Melbourne Cup 2016: The likely international contingent

Overseas trainers are starting to declare their horses for Australia’s biggest races, including the biggest of them all, the 2016 Melbourne Cup.

This year looks like we’ll see a full-house in quarantine at Werribee International Horse Centre – which holds 24 horses – as two flights from Europe bring loads of internationals.

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The first lot have just started the process going into quarantine in the UK. They’re due to arrive in Melbourne on October 1.

A second plane is due two weeks later, with those horses unlikely to take the track before the Cup.

Here’s who to look out for.

(Note all weights listed here will rise 0.5kgs if the horses Order Of St George and Protectionist, allocated as top-weight, don’t line-up, as is expected. The minimum top-weight for the Cup must be 57kgs.)

Wicklow Brave
The Irish St Leger winner is the current equal favourite for the race, weighted with 55kgs.

He beat the Lloyd Williams-owned Order Of St George, the previous favourite for the Cup, which surprised even trainer Willie Mullins.

Order Of St George now looks unlikely to make it across, and will instead attempt to win an Arc.

Cup winner and German horse Protectionist, trained by Andreas Wohler, shares the top weight of 58kg with Order Of St George, but is also looking unlikely after an injury setback.

Big Orange
Big Orange was fifth in last year’s Melbourne Cup carrying 55.5kgs. He’s going better than ever, having won the Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes over 2400m followed by the Goodward Cup over 3219m.

He needs a firm track and will carry 56kgs. He’ll be hoping to do the difficult task of bettering his last Cup – but is the other favourite in the race at this stage.

Erupt
French stallion and a very big danger. Won the Group 1 Prix de Paris over 2400m to qualify here and was sixth in the Japan Cup. Hasn’t won in 2016 and mixed his form. Has been given 56kgs which looks weighty.

Racing Victoria have since updated Erupt is unlikely to come to Australia for the Spring:

Grey Lion
The Cumanis keep trying! Andreas Fabre trained this French horse, before a purchase by well-known syndicate OTI Racing. He’s now trained by Matt Cumani – Francesca’s brother – and finds himself 52nd in the order of entry with a third in a French Group 3.

He disappointed in the Prix Kergorlay with some suggestion he might not have stayed the trip. A run in the Geelong Cup looks certain – he’ll run in the Melbourne Cup if he can win that, but may be a 2000-2400m horse based on breeding.

Bondi Beach
Another Lloyd Williams overseas purchase. Given 55kgs for the Cup, Williams seemed to think handicapper Greg Carpenter was fair with his assessment. 17th in the order of entry and will start.

Heartbreak City
Irish trainer Tony Martin’s horse was the impressive winner of the Ebor at York over 2800m. Given 53.5kgs, he’s currently 34th in the order of entry. Must be some chance if he comes over.

Godolphin horses: Scottish, Francis of Assissi, Oceanographer, Qewy, Second Wave
Scottish is the biggest name stayer from Godolphin’s UK trainer Charlie Appleby. He’s been given 54.5kgs, and is just one of five Godolphin-owned stayers trained in the UK that are nominated for the Cup.

The other four that are likely to come across are Francis Of Assissi, Qewy, Oceanographer, and Second Wave,

There’s not much to say about those four at this stage – they’re yet to pass the ballot of entry.

Godolphin want this one in their trophy cabinet which holds silverware of pretty much every other global race.

Exosphere
Not the boom colt that hit a wall following his Golden Rose win last year, but the British stayer now owned by Australian connections.

He’ll be trained by Lee and Anthony Freedman, joining the now localised German horse Our Ivanhowe from that stable. He’ll carry 55kg and will make the field.

He won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes over 2400m and is lightly raced. He wasn’t showing the best of form leading into this.

We’ll save the arguments around horse names for another time.

Red Cardinal
German trainer Wohler is sending two horses to Australia, with Red Cardinal set for the Melbourne Cup.

He’s a lightly raced four-year-old, with just six starts for three wins and three placings, including a third in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. He’s been given just 50kgs, and has never raced beyond 2800m.

Depending on the attrition rate, he’s likely to need a penalty to get into the field – via the Geelong Cup or the Moonee Valley Cup.

Wohler also has Articus lined up for the Caulfield Cup, a Group 2 winner over 2100m

Both horses are owned by Australian Bloodstock, who also own Protectionist.

Aidan O’Brien’s team: Idaho, Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter

Aidan O’Brien is yet to announce his hand, but he is expected to send a handful of chances.

Idaho was set to be a leading chance for Aidan O’Brien, until he lost his rider in the St Leger which put his preparation back.

He’s a fine staying prospect should he make it here, having won the Great Voltiguer and placed in both the Irish and English Derbies. May prefer the Caulfield Cup, if he comes.

Housesofparliament, the Aidan O’Brien northern hemisphere three-year-old, was last-start third in the English St Leger and will be hoping to make the field. He won the Group 3 Trophy Stakes over 2600m to be balloted into the race and given 50kgs.

Sword Fighter is another Aidan O’Brien runner who also took part in the English St Leger and also carried 50kgs. He won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2800m.

Kinema
Kinema is an interesting runner. Owned by the ‘Ashes’ syndicate in Sydney, and with Chris Waller to train, this guy hasn’t yet passed the ballot into the Cup. However, he won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot in the lead-up.

He then was midfield or worse at York and Goodward behind wins by Heartbreak City and Big Orange respectively.

He needs to find his way in.

Japanesse Raider: Curren Mirotic
Likely to be the only Japanese raider in the Cup field. Given 55.5kgs, he was second in the Group 1 Tenno Sho Stakes. He’s a rising eight-year old, but hasn’t won in three-years.

One of the better two-mile horses in Japan, this bloke will frighten a few.

Overall thoughts:
It’s not too early to start running through the form of these contenders, although knowing exactly who is coming, as well as if the topweights will start are still not quite known.

The committed internationals are a bit of a motley crew – certainly Wicklow Brave, Big Orange, Erupt and Curren Mirotic have class.

Idaho looks good but O’Brien is yet to commit to him coming. Red Cardinal can’t be forgotten. Neither can Bondi Beach, nor Heartbreak City – if he comes.

The rest need to prove themselves. History says you can’t win without a run in Australia before the Cup.

A victory in the remaining win-and-you’re-in races plus further ballot exemptions before the Melbourne Cup boil down to just four races: The Bart Cummings, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Lexus Stakes.

Horses that win or place get exemptions, finish in the top eight in the Caulfield Cup to pass the first ballot.

The winner of the Geelong Cup and Moonee Valley Cup will also see penalties allocated, which boosts positions in the order of entry for horses on the fringe of entry.