Why the Melbourne Storm will win the NRL grand final

The Melbourne Storm will defeat the Cronulla Sharks on Sunday evening in the 2016 NRL grand final.

Why? Because . . . because . . . because they’re playing the Sharks! Cronulla can’t win! It’s not what they do. They lose. They break their loyal fans hearts. It’s just their way. They haven’t won. Ever. 43 long years of misery. And long may that hoodoo continue.

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I want the porch light to continue to be left on in vain. I want the tears of Sharks fans to be the only thing drunk out of Shoey. I want Northies to be a sea of sadness on Monday. I want Paul Gallen to walk off as Cameron Smith accepts the Telstra Premiership trophy.

Regular readers – and even a few ‘irregular’ ones – will not be surprised to see me take this stance. I’ve been saying all season that the Sharks won’t win the 2016 NRL premiership, primarily based on the extremely selfish premise that I love sporting hoodoos.

They provide a subtext to every season, with patient fans asking “Is this finally the year?”, and jerks like me replying “No!”. Sporting hoodoos generate a lot of interest, and it’s for that reason that I want the Sharks’ barren trophy cabinet to remain in its current dust-collecting ways.

However, even if you remove that very silly and irrational bias against Cronulla, I still believe Melbourne will win on Sunday anyway.

I just have too much faith and respect in Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith’s ability to win a footy game; something they’ve done with alarmingly regularity in their careers.

In their halfback and hooker, the Storm have two of the best game managers I’ve ever seen. Time and time again, the pair will make the exact right decision at the exact right time, to ensure they put their team in the best position to succeed.

Cronk’s ability to ruthlessly execute a gameplan may be unrivalled in rugby league history. Certainly in the time I’ve been watching the game, few other players have demonstrated a better ability to clinically deliver their coach’s wishes.

Cronk doesn’t beat you with one flashy play, the way a game-breaker like Johnathan Thurston does. Instead, it’s death by a thousand cuts with Cronk. Over the course of a game he will systematically pull you apart, expose your weaknesses, and patiently beat you. It’s a chess match with him, not a knock-out punch.

With Canberra finishing fast and the game on the line in last Saturday’s preliminary final, the Storm needed a pinpoint kick on their fifth tackle option to squash the Raiders’ chances and run the clock out. I wouldn’t have wanted the ball in anyone else’s hands, and Cronk delivered, perfectly rolling the ball in-goal and giving his teammates time to tackle the Raiders and end the game.

It’s that type of execution – along with his patience – that make Cronk such a great player, and I think he’ll be the most important and influential player on the park Sunday night.

What makes the Storm truly dangerous and truly unique is that Cameron Smith is just as clinical. If Cronk is marked heavily and unable to get the ball, Smith steps up to run the team from dummy-half, and do tactical distance kicking, or attacking short kicking near the line.

Smith’s composure and calmness is infectious, and you rarely see the Storm panic due to effect their skipper has on the team. His quiet confidence is what gives Melbourne their steel, while all the physical little things he does over the course of a game add up to one massive impact.

Though the Storm also have an underrated forward pack and great finishers, it is because of this duo that I pick Melbourne to win, without hesitation. Their experience in big games, and their propensity to deliver in them, makes it very difficult to confidently pick against them.

The Sharks can win on Sunday, don’t get me wrong.

They’ve been one of the best teams in the competition all year, and the addition of James Maloney in the halves has paid large dividends in giving the team structure and direction – at long last linking a good forward pack with exciting backs.

The Sharks need to score early points, put some scoreboard pressure on the Storm, and be in front by at least a converted try with 20 to 25 minutes to go.

The Storm are at their most vulnerable when they’re chasing quick points. For all of the strengths in Cooper Cronk’s game that I mentioned before, he and the Storm are at their least effective when they play outside of their systems and away from their game plan.

They’re still very good in that situation, but they’re not at their best, and the Sharks will need the Storm to not be at their best if they want to win.

In essence, the grand final will not be given to the Sharks; they’ll need to go win it. Melbourne will make very few mistakes – while captilising on any the opposition gives them – and will defend strongly.

The Sharks will need to dominate the middle of the park, and the expected fiery opening stanza, before then putting some points on the board to test the Storm’s patience.

If they can do that, Cronulla can win.

I just don’t think Melbourne will let them.

Storm by 8.