Super Rugby tipping: The final arguments

And then there was two. This won’t apply to everyone on the panel, but I find myself in the situation this weekend where I can enjoy the Final between the Hurricanes and the Lions for the great game it will be.

It is going to be great, and I’m really looking forward to it. And I won’t care one iota about the result, or who lifts the brand new Super Rugby cup, either.

I had the same feeling last year, and perhaps that’s why moments of that game have stuck with me for much longer than I usually manage. There’s a lot to like about enjoying rugby for the rugby, with the result almost secondary.

Obviously, though, one of our participants will have enough nerves for all of us, so let’s get into it…

Last week: Both winners correct for everyone, bar Digger.

Diggercane: “Pressure, pressure, pressure. Who can handle it the best?

“It is right to point out that there is plenty of pressure on the Hurricanes. An expectant public, long suffering and all of that, not to mention playing at home; perhaps this will prove suffocating, but what a grand opportunity to wipe away the anguish of last season and so soon.

“With the Lions having to travel as well, circumstances certainly favour my lads. Plenty of talk that the Lions can just turn up and have a crack, no pressure and all that. What an absolute load of nonsense. Do you expect me to believe that the Lions put in all that hard work and sacrificed just so they can clap their hands, dance a jig and proclaim ‘Yah us, we made a final!’? Whatever, pressure goes both ways.

“They too will have an expectant public behind them, not to mention their own desires. They know the record of overseas sides in New Zealand, they know the challenge they have to face, and it will be playing on their minds, and they know they can do it. The Lions have a grand opportunity to create their own piece of Super and South African rugby history. They know it and the nerves will be there, just as much as the Hurricanes.

“The Lions have only had to make the one trip for one all out massive assault; the travel talk isn’t relevant to me for this game. Away from altitude? Nah, this is a professional outfit, the adjustments they need to make, particularly with their kicking game will be made. None of that matters. If the weather is wet, windy and cold, the Lions have the power players and set piece. This is an in-form team and the long odds from the TAB make little sense to me.

“Both sides will have incredible motivation to take this out, both sides have form players in key positions, both sides will be farewelling integral members after this match. It doesn’t get better than this.

“It has been mentioned before but the key element to me is defence. The Hurricanes defence has been exceptional in their last three matches and while talk of the quality of the opposition and chances blown are perhaps valid, fact remains there is a determination in the Hurricanes in this area and I do not feel that same edge exists with the Lions. It is true the Lions attack has done the job for them and their games have been won comfortably but they still leaked quite a few as well. A direct comparison would be both sides respective matches with the Crusaders within a week, and the Hurricanes did it in Christchurch. I would also point to the Chiefs leaking a few against the Stormers the week before as well as an example of my point.

“The Hurricanes cannot rest on their laurels in defence however. I expect the Lions will be relentless in attack and we cannot just sit back and expect to absorb it and live off counter attack, similar to the game against the Chiefs last week. We have the firepower, use it and I am sure we will.

“Perhaps there is an air of destiny around these Lions, they have been in sublime form and their journey over the past several seasons has been remarkable, certainly to the point where a few journos may wish to revisit their musings from the past.

“They are more than capable of grabbing the title but my crystal ball says otherwise. Either way, I am going to thoroughly enjoy taking it all in live.

“So, for the last time this Super Rugby season: ‘Canes by plenty.”

Harry Jones: “There is nothing I don’t like about this final pairing. It’s like bacon and eggs, fish and chips, beer and brats, yoga and pants, Paddy and a beard. Two teams who obviously love playing rugby for coach, mates, fans, and life.

“Both teams know what they are about and they try to just go do that thing, without any excuses. There is nobody to love to hate in this match. (I have learned to like Elton Jantjies, and then he went and got choked up on TV after his mastermind performance last week, and I got a bit verklempt myself).

“Both teams have players who are playing the best rugby of their career: the talented, but finally ruthless Jantjies, the unbelievably dangerous BBBBB, the rampaging Standard Poodle Ardie Savea and his opposite number Jaco “Hitman” Kriel, Franco “Mustard Sauce” Mostert and his foe Vaea Fifita, and lightning-quick Courtnall Skosan.

“Both teams have players going well, but could even play better on the big stage: (the rather lucky) TJ Perenara, Cory Jane, Brad Shields, Ruan Combrinck, Malcolm Marx, and Faf de Klerk.

“Both teams are waiting on their captains. Both have players wanting to leave on a high note or finish a very long journey: Victor Vito gets his 100th cap and Mostert is headed away. You’d expect a red hot go from all.

“I suppose an unheralded match-up could play a part, here. How about Dillon Smith, the young Lion prop, who will try to use Marx’s strength to pincer and punish Ben May? Or the captaincy contest itself: if it is Kriel versus Perenara and decisions to go for three or a maul in the Wellington wet?

“Both have a few holes: the Lions can be porous on defence, their fullback is very inexperienced, Jantjies does not love to move sideways to tackle, and Faf can lose the plot at times. The ‘Canes may have to ask Ricky ‘Tortellini’ Riccitelli to make too many crucial throws over Mostert and Warren Whiteley, and they just might be a bit slow on the edges to contain the Lions’ bursts.

Paddy Effeney: “We come to it, the final time you have to follow my tips. At least for this season.

“Early mail is I won’t be called up for the Rugby Championship, which means I’ll have to languish in the lower leagues somewhere, hoping to impress Mr McKay with my tipping form. Maybe the NRC?

Brett’s note: Now there’s an idea. My people will speak to yours…

“But to the matter at hand, I’m going to be different and say it will be the Hurricanes who will win their first Super Rugby title.

“Let me also say this – if the Lions hadn’t rested their team against the Jaguares they would have won the Super Rugby trophy. That is a crying shame if you ask me, but by sacrificing the home and travel advantage, I think the Lions killed their hopes.”

Brett McKay: On one hand, the ‘Canes really deserve to win this. They’ve been through the pain of making and losing Finals before, and had you have said twenty years ago that the Hurricanes would be the last of the five New Zealand sides to win a Super Rugby title, you might’ve been laughed out of the room.

The Hurricanes have had to regroup after the heartbreaking 2015 defeat, rebuild after losing some serious experience after the Rugby World Cup, and talent to injury. They were thumped in the first round and started probably slower than they wanted to, but really hit their straps in the back half of the season and since the July resumption.

They’re in cracking form, playing exceptionally well from 1 to 23, and they’ll be front of a massive home crowd with the ‘full house’ sign handing off the Cake Tin.

But on the other hand, the Lions really deserve to win this. They’ve been through name changes and unhealthy marriages and shared custody of home grounds and support bases, and just as they were finding their own identity, they lost their place in the competition to a side put together by politicians.

Had you have said in 2013, while they sat out the season kicking cans, that the Lions would play a Super Rugby Final within three seasons, you’d have been similarly laughed out of the room.

They’ve had to rebuild over the course of a few seasons, with coaches and the young playing group working together in perfect harmony for the same cause. Collectively, they’ve all gone from being no-names to demanding Springbok selection, and were genuinely one of the best teams of 2016.

The Lions are in cracking form, playing exceptionally well from 1 to 23, and they’re playing with a level confidence that fears no-one, regardless of where they’re playing.

I’m tipping the ‘Canes, but probably only because I can’t leave the space blank. And I do want the Hurricanes to win… just as much as I want the Lions to win. I can’t wait for Saturday night.

The Big Question: You’ve made your tip, but now the really hard bit: what’s the winning margin, and who will be the Player of the Final?

Diggercane: “So many options but I will say ‘Canes by 11, and go all sentimental on it and say Victor Vito will be the player of the final in his last and 100th match for the franchise. What a way to bow out!”

Harry: “Diggercane is a gentleman, a jolly specimen; the best of units, a prince of a guy, but his ‘Canes will be unable to dam the flood of Lions’ ball carriers: Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Combrinck, Kriel, Lionel Mapoe and Mr Lightning will be too much to stop in their own 22, Combrinck will make a few long penalties, and the Canes won’t score enough.

“Lions by 5. Man of the Match: Ruan Combrinck.”

Paddy: “’Canes to win by 12 points, with TJ Perenara to be the man of the match, as well as drink the most beers that night.”

Brett: The ‘Canes haven’t had their line breached in 200 minutes of rugby, but the Lions have been the best attacking team in the comp by a good margin (it’s still 11 tries, for the record). The Hurricanes have shown they can comprehensively put teams away in the best conditions Wellington can serve up, but the Lions are well equipped to turn the Final into – and win – a forwards battle.

It’s going to be really close, probably only a converted try. But it could just as easily be 21-14 as it could be 45-38, and it would be no less enthralling. Either way, it reads Hurricanes by 7.

I like Paddy’s shout for TJ Perenara, and he’s been outstanding in the last few weeks, but I think about who was the difference for the Highlanders last year, and I think it’s going to be that same no frills, no-nonsense workhorse-type of player. Brad Shields well and truly fits that mould.

The summary

The Crowd’s pick for the Final is…
…the Hurricanes!

67.9% of well over 400 responses received. Thanks once again for the responses, and for your participation throughout the Super Rugby season. Stay tuned for what we have in store for The Rugby Championship.