Super Rugby tipping Round 11: The red card that killed three perfect rounds

No, I’m kidding. And I’m sorry.

That is a very deliberately provocative headline that really doesn’t marry with what will follow in the next paragraph, and I do apologise for you falling victim to the oldest trick in the publishing book. But now that you’re here, you might as well keep reading…

No, it wasn’t the red card that did it, but the Stormers’ loss to the Waratahs did indeed ruin what was to that point perfect rounds for Digger, Harry, and The Crowd. And while they still enjoyed a wonderful weekend of tipping, with seven right from the eight games in Round 10, it wasn’t quite so rosy for those banking on upsets.

Harry seems to have won the honour for Round 11 as a result, and he’s knocked out this week’s Big Super Rugby Question as well.

Last Week: Harry, Digger, and The Crowd 7; Brett 5, and Paddy 4.

Harry Jones: “By this point in the season, the points differential is a fair reflection of your team.

“The Crusaders will romp over the Reds; look for a season-high game in missed tackles. The Bulls have only lost once; the Brumbies are growing accustomed to losing and with overworked forwards (Scott Fardy has played more minutes than any other forward in the competition and Sam Carter is not far behind) and banged-up backs, I see the Bulls having too much speed on the edges and under the high ball.

“The Sunwolves and the Force are about equal in points differential (14-15 points a game in the hole) and the Perth men cannot score tries to save their lives, whilst the Sunwolves have no breakdown skills. I will close my eyes and pick the Force to win a scrappy game of full-contact chess. The Highlanders’ lack of healthy bodies will doom them against the Chiefs, but I think it’ll come down to kicks.

“The Waratahs are the best Australian team at the moment, and they will run over and around the porous Cheetah midfield. The Blues will beat the poor Kings, of course. But the shocker pick of the round is the Sharks, led by Keegan Daniel and maybe buttressed by Pat Lambie from the bench, to defeat the confident Hurricanes in that dreaded second tour game. Maybe a case of the bad bunny chow will get Beauden Barrett and he’ll lose a late-match kicking duel with Lambie.”

EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL

Tips: Crusaders, Bulls, Force, Chiefs, Waratahs, Sharks, and Blues.

Diggercane: “Right then, it’s make or break time; let’s roll the dice and see if the Gods are with me.

“‘Canes by plenty and Crusaders too.

“Brumbies and Bulls is tough. Brumbies have been disappointing while the Bulls have been inspiring but have yet to see the Bulls defeat a very good side. With the background dramas resolved at the stables, and the Brumbies season on the line here, I feel the Ponies will be too desperate at home for the Bulls. Well, they bloody well should be anyway.

“Force have been abysmal, once their defence breaks down they seem to have little else so have to favour the team willing to have a crack and the Sunwolves will generally do that so for the first time, I will tip the hotdawgs.

“It’s not getting any easier. The Chiefs in Mooloo land but something, somewhere is nagging at me that the Highlanders might just do this and this would be of benefit to the ‘Canes in terms of the NZ conference, which is probably where that nagging comes from, but I don’t really know. Have to settle on the Chiefs but feel I will regret it. So indecisive!

“Rounding off, the Waratahs should see off the Cheetahs easily enough despite the travel, and the Blues should have too much attack for the Kings to deal with.”

Tips: Crusaders, Brumbies, Sunwolves, Chiefs, Waratahs, Hurricanes, and Blues.

Brett McKay: Here we go again. And Digger’s weekend is ruined already, ‘cos I’ve picked pretty much the same as him.

The Crusaders is an easy tip, and so is the Waratahs, and so is the Blues.

Harry makes a good point about the Sunwolves-Force, but I’m sticking strong with the Sunwolves and here’s why: the Force are playing a no.9 at no.10. Ian Prior is a very handy scrumhalf, but that’s it; he’s a scrumhalf. He even did a decent job last week against the Bulls, but the Force as an attacking weapon have all the strike power of paper plane loaded with damp rice. So the Moondogs will either have me cheering like my Cheap Seats co-host at a Taylor Swift concert – again – or, you know… I’ll just be wrong for a fourth time.

The Highlanders defended like they were at the Alamo, and not Invercargill last weekend, and I even think the Chiefs are a bit off, but the Chiefs won’t play the same crash and bah game the Brumbies tried for 80 minutes in the rain last weekend. I’m going Chiefs, but it’ll be close. I hope I get to see this game live, but fear I won’t.

I got an email earlier this week from a wise man in New Zealand. I was umming and ahhing about the Sharks-‘Canes at the time, and it was like he was reading my mind. “Perhaps a small sample size, but since Plumtree and Boyd took over, the Hurricanes haven’t lost to a South African side,” he wrote. “Does it mean anything? Not sure but they have extensive inside knowledge of the Sharks mentality and I reckon Plumtree in particular will have Gold’s number.” I reckon he’s right. The ‘Canes have hit a vein of form in which they fear no team. Second game on tour be damned, Jones! Listen to the wise former hooker and regular game-blogger!

I’ve left the hardest one for last. I rationalised all kinds of reasons how and even WHY the Brumbies would beat the Bulls, when their team list arrived in my Inbox. Matt Toomua is out with a knee complaint that hasn’t come up (I watched him train for half an hour on Wednesday), and Robbie Coleman is going to play and defend at 12.

Against Jan Serfontein.

Tips: Crusaders, Bulls, Sunwolves, Chiefs, Waratahs, Hurricanes, and Blues.

Paddy Effeney: “After going full crazy last week, it’s probably time I settled into some kind of rhythm.

“Chasing losses is not the gambler’s best friend it would seem. I think the Force, Blues and Hurricanes are three vastly superior teams to their opponents, so they’re the away teams that get my vote. The rest of it is pretty straightforward, but with me that means they’ll all lose!

“Have fun tipsters.”

Tips: Crusaders, Brumbies, Force, Chiefs, Waratahs, Hurricanes, and Blues.

The BIG Super Rugby Question: Which of the New Zealand teams is best prepared for the stretch run of crucial Kiwi derbies, factoring in form, depth, fitness, and morale? (from Harry)

Harry: “The Blues can play a role; they will probably cause one of the big four to stumble. Of the four top teams, the Highlanders seem the least able to take it to the house; two of their hardest-working forwards are injured now, and they will probably have to rely on a kick-and-hunt game plan (they kick more than any other team, almost 28 times a match).

“The Hurricanes have rounded into ominous mid-season form after a rocky start. I think they’ll beat the Highlanders in May. The problem is they might lose this weekend in Durban and they end the season in Christchurch against an even more ominous Crusaders team that is running hard and straight for 80 minutes.

“The one-loss Chiefs aren’t as persuasive to me anymore, so I see them coming back to the pack. So, I’ll say it’s the Crusaders, doing it for the ‘Adder.”

Paddy: “I like the Chiefs and Hurricanes as we get closer to the pointy end, but for very different reasons.

“The Chiefs has so much poise, and so much potential. they’ve been managing to get wins without being the most spectacular outfit. From there, I think there’s potential for them to win more, and win better.

“The Hurricanes have so much size, and I like that. They just bully teams who are smaller and slower than them, and I don’t really see that changing very much. It’s their time to step up, and I think they’ll do it.”

Digger: “Well, hard to go past the two Cs currently. The Crusaders appeal to be in the best form and has one of the best packs in the tournament. The Chiefs, however, keep managing to win which I think is a good sign and even more so considering the personal they can bring back into the fold as the season progresses.

“The Highlanders do make me wary however, as they know and have proven last year how to time their run towards the back end of the season. The Hurricanes have consistently improved round after round and if they can continue on an upwards trajectory, who knows? The Blues also are capable of knocking a few off their stride and as is the way, all of these teams know each other so well that it is difficult to determine any result with absolute confidence.

“At this stage I would favour the Chiefs, but their match against the Crusaders in Suva appeals as the defining game for the NZ conference.”

Brett: It’s clearly the Chiefs or the Crusaders, and I think the Crusaders currently are in front.

And yes, I’m aware I wrote not that long ago that I wasn’t sure the Chiefs would lose another game this season, and that I suggested at the time that the sixth or seventh position the Crusaders occupied on the table around then was about where I thought they say at the time. A month is a long time in rugby, as it turns out.

After this weekend, I think the only game either team will find resistance is the game in Fiji, as Digger mentions above.

To me, the Crusaders are the best 80-minute, 1-23 team in the competition. That could change again, of course, but right now, the Crusaders are best-equipped for the run home, for mine.

(Footnote: I stand by the assessment that the Chiefs and Crusaders are the best two teams in the comp, however, if the table remains as it is now and quarter-final results went with current form, the Crusaders as lowest-ranked winner would actually meet the Chiefs as the highest-ranked, in the semi-final.)

The Summary

The Verdict
More than 380 responses once again, which is fantastic; thanks to everyone who lodged their picks. Here’s the final selections:

Crusaders – 96.9%
Brumbies – 62.2%
Sunwolves – 55.4%
Chiefs – 83.3%
Waratahs – 95.5%
Hurricanes – 77.3%
Blues – 95.3%

And here’s something to make the Waratahs supporters nervous: more people (just) thought the Kings can upset the Blues, than the Cheetahs can beat the Tahs. 😀 Enjoy your weekend! (BM)