The AFL offseason has the ability to make or break a club’s on-field fortunes. A good off-season can set a club up for success and attract new members and sponsors, while a failure to perform can have the opposite effect.
Each season is such a whirlwind of non-stop action that there is rarely time to draw breath; it is so easy to get caught up in the action of the season without thought of the future. The off-season provides a chance for clubs and fans alike to reset and take stock of where their club is going.
To build a brand and sell hope, clubs need to take a plan into the off-season; fans want to see that their club has a concrete plan for building the list. This usually involves either investing in the draft or topping up the list through the trade and free agency period, depending on the club’s list profile and ladder position.
Having a clear strategy allows the club to sell this to their fans, either building hope that the club is primed for finals and a premiership tilt, or asking for patience while the club attempts to lift itself off the lower rungs of the ladder. Put simply, a club’s on-field direction and expectations for the following season are driven largely by its strategy during the off-season.
While clubs like Melbourne and the Bulldogs are examples of successive successful off-seasons building optimism and good fortunes on the field, Port Adelaide is the best example of how mixed messages in the off-season can have an impact on on-field fortunes.
After going from competition basket-case in 2010 and 2011 to a whisker away from a grand final in 2013 and 2014, the Power have stagnated on-field in the past two seasons, frustrating fans with their obvious talent, but lack of consistent effort and endeavour. Like every team, they had injury concerns and sorely missed Paddy Ryder during his season-long suspension, but their on-field malaise seems to have been driven largely by their lack of a clear strategy in the past few off-seasons.
In 2013 and 2014, the club’s strategy was evident: forgo the draft in favour of bringing in experienced players to drive the team towards a premiership. In 2013, this included Matt White from Richmond and Jared Polec from Brisbane, while they brought in Paddy Ryder in 2014. This was the right strategy at the time, as the team was in a finals window. However, after two seasons of agonising near-misses, losing the 2014 preliminary final to Hawthorn by three points, the team’s strategy has become muddled and confusing.
Port’s charge to the finals in those two years was driven as much by improvement from their younger and depth players as it was from their trade period additions. When the team’s form dropped off slightly in 2015, it was due in large part to experienced players having below-par seasons, while there was less improvement from the depth players on their list. While there was a clear need for more forward firepower, Port’s list management team assessed that there was no need to make too many wholesale changes, with the list in pretty good shape, and largely still composed of the same group that had taken the team to the finals.
This was the message promoted by coach Ken Hinkley and list manager Jason Cripps during the 2015 off season; the club added Charlie Dixon from Gold Coast to address their lack of a key forward, but otherwise the public dialogue was that the team was still in a good place. This was reflected in the club’s decision to sign several players, such as midfielder Hamish Hartlett, Robbie Gray and Jackson Trengove, to long-term deals to ensure that their key players were around to drive the club’s push to finals. More than anything, this reflected the faith the club put in its players and their ability to deliver.
Having traded Dixon in, Port’s didn’t enter the draft until pick 56, and used their late picks to add depth to their position stocks. Despite this, there was public consternation by Port fans and industry pundits that the team had overestimated its list, and trading itself out of the draft was the wrong decision.
When a club publicly backs in its list, the onus is then on the team to deliver. Port’s dismal 2016 fell well short of this, finishing 10th on the ladder. Recognising, belatedly, that the list requires more depth to compete with the top echelon of the AFL, the club hierarchy used the 2016 trade period to change tack, deciding to try and maximise its draft hand rather than trading players in.
However, the decision of 12 months earlier to commit to its players backfired when, searching to gain a better draft position, the club tried to offer up its contracted stars for trade. Hartlett, in particular, was shopped around against his will, with the club relying on him leaving to net them more early draft picks.
His decision to stay at the club to which he had committed to long-term only the year – despite lucrative deals from other clubs – before stymied the club’s intentions, and has sent mixed messages to frustrated fans.
For the first half of the trade period, the club tried strongly to shop around contracted players. However, when no interest was forthcoming or players expressed their opposition to being traded, the club’s public message was that it was backing in its list for 2017. This is a confusing about-face from the team, and creates an atmosphere of negativity both within the team and among fans.
This was further exacerbated during the trade period when Port was involved in a number of dubious pick swaps, the first with Gold Coast and Brisbane where Port gave up its first-round pick in 2017 in return for late first and second round picks in 2016, and the second with Sydney where they swapped their pick 9 for picks 14, 17 and an improvement to their later picks.
While their improved draft hand in 2016 is a positive reflection of the club’s public messaging, on face value its decision to trade out of the first round in 2017 does not seem to be a well-thought out strategy for a club looking to rebuild its list through the draft.
Of course the club may be able to add another first round selection next year through trading, but given the current state of their player contracts, it’s not a fait accompli that the club will be able to achieve this.
In recent years, clubs who have had the most success in rebuilding their list through the draft have had a clear, well-considered strategy which has included maximising their draft hand over multiple years, not a knee-jerk reaction to the previous season’s results.
Having a good draft hand is also no guarantee that a team will make the right selections, so having a number of early selections over several years maximises the chances of success should some selections be a failure.
Port heads into 2017 in the dreaded ‘no man’s land’ of AFL football – with enough good talent to push the best teams, but not enough to play well on a consistent basis. Failure in 2017 will mean some interesting and hard list decisions at the end of the season, with the club having to decide whether its current crop of core players is going to be around for the next finals tilt.
More than this, however, the club needs to develop a long-term list management strategy going forward. It’s fair enough that Port made the decision to top-up rather than go to the draft in 2013 and 2014. However, the lack of long term list management strategy has not been confined to the past few seasons – the bald facts are that this is a team that has not had a first round draft pick since Ollie Wines in 2012, and has not had multiple early picks since 2008.
This is a damning indictment for a team that has played finals only twice in the past nine seasons, and speaks volumes about the systemic misjudgment of both the ability of the playing list and players drafted over that period (only 11 players drafted between 2008-2012 remain on the club’s list). Without a clearly identified strategy, Port risks being consigned to no-man’s land, mediocrity and irrelevance for the foreseeable future.
sammy
Guest
Crows established in a courtroom…says it all about some port supporters really. Just can’t hack the fact your team is almost irrelevant in the AFL..the big league. As for the crows never being a true established club….why does it get more members and more supporters and better TV audiences every season. It has won more premierships, has more brownlow medalists and more All Australians than the embarrassment down the road. But if we are going to talk FACTS, lets not forget 2007 how Port embarrassed itself on the national stage by setting an AFL record for greatest grand final losing margin. Who could forget port being the first team to lose to Gold Coast. How about the tarps..oh the tarps. That set a new record in embarrassment as their bandwagoner ‘fans’ decided not to bother to show up for a few years and the heirachy were bewildered at how to cover up those empty seats week after week. Port have finished lower on the ladder than the crows have ever done, they have had the lowest attendance for a home game between the two clubs, have the greatest losing margin of the two clubs recorded against it (north of 160 points vs the hawks). Oh how that must rankle with all those goldfish supporters who somehow think that 37 SANFL premierships equates to AFL premierships..imagine Hawthorn counting Box hill flags as AFL premierships…NOT. As for finances, you had better watch out as another season or two like the last couple and the AFL will be talking port up as a relocation option or maybe a fold.
Crows Established in a Courtroom
Guest
The cows supporters continue to remind the whole football world why they are despised and are the most uneducated and obnoxious. Anything that goes wrong for them is blamed on the Vics, umpires, big bad Port or any Victorian team. Their views are so remote from reality that they have a constant whinge about anything and everything. The cows were always the lovechild of the SANFL and have been given an armchair ride into the afl. Let's not forget the use of AMMI stadium rent free for 25 plus years at an annual rate of $2million. Yet they are happy to throw stones at other teams about handouts. Port would never have needed a handout if it wasn't for the treacherous sanfl trying to dismantle this great club and pt a wedge between the Poer and the Magpies. The cows have never been a true established club and never will. It was established in a courtroom out of spite to stop the sanfls cash cow, Port Adelaide from leaving for the AFL. Facts that are too hard for the cows supporters to digest, but we will never let facts and history be manipulated by these people.
sammy
Guest
Concessions.. 1. Paid millions less for your license fee to enter the AFL than the crows 2. Paid millions less in dividends back to the SANFL than the crows 3. Paid millions more by the AFL to keep your club afloat ($9 million ring any bells!!) 4. Paid millions less to buy back your license from the SANFL than the crows did I know the facts are hard for Port people to digest, but there is a big reason why the AFL refers to the have and the have not clubs and well, we know where port and the crows sit in that group.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
If it weren't for Port there wouldn't be a crows, Port propped up the SANFL for 50 years along with Norwood and if it wasn't for them trying to join the AFL the SANFL wouldn't have entered a bid to have the Crows enter the national comp. Concessions? What concessions, enlighten me?
sammy
Guest
' Ignore the fact the SANFL sucked them dry for 15 years.'..now I have heard everything. How about go look at the dividends the two clubs were paying back to the SANFL...there were a number of years there port paid zero..nada..niente. The crows were paying into the millions. Face facts, your club had a FAR FAR FAR easier ride into the AFL than the Crows ever did. But don't mope as it was your club that threw the whole SANFL into Chaos in 1990
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Let's just ignore the fact that SANFL sucked them dry for 15 years shall we. What a ridiculous comment.
Liam Sheedy
Roar Guru
It might be simplistic, but like many clubs they need some luck. It seemed to be that every little thing that could go wrong did and that would snowball the situation. You have Ryder suspended, then Lobbe playing like rubbish and injured, then Dougal Howard does an ACL. Someone like Angus Monfries returning is not the saviour, but you are going to get more output from him despite his age and missing a year than someone like Jake Neade. Polec struggled to recover from injury and outside run was a major issue with Matt White missing the entire year. I am sitting on the fence as to how they will go next year. Part of me thinks two years without finals and losses last year against teams like Fremantle and Carlton this year do not bode well but my internal optimism hopes for a revival. Sydney away in round 1 next year could destroy that optimism straight away! A major concern is still winning the tight games. 5 odd games this year lost by less than 3 goals. They just don’t close games out and too much reliance on Dixon as the key forward. With Schulz missing most the year and the refusal to play Butcher the team looked very disjointed. The home record at Adelaide oval was poor. There were still a few positives to take of out of this year. DBJ was great, Austin I think can comfortably fill the void left by Carlile retiring and I reckon Jesse Palmer could be a surprise packet next year. The club is under pressure, but I think Hinkley will be safe still if Port miss finals.
Sammy
Guest
Yep. Their license fee was far less than the crows. They also have had far more money given to them by the AFL over the journey..they are facts
Asd
Guest
The talent is there they need better nurturing coaches
Mister Football
Roar Guru
More assistance than the Crows? For real? The Crows smashed Hawthorn in their first ever game, who would win the premiership that year, a team full of blokes who had played SOO for SA.
Brinnx
Guest
Next season is massive for a few clubs, but the three under the most pressure IMO are Port, Richmond and the Pies with Geelong as an honourable mention. All three clubs have had middling recent success whilst promising "just wait until next year and watch us go". One of these teams will finish bottom four and cost their coach his job, one will press into the 8 and save their coach for two more years, the other will give their coach and fans many sleepless nights as they promise big things in 2018. As to who does what, I have no idea.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Good stuff Maddy. I agree with you, it looks like they've been caught in the middle a little bit. On their side is their relative youth - from memory they'll have one player over 30 this year and a bunch of guys just starting to hit prime age. I haven't seen them communicate this though; it's been very mixed.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
After selling out the SANFL many years ago so we have an expanded VFL rather than combined WA/SA & VIC I personally hope Port continue to burn in hell, just saying. having said that their ego's and so called history distorts the reality that they are a very average team will little direction.
Slane
Guest
I think Ryan Buckland predicted Ports demise after 2013-14. He said that because Port Adelaides only real advantage on other teams was their endurance running it wouldn't take an awful lot for the other teams to catch up. All it took to render Port Adelaide as a pretender was a whole swag of other teams starting to also play hard running football. Now instead of being at the head of the pack they are just another team.
sammy
Guest
They had far more assistance than their cross town rivals did - and Port also never had to play at lovely venues like Windy Hill, Victoria Park, Moorabin etc in their early years....don't feel sorry for Port
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Actually, I reckon Port Adelaide got the least assistance from the AFL than any of the new clubs. They did remarkably well to win that premiership.
Paul D
Roar Guru
It's a tough life on the backbench Tony
Tony Abbott - Member for the Shire of Trump
Guest
They got their flag gifted to them by the AFL as a welcoming present by the league, now struggle like the rest of us have had to.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Spot on with Toumpas, single handedly lost us at least one game that I can think off this year. Injuries are they key, if Port can keep them on the park then they'll be OK. I disagree that it's not a premiership list, the talent is there, the coaching staff need to get the best out of them, so if they don't perform, then yeah, I can see Hinkley being under a mountain of pressure come the end of the season.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
"Easiest way to remove the turnovers is not play Jimmy Toumpas. He is dreadful." I was going to say the same thing. How could he possibly be taken at pick #4 in the draft? His skills and decision The problem with Port is their effort. (Self disclosed Crows supporter, so opinions may be biased.) How can a team look like they just don't care and get thrashed by the Swans away and then Melbourne at home, then somehow get up and look like world beaters in a Showdown the next week? I am not sure Ken is the man to take them forward.