2016 has seen the rise of Tom Scully and the demise of Travis Cloke. The contested marking beasts are on the decline and the aerobic beasts are on the rise.
Remember 2012, when Travis Cloke led the AFL contested marking list with 73? He was followed by three other contested marking beasts: Tom Hawkins, Kurt Tippett and Drew Petrie. Cloke, Hawkins, and Petrie also featured in the top seven goal-kickers that year.
Fast forward to 2016, the key forward role has changed. Full forwards are required to cover a lot more ground, chasing and presenting leads outside the forward fifty. Tippett can’t apply much defensive pressure so the Swans have decided he’s better value in the ruck. The Magpies have decided Cloke is better value in the reserves.
Hawkins is still getting a game, but more mobile forwards like Buddy Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Thomas Lynch and Jarrad Waite are kicking more goals and applying better defensive pressure than Hawkins. Also among the new breed of more mobile key forwards are Jeremy Cameron, Jake Stringer, Josh Jenkins and a reinvented Jack Riewoldt, all of whom are getting more goals from scooping up ground level balls than from taking contested marks.
In 2012, the buzz word was ‘power forward’ but today’s key forwards are athletes.
Further up the field, the changes in 2016 have been just as dramatic. With interchange rotations reduced from a maximum 120 in 2015 to maximum 90 in 2016, the aerobic beasts are simply out-running other midfielders. Tom Scully, Lachie Hunter and Aaron Hall had each been many years at their respective clubs before emerging suddenly as midfield stars in 2016.
Another consequence of the reduced rotations is that it’s much harder to apply four quarter pressure in 2016. That’s good news for teams like the Bulldogs, Geelong, North Melbourne and GWS, which have the skills to go through the middle of the ground, the shortest way to goal. They’ve unexpectedly found themselves in flag contention.
It’s bad news for the clubs like Collingwood, Freo, Port Adelaide and Richmond, whose dearth of classy runners leaves them unable to take advantage of the increased space, fearful of counter-attacking through the middle.
Four years is a long time in football. The contested marking beasts are on the way out. Today, more than ever, it’s about mobility in the forward line and finding space in the middle.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Great article Terry. I think there's a big difference between Cloke and Tippet. Tippet is proving very versatile and has always been a good kick for goal. But I also think it's okay to have less mobile key forwards with limited aerobic capacity and ability to chase or apply defensive pressure, so long as you only have one of them and they are surrounded by teammates who apply pressure. This is why Redoath works at the Doggies. He provides a good strong contested marking presence, brings the ball to ground if he doesn't mark it, makes opposition defenders feel his strength with his physicality and generally kicks straight (with the exception of his game against Melbourne 2 weeks ago). If you've got a bloke in your forward line who does all those things consistently and repeatedly 'presents' in the right spots, then he is valuable so long as your attack is balanced.
hawker
Guest
yes Tippett is going well this I reckon. ruck/forward working for him
Gecko
Roar Pro
Saying full forwards generally have greater agility, mobility and endurance than full forwards of yesteryear is a bit like saying midfielders are generally taller. Do we really need to look for stats or can we trust our eyes?
Wilson
Roar Guru
I would prefer to pay the money to Tippett then Cloke. Tippett is showing that he is worth the money so far. Cloke is looking like the dud car you get shafted with from the Car Dealer.
Wilson
Roar Guru
that is the Scary bit he looks better every year
Michael Huston
Guest
But Tippett is not just a full forward, and given how much Longmire moved him around the ground pretty early on in his time at the Swans, I don't think he was ever paid that much money to be just a full forward. The ruck move looked to be pretty set in stone by pretty early on.
Football Head
Roar Rookie
So the stats you want to back up your article don't actually exist and the (potentially) most useful one to your point is just a hunch?
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Rory is proof that if you can consistently pluck it from above the pack - you're team is likely to score more goals than the other mob. I recall a few weeks back when my team (the dogs) lost to North, despite leading very stat in the game, except for the most important one: North having three talls in the foward 50.
harry houdini
Roar Rookie
Rory Lobb may break that record.
harry houdini
Roar Rookie
He only has another 8 .5 years on his contract left
Gecko
Roar Pro
Michael I don't think Tippett or Cloke are worth the money they are being paid as full forwards because they are lumberers but I agree Tippett is doing a great job as a ruck, last abode of the lumberers (as long as they have a work ethic). In fact, you have to admire guys like Jack Riewoldt and Tippett for being able to adjust their game.
Michael Huston
Guest
Strange comment re Tippett. Lack of athleticism is why he was in the ruck? I thought it was because Pyke was looking like a dinosaur... But agree. Forwards are working harder than ever now and Tippett is one of the guys leading that argument. His work rate is absolutely phenomenal.
Gecko
Roar Pro
KtK if we had stats for contested marks inside forward 50, that would help resolve one component of this debate. If we had stats for % of goals kicked from scooping up ground level balls compared to goals from contested marks, that would help resolve another component of this debate.(I guess these stats would be easy to find and would show a lower % of goals nowadays are being kicked from contested marks). If we had stats for agility, mobility and endurance of the modern full forward compared to that of 4 or ten years ago, that would help resolve the broader aspect of this debate (though we could probably just use the eye test rather than stats).
Gecko
Roar Pro
I'd go for Buddy, Roughead, Cameron, Kennedy, Lynch or Jack Riewoldt up forward. That's favouring a mobile full forward ahead of a contested marking full forward. I wouldn't go for Tippett, Cloke, Hawkins, or Petrie because they aren't mobile enough.
Vocans
Guest
Today's game is tailor-made for a Modra style full forward: fast and balanced at ground level, great lead, and can take the speccies. McKenna, Dunstall and Peter Hudson also come readily to mind.
kick to kick
Guest
Wish this debate could be settled with the right stats but sadly unless you have advanced Champion Data you don't get contested marks inside forward 50 by year. The contested mark stats aren't that useful. They record stats across the whole ground and singling out the leading player each year doesn't convey a real pattern. For instance in 2013 Cloke led with 58. How many were in the forward 50 with him playing as a power forward as opposed to roaming up the ground? I don't know. Second that year was Mike Pyke with 52 and he was a ruckman taking marks across the paddock. As you point out 2011 was a vintage year for Cloke - a remarkable 95 contested marks. It was also a high point for contested marks (again across the whole ground) for the past 10 years - 900 altogether. But Cloke's year was an anomoly. The four previous years saw individual leading totals of around 65 by players like Cloke himself, Reiwoldt and Rocca. Recent years have seen the decline you've pointed out in the leading marker's numbers, but overall contested marks have risen slightly from 25 per round in 2013 to 28 per round on 2015. And here's the really strange bit. In 2016 contested marks have climbed to 43 per round so far - the highest number in any of the past 10 years - on pace to beat 2011. There's another curiosity. 2011 may have seen the biggest total of contested marks but it counter-intuitively saw the fewest marks inside 50 of any year since 2006 - only 809. So that doesn't argue for a time when big forwards were clunking marks inside 50 in the way they don't anymore. In fact the pattern for the decade sees marks inside 50 decline from 1155 in 2006 to the low point of 809 in 2011 then climb again to 1133 last year. Again the absence of a stat for contested marks inside 50 is exasperating but in 2011 37% of all marks across the ground were contested. This year so far its 36% I don't think on these figure you can argue that the contested mark inside 50 has fallen away.
kick to kick
Guest
Tricky
Guest
Rob, given our disposal efficiency over the last 18 months it's very hard to argue we have a death of quality ball users - 3 at best (Sides, Pendles and Treloar). A more convincing argument would be to say we have neither.
richo
Guest
another thing to blame on Clokey. Seriously though your peice is a usual overeaction peice to get clicks and it may work. If you had to pick a team to save your life I dare you to leave out a power forward.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Great points KtK, especially about the relative tackle counts. However the point about defensive pressure was part of a bigger point about mobility and athleticism, and any examination of full forwards over the past four years would reveal that they are becoming more mobile and more athletic. You mention Hogan and Cameron but they are no exception to this rule. Lumbering full forwards (not just Cloke, Hawkins and Tippett but probably also Redpath and Casboult) simply cannot get up and down the ground as fast as is now required. The more one-dimensional they are, the less likely they are to be holding down a regular spot as full forward. You incorrectly argue that I've attributed this change to a single reform of inter change numbers. In fact, I argued that reform of inter change numbers is a key influence (not the only influence) on the rise of Scully and of teams that use space effectively. You argue that 'The stats just do not support a major shift away from powerful specialist forwards.' Let's look further into my stat about contested marking. The league highest in 2011 was 95, in 2012 it was 73; in 2013 it was 58; in 2014 it was 56; in 2015 it was 51. Don't you see a pattern?