The Wallabies do not have the kicking game to win based on kicking penalty goals the way that England, South Africa or Argentina can.
Therefore, we need to design a backline capable of vastly outscoring our opponents.
In the six matches since the World Cup final last year the Wallabies have scored an average of 2.0 tries per match. This has been good enough to win only one of six matches.
Obviously, our backline is not creating enough try-scoring opportunities, and I believe the reason for this comes down to baffling selections.
The team we fielded against the Springboks on Saturday night featured a centre on the wing (Reece Hodge); a fullback on the other wing (Dane Haylett-Petty); a number 10 at 12 (Bernard Foley) and; our most devastating attacking player, who is best suited to the wing and who plays at 13 at Super Rugby level playing at 15 (Israel Folau).
No wonder our attack has been dysfunctional.
Luckily, there seems an easy way to fix this, and that is by:
1. Selecting players based on form;
2. Selecting the young up and comers over the older heads, and;
3. Selecting players in the correct position.
Here’s the backline we should select going forward.
Centres
We need a strong centre pairing capable of making tackles, breaking tackles, running hard and distributing the balls out to the wings.
Reece Hodge has been a revelation since playing his first Test against New Zealand in the Bledisloe. He has a big physical presence, good defence, a monster boot, good distribution skills and can run hard and beat defenders, as proven by his multitude of tries for the Melbourne Rebels (9, I believe).
Aside from Folau, Samu Kerevi is currently our most dynamic attacking threat. Aside from his brain snap in carrying the ball with his right arm against South Africa he had a splendid game, beat plenty of tacklers and was always physically imposing.
Additionally, they are both 22 years old, so should do nothing but improve in the coming years, and will almost certainly be strong, established forces in the Wallabies team by the next World Cup.
Because of his superior kicking, defending and distribution I suggest Hodge at 12. This leaves Kerevi at 13, where he will also be put into more space, allowing him to make more attacking runs.
Play Two Specialist Wingers
It is almost unbelievable that the Wallabies selectors do not seem to rate the importance of having two specialist wingers, given that wingers score the majority of the tries.
Sure, some tries, such as Adam Coleman’s on the weekend can be scored by anyone on the wing, but not a majority of them.
First, wingers need the ability to beat tacklers that most other players would not be able to beat – such as when Julian Savea scored in Bledisloe two despite a tackle by Kerevi that would have forced most other players into touch.
Secondly, they need to have some form of magic that allows them to create scoring opportunities seemingly out of nowhere: such as Drew Mitchell’s memorable effort to set up Adam Ashley-Cooper in the World Cup semifinal, or Sefanaia Naivalu’s try against the Blues.
New Zealand does not try to ‘promote’ Julian Savea or Nehe Milner-Skudder off the wing onto another position, instead realising that they perform a vitally important role that a lesser player could not.
One of our two wingers should be Sefanaia Naivalu when he becomes eligible, which is sometime this September, or Drew Mitchell until then. The other should undoubtedly be our main attacking weapon: Israel Folau.
Folau’s intercept and step is something beautiful to behold, and when he is put into space he can beat tackles and create tries in a way that is rivalled only by Julian Savea. He is also unbeatable under the high ball, meaning chip kicks from Cooper or Hodge could definitely create tryscoring opportunities.
Unfortunately, he is wasted at fullback, where he is swarmed by defenders and kept out of the game. He has only scored five tries in his last 22 matches, compared to 15 tries in his first 21.
Fullback
We need a fullback solid under the high-ball, enough speed to be dangerous and with a huge clearance kick. Last weekend Haylett-Petty finally showed some of his Super Rugby form at the international level. It seems likely that his poor international showings are the result of being played out of position, rather like Folau.
Shifting Haylett-Petty to fullback means we have strong clearance options and frees up Folau (who cannot kick) to move onto the wing.
This leaves us with a team of:
9. Genia
10. Cooper
11. Naivalu
12. Hodge
13. Kerevi
14. Folau
15. Haylett-Petty
This teams seems far more likely to create opportunities and score tries than the one currently fielded, with Foley disrupting our attack by fighting with Quade Cooper for first receiver, with non-specialist wingers and with our attacking threat hidden at fullback, especially with the more dynamic Cooper now playing at 10.
What do you Roarers think, have I got it right or wrong? Please let me know in the comments.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
We also rely far more on our backs to score tries than New Zealand does, because they are so much more efficient at breaking down defences and mixing the forward and backlines when they pass it through the hands in a way we are not capable of doing. We rely far more on structured play than they do.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Haha, no, I do not think that is why we aren't beating the All Blacks consistently. And neither do I believe that picking two specialist wingers will magically make us the best team in the world. New Zealand have an all-round skill-set far surpassing our own—their forwards seem to be able to catch and pass as well as our backs. They gel far better as a team and are much, much more physical. That being said, it makes it that much harder to be competitive against them (or even to score tries against the likes of England or South Africa) when we have chaotic backline incapable of scoring tries regularly because we pick players out of position. We need to take it step by step, and step 1, in my mind, is picking players in their correct position, so that they can fully utilise their skills, learn the position properly, develop new skills, and learn to play with the rest of the team.
Timbo (L)
Guest
I haven't seen Folau kick a single serviceable full back style kick. (This may be my fault for not watching enough Tah's Games) Other than the High Ball, I haven't seen much of the kicking finesse required by a Full Back. 11 or 13 make more sense, 14 is a different debate. Kicking dynamics - The old school Fullback Dual requires the kicker to run up field to put his players on side. This leaves the backfield exposed. The normal dynamic is a 14 or 12 steps back to cover the return kick and has the skills to return fire. Dagg and Smith have mastered this combo. Folau doesn't appear to be suited to either of those roles. If you watch the game footage, we see DHP kicking from the 15 position and Hodge or Foley stepping back to cover the next round of kicking. They are already doing the Job, why not acknowledge it by giving them the right number on their Jersey. Why put Folau at 15 to take advantage of his aerobatic skills, and shuffling the rest of the team around him to perform the other Fullback Duties. Why not put everyone in conventional positions and swap Folau in for the shallow High ball, running into traffic where he is does his finest work. In short, he is not really a 14, and probably not fast enough to be an 11. Leaving 13 as the optimal position (Tah's have it right!). Is he better than Kerevi or Kuridrani for that position? My vote is for Kerevi.. Hodge 14, Kerevi 12, Folau 13 Hodge 12, Kerevi 13, Folau 14 or more inconveniently Hodge 12, Kerevi 13, Morahan 14
Hoy
Roar Guru
That must be why Australian wingers are so lethal in attack and defen... oh wait...
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
So in addition to the lack of attacking options our current wingers provide, there are the defensive issues as well. DHP has no idea how to defend on the wing, and so is being made to look like a much worse player than he really is, as his positioning is constantly catching him out. There is the final issue that Folau does not actually possess the right skillset for a fullback. He his excellent under the high ball and can counterattack well, but his positioning in defence is really questionable and, more importantly, his kicking is terrible. When opposing teams kick it deep to him they know he will run it straight back 9 out of 10, because he has no kicking option to turn to. This is something that DHP possesses, an excellent kick. He is also good under the high ball, and knows how to defend at 15. On the other hand, Folau can defend better on the wing and has brutal speed and and an attacking game. I just see no logic whatsoever to playing a centre (Hodge) and fullback (DHP) on the wings in order to accommodate playing a winger/centre at fullback (Folau) and a 10 at 12 (Foley). It is simply farcical.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Ah, okay, I wasn't aware of that, point taken. Regardless, the difference is that he has speed and a brilliant step meaning that he is able to continually beat defenders and score tries on the wing. Can we say that either Hodge (who is pretty quick and imposing, but nowhere near as fast as other international wingers, and doesn't have the tackle breaking skills of a Savea) or DHP (who is comparatively quite slow) have these abilities? I don't think so. How many tries have our wingers scored in the Rugby Championship?
Highlander
Guest
I remember now - That's second match was not an RC game last year - so back to 0-9
Highlander
Guest
I stand corrected, thanks (should have remembered that, horrible tjp crosskick) 1 in the last 9 then still for a guy with his weapons, would still content, not good enough
MA
Guest
The thing that really annoys me about Foley at 12 is it is preventing a true 12 earning caps. There are guys there who have earned the right to play 12 for the Wallabies. Foley had his chance at playing his preferred position, 10, but showed he is not good enough and a better 10 was brought in. Both Hodge and Kerevi have earned the right to try to make that spot there own. However Foley, who has never played 12 and has proven he is not good enough to play his own specialist position is stealing that opportunity. On another point, I am not a fan of Kuridrani however he has been forced to play outside Foley his whole Wallaby career. How much has this affected his success in attack? What would his highlights reel look like had he had a quality 10 like Cooper inside him all of those matches?
peeeko
Guest
i think isolating backs as the only players that score is wrong. the AB have a whole team approach where the forwards combine with the backs and pass and offload rather than hitting it up and going to ground providing no threat at all. Do you also think we are not beating them because our wingers dont finish well enough?
donde es Fuss
Guest
you put too much stress on specialist wingers. its a very east position to play. Wingers are just people that hang out with footballers
donde es Fuss
Guest
yes, because players cant handle playing more than 1 position.
MelR
Guest
Btw Milne Shudder is a utility back and plays fullback too....see my point?there are others.My point is with a fullback/wing you get a player with great field vision,defence, a great boot and counter attacking abilities,thus my earlier statement.I really hope the Hodge-Folau-DHP back 3 combo developes over time.Stick with it Cheiks ;)
Rhys
Guest
Pretty sure if you look into it Milner-Skudder is a specialist Fullback who gets switched to the wing. Same with Smith, Dagg, Piutau, Cory Jane etc. So yeah, they do do it all the time, just better at it than the Wallabies
Toowoomba
Guest
And now Simmons is back so whatever he did to get kicked out of the squad has been remedied. But Mumm remains? I thought he was brought on to call the lineout, which he didn't do. He's certainly no threat at the breakdown. Chieka's weird selections give us no confidence at all.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Yep that was due to a misdirected kick by the replacement half back which gave Folau an uninterrupted run to the line. One point though, subjective I know, but I have to agree with Highlander in that Folau is best suited to be on the wing. Sorry but positional play is not good enough for fullback and neither is his exits through kicking. Crottys first try for the AB's in Sydney was a clear case in point... where was the fullback? If Cheika did happen to switch him to 13, I think he will get more touches but with less space, his impact will suffer. Fekitoa had his measure in S18. The other point is that in spite of his league background, I'm not convinced he is a great defender and outside centre is a hot position for organising defence away from the cluttered areas.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Sorry to draw your attention to another error Highlander, but I distinctly remember Izzy Folau scoring a try from about 65m out against the AB in last years Bled Cup at Eden Park. I know it was a slaughter, but he was the only WB to make any decent forward ground in the match. That means 1 try in the last 3 matches, still not good but I look at the half full side and say that's 50% of all the WB tries against AB in last 3 matches. :)
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Imagine if Tomane hadn't gotten injured and was staying in Aus :(. He was so lethal until he got injured that I would have rated him well above Folau on the wing if he could have continued his form. Ah well, will never know now.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
The All Blacks played Milner-Skudder and Savea (two specialist wingers) at the World Cup. Before Naholo got injured they were playing him. The only reason that Smith started on the wing vs Wales and in Bledisloe 1 is because Savea was out of form. Dagg would not be starting on the wing now were if Milner-Skudder or Naholo were fit, now that Savea can play again. What do you mean the ABs do that all of the time? Sorry, I just can't agree with that statement.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Incidentally, what has Fardy done to make Cheika lose faith in him? I thought he was basically our most impressive forward in Bledisloe 2 until he was taken off for.... Dean Mumm? To me, Mumm is like Foley, I have no idea what he is doing in the team. I agree, I don't think that there is space for Foley on the bench, I would prefer someone young like Debreczeni in order to build for the future. I also agree with the comments re. how differently Cooper would be treated if he threw two passes that were intercepted (or had his kicks constantly charged down as Foleyy does) or miss the number of tackles Foley does. I used to be very critical of Cooper, but he has matured a lot as both a player and a person, and I am happy that we are welcoming him back into the fold, even though there is a segment of the Australian public that continues to hate him.