep them in the game if kickable penalties aree given.
Nobrain
Guest
Well, this week I feel a bit french, so I will go like I would in the TOP 14, all home teams will win.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Akari.... for Chook's sake and yours,...... good luck but if the Tahs happen to win, I'd suggest the Tahs squad should all be asked to pee in a bottle... *S*
CUW
Guest
Blues: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Rieko Ioane, 13 George Moala, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Steven Luatua, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu or Hoani Matenga, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 James Parsons (c), 1 Sam Prattley Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Nic Mayhew or Namatahi Waa, 18 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19 Akira Ioane, 20 Kara Pryor, 21 Billy Guyton, 22 Matt McGahan, 23 Melani Nanai or Matt Duffie Rebels: 15 Jonah Placid, 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Tamati Ellison, 11 Sefa Naivalu, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker (c), 8 Adam Thomson, 7 Sean McMahon, 6 Jordy Reid, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Jamie Hagan, 2 James Hanson, 1 Toby Smith Replacements: 16 Pat Leafa, 17 Cruze Ah Nau, 18 Tim Metcher, 19 Sam Jeffries, 20 Colby Fainga’a, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Sione Tuipulotu, 23 Kotaro Matsushima Referee: Craig Joubert Assistant Referees: Glen Jackson, Brett Johnson TMO: Ben Skeen Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (cc), 14 Jack Wilson, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Rob Thompson, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Shane Christie (cc), 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown Replacements: 16 Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Siosiua Halanukonuka, 19 Joe Wheeler, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Matt Faddes Brumbies: 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Nigel Ah Wong, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 10 Robbie Coleman, 10 Christian Lealiifano (c), 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Jarrad Butler, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Tom Staniforth, 3 Ruan Smith, 2 Josh Mann-Rea, 1 Allan Alaalatoa Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, 19 Rory Arnold, 20 Blake Enever, 21 Jordan Smiler, 22 Joe Powell, 23 James Dargaville Referee: Nick Briant Assistant Referees: Brendon Pickerill, Kane McBride TMO: Aaron Paterson Reds: 15 Karmichael Hunt, 14 Junior Laloifi, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Anthony Fainga’a, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Nick Frisby, 8 Curtis Browning, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Hendrik Tui, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Ben Matwijow, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 James Slipper (c) Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 Sef Fa’agase, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Cadeyrn Neville, 20 Michael Gunn, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Duncan Paia’aua, 23 Ayumu Goromaru Cheetahs: 15 Clayton Blommetjies, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 Nico Lee, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Fred Zeilinga, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Henco Venter, 7 Uzair Cassiem, 6 Paul Schoeman, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Carl Wegner, 3 Maks van Dyk, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Charles Marais Replacements: 16 Jacques du Toit, 17 Luan de Bruin, 18 Johan Coetzee, 19 Francois Uys, 20 Oupa Mohoje, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Niel Marais, 23 Michael van der Spuy Referee: Ben O'Keeffe Assistant Referees: Will Houston, Nic Berry TMO: George Ayoub
Harry Jones
Expert
Tahs oick a big pack: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Reece Robinson, 13 Israel Folau, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Jed Holloway, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Will Skelton, 4 David Dennis, 3 Tom Robertson, 2 Hugh Roach, 1 Paddy Ryan Substitutes: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Sam Lousi, 20 Wycliff Palu, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 David Horwitz, 23 Matt Carraro
Harry Jones
Expert
Referees named Damien are not neutral
Harry Jones
Expert
For me it's scallops from Skye; pay a redhead to dive down from the wee docks on the west edge near the range at the end of the long one lane road--take a left around the hairy red cow
CUW
Guest
it was coming i bet goldmember was told by someone " ur skipper is 3 word s away from a red card '. so beast gets the beat :P
Harry Jones
Expert
Loads of garlic, Machooka Man
Harry Jones
Expert
This post was written with a 50 degree fever
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, the Brumbies have the easiest schedule left, but they also look like they are playing with several IVs partially attached