Elimination finals are a harsh game of footy and it won’t get much harsher than the meeting between the West Coast Eagles and the Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium, which kicks off the finals series on Thursday night.
A loss for either of these sides doesn’t just mean elimination but also means an off-season of disappointment with both teams probably expecting at the start of the year that they would go further than a first-week finals exit.
The Eagles, of course, were last year’s runners-up and would have gone into the season hoping to go one better and win a flag – at the very least they would have hoped for a top-four finish. Those dreams both seem a little unlikely at this stage but they can at least keep themselves in the running with a win here.
» The Roar’s comprehensive guide to the 2016 AFL Finals
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, were knocked out at this same stage last year, losing an absolute thriller of a match against the Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium. They’ve been so impressive over the past two years and would really love to have a finals win to show for it.
The seasons of both sides have had some significant twists and turns. The Eagles were one of the most disappointing sides in the league for much of the year, but they have really managed to turn it round in the last month with wins over GWS, Hawthorn and Adelaide – two of those on the road.
They seem to have rediscovered a bit of that physicality and pressure that made them an excellent team in 2015, allowing them to deny their opponents space and in doing so create turnovers the allow them to dominate the game.
That will be an interesting clash of styles with the Western Bulldogs who like to do quite a bit of the same thing, playing a game based around suffocating pressure on the ball-carrier, dominance in the contested ball, and excellent kicking skills.
However while the Eagles are coming into this match in their hottest form of the season, the Bulldogs are at a low ebb – they’ve accumulated injuries during the year like it’s going out of style, and it has hampered their ability to really be competitive.
In the last six matches of the AFL season they’ve gone a 3-3 record, with losses to St Kilda, Geelong and Fremantle. Their wins came over non-finals sides Essendon and Collingwood (by only 3 points), and a fellow top-eight team with similar injury issues in North Melbourne.
The good news for the Bulldogs is that they have regained a number of injured stars this week. However, bringing these players back into the side for a do-or-die game without any VFL-level prep time is a roll of the dice that, as much as it could wildly succeed, could just as easily backfire.
Last five matches
Round 11, 2016 – Western Bulldogs 12.11.83 defeated West Coast Eagles 11.9.75 – Etihad Stadium
Round 21, 2015 – West Coast Eagles 25.12.162 defeated Western Bulldogs 13.7.85 – Domain Stadium
Round 1, 2015 – Western Bulldogs 14.13.97 defeated West Coast Eagles 14.3.87 – Etihad Stadium
Round 1, 2014 – West Coast Eagles 21.8.134 defeated Western Bulldogs 11.3.69 – Domain Stadium
Round 18, 2013 – Western Bulldogs 16.5.111 defeated West Coast Eagles 13.11.89 – Etihad Stadium
Team news
The Eagles have made only a single change in this match – former Swan Lewis Jetta will miss because of a calf injury, and Mitch Brown has been called up to the side as his replacement.
The Bulldogs have made a raft of changes with five senior players returning. They are Tom Liberator, Jack Macrae, Jake Stringer, Easton Wood and Jordan Roughead.
The Dogs didn’t have any injuries and so have dropped five players to make way for the returnees. Koby Stevens, Bailey Williams, Nathan Hrovat, Will Minson and Fletcher Roberts are the players who will miss.
West Coast Eagles
In: Mitchell Brown
Out: Lewis Jetta (Calf)B: Brad Sheppard, Will Schofield, Thomas Barrass
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Elliot Yeo, Matt Priddis, Jamie Cripps
HF: Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Chris Masten
F: Jonathan Giles, Josh J Kennedy, Josh Hill
Fol: Scott Lycett, Andrew Gaff, Luke Shuey
Int: Mitch Brown, Dom Sheed, Sam Butler, Mark Hutchings
Emg: Jack Redden, Liam Duggan, Jackson NelsonWestern Bulldogs
In: Easton Wood, Jake Stringer, Jordan Roughead, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore
Out: Koby Stevens (Omitted), Fletcher Roberts (Omitted), Bailey Williams (Omitted), Nathan Hrovat (Omitted), Will Minson (Omitted)B: Shane Biggs, Joel Hamling, Matthew Boyd
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken
HF: Lin Jong, Zaine Cordy, Jake Stringer
F: Tory Dickson, Tom Boyd, Caleb Daniel
Fol: Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Josh Dunkley
Int: Matthew Suckling, Jack Macrae, Clay Smith, Tom Liberatore
Emg: Tom Campbell, Toby McLean, Fletcher Roberts
Key players
For West Coast it’s a bit of an odd one – Jonathan Giles. While he is by no means West Coast’s best player – in fact, he has only played three games for the club after stints with GWS and Essendon – his performance last week as a replacement for Nic Naitanui was inspiring.
The absence of Naitanui was expected to be the defining issue of that match against the Adelaide Crows, the Achilles’ heel of the West Coast team that would see them fall short of victory. Instead, Giles lifted, besting a far more highly rated opponent in Sam Jacobs, and the Eagles won.
The Bulldogs don’t really have a gun ruckman in opposition so it presents a great opportunity for Giles to have another big performance. If he can continue the same vein of form that he did in Round 23, it’ll go a long way to a West Coast win.
For the Bulldogs the key player has to be Marcus Bontempelli. Coming off his first All-Australian selection and likely headed towards his first best-and-fairest win in the off-season, his form in his third year has been outstanding.
I have said since his first year in the league that I reckon he will someday be the best player in the game and I stand by it, but a key part of being one of the very best is that ability to stand up in September.
In last year’s elimination final he had a solid performance but had two missed shots on goal that he would have rued given the close finish to the match. You can be sure that he, like the rest of the Bulldogs team, will be desperate to get the win that eluded them last year.
The home ground advantage
Few teams get as big a boost from playing at home as the West Coast Eagles and Perth is a part of the world where the Bulldogs have really struggled to be competitive in recent years.
The last six matches between these two sides have been won by the team playing in their home state, and the Bulldogs haven’t beaten the Eagles in Perth in six years.
The Bulldogs have also never managed to win a final when playing outside of Victoria. For all the complaints made about the pre-finals bye this week, it will save them from making two trips to Perth in as many weeks.
Simply put – the historical data suggests that this match being played at in the Eagles’ nest puts them in the box seat for a win.
Is this curtains for Matthew Boyd?
Should the Bulldogs lose this one, it will potentially be the last AFL game for one of their most loved sons, Matthew Boyd.
Recently named All-Australian for the third time, the 34-year-old former captain is yet to sign a contract with the club beyond 2016.
There’s been no clear indication yet as to which party is dragging their feet – is Boyd weighing up retirement, or are the Bulldogs considering moving him on?
Uncertain is the best way to describe the situation. And we may be uncertain, when the match ends, as to whether or not Boyd has played his last AFL game.
So who’s going to win?
While the Bulldogs aren’t the kind of team I’m comfortable writing off, you’d have to think that the odds are heavily stacked in favour of the Eagles in this match.
The fact that West Coast has the home ground advantage combined with their hot form as opposed to the Bulldogs’ injury concerns and consecutive trips to Perth makes this an uphill battle for the visitors.
If the Bulldogs can match the Eagles for intensity and starve them of the ball while using it well themselves then they’re in with a shot.
However that seems like it will be too much to ask of the team at this stage and if they lose morale early this one could end in a rout.
Prediction: West Coast Eagles to win by 36 points.
When: 6:10pm local time, 8:10pm AEST
Where: Domain Stadium, Perth
TV: Channel Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: West Coast Eagles $1.21, Western Bulldogs $4.50
Head-to-head: West Coast Eagles 31, Western Bulldogs 17, Draw 1
In finals: West Coast Eagles 2, Western Bulldogs 1
Last five: West Coast Eagles 2, Western Bulldogs 3
You know your maths
Guest
Dean n. Is a human calculator...
I hate pies
Guest
It is a national league, but deep down we all know it's still the VFL with a few ring-ins. No doubt the AFL couldn't give a rats about country Vic - they don't care about any of their traditional supporter bases. Actually, it looks like they do their best to put them offside in their clamour for new markets.
I hate pies
Guest
I agree Brian. If they win tonight there's every chance they'll play Hawthorn next week (big chance there) and GWS the week after (kids are susceptible), and will make the Granny where anything's possible.
Nathan
Guest
Have you ever watch a Hawthorne game? West Coast , Freo, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Brisbane,Gold Coast , Sydney and GWS are all disadvantaged by the fixtures in favour of the Vic clubs. Especially WC and Freo based on distance and 6 day breaks. West Coast plays a brand of football that seems to get many free kicks, as does Hawthorne. Josh Kennedy is still owed about 50 getting scragged each week in a marking contest where as Buddy gets them if someone breaks wind in his direction. Maybe that should be investigated too.
bryan
Guest
I dont know if id go that far on Bontempelli,Great player ,yes! I think your not looking at your best midfielder; Boyd is going to be a fantastic midfielder if they resist the urge to try and turn him into a key forward.He thinks so quickly with ball in hand.he is not far off holding some of those big grabs he goes for and hes not afraid.I think the Bullies will go close tonight.They went to Geelong a few weeks ago and played their hearts out whilst injuring more players.Their best is as good or better than anyones and if they win tonight will make the GF.
Dave
Guest
will get back to you on that after the game!
Cat
Roar Guru
Less travel is easier, but having an actual home ground advantage is advantageous too. They are not mutually exclusive. The Melbourne teams travel so little that when they do it is a bigger disadvantage to those teams that do it so often it is second nature.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Thanks Matty. Now that you mention it, I have this recall that you may have expressed those views before. Have a look at IHP's comment below for an insight into your contemporaries.......as if you needed any instruction on that point, right? If there is one point I'm NOT focussed on for the sake of equalisation it is an MCG GF. If there is one day a GF elsewhere, that will be decided for some very specific and constructive reasons. Meantime, MCG it is and the non Vic teams just have to make it happen. What surprises me about the 4 or 5 perennially weak Melb clubs is their lack of strategic intent and innovation. The AFL comp is not the VFL with lipstick, Forget the past and make success happen or please leave the comp. EG: Richmond and NM. Both have had opportunities and incentives to put the past behind them and make strides to lock in national comp advantages. Both retreated on the strength of local legacy being shoved down their throats. The people that runs these clubs are smart, just don't have the courage or conviction needed. A suggestion - if someone in popwer at Richmond had any guts they would be on the phone to Brisbane or GCS to talk merger/relocation NOW. They would have to be prepared to leave Melbourne and run a VFL team, one tied to their AFL team in Queensland. There is no point arguing the idea the other way around. There is no way on this earth the AFL will retreat from QLD and scuttle back to Victoria, no mater what. Ditto NSW.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Always the rationalisation to make excuses. The fact is to play your first 7, 8, 9 games a bus ride from home is easier than having to travel, air miles, time zones, unfamiliar environment every second week. And then do it all over again after the mid season bye. Unfair advantage.
Republican
Guest
...thought it was a national league. There does remain a strong Melbourne centric culture within the AFL, more than a Vic centric one in my opinion because country Vic is not being supported as much as it could be either truth be told. The AFLs interpretation of 'national' conflicts with many disenfranchised footy communities i.e. ours. While GWS, GC, Brisbane and Sydney are integral in the context of national, they do not hold a cultural affinity, historically speaking for the code, whereas those that do are expedient to the empire building of the perfidious AFL. Go the Doggies because like the Saints, their devoted only have one flag to show for the long suffering years.
I hate pies
Guest
Non-Victorian by chance are you Michael? Just remember, the AFL will always be our league, and your will always have joined our league.
I hate pies
Guest
They play that many games there because it's more than one team's home ground. Their home ground advantage is minimal to none when playing other Melbourne teams. They don't travel as much, but the trade-off is that the non-Victorians have a huge home ground advantage.
rusty
Roar Rookie
If this is close at three qtr time look for the umpires to bring it home for west coast. They just don't seem to be able to resist that eagles home crowd.
mattyb
Guest
Michael,I for one have spoken out many times regarding the Victorian centric nature of the competition. I have spoken many times about the ridiculous home Victorian GF under any circumstances and believe the future of our game rests in it becoming truelly national. I don't think attacking the smaller Victorian clubs is the best strategy. I think the national clubs need to go with their strengths and bandy together and then get the support of the smaller Victorian clubs like WB,NM and St Kilda. The clubs that we need to go after are the old,insignificant AFL Vic clubs like Richmond,Carlton and Melbourne. With greater strength we need to get the strong AFL VFL clubs Hawthorn and Geelong on board and leave Collingwood and Essendon to make the call if they want to support the insignificant old clubs and that is a better way to change the status quo. In the coming weeks with the Swans,GWS,Eagles and Adelaide all participating in the finals talk will again start nearing the GF about the Victorian centric rule that the GF must be played in Victoria under any circumstances and I look forward to you contributing to this conversation..
michael RVC
Roar Pro
1990's was a transition era. NM won those 2 with the old VFL/Combined side competition player sourcing. That will not hold true in this century.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Matty, You are of course entitled to see things the way you want. I have no problem with a team follower having a rosy view of their team's chances, I just think that the WB syrup is way to thick - ie unrealistic. Bont's? a really good player who could go to another level and be as good as say, Adam Goodes. Dogs have been pretty soft in the last 4 to 6 weeks. Understandable, maybe, but in the cold light of day, no where near as strong as 4 or more other teams facing the same challenges. WB have proven nothing at this stage. I can see improvement, but that is true of 3 or 4 teams around you.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Glenn, the status quo is changing, it's inevitable that Vicwill have 6 teams in the AFL comp. It's back to the VFL with the rest. Go Swans.
mattyb
Guest
Umm,but,North have already won two Premierships in the AFL era which is ,umm,the same number the Swans have won
Swannies
Guest
Spot on RVC. North and Doggies will never win the flag and are a team of 'slightly above average'. Occasionally they may put it all together for brief periods and string along their supporters into the misguided belief they can be "contenders". They might be lucky to get to the PF as North did last year, but that only occurs once every decade and they dine out on that hoping for another chance. North and Doggies are two battling clubs always pushing above their weight and will never hold up the cup again unless they make a bold move to relocate or merge.
Glenn
Guest
I think it's time for you to form your own competition. Nobody on here has any power or the inclination to change the status quo so it looks like you have to rethink your approach. Target the WA, SA and QLD teams and see if you can get a 6 team comp off the ground. GWS won't entertain the idea as the handouts from the AFL are too lucrative and the Swans are doing ok anyway. You should be able to get the ACT and Tassie in as they want their own teams anyway. Just some thoughts and you're welcome.