I mean no disrespect to the Welsh team or their fans that toured New Zealand recently but the era of the All Blacks A.M (after McCaw) truly starts this week in Bledisloe Cup 1.
Forget everything that happened in June, it will be a different Wallaby and All Blacks side that will face off on Saturday night. Different because the teams understand the occasion, the history, the quality of the opposition and speed and intensity will be a level up from their last Tests.
The Wallabies build-up has been under a cloud as long as the proverbial one covering the home nation of their opposition. An unexpected and humbling whitewash series defeat to England, and unexpected struggles against Kiwi opposition in Super rugby has left many Australian rugby fans bereft of hope and faith in their side.
On the other side of the ditch, expectations are high after a Super season where most (not all) of the superb rugby was played by New Zealand sides and the All Blacks showed pleasing signs against Wales that their Rolls Royce engine is still humming in tune.
Michael Cheika’s famed motivational strategies and siege mentality will stoke and provoke his charges to channel the pessimism from the press and general public to deliver a performance “the country can be proud of”.
On the other side of the ditch, the All Blacks are always expected to win before a tough-marking press and public. The team will look for improving ball security, defensive security, and accurate decision making to deliver a performance they can be proud of.
Publicly there have been statements from senior players (but not the coach) that the Wallabies need to change the way they play. Their adherence to the running game is admirable but has also made them predictable. It’s also debatable if fans would prefer to see their team just win, or lose playing a style that is more palatable.
On the other side of the ditch, with personnel changes in some key positions, the All Blacks aren’t expected to vary their tactics a great deal in the first Bledisloe. How the team evolves and exploits the high speed, high skill, offloading game played in Super rugby will be keenly watched. The All Blacks are pragmatic and understand the value of knowing style doesn’t come before a win in Test rugby.
The astute recruitment of skills coach Mick Byrne has excited many local fans as to what they can expect to see, but enthusiasm needs to be tempered with patience as the improvement of New Zealand rugby skills evolved over ten years and not four weeks.
On the other side of the ditch there is general acknowledgement that Byrne will be a great asset for Australia. His proactive call to Steve Hansen advising of his plans and offering assurances that he won’t divulge any IP from time spent with the All Blacks was well received and taken at face value. What was noticeable from some Kiwi teams during the finals was their inconsistency under the high ball, which has so long been a strength of their game.
Senior Wallaby players that departed these shores for European clubs have returned amidst murmurings of discontent about whether their spots have been earned at the expense of player development.
On the other side of the ditch the most exciting back in New Zealand rugby this year – Damian McKenzie – has been left behind to cool his heels and continue working on his game. Fans are disappointed but patient – as long as the All Blacks keep winning. Cue calls for team changes if the All Blacks fall this weekend.
The Wallabies are a team that does well when their backs against the wall and they’ve been written off. They have no injury problems and the return of David Pocock cannot be underestimated in terms of his influence in a game. Similarly but not as obvious, the value Kane Douglas offers the team was sorely missing against England. Rob Simmons is a lock-in as he’s the best ball winner and they struggled against England when he was dropped for the second Test and left the field injured during the third Test. Will Skelton, Rory Arnold, Adam Coleman, James Horwill and Dean Mumm were all tried as partners with none securing the position.
The Wallabies have had longer to prepare for this weekend, which will either be seen as an advantage or a disadvantage depending upon the result. The combined Test match experience of the French foreign legion does convey greater assurance and security in the backline, particularly in the back three compared to players available against England.
What is unknown is whether European competitions has blunted their speed, fitness and ability.
Unlike last year the Wallabies won’t be able to build into the Rugby Championship before facing the All Blacks, their best result in this opening championship fixture being a 12-12 draw in 2014. But home advantage is still an advantage.
On the other side of the ditch, the All Blacks have had a settled build-up and are strong favourites to win. On paper the team doesn’t look as solid or balanced in some positions due to form, injuries and retirements.
Four New Zealand teams featuring in the Super Rugby finals is seen as an advantage, but time will tell depending upon the result. Pressure is building on Julian Savea to perform. The public’s patience will only extend so far for one of their favourite sons and regardless of the result, he needs to deliver a timely reminder of why he was the most feared wing in world rugby to justify his continued selection.
The internal battles between Beauden Barrett and Aaron Cruden, Sam Cane and Savea only serve as distractions to fill the vacuum left by two all-time greats of the game. Neither player will weaken the team. An excellent analysis by Ben Strang in this article highlights the different strengths of Cane and Savea.
Winning in Sydney has never been easy for the All Blacks and spending the week on enemy soil will give them a sense of what to expect. Already the barbs thrown by both coaches will ensure there will be more attention to what would otherwise be seen as a foregone conclusion.
Damo
Guest
You will be going to the auckland test with it being at 1-1 but i'm sorry to say the all blacks will win that one too.They may lose the first game but how often do they lose twice in row? and lose in their home ground?Not going to happen so its going to be another black jersey lifting the cup.
Timbo (L)
Guest
Don, I am with you pooping on Pooper. Pocock is a good #7 in his own right, That should be his spot, he is being unfairly judged as a bad number 8. MacCalman is the #8 you are looking for. He can run, Jump and work the back end of a scrum. I have full respect for MacMahon but he is living in Fardy's shadow (for now). A great resource to have on the bench and the future of Australia's back row. It's all academic anyway. Hooper will be selected and he needs a patsy at #8 to do his chores for him - that's Pocock or MacMahon, Pocock is better at picking up Hooper's slack. It may help to note that Dixon was instrumental in taking apart the Brumbies line out, apart, I don't think Kaino can do that. (MacMahon, McCalman, Fardy, Coleman, Carter) vs (Whitelock, Retallic, Reid, Savea, Dixon) would be good to watch.
Harry
Guest
If we do half as well as the English cricket side have since Warne and McGrath retired (for your information they have won 4 out of the 5 series contested since) I will be very stoked! i.e. two out of the next 5 Bledisloe series will do me just fine! But yes get your point however to extend your analogy - AAC, Moore, Pocock, Giteau, Mitchell; are like Atherton, Stewart, Darren Gough, Hussain, Hick ... very good test players with long and distinguished careers, but never actually came close to beating the number one team in the world in their time.
Faith
Guest
Nonu was always generally very effective against Australia. Its a hard call but Wallabies stand as good a chance in this Test than any other in recent times. If they can't win this it will take awhile to be able to do anything against the ABs for a very long time considering the general lack of cattle and the fact that there's no way the Cheika will be able to re-invent himself to provide direction to beat ABs ...
Frank O'Keeffe
Guest
I must confess that when I frequent The Roar (which is not much these days), I often scroll down the pages until I see certain names. One of them is Sam Taulelei. I don't think the 3-0 series loss to England was too big a catastrophe. The second Test loss was annoying because the Wallabies had a mountain of possession and had no clue how to attack. But the third Test was a great Test to watch. If you were a neutral watching that Test, you could appreciate a quality Test of rugby. All you say was hats off to England. That said, there are some huge question marks over both sides. Last year's World Cup Final was a weird Test. The Wallabies literally played NO RUGBY at all for the first 40 minutes of that half. It reminded me of the 1991 World Cup Semi Final, only in reverse, where one side was pinned to one end of the ground. The fleeting moment the Wallabies went forward, they booted one penalty, and that was it. Then the All Blacks fell to 14 men, and suddenly the Test has come alive... somehow. Then Carter's boot intervened. The Test revealed that a lot of the Wallabies' success was smoke and mirrors. The Wallabies barely beat a horrid Scottish side, and were lucky to do so. They came up against a spent Argentina. We had an easy run to the final after a tough group stage. The Wallabies have to demonstrate that they can attack. I'm not a huge fan of Foley at 10, but he's the best Australia has. I can't see him setting up tries like Quade Cooper could in 2010... but if the Test is dominated by penalties, and he plays territory well, then we're in with a chance. Cruden is a weird one. In the past years there's almost been no difference between him and Dan Carter when Cruden plays in Auckland. Away from New Zealand, he's not great... but not bad either... There once was a time when the two All Blacks I feared most were Carter and McCaw (and Hayman before he left), but the last two years the All Black who scares me the most was Nonu. He improved so much since when he first started in 2008. I don't know where his place in All Black history sits, really. Is he in the league of the Schusters and Little's? I think so... Nonu was underrated for the stability he gave Carter. Carter and SBW weren't great together, IMO. A bit like Mark Ella and Lloyd Walker for Randwick, in the Carter/Nonu relationship, Carter got a bit too much love. I'm happy Nonu has retired. How the All Blacks will go without Nonu is going to be interesting to me? For me, the Wallabies are in the position the English cricket side was in shortly after Warne and McGrath's retirement. There might be a chance for a smash and grab raid, without many people seeing it coming. If you were a neutral, you would really have to say that for this "rivalry", Australia just have to win. I am so bloody sick to death of seeing the All Blacks with the Bledisloe Cup it's not funny! All things being equal, I will be going to the 3rd Test in Auckland, and I don't want it to be 2-0 to NZ when I go. So hopefully the Wallabies can out their best front foot forward. Frank will be the key reason why the Wallabies will become the first side to beat NZ in Auckland since 1994. Even if I have to put on a Wallaby jersey myself and storm the field myself!
McCaw was onside?
Guest
Yeah, I wouldnt confuse fan confidence with ABs confidence. There is simply not a culture in and around the ABs that allows compacency.
Harry Jones
Expert
Let's play, already.
Crispy Duck
Roar Rookie
I will be amazed if this is not exactly right. Maybe Genia for Phipps to start but i dont know how its looking in training.
Crispy Duck
Roar Rookie
same. skipped through roughly 500 comments about the non-event of Cheika/Hansen handbags looking for someone to actually talk about the game. This article is a breath of fresh air.
Steve Wright
Guest
There's been a mistake here. The personnel list above is the 1954 one.
Steve Wright
Guest
Yup, but only with the ones whose ear to ear space is occupied with no slump concrete.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes they don't seem to get ideal preparation in the NH it seems. Last year Mitchell came back fat and unfit. This years he's in rehab. Perhaps the whole squad should play in the north?
Wardad
Guest
Any smart organisation losing a key member of lets say their IT or security would of course change security codes and wot-not .And I would say theres not a vast amount of difference in organisational setups and training to be gleaned .
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Good one Sam - and I'm sure you're first statement is right. The midweek fixture between the Chiefs youth team and Wales 2nd XV showed the true gap on tour. Wallabies + European reinforcements will be very different, esp with Moala now out.
Ralph
Roar Guru
I see what you did there ..
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Thanks for the update Fox. Cheika may be bold enough to shift Folau into the centres.
Richard
Guest
" I know what you mean "
Fox
Roar Guru
Well on the game front, news flash George Moala is out with injury so it will be Crotty and Fekitoa in the centers. May have been heading that way anyway but still more injuries to the All Black centers.
Harry
Guest
Byrne has enough work to do teaching Australian players how to kick, catch and pass a ball in front of the recipient before he reveals anything of value.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Nasty business there Doc!