For all the debate and argument about Super Rugby’s conference format, and how that affects the finals series, what we’re left with is the eight best teams however you’d like to measure it.
You can’t ask much more from a competition that that.
Good form builds momentum, but ordinary form is irrelevant
An interesting choice of words post-match from the Brumbies on Saturday night, where – after starting a match strongly and with more intent than they’ve shown in this back half of the season – everything seemed to disintegrate after halftime.
There have been scoreless halves of Super Rugby before, but I’ve definitely not had to attempt commentary of a scoreless half of rugby before. And believe me, it was bloody hard work.
On the field post-match for ABC Grandstand, Brumbies prop Ben Alexander told me the Western Force’s defensive intensity was a really good lead-in for the finals.
“Oh, it’s definitely a good hit-out, rather than a cricket score where you don’t really get tested,” Alexander said, before putting a line in the sand, as far as his side’s form is concerned.
“The definitely tested us tonight, but the comp starts again now, it really does. It’s irrelevant how we’ve been playing; it all resets, and now we’ve got a home semi against a very good Highlanders side.”
It was a similar sentiment echoed by Stephen Larkham in the post-match presser.
“You have your ups and downs in the tournament, and certainly the second half was a half that we’re not particularly happy with, but it’s all irrelevant now,” Larkham said.
“It’s about putting it behind you and taking the things you can take out of it and moving onto the next job.”
And while Lions coach Johan Ackermann might similarly suggest that his side’s performance in Buenos Aires is now irrelevant (and he might actually have a case), I can’t imagine that Chris Boyd would suggest the form that catapulted his Hurricanes to the top of the log is suddenly irrelevant.
But such is the fine line between good and bad form. Good form is something you desire; something to milk every last inch and every last point from. Inconsistent form, or just plain horrible form, is something you want to put behind you as fast as humanly possible.
The Brumbies need to hit the reset button, and do whatever they need to do to stay alive in the competition. If there’s a silver lining in their reaching the playoffs in the kind of form that they have, it’s that their equation on Friday night is exactly the same as the seven other teams in the quarter-finals: win, or they’re gone.
So it’s very easy to say that Larkham is just trying to gloss over the way his side is playing. Because that’s exactly what he’s trying to do, and for the same obvious reason that he wouldn’t come out say, “Nope, we’ve been rubbish for several weeks now, and I think we’re in trouble.”
So teams a little way off their best do have to reset for the playoffs. They have to, otherwise the past 17 weeks of Super Rugby have been for nothing.
You can bet the Lions will be resetting while they wait for the Crusaders, and the Crusaders will want to reset too, even if for them resetting just means getting healthy again.
The Chiefs have had to reset their touring squad selection a couple of times even before they left Hamilton, but once they get to Cape Town, they’ll be looking to put their late fade-out behind them quick smart. And the Brumbies’ need for a reset is clear.
Momentum means everything once you reach the knockout stages. And the quicker teams can regain it, the better their chances of progression become.
The Brumbies’ form may well suggest they’re up against it on Friday night, but the fact they’re still alive means they can’t be completely written off.
They’ve had to finish with a better record than ten other sides over 17 rounds to get where they are, but come Friday night, they only have to play better than one team for 80 minutes.
The Run Home predictions revisited
Prior to Round 13 – which feels like eons ago, thanks to the June international window – you might recall I plotted the run home for the 12 teams in the competition who were, at that stage, still in the hunt for the playoffs.
With the last five rounds now complete and the top eight sorted, it might be worth taking one last look at how those predictions panned out.
In short, surprisingly close to the mark, considering my tipping form this season. To summarise…
• Six of the top eight finished in the position predicted, with the Hurricanes and Crusaders finishing in the opposite spots to my projections back in May.
• Though I didn’t estimate bonus points at the time, I got the final points right for the Lions and Stormers. And while I was wildly off with the Hurricanes and Crusaders, the other four teams finished within two points of my predictions.
• The four teams I had going undefeated over the final five rounds (the Lions, Stormers, Brumbies, Highlanders, and Crusaders) all suffered an unpredicted loss along the way. The Crusaders’ two unpredicted losses in the last three weeks was the difference between them finishing seventh and first, as I had projected.
What from here?
Well, I like the Highlanders again. And I say ‘again’, because despite writing back in February that I couldn’t understand why they weren’t starting the season as outright favourites, I don’t mind admitting that I was starting to wonder about them around mid-season.
Currently though, their late-season run shares all the hallmarks of 2015, and they’re hitting some excellent form at the right time once again. Over the last three weeks they’ve won in South Africa, Argentina, and at home, and they could well add Australia to that list by week’s end.
Buk
Guest
Dr Peppers ruled in Alabama when I was there
NaBUru38
Guest
Correct. It's terminology. I'm used to football and tennis terminology, with quarter-finals, semi-finals and final. So the NBA has a 7-game finals.
kiwineil
Guest
+1 Haylett-Petty is a better fullback than Folau now, tackles better, kicks better, covering/positioning better, and the only thing he cedes to Folau is attacking capability .... so on a 1:1 basis thats 3:1 to HP thankyou linesman, thankyou ballboys
aussikiwi
Guest
The joy of knock out stages (at least if you are not a favourite) is that the slate is truly wiped clean. Any one of the less favoured teams could do a Steve Bradbury and slip through the pack.
Don
Roar Rookie
I'd prefer qtrs, semis then final too Rhino. The Grand Final monicker probably comes about from our 2 largest domestic codes here - League and AFL. They don't have a qtrs, semis, final format. In an 8 team finals series both codes have 4 weeks or "rounds" of finals rather than 3 and the top finishing sides can't be eliminated in week one of finals.
avsfan
Guest
Drywall is one word in America.
Marius Ciliers
Roar Guru
Ghehehehe Harry. I must regress..I had you in mind when I chirped the Stormers. Some friendly banter to rile you up a bit. I really do hope the Stormers give us a spectacle of note and disprove everyone as regarding their validity. Win or loose. Not that they need too. Be blessed Harry.
Harry Jones
Expert
Never has a conference winning team been less respected, T-Man. But that's OK. If we are good enough, we'll win, if not, we won't.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Ha ha, well said Harry. Good luck with your side for this one. They've taken a lot of flak this year so a win over the Chiefs might stop some jibber jabber perhaps?
Pinetree
Guest
The Crusaders did not make the playoffs in 1996/97 as well, so the Blues did not play the Crusades in the KO stage. The Crusaders did beat the Stomers in SA in the p[layoffs 2011, but the Bulls were a fine team 2007-2010. Hard to beat. Not many teams win away in a playoff outside of their country, so the Kiwi teams will have to do this 3 times in the weekend. Since the conference system, a lot more teams have been winning away, but this is because of the unfair system which allows poorer sides to qualify higher than better ones. Anyone knows that home ground advantage is significant in any sport, and even a team that plays a weaker game will have a significant boost on a stronger team if the weaker team is at home. This means that the away team might have to be much better, and a little bit better might not cut it. This is why the automatic home QF for conference winners must stop, and the total table points be the guide for seeding the top 8. The Highlanders have had a rough deal 2 years in a row.
Ridzenieks
Guest
It will be difficult to beat a team with an 18 to 9 penalty advantage ( some of the 9 being at unimportant times and places). There will be a visitors' y.c. Breakdown and offside will be officiated one-sidedly. The TMO and the replay director will be slick and coordinated.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
No, no, no, no! Biscuits are had for breakfast! Especially in the South! They lather something they call "gravy", which is any kind of fat with some flavoring in it. Cookies are cookies. Have you ver watched Sesame Street and the Cookie Monster (I am related to him, less blue skin)? Do not confuse British "biscuit" with American "biscuit". Bad for you.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
A true american from the south would not order a coke, he/she would order a "soda".
Harry Jones
Expert
The Stormers will scrum and lineout the Chiefs into the mud and run them back to NZ crying
AndyS
Guest
I would have thought Union of all codes would understand, given the propensity for pretending that cup, bowl, plate, shield, etc finals all matter. Not to mention making the losing semifinalists in a knock-out tournament play it out to the humiliating end (the not-so-grand final perhaps?).
Chinmay Hejmadi
Roar Guru
Completely agree with the grand final thing. I think I remember hearing "World Cup Grand Final" once. Dunno whether it was for League or Union. Cracked me up.
Lube Goat
Guest
The final was a close enough affair last year. The big difference for me was the late withdrawal of Ardie Savea. It was enough for me to change my bet. I have rated him a '7 point player' and last year's result confirmed that as it was hard to separate the two teams, generally speaking. If the Lions beat the Crusaders won't the Highlanders meet the Hurricanes in the semis (assuming they both win their matches)?
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Hey Don on the flip side, in my experience it's only Australia that calls it "the finals" and the "grand final", which I always found very odd btw. What's wrong with simply saying the "final"? And Super rugby has been going 20 years with both South Africa and New Zealand, now Japan & Argentina so it's not only Australia involved, although understandably this is an Aussie site :-) So why not just the quarter finals, semi finals and final?
Marius Ciliers
Roar Guru
Enjoyed the write-up Brett. I agree with the reset comparison between the form of both hurricanes and brumbies. Especialy the refrence regarding good form and missing the plot then wanting to move on and reset. I missed those Round 1 brumbies all season. And I'm at an indicisive split whether I want that side to pitch up this weekend in Canberra.. As a small part of me feels they realy don't deserve a home quarter. More so I feel the Blues deserve a top 8 spot but were left out due to their schedule this year. Had they played Africa 1-2 or the Auz conference...they would be in the top 8. But thats not to be and I hope the Brumbies bring it. Because the Zoolanders are coming.. Hurricanes are in fine form,but they have chinks in the armor. Small and fixable. They gave my Crusaders a Thrashing,but sustained pressure from the get go for 80 mins,being starved off ball. Will crack and perhaps break that armor. As for my Saders. I would love for them to rise up and take the silverware. But there are in my eyes 4 other teams that are just better all round. Hurricanes Highlanders Chiefs Lions. And for me it isn't due to lack of good solid players,but coaching. I want the Crusaders team on the pitch in Ellis Park who along with the Highlanders gave the whole workd a spectacle of note in the Zoo. Minus our armor chinks and a sustainable attacking defence with epic finishing and tactical precision kicking. That team.. Will win the Competition. and there was no Nadolo during that match either.. As always. Be blessed guys. just my 2 cents. Oh...and the Chiefs..givem stormers hell...bhagagahaga
samalavich
Roar Rookie
Hi brett. If only u had such foresight with ur week to week tipping... I think as we saw over the last round teams coming off an easy win seemed to lack a bit of intensity, apart from landers maybe. The canes performed very well and I think the tough game against the tahs was good prep. Because of this factor I am very happy that the canes are not facing the saders again this weekend. The two teams I think will possibly have the most trouble are the Brumbies and stormers. However both have home advantage and as I think harry has said it will be raining in Cape Town this weekend so this evens things up a bit. My other big concern is the canes scrum. I'm sure that the sharks will be looking to exploit this weakness every chance they get. Good luck to all teams and supporters its going to be a great weekend