The Queensland Oaks, while hardly the most esteemed Group 1 race we have in Australia, can produce a nice winner, and it will forever have more cache for having Winx on the winners list.
The turn of the century saw some nice fillies go on to become strong stayers, with Ethereal the most famous of these, the last horse to win the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double after her 2001 Oaks win.
Zagalia in 2003 and Vouvray in 2004 went on to top five finishes in the Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup respectively. Eskimo Queen, winner in 2007, also tasted Group 1 success as an older mare, taking out the 2008 Coolmore Classic.
This year’s event is as wide open as any Group 1 we’ve seen in recent memory, with $7.50 the field currently being bet, and we may even see a point higher on the day as punters try and work out which of the many chances will emerge victorious.
More than half of the field has used the Doomben Roses as the lead-up, understandably so given it has produced nine of the last 11 winners, with most of those running in the top four.
The Roses produced a boilover this year, with Kebede winning at $19 from 100-1 shot Sebring Sally, with favourite Imposing Lass in third. The race was dominated by those in the front third of the field, with the backmarkers not given their equal chance, so the prospect of a stronger tempo and the longer straight at Eagle Farm may suit.
That said, who knows how the new track will play, and the prospect of heavy rain will add another layer of complexity to proceedings.
The Roses looks solid form. The fourth horse home, behind the three above, was the on-pace filly Self Esteem. Her last five runs have been between 1800-2400 metres, and she’s run well in all of them, including the ATC Oaks, the Vinery Stud and Gold Coast Bracelet.
The two eye-catchers from the tail of the field were Dawnie Perfect and Falkenberg, who came from last and near last to run sixth and seventh respectively, only beaten a few lengths, a similar story to that they encountered in the Bracelet.
These two look to be peaking at the right time and are due to get a race run to suit.
Ambience ran down the track in the Roses after copping interference and jockey James McDonald has admitted to not extending her in the run to the line. She has a third in the VRC Oaks and a second in the ATC Oaks on her CV, and can go one better here, especially given wet ground shouldn’t be an issue.
Three fillies are coming up from Adelaide, having run in the 2500-metre SA Classic.
Robert Smerdon’s Chabud was the strong winner of that race, and if she was to triumph here, it would be a feat of the highest training order. This will be her 11th start this preparation, dating back to December, with her ninth jockey, and she’ll have raced at eight different tracks in five different states this campaign. Talk about a bonny filly.
Ashlee Marie was tough in second at Morphettville, while Beluga Blue was eating up the ground late there, and might be value.
To round out the field are half a dozen last start winners from six different races, and in fact, six different tracks, including first emergency Provocative. That Kiwi filly is right in the market and must be respected if she gets a run.
Another New Zealand filly is among the equal favourites, Romantic Maid from the Roger James yard. Not sure there was much behind her at Randwick, so she’ll need to find a new level.
Tavi Bay has been brought along patiently by Henry Dwyer at Caulfield, who is a rising star of the training ranks and likes to target the Queensland winter carnival. She has a watch placed on her.
The track, the weather, the field. This race is truly anyone’s guess, and you’re getting great value if you’re confident about a horse. It might be best to stick to the proven class or the horses with the best send of timing about them.
Selections
1. Ambience
2. Falkenberg
3. Dawnie Perfect
4. Romantic Maid
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