Current wisdom among the AFL community is that Hawthorn are well placed in their quest for a historic fourth premiership in a row, and building nicely to peak in September.
They are yet to play their best football, but ended a round inside the top four for the first time in 2016.
They’ll further entrench themselves with a win over Gold Coast this Sunday, and hit the bye with an 11-3 win-loss record. It’s an impressive number if looked at in isolation.
As ever, though, numbers don’t tell the full story.
No-one wants to be the first to say it, so I’m going to – Hawthorn will not be winning the flag this year.
The Hawks are yet to put in a truly impressive performance to stamp themselves as premiership contenders, but the weight of their recent history does that for them in the eyes of most. And given what they’ve so spectacularly achieved in the last three or four years, no-one can blame them.
People often get hung up on the past at the expense of the present. Perception lags well behind reality.
Geelong trounced Hawthorn in Round 1, blitzing them early and then again late to record a comprehensive victory. We’ve seen the relative form from that match stand up over the season so far.
The Hawks beat West Coast at the MCG in Round 2 thanks to an early onslaught, but the Eagles’ record away from home and against fellow top eight sides since then has made that scalp less impressive with every passing week.
Hawthorn’s win over the Western Bulldogs at Etihad in Round 3 was their most meritorious, even if they did pull off last-gasp heroics to secure the victory. They kicked straight when it counted, and Tom Boyd couldn’t.
They struggled to put away St Kilda in Round 4, and Saints fans will go their entire lives unable to recover from the injustice visited upon them by the umpires that day. The Hawks were outplayed by Adelaide at the MCG in Round 5, but clawed their way to a third consecutive three-point victory – proof of their grit, determination and will, but more evidence that they were lacking in other areas.
Credit to them for getting those wins when few others could, but it felt unsustainable, and so it proved when they were humiliated by GWS in Round 6, to the tune of 75 points. The Giants ran riot that day, and it looked like the mighty had fallen. Because they had.
Rounds 7 and 8 saw two of the more unimpressive wins seen over stragglers Richmond and Fremantle this year, less than a couple of goals up against the Tigers at three-quarter time, and down to the Dockers at half-time before putting in one quarter of very good football to secure victory on each occasion.
Another top team came along in Round 9, in the form of Sydney. The Swans kicked the first goal and were never headed from that point on, pressuring the Hawks to a point they couldn’t handle, forcing turnovers and making them pay.
In Round 10, Hawthorn struggled to shake off Brisbane, which every other team has been doing easily, again relying on a strong last term after only being two goals to the good at three-quarter time.
Round 11 saw one of Hawthorn’s better wins, when their experience and smarts were too much for an inconsistent Melbourne in the wet. Round 12 caught Essendon at their lowest ebb, and a comfortable victory ensued against a team that was beaten before they arrived.
The cards lined up perfectly for the Hawks last Friday too, in their Round 13 clash against North Melbourne, another team whose ladder position is a few spaces above their true ability.
The Roos were missing half of their ten most important players, including their engine room and two best forwards, yet were still able to beat Hawthorn in general play, and were defeated only by their inability to convert their chances, with some horrendous inaccuracy in front of goal.
If anything, North proved their worth, and the Hawks lost ground in the respectability stakes.
“But they still won, and that’s all that counts,” many will say. And that’s true in terms of the four points week to week. People find it very hard to look beyond the black and white of the ladder. But it simply won’t measure up in terms of being a flag contender.
How often do we hear that the best sides play four quarters of footy, and also that form can’t be flicked on like a switch? While we despise cliché here at The Roar, these are common AFL sayings because they do stand up.
Quarters won and percentage are excellent gauges of which teams are playing the best football for the longest.
Looking at 2006-2015, all ten premiers were in the top three for ‘quarters won’ across the home-and-away season. Eight of them were in the top two.
Of the 20 grand finalists in those ten years, 16 of them were ranked first or second for quarters won. Two others were ranked third (Geelong in 2011, West Coast 2006), and two others fifth (Fremantle 2013, Port Adelaide 2007).
Hawthorn themselves have been league-leaders in the quarters won category over the last five years, ranked first in 2015, 2013 and 2012, and second in 2014 and 2011, when they’ve accumulated three premierships, one losing grand final and one (unlucky?) preliminary final loss.
The Hawks are currently ranked sixth for quarters won in 2016. They’re well off the pace.
Percentage is even more damning. Nineteen of those last 20 grand finalists have been in the top three for percentage. The last nine premiers have all been ranked in the top two.
The Hawks currently have the eighth best percentage in the league. No thanks.
They are not playing good football as often as their rivals, nor sustaining it for long enough.
They need to either improve out of sight in the second half of the year, or become an incredible statistical outlier. Both are possible, of course, but you wouldn’t want to bank on it.
And where is this improvement going to come from?
Injuries haven’t been a big issue for the Hawks. They’ve had ten players play every game, with another five to have only missed one. That puts them in the top few clubs in terms of stability.
Jarryd Roughead hasn’t been seen this year, and won’t be, so we can’t consider him part of an eventual best 22. Luke Hodge is a champion of the game, and has only played four matches. He’ll improve them.
Outside of those two, there is only one other in their best 20 players to have missed more than two games, which is Brad Hill, and some have suggested his form has been ordinary enough to warrant a spell in the VFL.
Much has been made of how often Hawthorn are being beaten in contested possession, and in fact losing that stat by big margins. And it’s true, they’d like to be winning more football at the coalface.
But their ball movement is far less slick than it has been in previous seasons. They are struggling to put together chains of possession that were their forte in the premiership years.
The quarters won stat showed Hawthorn to have been a powerhouse since 2011. In the five completed seasons including that year, the Hawks finished first, second, third, first, first for overall disposals. Control of the football was the foundation for everything they did.
This year, they are 11th. That’s right, 11th. Their dominance was built upon control. And that has now crumbled.
Hawthorn have played the three best sides in the comp, Geelong, Sydney and GWS, and have been unable to beat any of them, a 0-3 record at a percentage of 65.3.
The fourth and fifth best teams are Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs, and the Hawks won both by three points, both times off the last kick of the game. The sixth best team is North, who were crippled and wounded on the weekend, and still nearly won.
No, the Hawks won’t be winning the flag this year, and they won’t even be playing off for it. If they finish between fifth and eighth, they’ll need to win four finals in a row against quality opposition, at least one or two of them away from home. There is enough evidence this year to confirm they aren’t capable of it.
If their luck holds and opposition sides continue to hand victories to them, and Hawthorn do somehow squeeze into a top-four spot, they’ll run into a team they can’t beat in the first week, and then have to defy the odds from there.
All kudos to Hawthorn for what they achieved across 2013-15, remarkably skilled and resilient as they were. Everyone involved deserves the utmost credit.
But we can’t dwell on the past, in football or in life. Otherwise, Richmond supporters would still be celebrating the 1980 premiership. Given I am one, maybe we should.
But 2016 is the season upon us, and the flag is up for grabs. Just not for Hawthorn.
heath
Guest
Hawks on top of ladder now
Dalton
Guest
Sitting top and 11-3. Had 4 debutants this season and had 9 players uner 40 games play for them.. including 8 in one game.. Fact they are sitting TOP is a testament to this team and what it can do. article only highlighting negatives..
jacques of Liliydale
Guest
Post another post in late August and we can see how the landscape looks. The Cats are flying but I worry if anything should happen to Corey Enwright, Andrew Mackie, Harry T or Lonergan. They hold the team together so pray that they stay healthy. The cream always rises to the top and late season form is the only guide you can go by. I think the Cattery fears Hawthorn more than any other team in Finals and unlike most of the doomsayers here I'm pretty sure Hawthorn will again be in a preliminary final, along with the Cats, Sydney and Adelaide. Eagles are hopeless, North are shot already, Port not as menacing as a few years ago, GWS is the enigma, on their day they can beat anyone of the other finalists but it depends how long they can stay in the game come finals time.
jacques of Liliydale
Guest
Come on Andrew, you can't put North on the same level as Hawthorn., pretty disrespectful to a triple premiership group. North are fading already, their exalted top position due to all or most games being played under a roof. Bigger grounds will find them out again. No one has factored in the Clarkson factor when talking about finals, he knows his players and the best way to get the most out of them. They are still winning and its still only June, lets see what late August brings before writing that team off.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
2015 and 2014 were different teams in different years too. When did Geelong last win 2 in a row? And when have they won 3 in a row?
Richard
Guest
Relevance you say?? It`s in the AFL history books like 1989 and 2008 ... BOOM ....
Rob
Guest
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how-hawthorn-is-defying-the-data-to-remain-premiership-contenders-in-2016-afl-season/news-story/1d74c81cbb313f1aea4dfb3f8a60ac6b Above makes for interesting reading! For the record, i think the Cats and Swans are the two best sides this year based on their wins and against the opposition they have played and the form they have shown and if i was a betting man my money would be on those two sides to play off for the Grand Final. One thing i wouldn't bet on though is a hat trick premiership winning football side that has a knack of proving the doubters wrong. The unlikely happens more times than we think, i mean who would've thought Hawthorn could travel to WA 3 times in the last 8 weeks and twice in the finals and reach the Grand Final and win it?!
Rob
Guest
I love how you consistently bang on about how people are 'hung up' on the past and that people cant 'dwell on the past' yet you use the past to further your argument ?!? You then say if Hawthorn were so fortunate to stay top 4 in the finals they will play a side they can't beat, who is this side you speak of, is it Sydney who they match up well against and the Sydney that also got touched up by GWS, is it Geelong, the same Geelong side that could not beat Carlton and Collingwood this year or is it GWS, the side who has yet to play finals, anywhere and still has a suspect away record ?!? You are quoting past important stats like quarters won, percentage and overall disposals but you are quoting final stats at seasons end and there is plenty of past evidence that stats can take a drastic shift with 10 rounds to go. There are lots of variables to take into account, form of other sides in the top 8 dipping, key injuries to those sides and tougher draws to come for some sides. It was only in round 6 that the Bulldogs had a massive percentage of 155.8% as opposed to Hawthorn's measly 91.8%, guess what have a look now , Bulldogs 119.8% v Hawks 118.4%. That was only 8 rounds ago and the gap closed a whopping 64%! Btw the Hawk's percentage has lifted in that time by 26.6% and Geelong's has dropped 31.4%. My question to you is, based on your 'expert' opinion, why does it seem so impossible to you that Hawthorn couldn't lift their percentage rate another 25%, which at this stage would have them holding the number one percentage total, if they were to do so?? Last question to you, Cameron Rose, could you kindly let us know, honestly, who in fact did you think would be eventual premiers in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 and did your premiership picks change after round 14 and did it change on Grand Final day, hmmmm i wonder!?
Andrew
Guest
Interesting article from Fox Footy today that's worth considering. http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how-hawthorn-is-defying-the-data-to-remain-premiership-contenders-in-2016-afl-season/news-story/1d74c81cbb313f1aea4dfb3f8a60ac6b I agree with your summation in principle, but I'm withholding judgement until we see how some of the next 5 - 6 week rolls out. I also think that many teams would be nervous playing us in finals and if we make top 4, then we've earned it and should be considered a chance not only because we made it but for the weight that experience will lend us.
Matt
Guest
As I Hawthorn supporter, I agree with this comment and much of what Cameron Rose has to say. But you are absolutely right Nev: there are no absolute standouts this year; the Hawks know how to rise to the occasion of the really big MCG games; and Clarkson manages to strategize in a way that brings them to their prime when it's really needed. They are clearly down this year. But they are certainly not out yet. Is it unbelievable that they could beat Sydney, Geelong or the GWS? Certainly not.
Andre
Guest
Disagree completely with your assessment. Firstly, Hawthorn has now played every single team in the top 8. That is a very hard draw, yet they have ONLY LOST 3 GAMES. No other team has had the same difficult draw. not only that but the GWS game you cherrypicked was essentially after playing a whole host of top 8 sides in a row with the exception of St Kilda. Sides eventually tire after having to perform against top notch sides for so many weeks in a row. Also, the week one game you wrote about similarly fails to account for certain factors, such as the fact Geelong had 6 weeks of training on Hawthorn. Secondly, it is logical to expect that if you are playing difficult (top 8) teams, your percentage would be lower. So considering this, it is logical that Hawthorn would have a lower percentage. Following this stage of the season Hawthorn in reality has three games where you question whether they will win, the rest are against sides that will not be there in the pointy end of the season. It is likely that after they play these teams they will begin to rise up in those statistical areas. Additionally, if you want to bring up some stats it would be useful to bring up their wins/losses from other grand final years (because it would be safe to assume if you make the grand final you are 'contending') at this point of the season right? 9-4 in 2012, 12-1 in 2013, 10-3 in 2014 and 9-4 in 2015. They currently sit at 10-3, only bested in 2013. They aren't exactly the statistical anomalies you are trying to portray them as. They notably also have an easier run home than in 2015. Week in week out they are getting the results they need, they sit on the same number of points as all the supposed 'contenders' and they have had the hardest draw of the bunch so far. To write them off now showcases a personal bias against the side.
Saveferris
Guest
The key word here is that they are winning, without contested pill and by blooding youngsters. That in itself is scary, this is what actually concerns you most....its the same midfield that has won the last 3 premierships...contested pill will not be an issue once the whips are cracking come September.
Cat
Roar Guru
It's not 2015 either, your team isn't that good.
Cat
Roar Guru
My side has played 6 of the 7 other sides in the top 8 and beat them all (split games against GWS) so I don't fear anyone. We play the last remaining team in the 8 that we haven't faced directly after our bye, the Swans. The only reason I am not confident of beating them in Geelong is because of the bye itself, I hope it doesn't kill our momentum. I'm confident my sides best can beat every other side in the comp. Will my side play their best when it matters the most? That I don't know, I certainly hope so and believe they can but there is a lot of season to play out yet, let alone what having an off day in finals can mean.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Who would you hate to face in the GF if your team made it. As a Swans supporter I would fear Hawthorn above all others, they are problematic even on their bad days. Happy to face Cats, North or even Crows but not that keen on GWS either. Having said that the Swans can beat anyone and can sometimes loose to anyone, a bit tougher this year than last though.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
So you're a cherry-picker, bandwagon hopper, down-hill skier then? One day it will all come crashing down for you (like Carlton, Richmond and Essendon, who all had success in the '70s or '80s). ⛷
Vindude
Guest
There's no need to be arrogant - I'm a passionate Hawks supporter too. I think all that Cam has pointed out are valid facts which are not baseless to say the least. Like every Hawk supporter, you'd think they have it in them this year as well (although highly unlikely), but if that's not the case - lets not be arrogant and blow our trumpets about the past. Cheers,
anon
Guest
Hawthorn winning convincingly against half decent opposition is the EXCEPTION at the moment. Hawthorn winning unconvincingly is the the RULE at the moment. Let me see. Lost to Geelong and Sydney at the MCG, uncompetitive against GWS. Lucky wins against Adelaide, Bulldogs and to some extent North. The beat the flat track bully Eagles convincingly... Plus Hawthorn are a soft team that can't win the contested ball.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Wow, the old “slag someone off personally because of the team they support” line of attack. Fans are just like their clubs in every aspect of their lives...sure. If that theory had credibility everyone who supported Hawthorn would be a thoroughly modern, upstanding member of society, a shining exemplar of virtues and process for the rest of us to follow. The fact most of them are arrogant, presumptive bell-ends like yourself indicates that it doesn’t.
Cat
Roar Guru
With all that success you'd think you would be secure in your teams accomplishments ... but no you are one of those Hawthorn supporters who needs everyone and everything to suck up to you. Get over yourself. What you did last year, the year before, for the last 50 years has ZERO relevance to what this years team may or may not do. Hale and Lake are gone, Roughhead is sadly unable to play, it is a different team, a different year.