The Big Rugby Championship Question: The case of the least-worst losers

So here we are, the funny bye weekend. It’s the weekend where the Australians and South Africans among us are left to stew on uncomfortable losses for another week.

Meanwhile, the Argentinians and New Zealanders rather quite enjoy themselves.

But that’s all about to change. For one thing, either the Australians or South Africans will soon have something to be happy about. Unless there’s a heartbreaking draw, that is.

And the Pumas? Well, right at the moment, I suspect they have no fears about the New Zealanders. But no-one does when they don’t have to play them for another week!

It’s a good question this week, with much anticipation around it, with ‘Nobes’ putting forward his first question to the panel. As expected, it’s a cracker.

The Big Question: Which team has the edge to come out as a winner in the game to be played between the Wallabies and Springboks and why? (from Nobes)

Nobes: “Are Australia and South Africa in such a bad shape as everyone is claiming to be the case or are the All Blacks way above everybody else? I think the latter is the case. The All Blacks, even when they are not playing “well”, can win with ease.

Therefore, I find myself in a very comfortable position to say that I think they already won The Rugby Championship. They have too many talented players, injuries are taxing the other teams, depriving them from the depth required to bring about the challenge attempt against the All Blacks.

So the excitement in this edition of the Rugby Championship is not in the games the All Blacks are playing – I would call these exhibition games- but in those matches New Zealand is not involved.

Next tipping will not require much thought about the game to be played in NZ, but it is major dare to predict about the one in Australia.

South Africa and the quota system is having a major impact on the Springboks as well.

You have the Wallabies that are having a hard time coping with the idea that rugby union is not a major Australian sport. That’s despite the fact that they have two Rugby World Cups in their bellies they have fail to attract the interest of the Australian people into rugby union.”

Diggercane: “A difficult question to weigh up, a nice curly one first up from our Argentinian contingent.

“In my mind I will have to say the Wallabies based on their harder preparation in terms of opposition to begin The Rugby Championship should leave them better prepared.

“I would also suggest the motivation will well and truly lies with the Wallabies given the game at home and while both teams have been savaged by fans and press alike, my gut feeling suggests the Wallabies will have the superior drivers.

“I am also really annoyed that Malcolm Marx is continually ignored which is stupidity in the extreme and I also do not believe the Springboks are playing with the form to exploit the Wallabies weaknesses.

“So, to end my rambling, Wallabies have the edge in my view.”

Harry Jones: “So, it’s the battle of the incompetent coaching staffs in Brisbane. The bitter blame-gamers against the nice but blissfully unaware. Two hookers dreadfully out of form ‘captaining’ their sides. Adriaan Strauss has played 398 of the 400 minutes of Allister Coetzee’s stuttering tenure.

Imagine if an in-form Malcolm Marx had played 250 minutes instead, with Bismarck du Plessis coming on in the second halves?

“Michael Cheika is the tragic tenor in some sort of rugby opera with sycophants at his side, wailing a lament. ‘Lineout, lineout, figaro, fooper, pooper, dooper, mama mia.’ Maybe it’s Tosca, in which all the main protagonists expire in the end.

“Assessing respective chances on the Gold Coast is tricky. Australia were never really in either Bledisloe. Meanwhile, the Puma-Bok series was gripping test footy with excellence on both sides at set piece and All Blacksolutely brutal tackling. But Coetzee and his assistants, particularly defence coach Chean Roux and backline coach Mzwandile Stick, are coaching their players down a few levels.

“The 10-12-13 Bok axis is clueless. Elton Jantjies is creating log jams with his hesitation moves, Damian de Allende is missing his tackles and his passes, and Lionel Mapoe is tentative. In addition, the Bok captain has been almost invisible; his only credential currently is pinpoint lineout throwing.

“Still it’s difficult to know if Australia was as bad as they looked. But it was bad rugby. Steve Hansen reckons the Bok-Puma tests were better rugby than the Bledisloes. I agree with Shag. I believe SA has easier fixes than OZ (kicking practice, use Johan Goosen differently, bench Jantjies, use PSDT more, build quicker ball); but I have less of an idea about this matchup than I have had in years.”

Brett McKay: I certainly agree with Harry’s point about it being tough to assess respective chances on the Gold Coast next weekend. Particularly when the game is being played up the highway in Brisbane.

But our learned South African friend is excused for such a simple mistake; after all, who hasn’t assumed the Stormers play in Port Elizabeth?

Regardless, his core reasoning is solid. I only this week wrote on another site that “…a lot of the angst Wallabies fans are currently feeling – and it’s a lot, believe me – is being shared by Springbok fans, too.” The parallels between the struggles of both teams are scarily similar.

So who’s better placed? Well, it might just be the Wallabies, but probably only because the game is being played in Australia. Had this question come up the week before the game at Loftus (which is in Johannesburg, yeah?), then I suspect the Springboks might have a slight edge.

As it is, I think the Boks have a clear lineout edge, though that’s cancelled out by the Wallabies performing pretty well at scrum time. The breakdown is pretty even – selection lotto notwithstanding – so it then comes down to the backline.

And here, funnily enough, I think Quade Cooper just gives the Wallabies a bit more stability and surety in contrast to Elton Jantjies. Let’s just ponder that sentence for a bit, shall we!

Cooper definitely added a little ‘something’ to the Wallabies attack last weekend, something that had been missing previously. I can’t entirely pin down what that something is, but it’s definitely there. And playing at home, on the back of what I expect will be the long-awaited news of his Reds return later today, will have Cooper primed for a big one.

Tips

Last week: Nobes, Brett, The Crowd 2; Digger and Harry 1

Very happy to report that Nobes broke his drought last week, getting both the All Blacks and his beloved Pumas right. Sadly for him though, so did I. Sadly for me, that means he’s still making somewhat scary threats.

And sadly for all of us, The Crowd is yet to blemish their record for The Rugby Championship.

The Summary