Michael Hooper’s Waratahs have just one Super Rugby target – finish on top of the Australian Conference and automatically qualify for the final series.
The alternative to finish in the top eight is fraught with danger.
Tonight there couldn’t be a better litmus test than a clash with Super Rugby’s benchmark, the Crusaders. The Waratahs haven’t won away from home in this fixture for 12 years.
In the 20 years of Super Rugby, the Crusaders have won seven titles and been runner-up four times, well ahead of the second-best Brumbies with two titles and four seconds.
And it’s the Brumbies who the Waratahs must beat to top the Conference. As it sits, the Waratahs lead by a point with a game in hand, and the Brumbies are on a bye this weekend, giving the Waratahs the golden opportunity to jump well clear.
How the Waratahs fare with playmaker Kurtley Beale out for the season is a key question.
Every Waratah interviewed since Beale lasted just 40 seconds last week before he was carted off to undergo serious knee surgery has made the point that losing him is a massive blow.
Not only will his outstanding ability be missed, but his very presence is a positive on and off the field – that’s the Beale way.
It was a major plus that the Waratahs overcame the loss last week against the Bulls at Allianz to win 31-8, picking up a precious try bonus point in the process.
Even though the Crusaders are a far better outfit than the Bulls, and more dangerous at home, the Waratahs are well equipped.
The forward battle sees the Waratahs with 565 Super Rugby caps, slightly more experienced than the Crusaders with 550. The Waratahs are better off with 915 kilograms in their pack, compared to the Crusaders’ 880.
The battle of the locks will be telling with Will Skelton and the underrated Dave Dennis doing battle with Sam Whitelock and Luke Romano, while the skippers Hooper and Kieran Read will both be very destructive for the entire 80 minutes.
Among the backs, the Crusaders’ long-serving halfback Andrew Ellis will chalk up his 150th appearance, and his clash with the in-form Nick Phipps with 92 caps will go a long way towards deciding the result.
Overall in the backs the Crusaders have 385 Super Rugby caps compared to the Waratahs’ 333, but the Crusaders haven’t got an Israel Folau, who is set for a timely big game.
The Waratahs have the more experienced bench with 427 caps to 310 that includes Wycliff Palu’s 130, and the Crusaders prop Wyatt Crockett with 154.
This could well be the one of the season’s best with both teams keen to have a crack.
For mine, the Waratahs in a tight one.
Fox
Roar Guru
Great points Common Sense and yes the Grand Slam argument DL made last year showed no sense at all of the games history for someone supposedly so well versed in the game, and comments like that do make you wonder. Home ground advantage to all the losing sides is exactly why Grand Slams have so much prestige but not according to DL obviously
Lano
Roar Guru
Thanks David. You have no idea how long or how I know Beale. And I have no idea how the Tah’s tick, or fail to tick – such is their history in Super Rugby. But what you have done in coining “the Beale way” is to eulogise a person who you believe has some mysticism off the field. It’s laughable. It’s childish. I never heard or read a serious rugby commentator mythologise McCaw or thousands of better players than Beale. It’s commentary like yours that enable brand O’Connor, Beale’s indiscretions and Cooper, because they are gifted therefor mustn’t be tampered with and their individualistic selfish behaviour must be tolerated. Finally, if the Tahs need “the Beale’s way”, they’re in greater trouble then we all think.
colvin
Guest
Soapit, I guess it's one of these situations where both are superstars but Dagg lost his sparkle, probably because of injury but possibly he needed a break from the game as well. So will Dagg come back as good as before? He hasn't yet, in that he's been much better than he was, even excellent, but is still prone to making mistakes. Ben just doesn't seem to make mistakes. Do you remember just before half time in the RWC final. Carter had just kicked a penalty. The WBs had kicked off and Ben Smith and McCaw interchanged a couple of times each and took play back to near the WBs 22 which then set up the try just on half time. That's Ben Smith at his best. He has this ability to step up into another gear when it's needed. And he always does it when it's needed. Which then raises his teams. That's the difference between Ben and everyone else. He's a match winner. McCaw had that ability as well.
Fox
Roar Guru
Dead right TWAS and the defensive lapses if we can call them that, came at the back on two occasions and once when he was caught offside rushing forward on the left wing kind of at center as I think rob Horne or Foley was covering fullback at the time but he got skinned by the attacking playing before he was penalized anyway. I thought the Tah's D looked a bit messy and out of sink at times and maybe Izzy going from 13 to 15 and back again was a part of that who knows. Cheika was there in the crowd - He will be at the Chiefs v Rebels game as well so wonder what he thought of it all. But credit to the Crusaders they were all over the Tah's in the first half and blew them away really. Tough pack to up against in any conditions not just that wet weather.I mean it's virtually the All Black pack and Read is in scintillating form as well. That tackle on Phipps was one of the crackers of the season. I'm surprised Phipps got back up.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Player praises team mate. Now that's something you can read a lot into...
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Best 13 on the field? He didn't even defend there.
ClarkeG
Guest
Oh I had forgotten about that grand slam thingee. What a load of nonsense all that was.
Fox
Roar Guru
Injury or not - and he didn't start with an injury - the shine on the gloss has rubbed off a little after the WC and to his great credit Folau has pretty much acknowledged that since. That says something for the guy in my opinion. No question he is quality person as well as player.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes I mean we are talking about the greatest franchise in the professional era, not one trick ponies that couldn't defend their only title. I mean what rugby analysis suggested the Tahs were going to win that? Blind faith?
taylorman
Roar Guru
Interesting...said like I care...hmm
Fox
Roar Guru
Best Again ? You make it sound like he has played there 20 times by now John - steady on mate I think you are getting a bit ahead of yourself there. He played well tonight at 13 in attack but he got caught out at least three times in defense and one very badly so settle down - 13 is the toughest defensive position in the game and he has not mastered that yet - not even close so he is not the best 13 going around at present after how many games there? And you are living in fantasy land if you don't think he still has heaps to learn in that position I think he should play at 12 but he still has heaps to learn there and especially at test level
wardad
Guest
Wheras the opposite is true of Folau eh John ? Needs a better team around him.
wardad
Guest
But everyone knows wide boys cant jump !
Fox
Roar Guru
So John you think Dagg is not a global superstar in the game? Really? Well he was regarded as the best fullback in world in 2010-12 then got a series of injuries that just came one after another and one was a very serious injury Do yourself a favor and go back and look at 2011 WC semi final we he put in a performance that was described in not one one but two English newspapers not NZ, as one of the finest performances by any fullback in WC history - go back and check it out - the full game its on youtube - He was magnificent in that a game and he was instrumental in that victory. Yes he was in one of the greatest sides in the games history in 2011 right? And he was in the starting 15 in that side so he was part of that side so your argument makes no sense at all - in fact only confirms just how good he is as a player when at his best Or does that title only mean 14 players? Dagg was the best fullback at the 2011 WC - Izzy certainly wasn't at the 2015 WC - Ben Smith was and still is and before you cry injury - Ben SmIth was out performing him in clean breaks and run meters and completed tackles before the injury. Oh yes he was and to the point where the SMH one of Izzy;s biggest supporters, conceded he was behind Ben Smith because Smith had a more complete game at fullback. This is not a go at Folau ,he is wonderful player, but at those like you John who so easily forget just how good Dagg is as a footballer and at fullback when at his very best. He also has one of the best defensive punts in the game and especially when under pressure. Sorry but he wasn't seen as good enough before the 2015 WC because his form wasn't there after all those injuries - he will be in the squad this year the way he has been playing I would think.
Brizvegas
Guest
So it's agreed David couldn't pick his nose
John
Guest
Who watched the crash???
John
Guest
Another strong performance from Folau tonight taylorman. The best 13 on the field again (in a poor team).
John
Guest
Correct me if I'm wrong but Folau has been quoted saying he asked Cheika not to play him in the final due to his ankle injury and had surgery immediately after the tournament. He was out for two months and missed a contract in Japan which must have been 7 figures or thereabouts. Some niggle!
Fox
Roar Guru
Exactly what I was thinking Taylorman- and some
Fox
Roar Guru
hi Zerogain - How is that negative? And tonight's game against the Crusaders only confirmed my point - He will be more dangerous at 12 or 13 - Negative? I don't think so..more like objective