Is the top eight locked in? It’s early days, sure, but this weekend the claim exploded in popularity.
With good reason, too. The top eight of the Power Rankings share the same eight teams as the ladder, albeit in different order. What’s more, there’s stability in that group.
As always, there were improvers and fallers this week — but there was zero crossover between the top eight and the bottom ten.
Underscoring the gap, the three sides closest to the eight in last week’s Power Rankings — Melbourne, Gold Coast and Collingwood — all did their best to run away their lofty rankings this week.
Now, it should be stressed once again that the Power Rankings are not a ladder predictor. They aim to be an accurate representation of where a team is at right now.
But it goes without saying that to make the finals, teams not currently in the eight are going to need to start building up some form. We’re not seeing any top eight-level form from that group.
Maybe St Kilda are starting to hint that they can’t be ruled out. Port Adelaide? Perhaps. There’s still a very, very long way to go. Anything’s possible, right?
Then again, maybe not.
Most likely, it will take a current top eight side falling well off the wagon for a spot to open up.
+2 // Ladder: 2nd (5W, 1L)
The Suns rolled over, but you don’t register 120-point wins by accident. The Cats are clicking. Dangerfield and Selwood are clicking. Josh Caddy, Cameron Guthrie and Mitch Duncan are also winning plenty of the ball. There’s an oversupply of defenders. Tom Hawkins is firing. A lot going right at the Cattery.
+2 // Ladder: 5th (4W, 2L)
Last week’s GWS ranking attracted its fair share of critics. It was trolling, according to one response. Like I’ve said before, the rankings aren’t about wins and losses. Often they pick up on things that are happening away from the spotlight. It took beating Hawthorn by 75 points to bring the Giants back into the spotlight, but they’ve been building for a while now. Keep an eye on Rory Lobb. Eight contested marks, four goals is a decent evening.
-2 // Ladder: 3rd (5W, 1L)
The Swans didn’t lose to the Brisbane Lions, the conditions were horrible, it’s harsh to see them drop by two places. But when there are others near the top registering big wins — one against the reigning premiers, the other against a side that shouldn’t be losing by 120 — movement happens. Sorry Swans!
+2 // Ladder: 1st (6W, 0L)
North’s lowest score this season going into round 6? 107 points. They scored 46 less than that, but it turns out they can win in a grind, too. Jarrad Waite’s four goals really stood out in a game where no other forward imposed themselves in the goal kicking sense. Is 9-0 now a possibility? St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton — all at Etihad Stadium — are up next.
-3 // Ladder: 4th (4W, 2L)
The Dogs haven’t lost an inside 50 count this season and that trend continued on Friday, but they just didn’t seem smart enough with their entries. Again and again the ball would go to a contest, often one where North had the numerical advantage. The loose man down back was a killer.
-1 // Ladder: 8th (4W, 2L)
We just got so used to seeing the Hawks finding a way to get the job done that it was hard to tip against them against GWS. Turns out, the Giants didn’t even give them a chance to pull one out of the hat. It was well over by the final quarter. There were a few remarkable stats to come out of it all, but I thought this had the most wow factor: Hawthorn hadn’t had as many points kicked against them in a game since 2005.
No change // Ladder: 7th (4W, 2L)
In a weekend of big margins, Adelaide were the only side where each of the 22 players recorded at least 10 disposals. All bar four of those had more than 15 touches against Fremantle. Talk about an even spread of contributors.
No change // Ladder: 6th (4W, 2L)
Right now, West Coast look the most vulnerable of the top eight teams. Good teams on the road have registered strong wins against them. Their trip to Geelong this week should be interesting.
+4 // Ladder: 12th (2W, 4L)
Blake Acres had 28 disposals and two goals. Tim Membrey kicked five goals. Seb Ross, Luke Dunstan and Jack Billings each topped 20 touches. Yep, the under-50-game brigade led the way in the win over Melbourne and are coming along alright.
+2 // Ladder: 16th (1W, 5L)
Yes, the conditions were wet, but Sunday’s game against the Swans wasn’t low-scoring. Getting within three points is a fair effort. It’s about bringing that level every week. The Lions’ home record this year stands above its away record. Something to correct against Port Adelaide this week, perhaps.
+3 // Ladder: 11th (3W, 3L)
Chad Wingard out, Robbie Gray out, interstate. You give Port a tick for their 35-point win over Richmond. Expect Port to go on a semi-run in coming weeks given their light draw: Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, West Coast, Collingwood is what they have ahead of them.
-3 // Ladder: 12th (3W, 3L)
That was so very Melbourne, wasn’t it? Following up their first consecutive victories in five years with a loss to an opponent below them on the ladder. Just like how they followed up a round 1 win over GWS with a loss to Essendon. Just like how their last loss to St Kilda followed a win. Just like how … okay, I’ll stop here, we could be here a while.
+2 // Ladder: 14th (2W, 4L)
Did we really just have a two-team goalless quarter? In the AFL? In 2016? I’m not sure Carlton deserve this +2. Still, Brendon Bolton will take two wins in a row. Credit to Dale Thomas for his strong showing. His spot in the 22 had been questioned by many earlier this year. He belongs, we can all calm down.
-4 // Ladder: 10th (3W, 3L)
So that didn’t look good. The first triple-figures loss of the season, and it just got worse and worse: the Suns conceded five goals in the first quarter, then it was six, then seven, then another seven. I feel there was some genuineness to the Suns’ very-early-season form, but it looks like we’re back to the Suns of 2015 now.
-4 // Ladder: 13th (2W, 4L)
Where to the Pies belong? They’re bouncing around a bit, so they’re perhaps the hardest to get an exact read on. Funnily enough, the Pies actually won two quarters against West Coast, but their first and fourth terms left a lot to be desired.
+1 // Ladder: 18th (0W, 5L)
One of the fascinating things about the Dockers’ sixth loss of the season was this: After three quarters against Adelaide, they had kicked 3.14. It’s a horrid figure on two fronts. Kicking three goals in three quarters won’t win you too many games of footy. Kicking at a ratio of almost five behinds to each one goal definitely won’t. Oh, and the Dockers now officially own the record of worst start to a season by a previous season’s minor premier.
-1 // Ladder: 14th (1W, 4L)
You can understand the club wanting to project a positive image and expressing faith in their list at what is still an early point of the season. But boy, is now not the time to be raising the prospect of trading away high draft picks. “Clearly we need to improve our top-end talent and the best way to do that is through early picks or bring in some A-grade talent, and to do that you need to give up early draft picks,” football manager Dan Richardson said. The word rebuild and playing the kids also seem taboo topics. The time for that to change has surely arrived.
No change // Ladder: 17th (1W, 5L)
No really, did two teams really go an entire quarter against each other without a goal? Not one goal? The 0.6 to 0.3 second quarter will go down as one of the lowlights of 2016.
Cameron
Guest
Yep we get it Samantha, Geelong are the bestest side ever.
Perry Bridge
Guest
In other words....in a cricketing sense - North are flat track bullies? Or don't they bully enough? The Swans certainly bullied Collingwood and Carlton in the first 2 weeks by a combined 140 pts. Since then the Swans have Beaten the Giants and Eagles at their favoured SCG and dropped to Adelaide (on the road), and scraped in against Brisbane (on the road). Let's see. North beat Brisbane at the Gabba by 6 more goals and beat Adelaide (yes, at Etihad), and has had 3 interstate trips (yes, one a 'home' game in Hobart) and are 3 from 3 outside of postcode 3000s. The Swans actually start looking more like the flat track bullies living off the reflected glory of 2 early season smashings of one very disappointing side (Collingwood - who even managed to lose to St Kilda) and one rebuilding side (Carlton - who are slowly developing their game plan but were very much easy pickings - heck, - even Richmond beat them the previous week!!!). I just can't help but feel the Swans are being a tad over rated. They have exposable weaknesses, a lot of young players (forecasting wise here - might be tiring as the season goes on). It'll be interesting to see how they go (and they tend to be my '2nd team' esp with Horse Longmire coaching them.)
Perry Bridge
Guest
So - I gather the Geelong -26.3 correction is a partial discount of the distorting 120 pt win over a non-attending Suns in Geelong?? or that they had a romp over Brisbane at Geelong too (neither QLD team seems to travel well to Geelong!!). The Swans only go -1??? How do they retain the majority of the value of the 80 pt smashing of a listless Collingwood in rnd 1 at the SCG, let alone the comfortable 60 pts win over Carlton in Rnd 2???? Ironically North's +38 win at the Gabba looks okay compared to the other 2 visitors there (Suns lost and Swans scraped in by 3 pts). Clearly opposition and home/away factors have to come into the equation. One thing of interest - the 'week after' impact of playing at Subiaco seems to not be a factor so far.
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Blake - This is a good point. North could win 20 games, lose to WCE in Perth and Swans in Sydney and none of that would matter if they finished top 2 and earned home finals. You'd take that. North playing a side like St Kilda this week - it's definitely a danger game. Sure the Saints a LLWLLW so are due for another 2 losses - however - the loss to Hawthorn (in Launceston) was credible. Apparently. Certainly the Doggies loss to Hawthorn (at Etihad) seemed to hold greater weight than say - North's 6 1/2 goal win over the Lions at the Gabba (where the Swans were lucky to scrape a 3 pt win). This week - I'll be happy just to get the 4 pts and then set up for Essendon and Carlton. No doubt some others will mark anything less than a 10 goal win as underachieving. Ironically if Carlton can get over Collingwood this week they'd have 3 on the trot - confidence - belief - and be a threat at Etihad hosting Port. North could play Carl in Rnd 9 with them 4-4 eyeing off a spot in the 8. (Hawks won the whole box and dice last year from 4-4).
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Expect the unexpected Macca. Actually North have pretty good depth. And Casboult is a born Centre Half Back.
Macca
Guest
Finals in 33.3% of those years :) - but yeah just the 6 extra games :(
Paul D
Roar Guru
Given he played for Carlton between 2003 to 2014 I don't think you need to allow all that much for finals. But certainly I do agree they will be crossing their fingers on the injury front. Very vulnerable to that side of things.
Macca
Guest
1 thing on North so far is that 19 players have played all 6 games - for a list that includes 6 players over 31 (1 of whom is Jarrad Waite who is now in his 14th season but has only played 213 games - even without allowing for finals that is 79 missed games) I wouldn't expect that to last.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I think it was Josh Elliott who said something along the lines of Jarrad Waite will be smooching the premiership cup and people will still be "naaaaaah, I don't rate them" Even if they win people will say they fluked it, or whoever they beat lost it, rather than Norf won it.
Macca
Guest
And apparently only during games, he kicks most of them at training apparently. That is wh I think it will turn around at some point, he only needs 1 game where he kicks his first shot early and ends up with 3 straight and the mental barrier will start to fall away.
The Original Buzz
Roar Rookie
The odd thing is that Casboult kicked a few passes and nailed them to the man with opposition a few paces away. It seems to be only in front of goal that he tends to crumble.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Hahaha excellent comment.
hal
Guest
To quote Sheldon Cooper; "sarcasm?"
Liam O'Neill
Guest
Andrew can still tell us which North players wouldn't get a game at any other club
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks for reading Karl, and thanks also to all the other Noth commenters (particularly those that continue to read each week and respond each week). It's all appreciated. The Roos were +2 this week, so I don't think it's fair to say they are being sold short based on Friday night. It was a good win and their ranking got a boost because of it. I also don't think it's fair to say I'm rating North as not being genuine. I rank them as one of the top four teams in the competition right now. One of the top four. Ahead of your West Coasts and your Hawthorns and your Adelaides and your Bulldogs. Are we also writing these sides have off as not being genuine? If we're pedantic, we can say my view is that the form of North is less genuine than three teams above them. But there's no shame in that. Those teams look good right now. Obviously North stand out because they haven't lost a game. These rankings, as has been started before, aren't about wins and losses. There's a thing called the ladder for that purpose. They are an assessment of where a team is at right now, factoring in who they are playing and how strong they have performed given their opponents. On this measure, North are genuine enough to be among the top four. It's just that my belief, and the belief of my rankings, is that there are others who have more significant form.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks for the comment Michael. The rankings aren't all that useful as a long-term predictive tool. Certainly, you wouldn't look at the ratings right now and assume that Geelong or GWS are locks to beat Hawthorn in a final. They're a bit more useful (at least hopefully) as a gauge of the right now. Given GWS had an emphatic win over the Hawks, their right now has to be considered superior. (Unless the Hawks were coming of a streak of 10-goal beltings of quality sides and just so happened to have one off week.)
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks for reading Mullo. I'd argue those fixtures would be 50-50 at Etihad and a bit more in favour of the home team if it was the other way around. Plenty disagree though, obviously! We'll also find out about West Coast and Adelaide there, too. They've slipped to the bottom part of the eight here, which may surprise some. The Eagles haven't sold me they belong much higher to be honest. Keen to see how they perform.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks Ryan, you're actually pretty close to cracking the code! I do a similar thing with percentage and bringing the opposition into it, then reduce the weighting on games the less recent they are.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Looking forward to that game, Chris. Away form is a tad sketchy, but interested to see what the Lions can do with an easier draw.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
North are killing it on the Doubting Rankings though. At this rate they will finish on 22 - 0 on the ladder but still well down the Power Rankings because they haven't beaten a team above them.