New Super Rugby format makes for jumbled finals rankings

We’re down to the business end of Super Rugby now. Here are three quick points about the state of the competition and Australia’s finals hopes.

The format makes the finals picture muddy
The large pool of teams that qualify for the finals in the 18-team Super Rugby tournament and the group wildcard system means we are two weekends from the finals and ten teams could still make it.

More than that, both the New Zealand and Australian conferences are still up for grabs. Either the Waratahs or Brumbies could win in Australia, while New Zealand still has four possible winners.

The presence of four superb New Zealand teams has muddied things much more than they usually would have. The Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders all have more competition points than any other teams in the competition besides the Lions, and they have the disadvantage of playing against one another.

In other years, where one or two New Zealand teams are able to draw away from the pack, the focus won’t be split between winning conferences and wildcard spots – look at the South African conferences where the winners are pretty much determined.

This year the Brumbies and Waratahs are effectively fighting for one playoff spot, while the New Zealand teams are in a pile up to win theirs, secure better seeding and try to get home finals.

Harking back to the years of a straight semi-final qualification, the final two rounds were often only useful for determining one or two positions, at most. While there are elements of this bloated competition that are plain unfair – travel and easier groups *cough* South African ones *cough* – you can’t say it doesn’t produce intriguing competition ladders.

The most unfair element of this year’s tournament is the fact the Lions might snag home ground advantage right through the finals by virtue of cleaning up in a conference and group that sees their fixture list dominated by matches against new entrants in the Sunwolves and Jaguares, re-entrants the Kings as well as underperforming Sharks and Bulls sides.

Their matches out of the group were against New Zealand opposition and they won just once out of five matches, a slippery 36-32 result against the Chiefs in Round 2. Since then they’ve lost to the Highlanders, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Blues, by a combined score of 170-106. They didn’t hold the opposition below 30 in any of those matches.

The Lions’ last two matches are against the Sunwolves and Jaguares, meanwhile the Chiefs will tangle with the Reds and Highlanders. It might not happen but the Lions are good odds to hold on to the top spot now, and that would be a poor result.

Can we have mid-week June Tests?
It’s exciting to have nine quality rugby games spread across the weekend again. After the Test break having a smorgasbord to choose from is fantastic. But it is very strange having to jump back into what is a heated, muddled and frantic race for the finals after having spent very little time considering Super Rugby for the last month.

Including a weekend off before inbound Test series, we’ve been without Super Rugby for four weeks. That’s far too long to drop out of this complex competition and to pick it up again with so few weeks to go before we’re suddenly in the finals.

I’d like to see the schedule altered so the Super Rugby season continues with the blockbuster Tests being played mid-week as the State of Origin games are in the NRL. That would allow the sense of momentum for Super Rugby to continue but also give the Test matches a prime spot to breathe.

It doesn’t work for Super Rugby to have such a large break in the middle of the home-and-away season. And it wouldn’t be fair to wait until that finishes and have the Tests before the finals start. The best solution is mid-week Test matches.

The Tests could be played on either Wednesday or Thursday nights (adjusted in Australia to avoid a State of Origin clash) and would be huge week-day viewing fixtures. I don’t think the television ratings for Test matches in June would be any lower on a Wednesday night in June than they are on Saturday night. It would become a bit of a tradition in its own right over time as well – the midweek series.

Australian finals hopes
The Brumbies currently hold the top spot in the Australian group and therefore hold the probable sole ticket to a finals appearance. The Waratahs are on the same number of points now but have won one fewer match.

More importantly, the Brumbies are away to the Blues then home to the Force in the final two rounds. The Tahs are home against the Hurricanes and away to the Blues. You’d take the Brumbies schedule there.

But regardless of who makes the finals of the two, we know from their recent matches what each team is planning to do to try and get there and succeed.

The Brumbies will play a steady as she goes match. They know they can be 90 per cent of their best on any given night if they focus on-field position, flooding the breakdown and a strong set piece to win. That relies on the opposition crumbling under pressure as many do during the home-and-away season.

When they meet better teams in the finals that style requires the opposition to have a less than stellar night, if they do the Brumbies will punish them.

The Waratahs have decided to go in a completely different direction now. They’re putting the pedal to the metal as evidenced by their high octane offloads game from their last two weeks.

That means they could make mistakes and play themselves out of matches, but in finals if they will have a game that is suited to breaking down highly organised defensive lines.