Super Rugby tipping Round 17: The final countdown

We’re leaving the Super Rugby season together, but still it’s farewell. And maybe this week we’ll come back to earth, who can tell?

As far as tipping goes, I guess there is no one to blame. We’re leaving ground; leaving ground. Will things ever be the same again?

Yes, it’s Round 17. It’s the final countdown…

» Check out the complete 2017 Super Rugby draw right here

Digger and The Crowd (dammit) jagged perfect rounds last week, and Digger has been tasked with the challenge of taking the competition out for the sake of individual human tipsters – and he’s starting off from the long run!

Harry’s thrown up this week’s curly Big Question.

Last week: Digger and The Crowd 9, Harry 8, Paddy 7 and Brett… well, you know.

Diggercane: “A couple of things before I start.

“Paddy, it turns out that that ‘two Australian in the finals’ possibility was non-existent, and Mr Jones, as much as I enjoyed your Nick Frisby analogy last week, it turns out he found touch on this occasion. Perhaps you knocked on attempting to run the ball back! I have also been charged with catching the crowd this weekend from our leader, the Greig Laidlaw-lookalike, otherwise I run the risk of relegation from the ranks. Honestly Brett, I can’t be held accountable if the crowd keeps copying me.

“Anyhow, back to the business at hand. I am going to back the Blues again this week. My biggest question of them is have they finally found some consistency in their performance? It has been a long time since they have managed to put three quality performances to together in a row but I think this side will, particularly at Eden Park and being the last round. I doubt very much that it will be a walkover like last week, but the Blues do have the muscle to counter the Waratahs’ biggest threats and more potent threats out wide.

“I simply can’t make up my mind regarding the Reds and the Rebels but in the end I am tipping the Rebels. I saw more on attack from them against the Crusaders despite the lopsided result and feel they can score more than the Reds. Pride is also a funny thing and I imagine the Rebels will be wanting to hit the ground running, and bury the memory of their visit to Christchurch in Brisbane.

“The Sharks should dismantle the Sunwolves in Durban, and so too the Stormers should sweep away the Kings with ease. I am backing the Bulls over the Cheetahs due to the Cheetahs’ historically poor record against the Pretorians, but also as the Bulls have potentially more to play for. Though that will require the Sunwolves to pull off a major miracle.

“The Brumbies should beat the Force and with a bonus point. They have too; they are in Canberra and there are no excuses for a squad of this strength if they do not. The Lions’ decision to leave 15 players at home has me tipping the Jaguares to finish their season on a high. I have to say, while I am sure the theory is sound, it is a strange decision to not chase and confirm top spot overall and guarantee home ground advantage through all potential stages of the playoffs by the Lions.

“Finally, two massive derbies at home for us Kiwis to ponder. I make no apologies for my tips here, they are completely motivated by self-interest. The ‘Canes need to win with a bonus point and also require the Highlanders to beat the Chiefs for the Canes to achieve top spot in the conference. So I am all about the ‘H’s this week over the ‘C’s. No, I have applied no other logic to it at all, and I realise that it is bloody unlikely but still, GO THE MIGHTY CLANCANES!”

Tips: Blues, Rebels, Sharks, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, Jaguares.

Harry Jones: “Digger reminds me of so many players. A hairier Stephen Moore, or a nicer Dylan Hartley, or a more house-trained Bismarck du Plessis, or an urban Andrew Hore. I’m going to hook those two points back this week, win a tighthead, take a scrum against the head. Here goes:

“The Blues will stumble at home, while the Reds will quell the Rebels. (I still stick with my picks for coaches). There, that’s my two points back.

“The Sharks, Bulls, and Stormers will coast to wins over tired opponents. Hoping to see Pat Lambie on the bench, after he was hipstered. The Brumbies will maul to a win.

“But here’s where I will pick up the comeback win: Lions sans Boks bite the Jags. Lions are bigger, faster, and stronger than other cats.

“Oh, and Chiefs and Crusaders over the H-teams. Sorry, Diggeroo. Dramatic win for me!”

Tips: Waratahs, Reds, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, Lions.

Paddy Effeney: “The Waratahs will avenge the Brumbies, as they should be stinging after last week. The Reds and Rebels are equally unlikely to win, so perhaps I should have gone the draw? Honestly I think that will be a good game though, and I’ll be watching. The Sharks and Crusaders will win, one by plenty and one in a close one.

“I’m going the Highlanders, mostly on the home theory, but that’s clearly the game of the round. Brumbies, Stormers and Bulls should all be too good, as should the Lions.

“Imagine saying at the start of the season the Lions would be too good for the Jaguares on paper? The mind boggles…”

Tips: Waratahs, Reds, Sharks, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, Lions.

Brett McKay: When in doubt, go back to what I guesstimated six weeks ago. And let’s face it, doing that can’t be any worse than actually putting some thought into this.

So I’ll use those picks as a base and talk myself out of a few tips and probably pay the price.

Six weeks ago I had the Waratahs and Rebels winning the Friday night game, but I don’t know about the Rebels any more. Yes, they’ll be reeling from the Christchurch Massacre, but the Reds just looked to do more against the Brumbies last week, and really weren’t as bad the scoreboard suggested. Plus, the Queenslanders are farewelling a host of departing players in their final game at home.

The Sharks should do the Kings easily, but gee I’d laugh if there was an upset. See my Big Q response for the reasons why. I had the Crusaders, Highlanders, and Brumbies six weeks ago winning at home and see no reason for changing that – even with the relative performances last week.

Stormers and Bulls is easy enough. I think. I couldn’t rule out a Cheetahs upset but I’m not confident enough to tip it.

And Johann Ackerman might just be the biggest gambler in Super Rugby. Six weeks ago he wasn’t going to rest a hundred players in the final round, and so I had the Lions winning in BA. But I have my extreme doubts now.

Ackermann will be either a genius or heavily criticised by Monday, but there is an element of calculated risk: if Digger’s double-H picks get up, then it’s possible the Lions could lose to the Jaguares and still hold top spot.

And then that would be genius selecting.

Tips: Waratahs, Reds, Sharks, Crusaders, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, Jaguares.

The Big Question: (from Harry) Which coach’s stock rose the most in the regular season; whose fell the most?

Diggercane: “In terms of the best this season, I feel hands down that I must nominate Johan Ackermann.

“Not many, outside of those who watch Currie Cup would have predicted their current position on the table, let alone with a chance to finish the season as top qualifier across the conferences. The Lions journey has been quite remarkable; a squad a few seasons back that were viewed as admirable for their tenacious defence but little else has now grown into serious competition contenders along with several well deserved Springbok caps.

“With little recruiting done, Ackermann has transformed this squad over several seasons and is perhaps a lesson in what patience and belief can deliver over time rather than the instantaneous expectations many of us hold with regards to our sporting sides.

“Worst? Well a few Aussies have already met their fate through the season but the two that spring to mind is Raul Perez for the Jaguares and Nollis Marais for the Bulls. Perhaps a bit harsh on both considering this is their first season but with the available roster to both a poor return for their respective seasons.

“I tend to be a little more lenient towards Perez as this competition is new to him and his players given it is their first year but no such excuses for Marais whose Bulls are a well-established side and also included several experienced Springboks recruited at the beginning of the season, so Marais for me.”

Harry: “I’ll go with two 43-year old coaches as my Stock Rose and Stock Plummeted picks.

“Richard Graham is 43. It may be 43 years from now before a top club gives him the keys to the sheds. I have never seen such skulldigging ineptitude. It was like a Viking eating a chocolate soufflé. It was pudding in your pants. Graham seemed petulant in victory; clueless in defeat.

“But the Blues’ 43-year old bluesman, Tana Umaga, is a blue chip stock. Playing in the Pool of Death against four teams that would all win the Six Nations and the Nobel Prize too, his team is playing better each week. I think the Sharks should make him an offer; maybe Wales, too.”

Paddy: “Every Australian coach’s stock has fallen. At least it seems that way. Foley, Graham, Stiles and Larkham have plenty of questions to answer, and seemingly struggle to answer them. Daryl Gibson has been spared, but in Australian rugby you only get one year free of criticism, as Michael Cheika is finding out.

“I like Todd Blackadder as the one who’s restored a lot of credibility to his work, taking a Crusaders team that wasn’t necessarily all that fancied pre-season (does anyone remember the hype around the Blues?!?) to the top of the league. Obviously Johan Ackerman can’t go unmentioned here, but in the case for Todd what shouldn’t go ignored is the hyperbole around his coaching credentials in recent seasons. This season goes a long way to undoing any damage that was ever done in the past few years.”

Brett: It’s almost certainly Johan Ackerman whose stocks have risen the most – this week’s selection notwithstanding – but I’ll give Dave Rennie a big rap here.

In a season where his side might have been excused for coming back to the pack, with the loss of Sonny Bill Williams and Liam Messam to the Sevens program and a host of others in the annual churn, Rennie has somehow managed to rejuvenate his squad in record time, maintain their typically high standards, and produce yet more All Blacks. The early-season loss at home to the Lions might’ve raised a few questions, but wins in South Africa and Argentina and only two losses since have meant the Chiefs have been there or thereabouts all season.

And for the plummeting stocks, I’ll pick a different South African coach to Digger but for the same reasons. And this might be harsh on Gary Gold in that it’s his first season, too, but the way the Sharks recruited for 2016, I genuinely expected them to top Africa 2 reasonably comfortably, and that the Lions and Jaguares would fight with the Bulls for the last wildcard spot.

Instead, the Sharks may well hold on, and can be thankful for how up and down the Bulls have been and how ordinary the Jaguares have been in their conference, but they haven’t really done anything this season to make me set the alarm and watch them play live. And yes, injuries have played a role in that, but then again, only four teams have scored fewer tries this season – and they’re all on the bottom of the table!

The summary

The Crowd has picked…
..with surprising assuredness in a couple of games. I couldn’t believe the Blues started with such a wide margin, and I’m even more surprised that the margin never narrowed over the two days. Equally, the Highlanders started out at around 55%, and where I expected that margin to remain pretty steady, it lifted more then six percent.

But with two different picks to Digger, we could yet have a triumph for humanity!

The final picks and voting margins, with well over 400 votes registered:
81.7% Blues
67.1% Reds
98.3% Sharks
77.0% Crusaders
61.4% Highlanders
95.8% Brumbies
98.5% Stormers
78.8% Bulls
67.4% Jaguares