There are moments, fleeting moments, when you start talking yourself into North Melbourne as a legitimate premiership threat.
Last Friday night’s first quarter against Collingwood was one of them. Daniel Wells was accelerating like it was 2008 and hitting targets lace out. Drew Petrie was engaged, throwing Collingwood’s brazen, immature physicality back at them in productive, potent ways. Jack Ziebell had his Joel Selwood costume on, and Brent Harvey was doing all the things he’d done in his previous 425 games, and doing them as well as ever.
And yet still, something was lacking. It didn’t feel like North were a devastating force – there was no sense of inevitability about them, not in the way that Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney bring when they’re on. The Kangaroos are ‘just’ a well-oiled machine, and when Jeremy Howe is playing like he has money on the opposition, they’re clinical enough to punish.
A great team would have ended that insipid Collingwood team in the first quarter. And while the game was effectively over before the first quarter siren sounded, North fans were still forced to wait out some tense moments in the second half.
Greatness continues to elude Brad Scott’s team. They’re in the midst of one of the strangest three year runs in history – a team that finished sixth and eighth but made it to back to back preliminary finals, and then started 9-0 only to have their spot in the eight in jeopardy two months later.
Some would argue there’s no such thing as a lucky preliminary final berth, let alone two, but reality dictates otherwise. Collingwood had no business making the 2007 preliminary final, and Port Adelaide had even less of a right to go a week further the same year. Both were able to only because of the statistically insignificant chance of Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr all getting injured at the same time.
The caveat is, though, that we were one scrubbed goal away from a Collingwood-Port grand final that year, where one of them would have had to have snatched a premiership.
That’s the hope for a team like North Melbourne, a team that tops out somewhere between a B+ and an A-. Be good enough to make it to the September dance, and be clinical enough to pounce when misfortune besets the teams above them. They’re employing the Steven Bradbury strategy.
Of course, it’s not all luck, and you never get to skate an open lane to a preliminary final. North’s finals victories over Essendon and Richmond the past two seasons were two of the most stunning in recent memory, games where North defiantly and powerfully asserted its will in such a way that is typically unseen from teams that finish sixth and eighth.
But while North are capable of that force in week one of the finals, by week three it’s a different universe. Finals football is about finding new gears, and in North’s preliminary final defeats, Sydney and West Coast found a speed that the Roos had no chance of matching.
At 9-0 this season there was the hope that maybe North had transcended this existence and climbed into the elite. After 17 rounds, that hope has effectively died. They’ve been cruelled by injuries, but North are still only a paltry 2-5 against their top eight rivals, with only the loss to Hawthorn seriously competitive.
Last year against finals teams they were 2-6 in the home-and-away season (although it has to be said they were 5-3 in those games in 2014, beating three of the top four). A game and significant percentage out of the top four, with a brutal fixture to come, North have virtually no chance of snagging the double chance.
The Roos win less of the ball than every other team in the eight aside from the Eagles, and they have the worst inside 50 differential of any team set to play finals (ninth, behind the top seven and Melbourne).
They have a negative clearance differential and sit just eighth in the league in contested possession differential (admittedly we may have to adjust how importantly we view this stat, with the Hawks two games clear on top of the ladder and last by a mile in this metric, staring up at Brisbane and Essendon). They’re eighth in effective disposal percentage and marks inside 50.
In a nutshell, it’s hard to see exactly what they do that’s special, unless an uncanny ability to sit in the middle of the pack in almost every key statistical indicator should be deemed unique.
The question this begs is simple: where exactly are they going? Nick Dal Santo, 32 years old, is the team’s leading possession winner, and Daniel Wells, an old 31, is second. Michael Firrito, Drew Petrie, Scott Thompson, Jarrad Waite and Sam Gibson are all on the wrong side of 30 too. Brent Harvey is 57 years old but will likely play until he’s 70.
Andrew Swallow, Shaun Higgins, a banged-up Todd Goldstein and recently re-signed Lindsay Thomas shouldn’t be on the physical decline yet, but with all of them 28 or 29, don’t expect them to get much better. I thought Ben Cunnington would be on this list too given that he looks like a 43-year-old man, but he’s only 25, allegedly, so good for him.
The Roos have interesting but not breathtaking youth, and a number of players whose primes should last for a while yet. But their age profile is of a team built to win right now, and really, a year or two ago. But the talent hasn’t allowed for that, at least in the most meaningful sense.
The promise of the present for North is becoming muted, and the future is much more worrying. For the next five years, where do North’s prospects rank compared to the other Victorian clubs? The Saints and Bulldogs, their opponents in the next fortnight, surely have brighter futures.
The Demons and Pies have more exciting youth, and the Cats and Hawks, along with Sydney, have proven to have the most trustworthy infrastructure in the league. The Bombers are a murky haze, and the Blues, while promising, are still a lottery ticket. In effect, North are a strange corollary to Richmond, with a better coach, but with Jack Ziebell and Robbie Tarrant instead of Dustin Martin and Alex Rance.
Football, though, is not all about building for premierships, as much as the discourse might suggest it is. More often that not it’s about cherishing the intangible, the pleasure of watching a player like Dusty fight the world while his team is crumbling around him, or simply seeing Dale Thomas flirt with relevance again.
For North fans, it’s about admiring the class and polish of Nick Dal Santo and Daniel Wells, the wonderful absurdity of Ben Brown, the defiant, inconsistent struggle against father time for Drew Petrie, and the flashes of those two Geelong midfielders in Jack Ziebell.
More than anything, it’s about watching Brent Harvey, and all of his ridiculousness, and figuring out with a bemused grin how on Earth he still seems to be the fastest player on the ground, and how he’s still the surest bet in the game running into goal from 40 metres out, as he has been for two decades.
The present is something to be enjoyed for North fans, and there is something oddly powerful in knowing that, on balance across a whole season, your team has a better chance of winning than losing each week. Just don’t expect anything tangible to come from this year, or perhaps the next few years.
Slane
Guest
Record membership this year with more than 45,000 members for the first time in history.
John
Guest
I tend to agree with you regarding North a potential relocation option. They have played finals for afew years now and even when they were 9-0 they still couldn't sell out a game. There crowds are terrible does anyone even care about the Roos???
Bill
Guest
The lions will fold before north relocates.
Perry Bridge
Guest
We also need to bottom out and trade for early draft picks - have a 5 inside top 30 year if possible. Score a top 3 draft pick.
AussieBokkie
Guest
Harsh but oh so true. Our premiership window is firmly shut. We're a top 8 team and nothing more. We definitely need a couple more class players in the middle and the forward line but more than anything I put our mediocrity down to Brad Scott - he's a middle of the road coach with a chip on his shoulder and a bad attitude. We need a new coach, plain and simple. A coach that brings a nurturing positivity to the club and a proven track record. Scott has none of this. What I would do for Paul Roos to jump ship to Arden Street!! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Andrew, I think Luke Parker was injured too. And Nick Smith played injured, after missing the first week of the finals. I don't really consider Wells an injury you suddenly had to do without (unlike the Swans' injuries last year) - he's always missing with injury and therefore can't be relied upon. Every team would have loved to play Sydney that week. North just got the lucky ticket.
Tom M
Guest
Hit the nail on the head Jay. North just don't have enough premium talent in their side and haven't for a long time. They are probably 2 elite players off being a premiership side. Other than Goldstein they would not have 1 other player in the top 20 in the AFL, and even Goldy is having a bad year.
Perry Bridge
Guest
and that's the thing - for some teams simply making the finals and winning 1 or 2 is an achievement. As a North fan the '90s had the expectation of going all the way. Right now - it's just hope. That we've won 4 finals over the last 2 seasons is pretty cool - I've been to 2 of them and loved every minute. It is special having your club still in action when the majority of others are off on holidays. It is special pulling into the MCG carpark in springtime. It is special too to get to prelim final weekend - more so these days as no sides skips straight to the GF like in the old final 5. So - make the prelim final and for a short time you CAN dare to dream.
andrew
Guest
that was a great day. warm spring day. the pubs were full at 12noon. you couldnt get into the london tavern at 12:15pm or any other pub in richmond. some richmond fan was mouthing off jarrad waite as a 'richmond reject' in the first quarter, and copped a lot back the other way, including a few retorts about shaun grigg being the same thing. yeah, it wasnt a flag, and hawks supports can scoff at the pleasure a supporter gets from winning a final, but it was a very enjoyable afternoon nonetheless and a pretty good game of fooy too, even for neutral fans
Perry Bridge
Guest
Beating Richmond in last years elim final in front of 90,000 at the MCG was as good as it gets......premierships are nice but moments can be special.
Josh
Expert
I do quite like the last few pars. I agree, despite what is often said by teams about only existing to win premierships etc, let's be honest, it's not true at all really, they're about community, giving fans something to enjoy, something to unite around, something to be passionate about, while having it all be in good fun. Good times, good memories, in good company. I'd love to see a flag come from this NMFC era and genuinely believe it could happen, that said, if it doesn't, I'll never consider it a waste simply because of how much I've enjoyed the ride.
Josh
Expert
Comparing North to Richmond, Jay? I don't think I've ever been more insulted in my life (and I'm sure Cam would agree!) ;)
BigAl
Guest
Another excellent piece Jay ! - hope you can keep it up
Perry Bridge
Guest
between that miss and some truly atrocious umpiring calls (that even Derek Humphrey-Smith on SEN was rankled by). Eagles were very much helped back into that game and then they ran away with it. Key for North is - they get a look - need to take their chances - and other teams know North will give them a look and therefore they need to take their chances.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
There are a truckload of younger players coming through. Daw, Wood, Black to replace Petrie and Waite up front too. Plus buckets of cash as the older brigade retire. The future is pretty rosy.
Perry Bridge
Guest
As a North fan I was keen this year for the young brigade of Garner, Turner, Wood, Dumont (Anderson) and Daw to impose themselves and push some of the older guys out. Alas - Garner, Turner (Anderson) and Wood all had majorly interrupted seasons due to injury. That's the worst thing for us this year. Generational change is great when in happens during the season. As it is - we've at least got a look now at Clarke and Wagner. Pruess has impressed with Werribee in the ruck (a 206cm and very solid talent from Townsville). Certainly for the time being - it's the hope of one last hurrah for the loyal group of Boomer, Petrie Spud, Wellsy. Unfortunately the injuries in the 1st qtr v Geelong couldn't have come at a worse time and derailed the tough run into the bye. Dropping the Hawthorn game really hurt - 4 pts there would've ironically enough not changed much about the ladder but would've had 7 teams all on 48 pts in equal 2nd. Come finals time - often one team has gone a week beyond where they could - some teams 'hit the wall' in the 1st wk of finals, some in the GF. North hit the wall in 2014 prelim in Sydney and Sydney hit the wall the following week. This year though - the main question is around the impact of the bye post round 23. This year there is more chance than previous seasons for a team like North to regather the troops (Higgins, Wright, Jacobs, McDonald). This year there's more chance that a top 4 side will be hampered rather than helped by the week off after winning through to the prelim and having 2 weeks off in 3. This year the AFL has created a bit of a rod for its back based perhaps on over reaction to the Rnd 23 antics of North and Freo last year. At this point - perhaps North - should they win this week - might again be in a position, pretty well 4 weeks out, due to % and fixture to decide that it may as well just feather the props for the last month with little to be gained.
andrew
Guest
dougie, can you pls recite to me the full extent of the swans injuires. i think it was kieren jack, franklin and reid. north were without tarrant and wells. tarrant and wells would be running 1 and 2 in the BF at north so far this year. tarrant woudl have been franklins direct opponent. tarrant pulled out in the warm up, so this would have required a full restructure of the weeks planning for the entire backline in the last 5 mins was the injury discrepancy really that significant, or just a convenient excuse to dismiss what any fair-minded person would say was a good result to win a final away from home.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
You mentioned their strange three-year run, but also don't forget their bizarre 2013 where they were pretty good but choked away about 5 games in the last five minutes and didn't even make the 8. So it's a strange four-year run! P.S. I'm still filthy about Waite missing a shot from 20m in the West Coast prelim, which would have given them a 25-point quarter-time lead. I don't really care about North but a defiant prelim win in Perth would have rewritten their modern history.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I suppose it is easy to put the boot into North Melbourne, I’m as guilty as the next man of calling them an irrelevance. But on the other hand, you can’t fault their approach, you’re either contending or you’re rebuilding, so if they were contending they may as well have gone all in. Going to leave them in a bit of a hole down the track though. What is the long-term future for North? Surely they’re the leading contender to be relocated if the AFL decides it wants to expand again & doesn’t want to go bigger than 18 teams.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Harsh but true, Jay. North supporters bristle when people don't rate them in the top echelon, but their two recent prelim final appearances were examples of over-achieving and capitalising on a heap of luck that fell their way (e.g. manufacturing to play against the "finals stage-fright" Tigers and then coming up against an injury-ravaged Swans outfit). But good luck to them for making the most of their finals appearances (and kudos to the coaching for that) - they've done better than many other clubs in that regard. The trouble is they rely too often on banged-up geriatrics.