Stradbroke Handicap 2016: Preview and tips

Race 9 at Eagle Farm on Saturday (3:40pm AEST) is the time honoured 1400m Group 1 Sprint known as the Stradbroke Handicap, first staged in 1890.

Before the track surface degenerated (mainly from 2011-2014) this race was quite predictable to follow. It was nearly always won by a young or well weighted horse that sat worse than midfield early, and more often than not drew a wide barrier.

That all changed when leader and rails bias came more into play before the redevelopment. It’s almost impossible to predict what type of horse is going to be suited now, with a new surface and the camber of the track having been adjusted.

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Generally speaking newly surfaced tracks tend to suit those on the pace and closer to the rails, and do not suit those who are making their runs wide on the track in the straight from a rearward position.

But maybe patience will be rewarded, because this track has been given a lot more time to settle than the likes of Randwick and Flemington, resurfaced in more recent times – or at least that is what we are led to believe.

Below are the last thirteen winners of the great race with their age, gender and weight carried, followed by some pertinent statistics that might help us find the winner this year.

2015 SRIKANDI 4m 53kg
2014 RIVER LAD 6g 55kg
2013 LINTON 6g 54.5kg
2012 MID SUMMER MUSIC 6m 53.5kg
2011 SINCERO 3g 50.5kg
2010 BLACK PIRANHA 6g 55.5kg
2009 BLACK PIRANHA 5g 55kg
2008 MR BARITONE 6g 53.5kg
2007 SNIPER’S BULLET 3g 50.5kg
2006 LA MONTAGNA 3f 48.5kg
2005 ST BASIL 7g 53kg
2004 THORN PARK 4g 54.5kg
2003 PRIVATE STEER 3f 48.5kg

– Ten of the last 13 winners started at Doomben prior, and six of those came via the Doomben 10000 at Weight For Age (none won that race, and only two placed).

– Seven of the last 11 winners have been aged five or older, and four of the last seven winners have been six years old.

– Having said that, three year olds have won four of the past 12, and the Stradbroke has always been a good race for a quality young horse of that age.

– All of the last 13 winners have dropped in weight 2kg or more, with the average weight drop being 4kg in that period.

– Five of the last eight winners have started $21 or better, and six of the past eight winners have been a double figure price. The average winning price over this period years is approximately $15

– Three of the past five winners have had a significant Gear Change (Srikandi, Linton and Sincero). Two of those ran below par at their previous start, and the other was freshened and coming back in distance (no gear changes this year).

– 13/13 carried less than 56kg. 8/13 carried less than 54kg. Only three horses have won with 56kg or more since 1973, and only two horses have won with more than 56kg since 1973 (Rough Habit 58.5kg and Campaign King 58.5kg).

– Mares (Female horses older than three years of age), did have a very poor record in the race without success in over 70 years, but they have managed to win two of the past four. Keep in mind though that one was at Doomben last year (Srikandi), and the other in 2012 (Mid Summer Music) was perhaps due to some rails bias on the day.

Weather and Track conditions
Fine weather is forecast after an atrocious corresponding Saturday last week, when the rains came and wiped out any hope of a return to racing at this track. There has been no rain at all this week, and there is even talk of the sprinklers coming out to soften the surface before Saturday. We should get an ideal surface (probably a good rated 4) for a top class day of racing.

Race Tempo
A fast speed looks almost guaranteed due to the mare Two Blue being engaged. She has set up fast run races in both the BTC Cup and Doomben 10000 so far this winter, and we can expect the same again here.

There should be no respite up front either with Charmed Harmony a natural leader, and Hooked another on pacer that should keep that pair company.

It’s quite possible the three year old Takedown will add further speed to the mix, and Malaguerra is likely to be close to the leaders.

We should get a truly run race, which in theory shouldn’t disadvantage any runner. If the new surface does suit the on pacers though their chances are obviously heightened, so it might pay to watch the earlier races and see what transpires.

Analysis and assessed odds
1. Black Heart Bart – From a historical weights perspective he really does look to have the job ahead of him to win this, and that is also the case looking at weight comparisons with horses he has met and beaten recently. Nevertheless this is his best distance, and he is well suited with three weeks or more between runs. His ability might even be a little underrated and he is right at the top of his game at the moment, in the hands of master trainer Darren Weir. $7.50

2. Delectation – I couldn’t quite have him at the 1350m of the Doomben 10000, and the 1400m of the Stradbroke is just that little bit more of a stamina test for him especially under handicap conditions. $20

3. Malaguerra – He is a prolific winning horse nowadays (since being gelded) and his win in the BTC Cup confirmed he can compete at Weight For Age level. Whether he can give weight to some pretty decent horses here remains to be seen. He got the job done at Doomben but was probably a little lucky Fell Swoop got trapped so wide throughout that race, and Dothraki failed to run out a strong 1200m. $9

4. Music Magnate – Was strong at the end of 1350m last start and repelled the threat of Azkadellia in the straight. He meets her 1kg better for that run so I can’t quite comprehend that he is twice her price again in this. He has drawn to advantage so it’s just a matter of whether he can concede weight to others who are down on, or near the minimum weight. Had he not won the Doomben 10000 he would be getting into the race with about 52kg, so it’s a difficult ask for him in a harder race. $9

5. Azkadellia – No doubt she is going to be better suited at the roomier track here at Eagle Farm and she has drawn a barrier that should make her competitive. I just can’t get warm at the price she is, and just think she is a tiny bit overrated. Yes she’s a top mare, but she hasn’t won against all sexes at Group 1 level yet. And she is going to have to carry more weight to win this than any mare has been able to do in the modern era. $8

6. Charlie Boy – Looks a great historical fit and a repeat of his Doomben 10000 run will make him very competitive. I still have it in the back of my mind that he has only ever won first and second up though, and he did fail in this race last year at Doomben, after a super 10000 run. Not overly reliable but a win wouldn’t surprise too much. $20

7. Under The Louvre – Looks weighted to beat Black Heart Bart off their Goodwood Handicap meeting three weeks ago (meets 2kg better), and if the track returns to it’s former glory of rearward horses winning then he will be hard to stop. My dilemma with him is his ability to run a strong 1400m, even though he has won this trip at Caulfield. The timing of the ride is going to be critical to his chances, as will the breaks going his way. As good a chance as the topweight is in my opinion. $7.50

8. Sacred Star – The New Zealander was quite poor in the BTC Cup, but he should prefer the roomier circuit here, and he might have needed the run last start given the comments of his trainer pre race. He was the unlucky horse in this race in 2014 (tactics awry), but just not sure he is in the same form now, two years on. $25

9. Big Money – Probably better suited at 1200m against these, and might just lack the class to win anyway. Being a small horse he will appreciate the 54kg he carries here though, and he does meet Black Heart Bart on far better weight terms for just over a four length defeat in the Goodwood. And he is very honest. One for the multiples from a good barrier if he can run out a strong 1400m, which is also a query. $33

10. Hooked – His trainer was very critical of the ride in the Doomben 10000 where he faded out of contention from the turn on, after taking on the leader to that point. Better suited in a handicap race at this distance, although he doesn’t seem best suited up on the pace in a fast run race. He is another that looks a good historical fit though and he is going to be one of the the forgotten horse in the betting market. $25

11. Charmed Harmony – Impossible to promote his chances off a last start failure and he probably lacks the class to be competitive, especially in a race which contains a few other on pacers. $101

12. Counterattack – This Chris Waller-trained three year old has eased in the market a little after drawing poorly, but it might not be that big an issue given his versatile racing pattern. He was very good when winning last start after sitting three wide throughout, and his age group often excel in this race. The question is, is he well weighted on 52.5kg? No three year old has won this race with more than 50.5kg in fairly recent times, but those that have won with less weight have done so with some ease (Never Undercharge, Sniper’s Bullet, Private Steer, La Montagna). I’m not sure he is better than any of those three year olds, but he might not have to be, and he is probably on a par with his same aged stablemate Japonisme. That horse was only 1.4 lengths behind Black Heart Bart in the Newmarket at Flemington in March with a 1.5kg weight concession. In this race Counterattack gets a hefty 5.5kg from Black Heart Bart which suggests that he should have his measure quite comfortably, with ordinary luck. Also worth noting he is 2-2/4 with Blinkers on, and the two placings have been at Group 1 level (against his own age), and he is a three quarter brother to Group 1 winners Red Tracer and Shellscrape. He is going to be very hard to beat with Joao Moreira aboard. $5.50

13. Precious Gem – has been in stellar form since a stable change to Henry Dwyer, and this is probably her best distance. She has drawn the outside barrier though and it doesn’t seem that the Autumn mares form in Victoria/South Australia is good enough to recommend her to win this. She only just beat home Sheidel last start, who was then five lengths astern of Black Heart Bart in the Goodwood. She is capable of getting closer to him with a greater weights advantage than Sheidel here, but she only gets 2kg weight relief from Under The Louvre. That doesn’t seem enough. $33

14. Two Blue – She could be in this race for a long way from her inside barrier after drawing wide, and having to burn across early in both the BTC Cup and Doomben 10000. Her 0-2/7 from 12 runs at this distance doesn’t enthuse though, and the last run might have been a gutbuster. $66

15. Kaepernick – Comes into this race in stellar form, and his weight formlines around horses like The Quarterback, Good Project and That’s A Good Idea suggest he is very well in here against the likes of Black Heart Bart, Music Magnate and Azkadellia. His preparation hasn’t been ideal coming in to this race second up, but he did trial very well at the Sunshine Coast on Tuesday, and the 28 day break would seem okay for him as he is yet to win a race with less than three weeks between runs. He has to overcome a wide barrier, and might need the track to be unbiased to figure, but he looks the best weighted horse on potential. $6

16. Artlee – Is the forgotten horse in the race, but it might be wise not to ignore his chances. He has his regular jockey Matthew Bell back aboard, and of all the realistic light weight chances close to the minimum, he is the only one to have drawn an inside barrier. He has also been overracing at his past three starts so a cosy run with cover tucked away on the rail in a fast run race could be the difference between a win and a loss. Interestingly even though his last run was a disappointment, he still ran comfortably better time than Counterattack did when winning the three-year-old Fred Best at the same distance on the same day last start. And he is one of the few light weighted horses to have won at the distance. If his mindsight is right he can give this race an almighty shake, and his odds are far more generous than they should be. He meets Music Magnate 4.5kg better for a three length defeat four starts back, and he was a little unlucky in that race. The weight turnaround is at least enough to even the ledger between the two horses. $7

17. Takedown – Meets Counterattack 2kg better for a 1.25 length defeat last start, and will make his own luck from up on the pace. He is a 1400m winner, but I just doubt he is as good a horse at this trip than he is over 1200m, and Counterattack seemed to have the tougher run last start and was still able to overwhelm him in the straight. He might look the winner at the 200m, but from there to the finish is going to be the big ask for him. $20

18. The Virginian – I’m absolutely thrilled this horse has got a start in the race because he has serious potential, and adds a bit of intrigue in my opinion, especially at odds of 200-1. He should have finished a lot closer to Takedown two starts ago when he got caught hopelessly wide on a Doomben track, that is unforgiving in that respect. He followed that up with an expected easy win at the Gold Coast in a Class 1 race bettering 1.09.00 for 1200m. He skips eight or nine classes to run in this race, which is ridiculous in essence, but at least he has winning form, and could be better suited at 1400m that 1200m. And he is a three year old which is a historical plus. Probably foolhardy to suggest he could win, or even run a place, but it’s hard to resist not placing a small bet on him, all the same. I’m not going to die wondering! $25

Prediction and bet suggestion
Looking at the historical figures above I’m inclined to pick out those that are carrying less than 55kg that appear to have a realistic winning chance. My assessed odds are a further indication of how I think the race will pan out. My top four:

1. Counterattack – His form around Japonisme has swayed me a little along with his ability to race handy, if necessary on this new surface. His age has a great record in the race and he appears to be still improving.

2. Kaepernick – is over the odds at $14 earlier this week and he has a great winning chance with this weight given the formlines he possesses. Had he drawn a little better, and had a more ideal preparation I would have him easily on top. He is well weighted though and is a year older than Counterattack so might have the edge from a weights perspective.

3. Artlee – needs to find his best form which was probably this time last year. It’s possible with a familiar jockey aboard and he might be the lighter weighted horse that gets the best run in the race.

4. Under The Louvre – is also very well weighted, and only needs to run the distance right out to be a winning chance. And he is a good price.

I will be backing my top two horses for a win and Artlee Each Way, and am also keen to box that Trifecta. A small interest bet on The Virginian is also a necessity for me. The return would be enormous if he was to cause a massive boilover, or run well enough to place.