The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Grand final

Good analysis Eddy. Interesting to see that this is the first time both teams have played all four previous finals. The Dogs are tenacious but Sydney are experienced campaigners and should win by 2 goals at least. Having said that, this is the year of upsets and all it takes is Sydney to be slightly off their best on the big day. Being a neutral supporter, I hope the Dogs win for the history of the game. If they win, the noise will not subside for years to come. If they lose, it will just be another Sydney flag and will be largely forgotten (except by Sydney supporters) by the time of the draft. It will be known as the day the Bulldogs nearly won the flag.

I don't think the history and stats will worry the Bulldogs, the point is that they are playing a new style of game that others will be forced to follow in the future. They can win this game but one would be unwise to take the odds on offer. They will need to keep scoreboard pressure on the Swans and if this goes well into the last quarter then anything can happen.

Since the 22-Round season was introduced in 1970, no team has won the Grand Final with such a huge percentage differential. The current differential is 35.8% (Sydney 151.2%, Bulldogs 115.4%). The greatest differential for a winning side is 29.9%, when Hawthorn (131.9%) defeated Geelong (161.8%). The Bulldog’s percentage of 115.4 is particularly low for a potential premier – the only premiers with that type of percentage have been North Melbourne twice (1975, 115.1%, and 1999, 115.7%), Hawthorn (1976, 114.2%), and Carlton (1970, 112.3%). Based on history, it could be a difficult day for the Bulldogs. For the teams that have had a combination of a low percentage, and a large percentage differential, most have resulted in thrashings: 2000 – Essendon (159%) v Melbourne (118%). Differential = 40%, lost by 60 points. 1988 – Hawthorn (142%) v Melbourne (102%). Differential = 40%, lost by 96 points. 2007 – Geelong (152%) v Port Adelaide (113%). Differential = 39%, lost by 119 points. Best results for teams with a low percentage and high differential: 1970 – Carlton (112%) v Collingwood (136%). Differential = 24%, won by 10 points. 1975 – North Melbourne (115%) v Hawthorn (137%). Differential = 22%, won by 55 points. This type of result hasn't occurred for 41 years, and in both of those cases, Carlton and North Melbourne had appeared in the previous Grand Final (in Carlton's case, the previous two Grand Finals). The Bulldogs have no recent Grand Final experience, as well as only having four recent finals (in 2015 and 2016). Experience matters, and this could count against them on the day, as well as the emotion of reaching the Grand Final for the first time in 55 years. Also, since the 1972 final five system was set up (which then became final six in 1991, and then final eight in 1994) there are only a few teams that have reached the Grand Final from low positions, after winning three consecutive elimination finals – four occasions, and three of them have been spanked: 1980 – Collingwood finished 5th. Lost to Richmond by 81 points. 1983 – Essendon finished 4th. Lost to Hawthorn by 83 points. 1988 – Melbourne finished 4th. Lost to Hawthorn by 96 points. 1997 – Adelaide finished 4th. Won against St Kilda by 31 points. By the way, this is the first Grand Final to be played between two teams that have played a game in each week of the finals. I hope it's a good match, and I hope the Bulldogs win. If they do, it will be one of the greatest premierships ever. They can look at small amounts of history to support them, looking at the Grand Finals of 1970, 1975 and 1997, where teams bucked such a massive trend – but that's only three out of 46. History has a knack of following form. For some strange reason, only two teams since 1970 have managed to win the Grand Final after being behind at three-quarter time (Essendon in 1984, Geelong in 2009). I think the percentage and low-ladder position might be a similar historical factor. History is against the Bulldogs, and it could get a little bit ugly. Let's hope not.

Hey Bobo, they're not playing GWS.

Sheek, I am sure the Bulldogs will not be content with just making the GF. They have a realistic chance of winning but as I have mentioned I expect a tight low scoring game in the first half with Sydney to pull away in the third quarter. A lot depends on how long the Bulldogs can maintain scoreboard pressure and that was the undoing of GWS last week. If the game is still close in the final quarter anything can happen and a win to the Dogs would be a fairy story come true.

Good point....they were beaten easily by GWS. Did Sydney perk up once Hawthorn was eliminated?

Terrible comment.....just awful

Sydney should win minor premiers +better scoring percentage 30+ per cent I they loose it would be a very embarrassing moment.Not about sentimental favourites.

And with all that advantage they were beaten still beaten by GWS.

I love hearing all this rubbish about the Bulldogs hunger and resilience during the Finals. Excuse me, but didn't the Swans show these very same attributes after the GWS game. Look how they came out against Adelaide and Geelong...if that's your argument as to why the Bulldogs will win, I'd be worried if I were a Bulldogs supporter. I don't think I've ever been more confident of Sydney winning on the weekend. Bigger bodies, more experienced in Grand Finals, too many brilliant players across the park. They score more and concede less. And there's a tremendous sense of collective will to not perform as badly as they did against Hawthorn in grand final of two years ago. Sydney in a canter. 6 goals plus.

The one big thing in the Bulldogs' favour is that sport is not played on paper, or the internet. It's necessary to say this because, without the benefit of foretelling, all the logic in the world suggests the Swans will win. They are the minor premiers, they are the better team & lest they be over-confident, the disaster of 2014 will be fresh in the minds of most players. They know how much that hurt & they won't be in a hurry to revisit that disaster. Instead, they'll be doing everything in their power to make this a smiley day for them. As for the Bulldogs, they appear to have made the rookie error of behaving as is just making the GF is already a huge achievement. Which of course it is from their history, but the job is only half-finished as any team that makes the GF ought to know. Of course, the final observation is that the Bulldogs will play without expectation & that lack of weight on their mind will be in their favour. The Swans, on the other hand, know all about the pitfalls & will be conscious of avoiding them. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Bulldogs & Giants belted each other to a standstill last week. The Doggies must still be hurting from all that extra exertion. While logic doesn't always follow in human affairs, I'm tipping the Swans to win, & win comfortably.

The Bulldogs will win! This is how I know. I am tipping Sydney to win by 4 points and will put money on it. That guarantees they will lose by about 15 points! This year was my worst tipping in a few years.

"So anon you are saying that Interstate teams are disadvantaged by having to play a Grand Final at the MCG – please note that I never disagreed with that. If that is correct then you must therefore acknowledge that Interstate teams have a greater advantage over Victorian teams during the home and away season. West Coast for example play 11 or 12 home games in Perth against teams that do not otherwise play there." Incorrect. An strong interstate team might be favoured to win 11 home games, but only favoured to win 5-6 away games. A strong Victorian team might play 18 games on effectively neutral ground, meaning they are favoured to win 18 games in Victoria, and favoured to win 2 away games. Victorian teams are at a huge advantage. "When say Carlton play a home game against Essendon, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Richmond and Melbourne at the MCG or Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and The Kangaroos at Etihad what ground advantage do they get – absolutely none.u" Exactly. See my above comment. "So clearly West Coast have a distinct home ground advantage during the H&A season compared to Carlton. We better fix this up so we can have a fair and equal competition as it seems Interstate teams have a better chance of playing finals due to ground advantage than Melbourne clubs. I wonder if there is a sport anywhere that has that sort of advantage/disadvantage?" Did you ever notice how West Coast struggle away from home every second week? "For the record I couldn’t care less where the grand final is played but at the moment there is a contract to play it at the MCG." You just renegotiate the contract. The MCC won't want to be seen as trying to monopolise the game in Victoria. The truth is the AFL (VFL) doesn't want to change it.

So anon you are saying that Interstate teams are disadvantaged by having to play a Grand Final at the MCG - please note that I never disagreed with that. If that is correct then you must therefore acknowledge that Interstate teams have a greater advantage over Victorian teams during the home and away season. West Coast for example play 11 or 12 home games in Perth against teams that do not otherwise play there. When say Carlton play a home game against Essendon, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Richmond and Melbourne at the MCG or Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and The Kangaroos at Etihad what ground advantage do they get - absolutely none.u So clearly West Coast have a distinct home ground advantage during the H&A season compared to Carlton. We better fix this up so we can have a fair and equal competition as it seems Interstate teams have a better chance of playing finals due to ground advantage than Melbourne clubs. I wonder if there is a sport anywhere that has that sort of advantage/disadvantage? For the record I couldn't care less where the grand final is played but at the moment there is a contract to play it at the MCG.

Free kick Bulldogs are nice and rested going into this Grandfinal haveing a week of finishing 7th on the ladder and then two consecutive 8 day breaks inbetween finals seems them primed and ready. Keep their free kick ratio for the finals this Saturday and they are the winners. Though I am a bit nervous on there 7 day break inbetween games.

Can't disagree with you Brendon but do the Swans have an advantage by being all together where they can help each other with nerves and emotions before the big game as opposed to the Bulldogs players who are scattered around Melbourne?

"anon, you stated that the Swans have to give up ‘home field’ advantage. " I see that your comprehension skills are quite well developed. Sydney are a Sydney team based in Sydney. The Bulldogs are a Melbourne team based in Melbourne. The Grand Final is played in Melbourne. "I just pointed out that there is no ‘home field’ advantage as they both have only played on the MCG 3 times this season." And the Bulldogs players rolled out of bed, had breakfast, pecked their missus on the cheek and drove to the MCG in all 3 games. Are you going to claim that Geelong didn't have home ground advantage against Sydney last week as well? "Yes, the Bulldog players wake up in their own beds on Grand Final day but surely the Swans players who as I said would probably travel 10 times a season would be used to waking up in their hotel rooms – they are after all professional sportsmen." I have heard it all now. The West Coast Eagles must be really good at the MCG then because they travel 10 times per year, flying 3.5 hours each way. The Swans just travelled to Melbourne a week ago to play Geelong, and less than a week later they're being forced to play on the road again for the championship game despite earning home field advantage in the regular season by finishing first. The Melbourne team by contrast only finished 7th. Even if you want to claim the MCG is a neutral venue for Sydney (despite playing a Melbourne team), even a VFL apologist like yourself must acknowledge that Sydney earned the right to host the Grand Final on their home ground by finishing 6 places above the Bulldogs on the ladder. The VFL acknowledged in 1991 that the interstate teams were at a distinct disadvantage playing finals in Melbourne, hence the introduction of home finals being awarded to teams based on their higher ladder position relative to their opponent. This applied to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd weeks of the finals (until 2004 only one interstate team could earn the right to a home final). The home final was introduced in the interests of fairness since the MCG and Waverley were essentially defacto home grounds for any Victorian team playing an interstate team in a final. Of course, since the VFL is a rigged game where the end goal of parochial Victorian administrators is to see a Victorian team triumph on Grand Final day, we have this ridiculous situation where every Grand Final is played at the MCG despite 8 of 18 teams being from other states. I'm trying to think of a situation in any other sport in the world where over half the teams in the league get an iron clad guarantee each year that the championship game will played on their home ground or defacto home ground no matter who the opposition is. It's utterly bizarre and completely unfair.

I am a staunch Sydney swans supporter and believe they are the best of good things to win the flag with such a great all round team and great pride in clubs management Bruce Lovelock wish i could of afforded to go from cowra n.s.w. so sad.

In all professional sports, waking up in your own bed and being comfortable with your routine and surroundings is a huge advantage. It's one of the reasons teams with home area advantage win so much more often. Being professional or having done it so many times helps but it doesn't make up for it in its entirety. I'm not saying a better team can't overcome it, it's just a little harder.

anon, you stated that the Swans have to give up 'home field' advantage. I just pointed out that there is no 'home field' advantage as they both have only played on the MCG 3 times this season. Yes, the Bulldog players wake up in their own beds on Grand Final day but surely the Swans players who as I said would probably travel 10 times a season would be used to waking up in their hotel rooms - they are after all professional sportsmen.