With the top eight basically set, it’s now a race to the four rather. So I’m going to go back to my prediction-based roots and have a crack at picking the AFL finals results for this season.
Friday Night Qualifying Final One: Sydney (2) versus Geelong (3) @ SCG
Saturday Elimination Final One: GWS Giants (6) versus West Coast (7) @ Spotless Stadium
Saturday Night Qualifying Final Two: Hawthorn (1) versus Adelaide (4) @ MCG
Sunday Elimination Final Two: Western Bulldogs (5) versus North Melbourne (8) @ MCG
West Coast playing on Sunday away isn’t ideal, so they get the Saturday timeslot. This also pushes the Sydney game to Friday to avoid having the two Sydney games on the same day. GWS versus West Coast wouldn’t justify using the SCG or ANZ, so the Giants can host their first home final at their actual home ground. Hawthorn at home at the ‘G to the Crows on Saturday night should be a blockbuster and the Sunday game between the Dogs and Roos a high scoring excitement machine of a match.
Friday Night Semi-Final Two: Geelong versus West Coast @ Simmonds Stadium
Saturday Night Semi-Final One: Adelaide versus Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Oval is an amazing venue to watch football and is deserving of the Saturday Night marquee timeslot. That and the Bulldogs having played on the previous Sunday would be disadvantaged by only having a five-day turnaround. Geelong would be pushing to have the game at Simons with West Coast being an interstate team, and will use their home ground advantage to get over the line.
Friday Night Preliminary Final Two: Hawthorn versus West Coast @ MCG
Saturday Night Preliminary Final One: Sydney versus Adelaide @ SCG
Big call saying Geelong will go out in straight sets, especially with a home semi-final. But it might happen, and West Coast are a team capable of pulling off an upset. I’ll tip Adelaide to get past the Bulldogs at home and walk straight into the SCG.
I’m predicting the Hawthorn game to be a blowout, with West Coast’s third away trip finally running them out of steam. Sydney will get an almighty scare from the Crows, with Lance Franklin kicking the winning goal with less than one minute on the clock.
Saturday Grand Final: Hawthorn versus Sydney @ MCG
Sydney will get up. No real analysis, just a gut feel. I can’t see Hawthorn not being in the grand final, but I can see them losing it. It’s not quite a ‘handing of the torch’ moment to say Sydney will run with it, but a final curtain call for a champion team that has dominated the league for past few seasons.
So what do you think Roarers? Post your thoughts in the comments section below. What teams do you think will contest the grand final this season?
mattyb
Guest
That's a very good point there Don. I would actually expect Hunter to be leading the B & F myself as he has played well right throughout the season and Bontempelli was slow to get going because of surgery during the off season. I think Morris could be up there to as clubs vote differently to umpires. I think Bontempelli would our leading Brownlow vote gatherer though. Jack Martin seems ok but I'd say Bontempelli is a bit better. GC though have some excellent players of which Martin is one. If they can sort their injuries out they could rise into contention very quickly.
Don Freo
Guest
Interesting, Matty, but some expect Lachie Hunter to beat Bont in the B&F. I reckon the star in future years might be Jack Martin. With a few better players returning to support him at GC, he is starting to shine.
Buzzard
Guest
Finals aren't played in July Justinr .. You just have to get there, and if the Hawks finish top 2 even top 4 .. LOOK OUT
Penster
Guest
Bless you Don, you're the kiss of death for 17 teams in the comp.
andyl12
Guest
2013 was more of a relief than a celebration whereas 2014 and 2015 just confirmed our mental superiority over all of our rivals. You're right that 2014 was probably the sweeter of those two given that Buddy's COLA-induced departure, the back-to-back hoodoo that had existed for a decade, our injury toll, our sick coach and Sydney's supposedly-superior 'Bloods Culture' were all meant to work against us. Watching the game from New Orleans while on honeymoon topped it off for me. 2008 and its merits are already being debated elsewhere, but its status as the greatest effort by a Grand Final underdog in AFL history cannot be disputed.
Dad of footy-playing kids
Guest
Your 'blah blah' comment on 12/07/2016 at 15:56 hrs, was after my comment. You can not claim that as a prediction.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
Michael RVC, can I ask who you go for? And can I ask whether you are aware of any other Grand Final featuring a tactic from the winning side that was later outlawed?
Penster
Guest
2008 is the one I'm most "proud" of, well ahead of their own expectations. 2014 is the one I'm most fond of, very healing following the Buddy defection, Hawks destroyed Sydney's mindset ruthlessly, the Hodge intercept goal, Hannerbury tackles and Langford boundary dribble goal summing up the day for me. Getting misty eyed just thinking about it ................
michael RVC
Roar Pro
I think 2014 was the one with the luck. Another few mins of play might have been telling. 2015, not lucky, just did the job that the occasion called for whereas the opposition didn't respond. Poor.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
I was right on the blah blah then. Wow, what a prediction!
michael RVC
Roar Pro
I didn't present a complaint FH. I make the observation that a cynical tactic immediately thereafter outlawed by the administrators is not a moment of pride. I also said that the win would have been pleasing nonetheless. What I would say to you is that the carping from Victoria would still be going if it had been done by an interstate side or from Hawks supporters if it had been done to them.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Michael, if i was to write a time line on the Hawks in this period, this would be my summation: 08- merited, but the Cats withered in the face of expectation whereas we benefited by have no pressure that comes with expectation on us. We were worthy but a bit like a gambler playing big stakes in the casino with the banks money. 09-11- We struggled with the one dimensional aspect of our game plan with Clarko unrelenting to change. Plus after 08, we lost some key me, Crawf, Croad/Gilham and Robbie Campbell falling to injury. The 2010 elimination final where Freo commandeered by Hill/Morabito killing us on the outside completed us. It led to the recruiting of jets in Hill/Smith 2012- In the aftermath of 08, we were burdened with expectation, and though the Swans were the better team on the day, we were mentally weak in the key moments of this game. 2013- Getting Brett Ratten was pivotal, with him adding many dimensions to our one tracked midfield as well as adding strings to the bows of the likes of Mitchell. 13 prelim Final- fork in the road game- if we lost we would have been labelled the chokers of this era but after we won it was the missing link needed in regards to dispelling the lingering mental demons 14-we were at our top 15- we were merited but a tad lucky with us facing teams we owned in Crows/Freo after being pantsed by WCE. In the GF, WCE play their worst game all season and we play well. 16- If Roughy was fit and able I would see us as hot favs but his loss evens it a bit. In the finals, leadership and knowhow means the most and we have it in spades. Meaning if we get top two we have it in us to play 3 high class games Stay tuned :)
Don Freo
Guest
That has been the case every season, FH.
Football Head
Roar Rookie
I can't help but think that this year it's not going to be necessarily the strongest teams that will play in the grand final, but the teams who take on those with the least momentum/ most injuries/ etc. during their finals campaign. Just about every one of the top eight teams this year have put forward a case to play in the grand final, but none have stood head and shoulders above the rest. So small things like an injury or two, an extra days break between games, having to travel, or even who they played previously will be deciding factors regarding who makes it to the big dance.
Football Head
Roar Rookie
North wouldn't want to play anyone else who makes finals the way they're travelling at the moment
Football Head
Roar Rookie
What? A team used a tactic to stop the other team scoring? What sort of crazy new age idea is that? Blasphemous I say! How dare one team try to stop the other from scoring while then having the audacity to go and kick a winning score themselves! In all seriousness though, what a silly complaint to have about a team
Kevin lee
Guest
Won't be long before hawks are definitely in the Finals. Won't be too long before Freo mathematically cannot make the Finals. Cakewalk to Flag...in your dreams.
Kevin lee
Guest
Deliberate behinds was not illegal then. Just like shepherding the man on the mark is not illegal now. Got to hand it to Clarkson. He thinks of many small details to stay ahead.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Obviously because of the deliberate tactic used to blunt the superior team's attacking play. After that the AFL made a rule to prevent it happening again; pretty profound many would think. I can just hear the mental machinery now.............."but Hawthorn used the existing rules blah blah".
Buzzard
Guest
2013 was my favourite flag. It was just too easy...