Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs: AFL grand final preview and prediction

So, it’s all come down to this. The Sydney Swans and the Western Bulldogs will vie for the 2016 premiership when the two sides meet at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

It’s been an incredible season of footy. We’ve seen the unexpected, we’ve seen the heartbreaking, we’ve seen the uplifting, we’ve seen the bizarre, and we’ve seen the downright ugly. This match has the potential to be all five.

To start with one has to pay tribute to what an incredible story the Bulldogs are, win or lose from here. They’re the first team in the history of the game to qualify for the grand final from as low as seventh position after the home-and-away season.

So often it’s said that you need to be in the top four to have a real shot at the flag. Every season we ask if maybe this is the year where someone from the 5-8 bracket gives it a real shake. Well, 2016 is that year.

If they win it, it’ll be arguably the greatest story in the history of our game, and you and I will have the privilege of having lived through it, and the joy of telling our children and grandchildren for years to come.

Suffice to say, Australia’s going to be a pretty disappointed country on Saturday night if the Bulldogs fall short. But that’s not to say that the Swans wouldn’t be incredibly deserving winners.

They were, after all, the minor premiers, and as I wrote before the finals began, this really is their flag to lose.

They’ve got a lot going for them and deservingly will head into the match as favourites. But this is a year where favouritism just doesn’t seem to matter, and anything can happen.

Last five matches
Round 15, 2016 – Sydney Swans 11.13.79 defeated by Western Bulldogs 13.5.83 – SCG
Round 5, 2015 – Sydney Swans 10.13.73 defeated by Western Bulldogs 11.11.77 – SCG
Round 22, 2014 – Western Bulldogs 9.13.67 defeated by Sydney Swans 20.10.130 – Etihad Stadium
Round 19, 2013 – Western Bulldogs 15.9.99 defeated by Sydney Swans 21.8.134 – Etihad Stadium
Round 21, 2012 – Western Bulldogs 13.7.85 defeated by Sydney Swans 26.11.167 – Etihad Stadium

Sydney Swans
In: Jarrad McVeigh, Callum Mills
Out: Aliir Aliir (knee), Harrison Marsh (omitted)

B: Jake Lloyd, Heath Grundy, Nick Smith
HB: Callum Mills, Jeremy Laidler, Dane Rampe
C: Kieren Jack, Josh P Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
HF: Tom Mitchell, Lance Franklin, Luke Parker
F: Tom Papley, Kurt Tippett, Ben McGlynn
Fol: Sam Naismith, Dan Hannebery, Isaac Heeney
Int: Gary Rohan, Zak Jones, George Hewett, Xavier Richards
Emg: Harry Cunningham, Toby Nankervis, Harrison Marsh

Western Bulldogs
No change.

B: Jason Johannisen, Joel Hamling, Matthew Boyd
HB: Shane Biggs, Dale Morris, Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken
HF: Jack Macrae, Zaine Cordy, Jake Stringer
F: Tory Dickson, Tom Boyd, Clay Smith
Fol: Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore
Int: Toby McLean, Fletcher Roberts, Josh Dunkley, Caleb Daniel
Emg: Matthew Suckling, Tom Campbell, Lin Jong

Key players
While the Sydney Swans boast a number of star players, there’s no doubt in my view that Lance Franklin is the most important of the lot.

He’s got a pretty solid record of big hauls against the Bulldogs, but arguably the one thing he hasn’t done in his career is really dominate a grand final.

Against a backline featuring the likes of Joel Hamling and Fletcher Roberts, he has the opportunity to run amok. If he can boot a bag, it’ll make the Swans hard to beat, and could put him in the frame for the Norm Smith medal.

For the Bulldogs there are a few standout names but the nod has to go to the budding superstar, Marcus Bontempelli.

The mark of a truly great player lies in how they perform on the biggest of stages, and Bontempelli could make himself the most beloved Bulldog of all time – well, maybe still second to Ted Whitten – with a big game on Saturday afternoon.

Happiness, heartbreak, and hard luck
There are going to be some stories both great and terrible come Saturday night. There’s a number of players coming into this match who could prove to be inspirational tales, but only some of them can have their dreams fulfilled.

The Bulldogs for example have stories like Clay Smith, who endured multiple ACL injuries to make it this far, along with the raucous celebrations that would come from father-son recruits like Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore and Zaine Cordy doing what their dads couldn’t.

However their victory would also see us shed a tear for players like Mitch Wallis, Jack Redpath, Matt Suckling, and of course Bob Murphy, who could’ve been a part of history were it not for a few bad twists of fate.

Similarly for the Swans it could be a great story for players like Ben McGlynn and Gary Rohan who missed the 2012 flag with injury, and then were fit for the 2014 decider only to lose. McGlynn is likely to retire after this one and it’d be a great way to go out.

However on the sidelines players like Aliir Aliir and Ted Richards will wonder what might have been had things gone just a little differently for them.

Do the Swans need a Franklin flag?
The opinion has been put forward by many during the week that the Sydney Swans, having three years ago signed Lance Franklin to a nine-year, $10 million contract, need to achieve a flag during Franklin’s time at the club to make it worthwhile.

You could debate a fair bit as to whether or not that really is the case. Purely in terms of the financial investment, the Swans have probably already made back Franklin’s wages through merchandise sales and increased membership and crowds.

However as a football investment, maybe there is something in it. Franklin’s arrival meant the Swans lost Shane Mumford at the time and will probably lose Tom Mitchell his year – and it also put a target on their heads that has seen the end of COLA, and a two-year trade ban that prevented them recruiting players like Joel Patfull and Matthew Leuenberger.

That said, nine years of Lance Franklin is nine years of Lance Franklin. I doubt the Swans will ever look back on this one as a move they regret, premiership or no.

So who’s going to win?
You can make a pretty strong argument for the Swans to win. On paper their team just seems to have a bit more star power and a bit more experience – as well as a significant number of players who’ve been here and won it before.

However, the Bulldogs have this year been a team that can rise above the odds and achieve more than what cold analysis suggests is realisitcally possible. How else could they have come this far?

I suspect we’ll know by quarter time whether or not we’ve got a game on our hands. The Swans have blown their last two oppoenents away in the first term and there’s every chance they could do that again.

However, if they don’t, you’d think the Bulldogs are in it up to their necks. Their ability to win the contested ball, starve the opposition of possession, and move with speed from the back half might tire the Swans as the game goes on.

In the end, it’s been a gut feel kind of year, and that’s the way I’m tipping.

Western Bulldogs to win by 12 points.

Where: MCG
When: 2:30pm
TV: Channel Seven, live
Betting: Sydney Swans $1.58, Western Bulldogs $2.45
Head-to-head: Sydney Swans 76, Western Bulldogs 79, Drawn 1
Last five: Sydney Swans 2, Western Bulldogs 3
In finals: Sydney Swans 1, Western Bulldogs 3