After a bleak start to the season, the St George Illawarra are beginning to round into form, which can be attributed to the performance of club superstar Josh Dugan.
The team’s best player has lived up to lofty expectations, posting elite numbers across the board so far, headlined by a league-best 177.5 running metres a game.
Delve a little deeper and it’s staggering to see the variety in some of his performances. No surprise, it has everything to do with what position Dugan is playing.
Dugan has become a staple of the Blues squad, taking home NSW player of the year for the 2015 series. He made his debut for the Kangaroos last year on the right wing, and was again selected in 2016, this time as the right centre. But he has always looked more comfortable at the back of the attack.
With his kick return and ball running ability, brilliantly displayed in his outstanding performance in the No. 1 jersey throughout last year’s Origin series, Dugan is a genuine threat whenever taking on the line. He is in the upper-tier of defensive fullbacks, frequently making the right play when the opposing team makes a line-break, and always puts his body on the line to contest scoring opportunity.
He rarely drops a high ball. With the footy in hand, Dugan isn’t necessarily a bad decision-maker, although he can be somewhat of a ball stopper from time to time, and the development of this skill has directly contributed to James Tedesco’s rise in people’s estimations (the Tiger having seven try assists from 8.5 games).
With Dugan’s heavy focus on ball running, there is always rumblings that the role he plays at fullback could be completed as a centre or winger. And it is this line of thinking that led to the Dragons shfiting Kurt Mann, the better ballplayer, to the fullback spot, with Dugan going to the right edge.
Whether or not it was originally intended as a long-term move, the initial returns were not encouraging. Dugan struggled in the first game with the increased defensive requirements, missing a season-high six tackles. In Round 1 he ran for 89 metres, in Round 2 he managed 39 – both Dragons losses.
Paul McGregor then shifted Dugan back to his usual role for Round 3, where the former Raider churned out 211 metres and a line-break in a typical scrappy, low-scoring Dragons win.
He remained the custodian for the following five games, peaking with a 24-run, 312-metre effort against the Broncos.
It wasn’t until the Round 9 trip across the Tasman, with Tim Lafai ruled out on gameday, that Dugan returned to the centres. Unsurprisingly, he again struggled to get involved, with only 12 runs, considerably down from his 19 per game average. He also missed four tackles. Again, the Dragons lost.
McGregor reiterated post-match that the move was made out of necessity, regardless, the performance wasn’t adequate.
Prior to the Warriors match, the Australian team was announced, with Josh to line-up at right centre. Granted, the international arena is always going to lower individuals output, however once again Dugan failed to run 100 metres, never really got into the game, and struggled to find the ball.
The eye test says it all, yet to completely understand the difference in performance between the different positions it is integral to look at the split numbers of his season.
Fullback: seven games, 220 metres and 22.5 runs per game for five wins from seven matches.
Centre: three games, 46.3 metres and 11.3 runs per game for zero wins from three matches.
Numbers don’t lie.
For the Dragons
It simply isn’t enough to have Dugan only see the ball 11 times a game. Considering the difference in output and the lack of talent the Dragons posses to replace him at the back, the centre experiment must be abandoned. Mann simply isn’t NRL standard at the back.
Being the Dragons’ best player, it is a necessity to have him see as much ball as possible in the areas of the field he is most effective, specifically returning the ball.
His statistics from fullback are, by a considerable amount, the most dominant of any individual in the league, the Dragons play better with him in his natural role, and their winning rate is much higher.
For the Blues
It seems to be a case of over complicating a rather simple equation. While the other available options (Tedesco is injured) in Lachlan Coote and Matt Moylan are fantastic, neither posses the individual brilliance to turn a game on its head like Duges.
He was NSW’s most outstanding performer in last year’s series, and has done enough form-wise in clubland to reclaim his spot. Besides, he has failed to display any level of comfort in the centre position for the Dragons, and a transition to the exceptional increase in intensity to the Origin arena posts a serious challenge.
Michael Jennings on the left and any combination of Josh Ferguson, Josh Morris and James Roberts on the right side illustrates how adequately the fringes can be filled by the Blues, and thus a lack of need to move Dugan out of position. This notion is heightened when considering Coote or Moylan, while both great players, are not an upgrade over Dugan at fullback.
If the theory behind the move is an attempt to fit as much talent into the team as possible, it’s worth pondering whether Josh Dugan is actually a better centre than Morris, Ferguson or Roberts.
Strong word out of the Blues camp is Dugan is set to be retained at right centre, rejoining Roos partner Ferguson, as Laurie Daley will opt for either Coote or Moylan as a ball-playing fullback to complement Josh Reynolds or James Maloney, as both halves are predominantly running halves.
For the Kangaroos
Although getting the victory and holding a usually potent New Zealand team to zero, there are concerns over the Kangaroos’ roster. Out wide, Dugan was the first-choice right centre due to Will Chambers’ season-ending injury.
For the upcoming Four Nations, it could be argued that the man who played outside him for the Anzac Test, Ferguson, would be a better selection in the centres, with Dugan shifting out to the wing. Concerns over Blake’s defensive game may prevent that from being the case, and it is likely Dugan will retain his spot for the end of year tournament.
Looking forward to next year’s World Cup, with a completely healthy roster, Josh will have some very steep competition for his jersey. Younger names who are not yet in the fold will begin to put their hands up, Chambers will be back, Ferguson and Roberts will all continue to improve, not to mention the slight possibility of one Jarryd Hayne returning and causing a few selection headaches.
If it isn’t fullback, wing should be Dugan’s rep level position, but he has an immense amount of work to get through before he can confidently make that jersey his own.
James T
Guest
When Laurie picks Farah and Pearce it doesn't matter where Dugan plays nsw aren't scoring many points.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Matto, that is exactly what I am saying and here's why. The whole team must be greater than the sum of the parts. It doesn't matter if Dugan is a better fullback than Moylan or Coote. Lets say it. He is much better at running and defence than any fullback in Australia. The stats don't lie, but is that what NSW needs? You have added Mansour (more running metres which is useful) and Reynolds (good kicking game to pin QLD in their own 20m and a few more repeat sets - all good). But where do the tries come from? So, the new team is camped in the QLD half and are running the ball up trying to break the line and score (stop me if this sound familiar), are we likely to score more points with the halves you have picked? Two of them have played before. Do we think Adam Reynolds is going to be the difference that creates the tries we need? You are right, I can't call them crap, but neither of these halves would even make the squad, let alone the bench for QLD. Picking the best players doesn't produce the best team. A good example of this would be picking the best players in each position, but none of them are a goal kicker. Do you pick a team like that? Or do you say "Smith is not as good as Jones, alas, but he is a goal kicker and we need one so he gets the no 7 spot"? It's all about the team, not the individuals. QLD have never forgotten that and is one of the reasons for their success.
Matto Dragon
Guest
Pomoz, I'm really sorry, but are you saying because we have crap halves, we don't pick the best fullback? If we have crap halves, then don't pick them, deeeeer!!!!! Every game at fullback for his club and for his state, Dugan has run the ball back and given his team opportunities to attack. Who the hell else can do that? Its then up to the playmakers to do their job. If either Moylan, Tedesco, or Coote was fullback, NSW would be camped in their own 20 metres hoping a forward or a winger can make a break. Granted, Dugan is not a playmaker, but what he does is gets us up the field and gives us the impetus for our halves to take over. I think Maloney is a shoe-in, and I believe ADAM Reynolds should be given the halfback spot. Now you can't call either of them crap. My backline would be 1. Dugan 2. Mansour 3. Jennings 4. JMoz or Roberts 5. Ferguson (but Tedesco if he was fit) 6. Maloney 7. Adam Reynolds I would also throw in Tyrone Peachey on the bench (the guy can play anywhere and can produce something out of nothing) I rate him over Cartwright atm.
Brayden Issa
Roar Rookie
All in reference to selection for game 1. I agree Tedesco would have been a near certain selection considering his form prior to injury
Brayden Issa
Roar Rookie
Shame really because J.morris has shown the ability to really shut down Inglis one on one, a rarity at any level let alone origin.
Farqueue
Guest
Don't pick him...he is all we got at the dragons...the only time we look like scoring is when he has the ball. Whatever they are paying him is not enough. While Laurie Daley is in charge of the blues ,they are almost no chance of winning. He stated that he won't pick inexperienced players. Why? Oh they might get beaten by a lot...what was the score in the last origin. Seriously he has the selecting skills of a brick.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
Dugan is the best fullback option the Dragons have, he is a strong ball runner and good fullback but not for NSW. Tedesco and Moylan offer too much more in terms of ball playing which we always seem to lack with the halves we pick, that is why Hayne was the right choice in 2014, he was the attack for the Blues in game 1 and the defence that won them the series in game 2. He can make his good contributions from the wing or even centre
Charles NSW
Guest
I feel with those two players they can create the activity that NSW needs to score points Also with having Jennings in utility they can make sure he has plenty of the ball too
Gus Paella
Guest
J-Moz may suffer from a touch of the Dugans. For mine he lacks the creativity that NSW will need if they pick Dugan, Pearce, Farah, Scott, Jackson, Bird and Merrin. An excellent player though.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Tedesco was not unavailable at the time of Dugans move
Alex L
Roar Rookie
He does make a lot of meters, mostly on kick returns -- he tends to monopolise the returns of longer kicks which is not necessarily an undesirable trait in a fullback, but with a different (but still capable) fullback I don't think they'd routinely finish 15 meters further back. Does nothing to solve their inability to actually get through the line or create an overlap either way, as I said in an earlier comment he's a good player, however he's absolutely not in some exceptional run of form.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Charles, I love idea of Coote at 5/8th and Moylan at fb. Plenty of skill in that team to help boost NSW creativity. I feel sorry for Dugan, if we had good halves he would be the first picked.
Charles NSW
Guest
When you have a running fullback like Dugan there has to be room for him to move Like the Dragons and NSW Origin there has not been the halves to utilise his skills He would make a good front rower if heavier but that is not what he is or should be In my team I have Dugan and Morris in the centres and Ferguson and Tedesco on the wings I have Matt Moylan as the fullback and in the halves Lachland Coote at 5/8 with Adam Reynolds as the 1/2 I feel with Moyland and Coote both in the team it will create the opportunities for the likes of Dugan I have Jennings as a utility so we can utilise his speed at various stages of the game
Kim
Guest
Sorry guys, but talk of playing Duges in the centres, wing or even second row, to accommodate a less competent fullback is ridiculous. When Dugan fails NSW, when they lose games because of him, when he is unable to wear the Blue jersey and not be up there with the best players on the field each game, then you start talking about him being dumped. I'm not a Gallen fan, but are you going to dump him for Bryce Cartwright, because he doesn't pass the ball? Are you going to dump Brett Morris (if he was fit) for James Roberts because Roberts runs faster? I could go on and on, but seriously, you're not going to do those things because Gallen and Morris and Dugan are the best players in their positions game I, game out. It's upto Daley to pick the rest of the spine to perform a role that will win us this Origin series. Sacrificing the best fullback in NSW to try something different? Give me a break! If anyone should be sacrificed to give us an opportunity of getting that shield back, it's coach Daley.
ChubbzyK96
Guest
By most accounts it seems Dugan should play. He seems to be very apt in defense as a fullback, so have him there, let him take the kick return then he can slot in on the left or right wing/centre in attack.
Brayden Issa
Roar Rookie
Exactly, while there is a definitely a (correct) perception that Dugan is a great fullback and an average centre, the stats clearly say he is really quite average offensively, and struggles defensively - his missed tackles do go up but that stat doesn't account for when he misses his assignment and influences the defensive line. Blues can't afford to be giving away any opportunities, especially when it will be Inglis on the opposite side running at him.
Brayden Issa
Roar Rookie
Thank you for the correction. Morris could play either side of the field, it has come apparent that nsw prefer him on the right side, originally to mark up against Inglis, which obviously would be the case again this year. Seems to be the forgotton man and is making way for less talented players at a position where he is a specialist. Not to mention has been a consistent performer
Brayden Issa
Roar Rookie
Hasn't played there for the panthers and thats why he won't be picked there for the blues. The point being made was that Dugan is being moved out of position (to a position he isnt effective in) for a player that could effectively play a different position. Tedesco is unavailable.
Agent11
Guest
I agree with this. I don't think Dugan is the player NSW really need in this series. No doubt he is very physical and his work rate is high but its time NSW picked a team that can throw caution to the wind and go for points, rather than just try and contain QLD which NSW have failed to do time and time again.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
And how effective has Moylan been at 5/8? What about Tedesco?