South African rugby has been in decline since the glory year of 2009, having not won any Super Rugby, Tri Nations/Rugby Championship or World Cups during that time.
Since 2009, the Springboks have only beaten the All Blacks twice – in Port Elizabeth in 2011 and at Ellis Park in 2014 – and have been subjected to humiliating defeats by Ireland, Wales, Argentina and Japan since.
This leads to the inevitable conclusion that South Africa is losing its once proud standing as one of the most respectable rugby nations in the world.
So far during this week various Australian Roarers have taken the liberty of highlighting the shortcomings of Australian rugby. This has been brought by the incompetence of the Wallabies’ efforts against England in June, losing 3 – 0 at home, and further adding insult to injury was the dire efforts of the Australian Conference in last week’s round of Super Rugby.
Combining these two gives you the notion that Australian rugby is stuck, or going backwards.
While I do have certain ideas as to why the men of the gold country are struggling the way they currently are, the truth is that my knowledge and information of Australian rugby is poor at best, so I will instead follow the discussions of Australian supporters to paint my own picture.
Because of that, I am going to talk about something I do know: South Africa.
Make no mistake; we South Africans have no right to proclaim ourselves to be in a better position than Australia at any level, let alone Super Rugby.
As it stands, the Lions are our only chance of winning that elusive Super Rugby title, but even their hopes are slim at best. While the Lions have shown themselves to be vastly superior to other South African sides, they are far from being on par with the best that New Zealand have to offer.
Yes, they had beaten the Chiefs early in the competition and yes, they had made short work of the Blues during the latter stages, but they were properly beaten by the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders – two of which were played at home.
Now Lions coach Johan Ackermann has opted to rest his entire first choice team when they face the underperforming Jaguares in Argentina. The overlying thought to this is that he wants his team to be fresh come the quarter-finals, but his methods come close to madness.
Jake White had made a very similar decision in 2014 when he was coach of the Sharks when he opted to rest a number of key players for matches against lower sides like the Cheetahs. This didn’t turn out exactly how he had intended and the Sharks lost against the Cheetahs at home and surrendered any chance they might have had of ending the round stages top of the log. They went on to lose against the Crusaders in the semi-final.
Current Springbok coach, Allister Coetzee, made a similar choice in 2015 when he opted to rest his entire first choice team against the Sharks in the last round. A victory would have given him the second spot on the overall log and would have saved South Africa from the complaints that the Crusaders should have advanced in their place, as they would legitimately have had more points than the Canterbury boys.
Now Ackermann is willing to sacrifice home ground advantage should they reach the final. If history has proven anything, it is that it is nigh on impossible to beat a New Zealand team, in New Zealand, in a playoff.
Much has been said about transformation and the current format of Super Rugby, and while both of these do contribute in certain ways, the true enemy lies north of the equator. South African players have been leaving the country in droves in the past few years and this, logically, dilutes the depth of the country.
The fight against European clubs is a fight that South Africa is losing, and they are feeling the consequences of this now.
It is no stretch by any means to suggest that had South Africa retained all their players, they would have easily been able to field six competitive teams. This is not to say that we would have dominated Super Rugby given New Zealand’s seemingly endless pool of quality talent themselves, but it does suggest that they would not have found their hold on Super Rugby so easily.
For instance, if South Africa could have retained all the talent that they had lost to European and Japanese clubs, the Kings could theoretically have fielded this team:
1. Steven Kitshoff, 2. Bismarck du Plessis, 3. Jannie du Plessis, 4. Paul Willemse, 5. Jacques du Plessis, 6. Heinrich Brussow, 7. CJ Stander, 8. Pierre Spies, 9. Rory Kockott, 10. Johan Goosen, 11. Bryan Habana, 12. Francois Steyn, 13. JJ Engelbrecht, 14. Gio Aplon, 15. Scott Spedding.
This team contains no less than thirteen test players and two Junior Springboks, but the positives would not have ended there. Here are theoretical teams of current players combined with those that the South African Super Rugby teams have lost. The players that had once played many years for certain teams have been reinstated into their old teams while others were given over to the Kings.
Each team will have two sets of starting XV teams to illustrate the depth they would have had.
Bulls:
1. Trevor Nyakane, 2. Adriaan Strauss, 3. Marcell van der Merwe, 4. Paul Willemse, 5. Jacques du Plessis, 6. CJ Stander, 7. Arno Botha, 8. Pierre Spies, 9. Rudy Paige, 10. Handre Pollard, 11. Jamba Ulengo, 12. Jan Serfontein, 13. JJ Engelbrecht, 14. Bryan Habana, 15. Jesse Kriel.
1. Paul Schoeman, 2. Bandise Maku, 3. Werner Kruger, 4. RG Snyman, 5. Jason Jenkins, 6. Deon Steggman, 7. Lappies Labuschagne, 8. Hanro Liebenberg, 9. Piet van Zyl, 10. Morne Steyn, 11. Travis Ismaiel, 12. Burger Odendaal, 13. Daniel Kriel, 14. Luther Obi, 15. Zane Kirchner.
Notable omissions: Dean Greyling (Prop), Lizo Gqoboka (Prop), Callie Visagie (Hooker), Grant Hattingh (Lock), Nico Janse van Rensburg (Lock), Renaldo Bothma (Loosie), Nick de Jager (Loosie), Tian Schoeman (Fly-half), Francois Brummer (Fly-half), Dries Swanepoel (Centre), Wynand Olivier (Centre), SP Marais (Fullback), Warrick Gelant (Fullback)
As you can see, the Bulls would be healthy beyond belief in the forwards while having Morne Steyn, Francois Brummer and Tian Schoeman to provide backup for Pollard at fly-half would be depth incarnate. In the centres they could pick between Serfontein, Engelbrecht, Kriel, Swanepoel and Odendaal.
The total of test players between these comes to 12 in the starting team with a further eight in the rest.
Sharks:
1. Tendai Mtawarira, 2. Bismarck du Plessis, 3. Jannie du Plessis, 4. Jacques Potgieter, 5. Stephan Lewies, 6. Marcell Coetzee, 7. Willem Alberts, 8. Ryan Kankowski, 9. Cobus Reinach, 10. Patrick Lambie, 11. Lwazi Mvovo, 12. Francois Steyn, 13. Paul Jordaan, 14. JP Pietersen, 15. Willie le Roux.
1. Coenie Oosthuizen, 2. Craig Burden, 3. Louwrens Adriaanse, 4. Ruan Botha, 5. Ettienne Oosthuisen, 6. Jean-Luc du Preez, 7. Phillip van der Walt, 8. Daniel du Preez, 9. Ruan Pienaar, 10. Garth April, 11. Odwa Ndungane, 12. Andre Esterhuizen, 13. Sbura Sithole, 14. Wandile Mjekevu, 15. Louis Ludik
Notable Omissions: Dale Chadwick (Prop), Thomas du Toit, (Prop), Kyle Cooper (Hooker), Chiliboy Ralepelle (Hooker), Franco Marais (Hooker), Giant Mtyanda (Lock), Keegan Daniel (Loosie), Jean Deysel (Loosie), Michael Claasens (Scrum-half), Curwin Bosch (Fullback), Rhyno Smith (Fullback)
Again the forward pack is well taken care of. Mtawarira and the du Plessis brothers are test players as is Oosthuisen and Ralepelle. Their loose-forward stock would be more than prodigious with Coetzee, Alberts, Kankowski, Deysel, Bothma (all test players) along with the du Preez twins. Cobus Reinach and Ruan Pienaar are both Springboks and their centres with Steyn, Esterhuizen, Jordaan and Sithole could put up any competitive combinations
The total Test players come up at a full house of fifteen Test players in the starting line-up with a further five in the rest.
Cheetahs:
1. Maks van Dyk, 2. Ashley Johnson, 3. Ox Nche, 4. Lood de Jager, 5. Francois Uys, 6. Heinrich Brussow, 7. Oupa Mahoje, 8. Willie Britz, 9. Sarel Pretorius, 10. Johan Goosen, 11. Sergeal Pietersen, 12. Francois Venter, 13. Robert Ebersohn, 14. Raymond Rhule, 15. Clayton Blommetjies
1. Danie Mienie, 2. Richardt Strauss, 3. Charles Marais, 4. Carl Wegner, 5. Boela Serfontein, 6. Uzair Cassiem, 7. Tienie Burger, 8. Boom Prinsloo, 9. Shaun Venter, 10. Fred Zeilinga, 11. Cornall Hendricks, 12. William Small-Smith, 13. Rayno Benjamin, 14. Maphuta Dolo, 15. Coenie van Wyk
Notable Omissions: BG Uys (Prop), Luan de Bruyn (Prop), Torsten van Jaarsveld (Hooker), Reniel Hugo (Lock), Henco Venter (Loosie), Paul Schoeman (Loosie), Tian Meyer (Scrum-half), Neil Marais (Fly-Half), Sias Ebersohn (Fly-Half), Michael van der Spuy (Centre).
The Cheetahs would receive a considerable boost at hooker with Ashley Johnson and Ireland international Richardt Strauss joining Namibia international Torsten van Jaarsveld. Heinrich Brussow, Sarel Pretorius, Johan Goosen and Robert Ebersohn all returning would give them the backbone of that 2013 Cheetahs team that defied the odds.
The total of Test players comes up at five in the starting line-up and a further three in the rest.
Stormers:
1. Steven Kitshoff, 2. Deon Fourie, 3. Frans Malherbe, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 5. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Francois Louw, 7. Siya Kolisi, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 9. Jano Vermaak, 10. Jean-Luc du Plessis, 11. Gio Aplon, 12. Damian de Allende, 13. Juan de Jongh, 14. Gerhard van den Heever, 15. Cheslin Kolbe
1. Oli Kebble, 2. Scarra Ntubeni, 3. Vincent Koch, 4. Jean Kleyn, 5. Andries Bekker, 6. Rynhardt Elstadt, 7. Sikumbhuzo Notshe, 8. Nick Koster, 9. Nic Groom, 10. Robert du Preez, 11. Leolin Zas, 12. Danie Poolman, 13. Jaque Fourie, 14. Kobus van Wyk, 15.Jaco Taute.
Notable Omissions: Brok Harris (Prop), Bongi Mbonambi (Hooker), JD Shickerling (Lock), Nizaam Carr (Loosie), Nic Groom (Scrum-Half), Brandon Thompson (Fly-Half), Kurt Coleman (Fly-Half), Peter Grant (Fly-Half), Huw Jones (Centre), Pat Howard (Centre), Joe Pietersen (Fullback)
There are eleven Test players in the starting line-up while there are a further seven Test players make up the rest.
Lions:
1. Corne Fourie, 2. Malcolm Marx, 3. Julian Redelinghuys, 4. Andries Ferreira, 5. Franco Mostert, 6. Warrick Tecklenburg, 7. Jaco Kriel, 8. Warren Whiteley, 9. Faf de Klerk, 10. Elton Jantjies, 11. Courtnall Skosan, 12. Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 13. Lionel Mapoe, 14. Ruan Combrinck, 15. Andries Coetzee
1. Dylan Smith, 2. Akker van der Merwe, 3. Jacques van Rooyen, 4. MB Lusaseni, 5. Lourens Erasmus, 6. Derrick Minnie, 7. Ruaan Lerm, 8. Ruan Ackermann, 9. Ross Cronje, 10. Marnitz Boshoff, 11. Anthony Volminck, 12. Harold Vorster, 13. Howard Mnisi, 14. Sampie Mastriet, 15. Jaco van der Walt
Notable Omissions: Ruan Dreyer (Prop), Robbie Coetzee (Hooker), Martin Muller (Lock), Michael Bondesio (Scrum-Half), Stokkies Hanekon (Centre), JW Bell.
Not much change for the Lions only because they have not lost many players because two years ago, no one noticed them. The Lions have a stack of talent, intelligently moulded to greatness by their coach.
There are eight Test players in the starting line-up and a further naught everywhere else, but that should change soon.
The Kings:
1. Jacobie Adriaanse, 2. Schalk Brits, 3. Petrus du Plessis, 4. Steven Sykes, 5. Allistair Hargreaves, 6. Bernard le Roux, 7. Michael Rhodes, 8. Josh Strauss, 9. Rory Kockott, 10. Elgar Watts, 11. Siyanda Grey, 12. Brad Barritt, 13. Jeremy Ward, 14. Malcolm Jaer, 15. Scott Spedding
1. Sti Sithole, 2. Edgar Marutlulle, 3. Schalk Ferreira, 4. JC Astle, 5. Schalk Oelofse, 6. Chris Cloete, 7. Thembolani Bholi, 8. Jacques Engelbrecht, 9. James Hall, 10. Elgar Watts, 11. Luzunko Vulindlu, 12. Stefan Watermeyer, 13. JP du Plessis, 14. Charles Radebe, 15. Jurgen Visser.
The Kings would be bolstered by several excellent players from Saracens and a few on the side playing for France. Schalk Brits, Petrus du Plessis, Allistair Hargreaves, Michael Rhodes and Brad Barritt would bring in the Saracens reinforcements and Bernard le Roux, Rory Kockott and Scott Spedding are all France internationals.
Obviously there are hundreds more that could have been included in the South African Super Rugby franchises, but this isn’t intended to be an argument over who could be best and where. Instead, what this highlights is that South Africa have the depth in talent to field strong Super Rugby teams, but the inability to hold these players in South Africa will continue to hurt us.
There are already twenty eight South African players confirmed to head to Europe by the end of the year. 28! By this rate, South Africa would do well to be able to compete with one team in the next few years.
hopalong
Guest
Hi Armand,Craven week completed,Watched a few matches as tournament played just up the road from me. Some wonderful talent on display,particularly from finalists,WP & Tvl.. Agents for UK & French clubs were active,according to reports Ramifications are obvious We.will soon see youngsters just out of school joining their elder SA rugby expats. 3 years in a UK academy and they qualify to play for England. Will not expound on reasons apart from saying that the lure of the Euro and its buying power must be overwhelming. Prefer to remain a devout coward.
Rebellion
Guest
Very sad to think the Boks are stuck with Alastair Coetzee after waiting years to finally put a dangerous 10, 12 & 13 combination on the field. No disrespect to Jean DeVilliers who was a great player for many years and seems like a great bloke however I prefer the running threat of DeAllende and rate Kriel highly. I still don't know how the Stormers didn't win the comp in 2010 and can only point the finger at Coetzee's failure to use his backs for anything other than defence and 'up and unders'
RB
Guest
I disagree somewhat with your assessment there Colin. I dont mean to say that SA doesnt have a problem, merely that it isn't just their problem. Yes SA players are following the financial benefits of Europe far earlier, (understandably given the attrition rate now of professional rugby) but this is true for players in all SANZAR countries, who are all losing young talent to Europe. (and if we are on that topic what about the Pacific Islands who have their talent lured by both SANZAR and Europe) Yes even NZ, Rene Ranger as an example of even test players being lured away. On that note I would say though that it is fairly evident that becoming a black these days is a process and doing an apprenticeship is a requirement, even for high achieving performers in super rugby are biding time in the squad waiting for the incumbent to move on, and there are a lot of younger players now that look at a relatively short career and finance and whether an uncertain apprenticeship is worth it and choose Europe.
dru
Roar Rookie
Armand This is what I find really concerning. I actually suspect that Regional Unions in RSA have the depth and strength to contunue the conveyor belt of talent to ensure Springbok strength, even with the armada leaving. Sure often those Unions needs better organisation (not always) and Transformation is vexed. But if transformation works, the rugby numbers can only get larger. But it's all for nothing if the School talent is picked up in the leavers.
Derm
Roar Guru
Well, Bilt, change is coming down the tracks on the global schedule - something is going to happen with current structures is my view. The advent of a new PRO 12 comp with conferences would be timed nicely for those changes to happen. The current 4 unions from Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Italy are never going to compete with England and France for TV monies under the current format and schedule. Marin Anayi, the new CEO of PRO12 has been in discussion with PRO12 chiefs in the last 8-10 months discussing changes and where the PRO 12 can go. They recognise that they have to be smarter and different in order to compete. So the PRO 12 could move from being an inter-national comp to being an inter-continental comp in time. SA Rugby would have to decide whether players in NH-based franchises would qualify for test selection. Or perhaps only for NH/November tests as someone suggested above. I think there's an opportunity for SA to become a game changer in how it operates within World Rugby. It has the numbers, the talent pool, and skill base to be a real rugby superpower with its traditional alignment with SANZAAR, and its time zone alignment/NH exodus to NH. Become part of, and benefit from European riches, rather than been seen as losing talent and money to it. Rather than fight it, be innovative and do something new with the current situation because change is going to happen anyway
That sounds interesting Pot, not sure how it will eorkin practice though? You have two different seasons.
Derm
Roar Guru
I don't agree with that. The systems set up in Irelamd, Wales, Scotland and Italy are designed to prepare players for test rugby with quite strict player management programmes in some of them. And they have plans to reduce the number of league games in the future to further this aim.
Derm
Roar Guru
Nice article Armand. Couple of thoughts. If none of those players had moved as you theorise, the question could be asked where would they have come from instead and what impact would that have had? Secondly, it strikes that South Africa has such a pool of talent that it could take a more pragmatic and maybe somewhat heretical approach to using that talent. Rather than put all its eggs in one basket in the Southern Hemisphere, why not have a real presence in both? One of likely effects of the transformation programme is to drive further SA players overseas. Why not establish two or more SA franchises to take part in NH competitions? Does SA need to have 6 teams in the Super Rugby comp? The PRO 12 league plans to move to a conference structure in 2018. Initially, it will split into two with existing teams but then it is rumoured there are plans to expand to bring in teams from North America and South Africa. This might create a further opportunity for South Africa to export its talent in a way that benefits SA Rugby and the talent pool that it has.
Dubaikiwi
Guest
Rugby is not like football, you need combinations to work in Rugby, you only get that by working closely together. Fitness is another key, the club scene in N.H. Is not interested in preparing your player for test rugby, but needs them conditioned to last the season, this has meant a lowering of aerobic fitness and match fitness when any player has tried to return to NZ and i suspect the same for SA players as well.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Yes and no, RB. Any New Zealand player with any hopes of making the All Blacks will stay in New Zealand until all hope is gone, or they go after their international career is done. It's a good system. The issue is that South African players are heading to the North at a very young age. I'm not sure of the Australian situation, but I would think their pool of rugby players is much smaller than South Africa and NZ? And if that's true (fewer players to choose from) I think its remarkable that Australia still competes in the top 3 as it does. Imagine all those league players switching to union.
JT
Guest
Steyn got shafted by saru not the Sharks
taylorman
Roar Guru
Very true ?
Faith
Guest
Wow. Super insane from the French. Thanks for the education, Armand ...
Barbarian Bok team. They will probably play like the barbarians as well, no synergy, no time spent on preparation.
Harry Jones
Expert
I've always wondered why we don't exploit the exodus in our favour. When playing in the NH, field a majority NH-based Bok squad.
Mckenzie
Guest
There are a couple of very important factors you have not taken into account which renders a lot of your fears unfounded. It is true that all countries (England included) are suffering from having players not playing international rugby due to club commitments. Have you thought that for every player included from overseas, local talent is missing out on playing in their home competitions. For every South African commanding a position, a local is being excluded. This impacts on the home unions, as young talent is not being given an opportunity. As for depth, South Africa has enormous numbers to draw from and the wider the base of the pyramid, the higher the peak. The problems for the Springboks are well chronicled but with the talent pool compared to others, the men in green and gold should be dominating. Poor coaching, tactical awareness, low skill levels and politics bring about the downfall of the once mighty Saffas. The second important factor to consider is that Australia and New Zealand, with relatively small playing numbers, have to compete against the invasion of rugby league poachers. This has been an enormous problem going back to the amateur days yet the All Blacks and Wallabies have performed at or about their historical rankings. When Carl Hayman, the giant loosehead prop, went overseas the officials in New Zealand moved heaven and earth to get him back but he never returned (probably weighed down by the money in his wallet), He was the one player they wanted to retain yet with his departure he was barely missed. We all long for the days when South Africa becomes a dominant force again but the problems you outline are not unique to you alone. All countries bear the consequences, especially France which is very poor at international level and this is blamed on local players missing out to foreigners. Some of the comments and articles written reflect emotions without the deep thinking required to find balance. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but as with most things in life, there are mostly always two sides to every story. It is time for the gloom and doom merchants to life their eyes upwards.
Yes Colin, I don't disagree about any of your points. We know the deck is stacked and that is why I have been harping on about SARU leaving Super Rugby. For the foreseeable future whilst SA rugby is going through this process of transformation the best is to keep it all inhouse. At least then our teams compete on the same basis with other SA teams. Let Australian and New Zealand rugby go forth and search for their pot of gold, right now oue priorities should be shifting internally to sort out shortcomings, be it structure, talent pool, coaches or whatever.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
No this is not what the Kiwis are doing. Name a single player in the NZ franchises who's been promised NZ citizenship or big money to switch allegiance from any other country. There are none.
PeterK
Roar Guru
aust could only pay the better players enough if they got aru top ups, super rugby pay does not compete with euro clubs. ARU cannot afford top ups for 3 years waiting for eligibility. Any top SA who have not played for the boks players who meet parent / grandparent eligibility would be looked at I am sure. How many of those are there though?
richard
Guest
But it is a by-product,isn't it.The clubs maybe in it for themselves,but with the current eligibility laws,it enables the unions to exploit it.