The New South Wales Waratahs are a good football team. They are also a flawed football team. And in a tight race for the Australian conference, that is a big problem.
All season, Waratahs fans have been waiting for the team’s season to really kick in to high gear. After four wins on the trot it looked like it had finally happened. Friday night’s loss to the Crusaders delivered a brutal dose of reality to the team.
Friday night was really one of the few times this season that the Waratahs didn’t beat themselves; they were genuinely outplayed by the opposition. The gulf between the top of the New Zealand conference and the top of the Australian conference was clear for all to see as the Crusaders dominated the match from the opening kickoff.
However, this was largely not the case for the Waratahs earlier in the year. The Tahs were losing not because they were being outplayed, but because they were handing the opposition victory on a silver platter.
If we look back to the loss to the Highlanders, NSW trailed 30 after 54 minutes, yet if you look closely, the Highlanders were only leading because they were capitalising on the Waratahs errors. There were no periods of sustained attack in which they ground the Waratahs down and eventually overran them. Instead their points came from turnovers, intercepts and first phase, set-piece moves.
For 54 minutes the Highlanders weren’t outplaying the Waratahs, the Waratahs were just playing horrendously bad. Yet eventually the passes started to go to hand and the Tahs began to dominate. The forwards finally started winning the battle in the trenches. They scored four straight tries and came close to scoring a match-winning fifth.
The formula was largely the same in the home losses to the Brumbies and Rebels. Waratahs handling errors gifting the opposition the ball, simple one on one defensive errors opening up holes for the opposition, an inability to win the forwards battle.
Throughout all of this there was one bright spot, Kurtley Beale. When the Waratahs were playing poorly Beale was by far the best player in a sky blue jersey each week. He was almost always beating the first defender, bending the defensive line, making half breaks. Every time he touched the ball you watched a little closer because there was a chance that a piece of brilliance was about to take place.
During the Waratahs run of four-straight victories a couple of things started to change. The backline moves that were not going to hand early in the season started to come off. Finally Kurtley wasn’t the only one providing a spark.
Israel Folau started to develop as an outside centre, constantly finding holes for himself or opening them up for his teammates. The accuracy of Bernard Foley’s passes improved. And Nick Phipps started sniping around the base of the ruck, exposing holes in the opposition’s ruck defence and creating a bit of extra time for his teammates by putting the defence in two minds.
On the defensive side of the ball, the players started to make their one on one tackles. More crucially however, was the fact that the simple alignment errors were mostly eliminated. The defence around the base of the ruck was solidified, other than a couple of instances against the Stormers.
However, while the Tahs showed clear signs of improvement during the past month, it also became ever clearer that they have one fatal flaw. And after Friday’s loss, there is no doubt that this flaw exists.
The Waratahs forward pack simply isn’t good enough.
The scrum has been totally dominated in almost every game they have played this year. The lineout has been atrocious. Both set pieces have failed to provide the backs with a solid platform to attack.
In general play, the Waratahs forwards can’t get over the advantage line. Players that were running over the opposition during the run to the 2014 title have been physically dominated up front. Will Skelton is a shell of his former self. Wycliff Palu waits for defenders to tackle him.
The problems are two-fold for the Waratahs. Slow ball at the ruck means that the defensive line is set before NSW have a chance to attack, naturally making life very difficult for forward runners.
Flowing on from this, the Tahs forwards don’t run on to the ball with any intensity or vigour. They catch the ball standing still and are tackled by two or three defenders before they even get a chance to build up some speed.
And that leads on to the next issue, the Tahs simply don’t have the skills to interlink within the forwards. This was clear for all to see against the Crusaders. The Canterburian forwards are all ball players, they would pass it to each other, creating simple one on one battles, a far easier proposition for an attacker trying to get over the advantage line.
Alternatively, if the defence tried to gang tackle the ball carrier, a simple tip on and the receiver is straight through a hole. We saw this when Tatafu Polata-Nau jammed in on the ball carrier and a quick pass saw Joe Moody charge through a huge hole. The Crusaders scored in the next phase.
The inability to ball play within the forwards has significantly hurt the Waratahs. Their forward hit ups are predictable, resulting in gang tackles and slow breakdowns. Most times they have tried a tip on pass of some sort, it has been sloppy or resulted in a dropped ball.
Watching the match against the Bulls last weekend it was clear that the only way the Waratahs were going to pick up metres was by giving the ball to the backs. But you have to be dominating upfront to be able to spin it wide. During the early stages of the season, if we take out Beale, the Tahs were constantly under pressure when using the ball in the backline because the backs weren’t playing behind front-foot ball. This led to numerous errors and the team struggled considerably.
The one saving grace for the team was Beale. Almost every time he touched the ball this season he bent back the defensive line, or broke a tackle or two, or just slid straight through. He was providing the Tahs with some semblance of front-foot ball and one of few payers providing attacking spark.
On the positive, this Waratahs forward pack is very young. Tom Robertson, Jack Dempsey and Jed Holloway are aged 21, 22 and 23 respectively. Hugh Roach is also 23 and despite being around for years, Michael Hooper is just 24 years of age, as is Will Skelton. The forward pack can only develop and improve in the coming years.
While it may be the forward pack that is currently holding this side back from becoming great, if they are able to stay together and develop as a group, it will be this same forward pack that leads this team to another title in the coming few years. It will just take time.
Despite all the negatives, the Waratahs still currently sit atop the Australian conference. A trip to the finals is a strong possibility and with this backline, they have the potential to cause an upset. However, without Beale and with an under-par forward pack, such a run is unlikely.
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Cameroon, agree with some points but disagree with others, and think you missed a couple of things. 1) This year was never going to be a title run, unless we got some exceptional luck. Tahs lost a number of quality players (Kepu, Potgieter, AAC, Taquele) and also importantly lost some good subs (McCutcheon, Hoiles, Jono Lance, Bethan, Volavola). Recruitment included only three experienced players (Ta'avo, Guilford and Hegarty), a league convert (Reece) and fifteen (15) young players (most from NRC). That is a huge drop in quality and experience! Add a new coach on his first season at this level, it would be a real miracle if this team clicked and played well from round one with all the changes. 2) The idea we are still with a chance for the finals is misguided, except for one detail. The Brumbies have a clear run and we have a very difficult one. The Brumbies will only not win the group if they mess-up completely. We only have a chance of making the finals if the Hurricanes aren't able to beat at least a few other NZ teams and we beat them in Sydney (which is possible, I'll admit). We would then face one of the conference winners (away), perhaps the Crusaders, Chiefs or Highlanders - very unlikely under present form. 3) I am a Beale fan, even in his low days in Melbourne and think he will be sorely missed. But I think many of you over-estimate his effect on the team. Rugby is a team sport and one where individual stars only have a limited affect. Tah's best game this season was against the Bulls, where Beale wasn't present. Yes, its a different back line without him, but young Horwitz is holding up well. 4) Agree with you that for many games this season we started very poorly. The comebacks against the Highlanders, Brumbies and Rebels had me hanging at the edge of the seat, and we were much more competitive against the Crusaders as the game wore on. Its something that the team needs to collectively correct. 5) Agree that the forward pack, particularly the tight five, aren't cutting it. We were pushed away in the scrum in most games, lost lineouts in most games, don't make the advantage line, even big Will. Each has had good moments, but overall and collectively its been lacking. Positive has been the young back three, Dempsey, Holloway and Hooper, but they still have much to learn. Without the forward consistently winning at least our own ball, life for the backs is very hard. I think that, if you adjust the expectations to the reality of the team and the moment, this has not been a bad season. We were competitive against strong teams (Highlanders, Brumbies), many need players have shown good promise (Kellway, Holloway, Horwitz, Dempsey,Robertson), I think Reece has been a good convert (considering its his first season), the Folau experiment has been positive (good defense %, more ball to attack). I hope we recruit some good props and locks for next year.
cs
Roar Guru
So you made such an indefensible comment that as soon as you realised your wheels have fallen off, you departed from my proposition!
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
So they have such a great team that as soon as Cheika departed, the wheels have fallen off?
Kiwineil
Guest
i havent done the numbers either ... but a raucous home crowd does amazing things to the Tahs (and supposedly neutral refs - ducking !!)
cs
Roar Guru
I haven't done the probabilities, but this morning Paul Cully, intriguingly, hope-raisingly, suggested that the Tahs could face the Crusaders in a home (Sydney) final. Might give them a large snowball's in a temperate latitude ...
Kiwineil
Guest
As a kiwi resident in Sydney, I read with interest. First of all, I agree with what I believe to be the posters principle premise. And to me, thats less about Kurtley and more so that the Tah's fwds, missing Potgeiter and a few others, are being out-thought, outskilled and largely outmuscled by their opposition, and the Kiwi teams in particular. And as everyone knows, playing backfoot rugby is pretty tricky.... To be fair, thats not a Waratahs issue its more pervasive to Australia And that brings us to the great divide - Kiwis are brought up playing running, skill-based rugby from the age of 6 and are more instinctively inclined to play ball-in-hand skills based footy whereas Aussie kids are taught to play structure and rules tend to play the playbook no matter the situation. Which in part is my someone like Kurtley looks so good in the Aussie context .. And thats not mean tot downplay his capabilities, I completely agree that Kurtley is a special player who does make the Tah's look better, just imagine if he played in front of a pack which actually went forwards and/or a halfback who can pass in front of the receiver and not at his chest !! And if the Tah's do make the finals (despite getting their while being midtablish on actual points), and those finals are played outside Sydney, they have a snowballs chance in the proverbial .... and given their other issues, as good as he is, the outcome wouldnt really be too different were Kurtley playing.....
Ralph
Roar Guru
I suspect his "arrive and lean on the side of the ruck" could be very high.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Mate, we desperately needed the rain.
cs
Roar Guru
Let's start again. My proposition is a very simple one, it applies in many walks of life. When an extraordinary coach moves on the team must cope with an extraordinary change in its circumstances. Now, knock yourself out champ.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Yes I would say a coach moving on is not extraordinary circumstances. Mostly because it happens every year to multiple teams. Especially good coaches because they are the ones most susceptible to better offers.
cs
Guest
You would say that wouldn't you. More like Neville Wran stepping down for Barrie Unsworth. Not that bad but at least a little closer to the difference.
Jason
Guest
CUW 2008.... 8 YEARS...
Jason
Guest
It is because Beale runs the WARATAH backline ,not Foley..
PeterK
Roar Guru
I believe the backup lineout leader is CARTER. Agree re the selection of the locks with one caveat, there may be a need for a 6/lock utility on the bench rather than a straight lock. However if this was the case my preference would be L Timani well ahead of someone like Mumm. I would be strongly considering L Timani starting at 8 in which case I would have McMahon on the bench.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Personally I think the 4 locks selected could be a good selection if they opted for Simmons, Coleman, Arnold and Neville as a development option. If not, they should look for a line out leader as a back up to Simmons.
PeterK
Roar Guru
TWAS - Agree, Neville was playing well and I was surprised when he was benched. And as you agree though even at that time both Coleman and Arnold were playing better.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
The sole Waratahs fan capable of objective criticism of his team. The Waratahs run of "good" form coincided with: Playing 2 poor teams on the run Sneaking home against an overrated team who played the last 25 with 14 men. Didn't they draw with the Sunwolves at home only a week ago? Another overrated SA team who aren't the powerhouse they once were, on the back of their overseas tour. As soon as they played a strong team their "good" form disappeared.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Peter Neville had been in good form and was seemingly benched to provide impact from the bench with Matijow to provide graft over a longer period. But he certainly wasn't playing better than Coleman and Arnold.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Their coach moving on, known before the previous season finished, is extraordinary circumstances? This happens to teams every season. The Brumbies handled the departure of Jake White completely unexpectedly with minimal disruption. I'd say it's closer to the Reds situation, where the team suffers under the guidance of a poor coach (and in the inferior squad that coach assembled).
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I love your objective criticism wolf man. Tahs to roll 3 kiwi sides all performing better than they are whilst the Brumbies to stumble facing teams lower than them. Didn't you say the Waratahs were a better team than the brumbies? Guess you can't argue with that. You know, unless you consider the 2 times the Brumbies beat the Waratahs this year.