The Golden Rose has become one of the most exciting spring races on the calendar, and one which shapes the three-year-old season.
This year will be the eighth time it has been run as a Group 1, and of the previous seven winners, five of them were coming off a top-four finish in the Run To The Rose, and the other two won their lead-up race.
Winning form is always the best, with five last-start winners taking out the Golden Rose in that time. (Click to Tweet)
The market has identified four main chances, with the filly Omei Sword the current favourite.
Omei Sword displayed some talent as a two-year-old when running a close second in the Magic Night back in March, but returned a different class of filly in the Silver Shadow three weeks ago, putting in one of the most inspiring winning performances of the racing season so far.
Bred to be better over ground, there can be no doubt on her extending that brilliance to 1400m. From gate three she’ll be able to take a position behind the speed to give herself every chance.
Hong Kong’s dominant jockey in João Moreira takes the ride for Chris Waller.
Godolphin’s Astern and Divine Prophet from the Hawkes camp are seen to be the pick of the boys, coming off wins in the Run To The Rose and Up And Coming Stakes respectively.
Astern has won four of his five career starts, with the only miss coming when riding the speed from a wide gate in the Golden Slipper. His Run To The Rose win was full of merit carrying weight against his rivals under the conditions, and he presents as the consummate, talented professional.
El Divino led but weakened in that lead-up, the first time he tasted defeat, but he did dead-heat with Astern in the Kindergarten Stakes back in the autumn. He and stablemate Thronum are likely to set the early agenda, but Hugh Bowman on El Divino might be well advised to not fight for the lead and just take a sit.
Others from the Run to the Rose are Impending, Nikitas, Good Standing and Mediterranean.
Impending will have admirers on a drying track, but it would be hard to back him over his stablemate Astern.
Mediterranean doesn’t have much to recommend him apart from being from the Snowden yard, Nikitas hasn’t shown enough to win this sort of race, and Good Standing looks a cut below Group 1 level at this stage of his career.
Divine Prophet was stunning in his victory first up, jumping out of the ground late. He can put together the closing fractions, as evidenced both there and in the autumn when breaking his maiden against some smart types and following it up with a close third coming from last in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes.
Tommy Berry will drag him back from Barrier 10, and he’ll be smoking the pipe in the early stages, but no horse will be finishing harder.
Derryn was the horse that got nailed by Divine Prophet late in the Up and Coming Stakes, after seeming to draw away with Thronum to fight a two-horse war down the straight. Expect a quieter ride on him this time, and he can find his way into the money at a price.
Yankee Rose brings both star power and x-factor to the starting line-up, with plenty of intrigue surrounding her given she is first-up off an indifferent lead-up.
Her autumn campaign consisted of two starts – a first-up second in the Golden Slipper trying to pull off the impossible, followed by a put-down-your-glasses victory in the Group 1 Sires Produce.
She had been set for this first-up effort before running into a minor problem in her preparation a few weeks back, and had been trialling unimpressively. She had a jump-out with blinkers on last Sunday, finally impressing trainer David Vandyke and confirming her place in the field.
She’ll likely be making her run with Divine Prophet from back in the field, and it will be a sight to behold watching these two special talents trying to find the line first.
O’Reilly Cyrus, Chamalu, and (the terribly named) Oink are making up the numbers, but their owners gets to have a major Group 1 runner, and not everyone gets to claim that. The Oink owner will be rolling in it should they get up.
There looks to be an even tempo at minimum in this race and if every horse gets their chance we’ll be in for one of the races of the year. This feels like a Golden Rose we will look back on in time as one of the great editions.
Selections
1. Divine Prophet 2. Yankee Rose 3. Omei Sword 4. Astern
Cameron Rose
Expert
Prized Icon's flop last week hasn't helped the Champagne form, certainly. Looking forward to how it all stacks up on Saturday!
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I have a real question mark on how strong that Champagne was, and what Divine Prophet did first up. Visually looked outstanding, but he didn't beat much, and IMO, Jaws Of Steel should have won the Champagne, and he hasn't done much since, nor has most of them subsequent.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Hey Razzar,well done with Merriest last week mate,hope you won a bucket load :)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Raz. Yeah, I expect Impending to be tickled at odds, and you'd be happy enough with 15's. I hope these all run the 1400m and they hit the respective Guineas trails.
Razzar
Guest
Nice preview Cam. Ive been taken by the litely raced Impending. In the 'Run' she was held up for 6 seconds. The 1400 will suit. Im sure she can be in the mix & Astern is quality. But got 15s for Impending, now $11 after draw. But that price looks rock bottom. A few other good chances, here. But out to 1400 could throw up a surprise. So confidence level here is quite low.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I agree with you Adam, but obviously 2yo's make different rates of progression to three. I think she's one of a few stars here. Divine Prophet was pretty special himself in the autumn, running third in the Champagne from last, beaten a length, second-up jumping from 1200m to 1600m in three weeks. I think we're in for a special race, and the form from it will dominate for 12-18 months.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All great observations Bondy, and I think we should see most of these head to Melbourne for Guineas instead of being saved for the Coolmore, which often happens these days. Hopefully we get a strong Guineas to follow this super Rose. I'm banking on a strong tempo for Divine Prophet, but that will also suit his dangers too!
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I've been saying for months that Yankee Rose is a star and one of only a handful of potential threats to Winx in the Cox Plate. For the most part, she has been the forgotten horse, but people are realising that she spanked most of these in the Autumn. My opinion is that if she runs to her best, she has these covered
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Tristo. I think the first three I've picked there are or could be superstars, and I guess I'm going with the colt ahead of the fillies based on history. And then you have Astern who has never done much wrong either! Derryn looks really smart too, El Divino is clearly untapped. I think it's a crack field. Yeah, the conversation around Yankee Rose has been remarkable, and not something you see all that often. It doesn't usually lead to a great run, but I'll put my faith in the trainer. First-up over 1400m as a filly. It would be some feat to pull it off.
Bondy
Guest
The quire runner for mine is Yankee Rose with Van Dyke trying to win the slipper first up and nearly doing so suggests she'll be very forward for the Golden Rose, but I like Astern he's done nothing wrong and only defeated once in the Slipper . Just a tip when you increase the prise money and status of a race the tempo to those races are genuinely solid affairs and Divine Prophet may dive over the top of them . The Golden Rose running will also shape Caulfield Guineas markets, also I'd be very surprised if the Caulfield Guineas winner is not running around in the Golden Rose on Saturday ...
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
It's worth pointing out that fillies have a terrible record in the race, with only Forensics winning since it was moved to 1400m and that year the race was run in the Autumn due to EI. Astern looks the one to beat for mine.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Nice preview Cam. Interesting you have Omei Sword to get rolled. I really, really liked Yankee Rose last year in the Slipper and she was a moral the next week. It's always a question of how two-year olds shape up as three-year olds - I've written before about Golden Slipper winners not winning another race. Capitalist duly kept that going a little longer with the San Domenico fourth. Of course too much is expected of Slipper winners - if we had unbeatable champions going around every season we wouldn't celebrate the real champions all that often. I'm going off track, but the concerns from trainers around trial form and track work and all around Yankee Rose are curious. It's impossible to know what will happen on raceday. She's perked up, apparently. She was down, apparently. We'll only find out on race day, and that's what makes a $5 ticket on her thrilling!