The struggling Reds are playing for pride as they host competition favourites the Chiefs. Catch all the Super Rugby action on The Roar from 7:45pm (AEST).
Coming off a vital win against the Crusaders last week, the Chiefs leapfrogged the Christchurch outfit into top spot in the New Zealand conference, with only three losses for the year.
Despite their position at the pointy end of the standings, the Chiefs aren’t home and hosed just yet.
With one of the tightest Kiwi races in years, the top four sides in the conference are all within one game of each other, and one slip can be the difference between top qualifying position and missing out on the finals.
At the opposite end of the spectrum though we have the Reds.
With just three wins to their name this year, the Queenslanders are long gone from the finals equation.
A mixed bag in the last few weeks, including a win over the Sunwolves, a loss to the Brumbies and a bye, means the Reds are possibly in their best form of the season. It’s hard to tell.
Surprisingly, the Reds just edge out the Chiefs in the historical standings, having won ten and lost nine since their first game in 1996, as well as holding a five and four positive record against the Chiefs in Brisbane.
Team news
Reds coaching duo Matt O’Connor and Nick Stiles have made a couple of changes from last week’s side, including a starting debut.
Not exactly a Super Rugby starting debut for former Waratah and Wallaby lock Kane Douglas, but he gets his first run-on start for the Reds after his one game back from a knee injury suffered at last year’s World Cup.
The other movement in the match-day squad is the absence of five-eighth Jake McIntyre. The 22-year-old has succumbed to an ankle injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Brumbies.
Duncan Paia’aua, who came on at halftime last week for the aforementioned McIntyre injury, will slot into the starting XV at flyhalf.
Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has made changes left, right and centre as he prepares his side for the coming weeks.
In the halves, Aaron Cruden slots in at five-eighth after recovering from a neck injury, pairing up with Tawera Kerr-Barlow in at halfback in a direct swap with Brad Weber, who has been shuffled to the bench.
Big return for former Chiefs captain Liam Messam onto the reserves bench, with the 144-game veteran making his comeback after failing to make the Rio Olympics squad for the New Zealand sevens side.
Other big changes include All Blacks workhorse Brodie Retallick being rested. Interesting side note, Retallick has nearly played as many Tests for New Zealand (50) as Super Rugby matches (59).
Co-captain Sam Cane will make a rare move to No.8, as Tom Sanders wears the No.6 jersey, which in turn forces Taleni Seu to pack into the second row.
Lachlan Boshier will make his first Super Rugby run-on start at openside flanker, benefitting from the Cane switch.
The front row isn’t safe either, with prop Hiroshi Yamashita being dropped and hooker Hika Elliot demoted to the bench, being replaced by Atu Moli and Nathan Harris respectively.
Prediction
Chiefs. The Chiefs will win.
It’s hard to get behind the Reds, and the Chiefs are probably the worst team they could have come up against at this point, with confidence low.
In contrast, the New Zealanders who can cement their standing at the top of the crowded table with a big win.
Chiefs to win by 38.
Scrumma
Guest
Enjoyed lad.
Whakaata
Guest
I think it puts into perspective the quality of the NZ conference, their teams are on another level. In saying that the NZ teams have had slip ups along the way. To date the Stormers have only played 2 teams in the top four and 3 in the top 8, Lions (1) Brumbies(4) and the Sharks (8) who are on less points than the Waratahs (39+) and equal with the Blues(35), the weakest team in the NZ conference. the Stormers have played 8 games against bottom 8 teams winning 6 drawing 1 and losing 1. They also have the ignomy of losing to the Waratahs who sit in 9th.
Akari
Roar Rookie
I thought Duncan Paia'aua had a good game given the difficult circumstances he was playing under. It took Ihaia West 2 years of full time super rugby as a 10 for the Blues to get to where he is today; yet he is still a work-in-progress IMO given that he still requires a little help from Piers Francis.
DFenda
Guest
I heard Todd Blackadder might be interested... time for an for an oversees coach?
dcnz
Guest
Bring back: Quade Cooper.
Celtic334
Guest
I fear for my rebels as well. I'm actually hoping the tahs win, we need it but maybe the best thing in aust interest would be a savage beating across all 5 games. Normally I'm very positive about Australian rugby but after last night I lost some of that positivity.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
He said a player has been poor all year and should be discarded because of that - he has played 2 games on the end of a woeful backline and made a number of excellent defensive reads last week. I get you're just a flog but you realise I'm talking about Chris right?
Ruckin Oaf
Guest
Maybe they should look for a new defence coach as well
Train Without A Terminus
Guest
Well the article just above predicted a win to the Chiefs by 38 so a win by 45 points isn't that far away...
Colm
Roar Guru
Good blog Connor, but I'm not sure penalties attempted is proportional to the quality of hemispheres. Glasgow 70-10 Zebre = 12 tries, no penalties.
MH01
Guest
Based on the results so far, there should be no reds or Brumbies. By tomorrow maybe no Tahs either ;)
RobC
Roar Guru
Well, it looked like the Reds had no will to do anything useful in the contact area. It seems that some decision has been made about the coaching and Pplayers have given up, and looks like no one wants to risk injury for the final two matches.
Cynical Play
Roar Rookie
you're a joke. TWAS. that was yellow all the way..whats Phipps got to do with it, unless your obsessed with hating Phipps..
Cynical Play
Roar Rookie
what a loser comment
Cynical Play
Roar Rookie
your kidding .,,,how many straws do you wanna clutch
Cynical Play
Roar Rookie
Reds ... no resistance. Nothing to take away. FFS.
wardad
Guest
Aussies used to be very cunning players,with game plans so sharp you could cut yourself just looking too hard ! Not so much now though .
Lara
Guest
Make that two
Lara
Guest
Penalty
WEST
Roar Guru
Oh yeah, did that Tongan Thor play. Didn't notice the secret weapon.