Queensland’s biggest race-day is upon us, with the added complexity that comes with the unveiling of a new Eagle Farm track that was rain-affected enough to call off a meeting last week, but has since been baked by a week of sun.
The Stradbroke is the feature, almost always producing a memorable race, and usually a winner at big odds.
The recent weight-for-age performers in the field that have to carry more weight than the rest are Black Heart Bart up the top, Delectation, Malaguerra, Music Magnate and Azkadellia.
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Black Heart Bart is the form horse in Australia, taking his show on the road across the racing states, and has earned his 58kgs, 4.5kgs more than he carried in the race last year when running last.
Music Magnate graduated to the big leagues in taking out the Doomben 10,000 with an explosive turn of foot, accounting for Azkadellia, who will be better for the run but meets him 1kg worse for it. How will the form turn out of a race that was unlike most we’ve ever seen?
Charlie Boy ran well in third there and drops an appreciable 4.5kgs, but consistency isn’t his forte. Delectation is improving with every run, but will need to be to take this out.
Hooked and Two Blue were part of the crazy speed battle in the Doomben 10,000, carving out hectic opening sectionals, and could bounce back at big odds carrying low weights.
Malaguerra comes into this off a month freshen from his BTC Cup win, but is up to 56kgs quickly in this sort of race. The talent is certainly there, and he doesn’t mind a scrap. Sacred Star needs to show more than he did in that race, but can’t be the worst 50-1 shot to ever hit the track.
The form behind Black Heart Bart makes for interesting reading, particularly at the weights and the odds.
Charmed Harmony meets him 3.5kg’s better for being narrowly run down in the Victoria Handicap three back, but has flopped badly when going clockwise in the past, including last start.
Under The Louvre has been running placings in Group 1 company for what feels like forever, and meets Black Heart Bart 2kgs better for running him to half a length in the Goodwood last start. There are question marks over whether he is at his most powerful at the end of 1400m.
Counterattack and Takedown have Japonisme form, which ties them favourably into Malaguerra and indirectly through Black Heart Bart and several other main chances. Both three year olds will relish the light weights they’ve been allotted, but should probably be closer in the odds.
Precious Gem deserves her chance in a race of this profile, coming off a Group 1 win of her own, and will run better than her 50-1 quote suggests if the month between runs is no issue.
Kaepernick creates interest as the Hawkes runners often do, but has failed tougher tests than this when fancied, but looks a more mature and powerful galloper now. Artlee is in a similar boat, lightly raced for a five year old, and gets significant weight relief after performing respectably at WFA behind the likes of Fell Swoop and Malaguerra.
It’s a flat disgrace that a horse like The Virginian is allowed in the field.
Selections: 1.Music Magnate 2.Takedown 3.Artlee 4.Under the Louvre
The Queensland Derby is one of the support features on the Stradbroke card, a $600,000 Group 1 over 2400m for the three year old stayers.
The Grand Prix is always the key lead-up race, and this year is no exception the trifecta from that race occupying the first three positions in betting after less than half a length covered them across the line.
SA Derby winner Howard Be Thy Name holds favouritism currently, off the back off a tempo-affected third in the Grand Prix. Mackintosh took the race out, his third win in a row after assuming an on-pace position, which he’ll do again from barrier five.
We should get used to Weir v Waller in these sort of races, masters of placing their horses to advantage and holding them back from the stronger Group 1’s if they’re not up to it.
Eagle Way split Howard Be Thy Name and Mackintosh after being flushed out earlier than ideal, and he looks to be craving every bit of the extra 200m he’ll be afforded in this.
Eschiele was another eye-catcher, coming from the tail for a closing fourth, and the question for him is whether even 2400m is long enough. Brazen continues to run honestly but lacking that class edge at this level.
Etymology ran second in the SA Derby behind Howard Be Thy Name, but hasn’t had the bridging run in between like that colt. He’s a player, but will jump from the widest gate.
Encosta Line and Rodrico are coming in off city wins down in Sydney, the former much more impressive, and also dominant over the latter two back. Waller-Bowman can’t be underestimated.
Selections: 1.Eagle Way 2.Eschiele 3.Howard Be Thy Name 4.Encosta Line
The JJ Atkins is another $600,000 Group 1, for the two year olds over the mile. The Sires Produce at Doomben from a fortnight ago provides over half the field, including the first six in betting.
Attention, from the Snowden yard, was the winner of the key lead-up, and is putting together the classic Queensland two-year-old preparation. He’ll once again put himself in the race from a good barrier and be hard to get passed, and thus makes strong each-way appeal at the $7.
Dreams Aplenty and Nikitas filled the placings behind Attention, but punters have directed their money elsewhere. Nikitas is backing up that second to Capitalist in the Magic Millions. Dreams Aplenty will again try to defy them all from the front, and.
Souchez wasn’t cleanly away and was beaten odds-on favourite, and has filled the bookies bags at his last couple, but doesn’t need much to change to reverse the result. Sacred Elixir motored home from last to be in the busy finish, and has been installed as favourite accordingly with the extra furlong and bigger track sure to be to his liking.
The filly Candika was another to impress and was arguably looking for the mile already. She ran behind Capitalist and Nikitas back in January, peaks now and is ready to win at a value quote.
Further back in the Sires, but not disgraced after being back and wide was Cadogan, who should see a friendlier run after drawing more kindly. His previous win promised better things.
Jaw of Steel and Barbass are bringing metro form of Melbourne and Sydney to the race, and should give a decent account of themselves, and might be capable of springing a surprise if everything goes their way and the Sires Produce form doesn’t hold up.
Team Hawks loves to hit these races with a lightly-raced type, and Redouble is their representative here, albeit coming through the B-form and an awkward jump in distance from 1200m to the mile in three weeks.
Selections: 1.Sacred Elixir 2.Attention 3.Souchez 4.Candika
The Queensland Oaks has been held over from last week’s abandoned Doomben meeting, and last week’s preview still stands, albeit with an expected good track now instead of the anticipated heavy last week.
Selections: 1.Falkenberg 2.Dawnie Perfect 3.Ambience 4.Romantic Maid
michael steel
Guest
One month before that race, one of my smarter punting cohorts said "The handicapping is such now that every horse in a maiden or class 1 carries 58 kg, a class 1 horse will soon win a group 1 at set weights,". When Curata Storm won he went "There you go".
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Go the Virginian! Although Cam never reads or responds to anything after about 11 am friday so I'll stir him up next week ha ha u there BP?
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great stuff andrew some off ur best mate cheers
michael steel
Guest
He may have come third but I'm with you Cam. Standards. Feel the same about Shamus Award who made a mockery of our so called best WFA race.
Razzar
Guest
Etymology has looked a one-batter for quite a while. Make sure you get odds you like. As I see him, he'd make a good Jumper in future.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Etymology is a huge chance in the Derby, provided he's ridden a bit more quietly. I thought he was left a bit of a sitting duck at Morphetteville, while Tavi Bay and Romantic Maid in the Oaks.
andrew
Guest
Apologies for absence last week, been patchy with work and renovations winding up. but normal service back in order now. Flem 3. runson won with consummate ease first up and did it impressively. Sitting back in the field, no cart up, rounding them up very quickly around the home bend out wide, sprinting clear, and eased down. That win was no surprise though, given his form last prep. fair to say he has come back at a higher level now had to time to develop physically and get some race conditioning. I have every confidence he can measure up this grade based on that first up win. but the form from its 1st prep indicates this level is clearly within him also. a win over gibbon on debut is good, gibbon has run well in city races over autumn at this grade. Chase the horizon is a group class horse for mine, who had a super prep over summer. 4. holy cow is placed to win and gets a lot of things in her favour. Firstly, she likes to get back in the field, but from gate 5, reckon she can settle a few pairs closer. Say, 6th or 7th one of the rail. She gets a good tempo which also suits, as no’s 1, 2, 3, 4 (to varying degrees) all race forward, and two of these are drawn inside her which ensures a cosy run in transit. The 3kg claim can be a bit of fools gold, but it can help also. she does get the adv of only 1 other runner in the race having a claim, pulling her away from the rest a bit in the weights. Im a bit dubious on the time to test- amarela formline which I thought was a very weak race. holy cow brings what I think is clearly the strongest formline into this. it is notable that 8 of her runs have been in stks grade – and some of them very good. this prep, her only 2 runs outside stks grade have been very good. a win with 61kgs (over fife who has since run well) and 3rd. she ran pretty well last start in a strong race, of very good depth (no stars though) in ADL, where the weight scale was against her. both her flem run in stks grade as a 3yo have been very good. cant see the big track being a negative. Drop back to 1800m is ideal, she will be strong through the line. Wet track no worries. Im pretty keen on her chances. After that, the meeting gets tough. I have been with master or arts all prep, so will be sticking firm. Good luck for quaddy players in wide fields on a day when hail is forecast. Im passing. Bris 2. Hi World ran pretty well first up in a really fast run race at caul, and has had 5 weeks in between runs and up to a mile. Had a trial at gold coast in between. He was to race last sat. below is his overall form card. Tried at the top level in the spring but didn’t measure up. 3yo season was very progressive and highly touted by moody at the time. He actually beat home volkstock in the memsi and makybe at even weights. Freedman stable obv doing well up in bris. Very well weighted under this scale for a dual group winner, and both those wins come clockwise direction. Wide draw means entitled to a price, but im willing to invest at $12 or so. 6. real love is going super. But think she just might find one better. For a mare, she is creeping up in the weights now. it’s a tough ask. She is tough, and consistent and reliable. For that reason, I reckon she is a very good place bet. You will get $1.90 best tote. That is a nice parlay for some multi’s. 8. howard be thy name, got a big write up from me a few weeks back, and he ran really well. no need to repeat it. Last time had to change course in the straight, and weir said he was underdone as had eased off work from SA derby win. ideal to draw to sit first 4 or 5, and rawiller has been riding well up in QLD when up there last few times for weir. I wont be jumping off. 9. under the louvre meets black heart bart 2kgs better from goodwood, and both runs were of equal merit for diff reasons. Bart was ridden for luck and got it, but had the sprint to capitalise. Lourvre covered a lot of ground out wide. I think its fair to say bart is the ‘benchmark’ horse in this given his form in Newmarket, all aged and goodwood. 4th run for the prep in his 4th state, with 58kgs in a Stradbroke is an ask. Lourve is a bit of a non-winner, so im thinking this is heavily skewed place bet. But he will be $4.50 or to run into the placings, as he so often does. He has had 4 runs at Group 1 level (all in hcps) and been placed all 4 times. Dunn is a good engagement. No doubt he will do what he always does. A few coins to win, as one day, the breaks will go his way. He is the type of horse more likely to ‘frustrate’ the legion of punters who have lost on him at short odds, by bobbing up and winning a straddy at $13. Sun 6. Sure you can. Has been teasing me, but running well without luck or in higher grade races. She is due for a win, and strikes a very winnable race here, and race with very few winning chances 8. self sense ran a tipper in the Echuca cup first up and can see no reason why he wont improve off that, esp out to the mile. Cant believe he has come up $21 and $6 to place. Im taking some of that. Twice a winner 2nd up, Kilmore cup winner over the mile, and handles all track conditions. Best play: Holy Cow, Real Love to place, Howard by they name to place. around $14 this treble.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Curata Storm came off a class one win at Hawkesbury to win a BMW.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Sorry that was the Gold Coast actually. But he had no hope of winning the race trapped 4 wide throughout wherever it was. He didn't capitulate to be only beaten 3.5L.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Oh come on Cam Shamus Award as a Maiden got a run in the Cox Plate, our premier race- That was a disgrace and look what happened. . Maybe if Doomben wasn't such a biased track this horse might have a Group 3 placing to his name. From what I understand he was the next in line for a start. Not as if the Committee chose it to run.
Cameron Rose
Expert
You can't be having runners coming off a class 1 win into a premium race. We've got to have some kind of standards!
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
The Virginian- Ouch! I'm going to have to disagree with you there. He probably wouldn't have got a run had the race not fallen away so much. But he has a lot of potential and for me adds a bit of intrigue. He should have finished a couple of lengths closer to Takedown 3 starts ago so why shouldn't he be allowed to take his place?
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great stuff as usual Cam,I'm going to have a crack at the following horses * R6 no 11 Astronomos * R7 no 2 Attention * R8 no 6 Encosta Line * R9 no 12 Counterattack * R10 no's 6 Sebring Sally & no 12 Falkenberg.......Am I barking up the wrong tree Roarers? Good luck to all & enjoy your punting :)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good stuff Razzar, and I agree with all of those sentiments. To me it's an odds race, hence why I've littered my placings with horse at big odds. I was tossing up throwing Precious Gem in too, she's genuine. I do expect Azkadellia to come on a bit, but I'm happy to stick with the horse still well on the up in Music Magnate. He's making great strides every time we see him, and his versatility is a huge plus, both on any ground and within the run.
Razzar
Guest
Good preview Cam. Well what Strady we have this year. Just hope the new track races evenly for all participants. With good speed here in hcp conditions, it's not hard for even an unlikely runner to surprise. I'm hoping though, the cream will rise to the top. At a 5/1 rating Music Magnate should get close to a peach of a run, I expect him to look the winner somewhere in straight. He looks a big strider, which often means it's hard to conquer such a runner. He's also 4th up after winning the 10,000 in good time. I also rate Malaguerra a 5/1 rating. Just really one hiccup this campaign. Should get good run here, and know doubt can win. Under the Louvre is well weighted, now 3rd up has form to win. Just needs clean run from back. 8/1 chance. Black heart Bart. Can win, but the 58kgs is an impost. This does look a bit stronger than the Goodwood he won. And big money came for him late in betting, suggesting it was his Goodwood to lose. 8/1 rating. Azkedellia has had quite a drawn out campaign. She never stopped trying to nail Music Magnate in the 10.000. She is definately honest, but meeting the boys again, where she often finds one of them better, so I find it hard to rate her better than an 8/1 chance. If there is a smokey in this race, I'd be having something on Precious Gem. This mare holds form well, her Sangster win was no fluke. She settles well back, so don't expect the race caller to mention her name, unless she is steaming down the outside at the 100. Yes I better settle down. I rate her a 25/1 shot. ....but I did take the 50s. Good luck punters....have a great day