Melbourne Cup 2016: The field shapes up

Since the last column on the Melbourne Cup field, we’ve had plenty of change as horses fall out or launch claims to be the early favourites. Let’s take a look at how the big race is shaping up.

The biggest surprise to this point is that there are only 52 horses still in contention to take the field after first acceptances a few days ago. In 2015 we saw 82 horses, and 2014 and 2014 saw 72 and 73 respectively.

There’s fewer overseas horses – down from 15 in 2015 to 12 this year. However, the overseas horses that have arrived look to be racing in more than just the Melbourne or Caulfield Cups, adding some intrigue even to country cups during the spring.

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One big change is in the betting – Hartnell is now the $5.5 favourite for the race after his incredible run of form. But it’s a long way to the big one from here so taking that price wouldn’t appear to be value just yet.

Who’s out of the Cup?

The two topweights, Order Of St George and Protectionist are both out, as was the likely case even a month ago.

Order Of St George was a valiant third in the Arc on the weekend where trainer Aidan O’Brien grabbed the trifecta. He’d have been very very competitive down here.

Protectionist, saddled up by German trainer Andreas Wohler, came good too late to be sure he’d run in the Melbourne Cup, and is instead chasing Canadian Group 1 glory in the $1 million Canadian International. That race on October 16, at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto in what looks to be a top field. You don’t hear much about Canadian racing but that’ll be worth watching.

Red Cardinal, Wohler’s other horse is sadly out. He ran a very strong race behind one of Europe’s classy mares in Nightflower in the 54 Preis von Europa in Cologne, appearing the winner close to the line just a week ago, but Wohler won’t bring him to Melbourne this year.

Aidan O’Brien is down to one horse after Idaho, Housesofparliament, and Sword Fighter were withdrawn. O’Brien will only train the Lloyd Williams owned Bondi Beach for the race.

Kinema, owned by the ‘Ashes’ syndicate in Sydney, is out as well, although has touched down at Werribee to join Chris Waller on a one-way ticket. Next year?

Erupt is out – shortly after the last article we were told the French stallion wouldn’t make it. He’s off to join Protectionist in the Canadian International. Gee that race looks even better.

One of the ‘local’ hopes is out in Signoff, who hadn’t done much in two starts this spell. The Darren Weir stable notified stewards that he wouldn’t take part.

Who’s in?

Ebor winner Heartbreak City is now a confirmed runner after Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock, who previously owned Jakkalberry and Dandino, bought into the horse. The seven-year-old has notched six wins from 22 starts, and won two hurdles in Ireland. He’ll stay the trip.

The horse formerly known as Exosphere is now renamed Exospheric, and the Freedmans who train him have high hopes for the stayer. He’s one of the early favourites for the Caulfield Cup as well as being well found in the Melbourne Cup.

I didn’t mention Godolphin’s Secret Number last time around but he’s in and he could be special. He won the Doonside Cup at Ayr for Saeed bin Suror after a 313-day layoff in mid-September. Talented but rarely-sighted is how the British racing papers described him.

Stablemate and mare Beautiful Romance is also in, just a four-year-old who’s won three from eight starts. She was third in a 2400m race leading into this after two months off, with Timeform describing her as having untapped potential.

All five of the Charlie Appleby trained Godolphin horses are in: The more-fancied Scottish, and four other lowly ranked stayers Francis of Assissi, Oceanographer, Qewy, and Second Wave. The latter four all need to prove themselves in Australia and have eyes on the Bendigo, Geelong and Moonee Valley Cups to do so.

Curren Mirotic is the lone Japanese-trained raider.

Locally, Darren Weir has seven chances including Prince of Penzance. The best of his other chances include Real Love and Tosen Stardom.

Lloyd Williams’ contingent includes The United States, Gallante and Almandin, plus Aloft, Foundry and Assign, who goes around today.

Chris Waller has five contenders, including Who Shot Thebarman, Preferment, Antonio Giuseppe, Grand Marshal, and Sacred Master.

John O’Shea trains the biggest name at the moment in Hartnell.

What next?

Plenty! First the day’s racing as to what to look out for.

The Group 2 Herbert Power (2400m) at Caulfield this afternoon gives us a good look at seven chances for both the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. The field is:

1. Prince of Penzance
2. Howard Be Thy Name
3. Big Memory
4. Assign
5. Pemberley
6. Dandy Gent
7. Master Zephryr

All apart from Big Memory are in contention for the Melbourne Cup. Howard Be Thy Name, the Group 1 South Australian Derby winner, and Pemberley are also in contention for the Caulfield Cup.

Although a small field, there’ll be plenty studying the replay of the race to figure out who to back in the Cups. It’s not just the winner or the top few, either. Protectionist was fourth in the Herbert Power before he won.

There’s a few nominated for the Melbourne Cup in other races – Tosen Stardom is in the Toorak Handicap. Gallilee won it, followed by the Caulfield Cup, then the Melbourne Cup back in 1966, but it’s a rare double.

After this are a number of important races – from the Caulfield Cup, to Cox Plate, to the unconventional lead-ups of the Geelong, Bendigo and Moonee Valley Cups.

Not all the horses are here yet either – Big Orange, Heartbreak City, Beautiful Romance, Secret Number.and Curren Mirotic are set to arrive on October 15th, Caulfield Cup Dy.

Second Acceptances close on October 24 and that’s when we’ll see more big moves.

From here, we’ll also see a shuffle of jockeys hoping to get a gun ride for the Melbourne Cup, and lots of small pieces of news, handicap changes, order of entry updates, and more.

Current Favourites

Make no mistake, this was an open race and then Hartnell started braining all his rivals. Will he stay 3200m? He’s done it before.

On paper, most of the very best hopes looked out it as Order Of St George and Protectionist dropped out.

But Hartnell, and Jameka are the two favourites here.

The all-in market looks something like this:

Hartnell $5.5
Jameka $10
Big Orange, Bondi Beach and Almandi at $13
Wicklow Brave, Exospheric and Heartbreak City at $17

The great race gets ever closer – we’ll keep across it here on The Roar.