Why Collingwood should want Travis Cloke to stay

It has been interesting hearing the discussion surrounding Travis Cloke the past couple of weeks. It had the feeling that Cloke had one foot out the door, nominating Western Bulldogs as his preferred destination last week.

However, Nathan Buckley potentially threw a spanner in the works stating this week that Collingwood could hold him to his contract if it is in the club’s best interests.

Although, this was considered by Craig Hutchinson as Collingwood ‘posturing’ and that a trade would be made, I know that I was in the minority to be quietly happy, hoping that the Pies would keep Cloke for 2017.

There are numerous reasons behind this:

1) Nathan Buckley himself has stated that finals are the minimum requirement for keeping his job.
2) The unlikelihood that Collingwood would be able to find a trade that is in Collingwood’s best interests.
3) That Cloke has been ultra-consistent (perhaps not with goal kicking) during the past seven years and there is potential for him to return 30-40 goals next season.

Why will keeping Cloke increase our chances of making finals?

Basically, Collingwood has a dearth of key position players to take the spot. Darcy Moore looks like a player who could kick 35-40 next year. However, he has only played 26 games and has shown to be injury prone.

The next options include Jesse White, Mason Cox, Jarrod Witts and Corey Gault.

Collingwood is proven to be a better outfit with Ben Reid at centre half back, so is not in consideration. Jesse White potentially played his best season for Collingwood playing a similar role to premiership hero Leigh Brown where he was the utility-tall, playing in the ruck, midfield, and defence as well as up forward.

Mason Cox’s form has been remarkable, especially from where he has come from. However, he appears to suffer a regular case of the Majak Daws (well his AFL career until now). By this I mean Cox can have moments where he can be spectacular but does go missing for long periods in games, probably due to a lack of game sense.

The optimist in me expects improvement but I doubt he will be the regular second tall forward in a team that pushes for finals.

Jarrod Witts has proven that he and Brodie Grundy cannot work together in the same team, as neither is particularly adept as a key forward, while Corey Gault’s season was unfortunately wrecked from a concussion; there are question marks on whether he will remain on the list, let alone hold down a key position spot next year.

With Cloke in the team we will have a forward line where four players have the capability of kicking 30-35 goals in a season.

Jamie Elliott if he recovers from his back, Alex Fasolo who was promising but injured regularly in 2016, Darcy Moore and Cloke. Collingwood has the makings of a potent forward line, increasing our chance of making finals.

Cloke will never go back to his All Australian form. However, Cloke could be expected to return 30-35 goals and return to his 2014-15 form (he kicked 39 and 34 over those two years) in 2017. He has averaged 42 goals per season since 2010 so this is not a stretch.

This output combined with Fasolo, Elliott and Moore staying fit and healthy provides the Collingwood forward line with unpredictability and numerous avenues to goal, which will be lessened if he is traded.

People may believe the game has past him but I believe he was supremely down on confidence, possibly due to a combination of the nude photo scandal, the illicit drug scandal and the Pies’ woeful start to 2016.

If Cloke finds his confidence like he did in the infamous glove game against GWS I think it is likely he can produce 30-35 goals in 2017, something only Darcy Moore at Collingwood can realistically produce.

People may say that Cloke already has one foot out the door and why would you keep a player that wants to leave? I think Cloke’s issue is a lack of love and game time, with Cloke citing the third time he was dropped this year hurt him particularly hard.

If Cloke returns to form, I doubt this would be an issue, as he bleeds black and white. A similar situation happened to Mitch Brown (Nathan Brown’s twin) when he wanted to be traded from West Coast in 2012, citing a lack of game time.

Last year, Mitch Brown said he was thankful the Eagles convinced him to stay. I reckon that Cloke’s situation would be similar, if he returns to form.

Why Collingwood will be unlikely to find a suitable trade?

What Collingwood deem his value to be versus his perceived market value are different things. In my opinion, Collingwood would want an early to middle second round pick for Cloke (probably something between picks 20-25, to make it worth their while. However, given Cloke’s age (he will turn 30 before the 2017 season starts) and woeful 2016 form it is unlikely that the Pies will be offered that, with a late second round, early third rounder more accurate.

Of the teams that are reportedly in the mix, North Melbourne, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, only the Western Bulldogs seem like they will have the picks and need (given the injury to Jack Redpath) to get the job done, with Richmond unlikely to give up a second round pick given pick six is likely to go in a trade for Dion Prestia.

I still do not see how North would make a pitch to Cloke, given they have got rid of beloved son Drew Petrie for being too old.

However, the Western Bulldogs situation would be complicated by Lin Jong, which, if he decides to go to Collingwood, would diminish the compensation the Pies got for Cloke, potentially making the trade untenable.

However, I question whether Lin Jong is an appropriate fit for the Pies, given that he is an in-and-under contested possession type and that is one of Collingwood’s strengths (the Pies where sixth in the AFL for contested possession differential in 2016).

Perhaps, he could put pressure on Levi Greenwood for a spot; however, I think Josh Thomas will already be doing that once he comes back from his drugs ban. A potential scenario would be that the Western Bulldogs offer Jong and there second round pick for Cloke and perhaps a third or fourth round pick.

However, although this would be a fair trade I would not consider this value, as we would be getting a player that already fits into Collingwood’s strengths (contested possession) and trading a player in one of our weakest areas (kicking a winning score).

The only other teams in need for a tall forward with the picks available are Fremantle and Brisbane. I would be surprised if these teams do not make a pitch, even if Fremantle secures Cam McCarthy.

Brisbane wouldn’t mind an experienced hand to help mentor there young key forwards, like Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood. Although given there seasons are over and they are yet to declare interest, it seems unlikely. Cloke has stated he would prefer to stay in Melbourne (but did not rule out an interstate move), which may be why they are hesitant.

To strengthen my case for Cloke to stay, here’s a comparison between him and Taylor Walker.

It is interesting to see that Cloke and Taylor Walker have very similar numbers since 2010. There are a couple of differing factors Walker is three years younger than Cloke and also had a knee reconstruction during this time. However, Walker is considered one of the premier forwards of the competition.

In comparison to Walker, Cloke has been found to be more durable, playing more than four more games a season over this time. Since 2010, Cloke has averaged per game 13.9 disposals, 7.2 marks, 2.2 goals and 1.7 behinds.

Walker has averaged 13.5 disposals, 6 marks, 2.4 goals and 1.6 behinds per game. Before Pie and Croweaters go into shock hearing that Cloke and Taylor Walker average almost the exact same behinds per game, the other figures illustrate that although Cloke had a slump this year, he has been preforming at a high level consistently since 2010.

This adds further evidence to why I consider Cloke will return to form next year and will be a key part in the pies push to save Buckley’s job in 2017.