Derby Day: Preview and tips for all nine races

Derby day has been described as Christmas day for adults, or at least those of the racing persuasion.

The best horses in the land all converging on one day, to fight out nine Group races across a range of distances and conditions.

Apart from the four Group 1s which are the main features on the day, there is also the Melbourne Cup sub-plot in the form of the Lexus Stakes, the last chance saloon for some horses to get into the race that stops not just a nation, but increasingly the world.

The Flemington carnival begins with nine races on Derby day. Let’s have a look at all of them.

Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes – Group 3 – 1600m, three-year-old’s, set-weights with penalties

The Gothic Stakes on Caulfield Cup day is always the key lead-up to this race, and has been the final lead-up of seven of the last nine horses to win this race.

Peacock won that race, but isn’t here. Morton’s Fork most certainly would have been first across the line if not for a luckless passage in the straight, while Acatour will also have admirers after holding on well from an on-pace position against the pattern of the day.

Few horses come into this race as credentialled as Hey Doc though, coming off a Stutt Stakes win and Caulfield Guineas placing. Always he’s come up with a sticky draw and may have to go back on a day that tends to favour those up the front, he would be giving these horses over 10kg’s under pure handicap conditions, instead of the 2kg’s more he’s been assigned.

The x-factor horse is the freshest on the scene, Comin’ Through for the Chris Waller stable, who broke the clock last start and peaks here.

There is no natural speed in the race, which may make it tough for the back-markers, but class should prevail in the end.

Selections: 1. Hey Doc 2. Morton’s Fork 3. Comin’ Through 4. Acatour

Race 2 – Wakeful Stakes – Group 2 – 2000m, three-year-old fillies, set-weights with penalties

The traditional lead-up to the VRC Oaks usually assembles an even field of fillies looking to enhance their staying credentials.

A number of these fillies are coming from the Ethereal Stakes a fortnight ago, so have had a run over 2000m this campaign already. Eleonora won that race in fine style, but is going straight into the Oaks. Tiamo Grace was the eye-catcher late, recording a sizzling last 200m to hit the line better than anything. Sebring Dream was also strong there after a pleasing Thousand Guineas run, and she has the class to figure.

Missrock gets her chance at Flemington now after two starts at the less suitable Caulfield, including in that Thousand Guineas. Bella Sorellastra is another backmarker that will appreciate the Flemington straight, as she did two starts back in a blazing run.

Pretty Punk brings the Adelaide form to the race, which held up well through Morvada in the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley last week, and she will be tough to beat.

Selections: 1. Pretty Punk 2. Tiamo Grace 3. Bella Sorellastra 4. Sebring Dream

Race 3 – Sensis Stakes – Group 3 – 1100m, mares, set-weights with penalties

A 20 horse straight race with a field full of smart sprinting mares. It’s not usually the recipe for easy punting success, and this field will have given many a punter a nightmare.

Sheidel heads the betting as an in-form mare and arguably the best horse in the race after a strong win when heavily backed at Caulfield last start. She appears well weighted based on her form over the last 12 months, and is consistent enough to be a solid each-way play.

Wild Rain was in sizzling form earlier in her campaign, and make huge appeal at around the $10 mark if you can forgive a plain run last time when favourite against the boys. This is her distance, but it may not be her track.

If the tempo is strong, and it should be, no horse will be closing faster than Viddora, and Adelaide horses have a great record at the Flemington carnival. This prep, she has beaten the very smart Ocean Embers, run second to a hot Heatherly, and then had no luck against the boys and Wild Rain last time.

Super Cash will take beating as a winner down the straight, especially if the rail is the place to be. Palazzo Pubblico is underrated and can win again at big odds. Vezalay is always somewhere thereabouts in these sorts of races.

There are half a dozen others that could win if they get the breaks too!

Selections: 1. Viddora 2. Sheidel 3. Vezalay 4. Super Cash

Race 4 – Lexus Stakes – Group 3 – 2500m, open, quality

The winner of the Lexus almost always runs a good race in the Melbourne Cup, with Shocking the last horse to complete the double, in 2009.

This year’s edition sees a handful of legitimate chances, headed up by the travelling Godolphin horse Oceanographer, a late nomination fresh off a Geelong Cup third last week. He’ll love every bit of the Flemington straight.

Tally, Real Love, and De Little Engine come back from the Caulfield Cup. Tally’s outstanding third in the Turnbull Stakes behind Hartnell and Jameka recommends him, and he didn’t have things go his way last time.

Real Love raced upside down in the Caulfield Cup after a big win in the JRA Cup. These two do have to carry weights that haven’t won this race before.

De Little Engine was the sneaky eye-catcher in both of his last two starts, the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup, even though he is out-graded at that level. It says 8-6-7-9 in the formguide next to his name, but he is flying for this sort of event and the further the better for him.

Tom Melbourne will be the leader, and returned to his best last time in an outstanding run against the pattern of the day at Caulfield. Derby Day can play leaderish with the rail in the true, and if he gets away with an easy time in front, he’ll be hard to catch although suspicions linger about his suitability at the distance.

Selections: 1. De Little Engine 2. Tom Melbourne 3. Oceanographer 4. Tally

Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes – Group 1 – 1200m, 3yo’s, set weights

The first of the Group 1 races, and some are already declaring it will be the race of the spring. It’s easy to see why.

The winner of the Golden Rose (Astern), Golden Slipper (Capitalist) and Blue Diamond (Extreme Choice) all collide in the truest sprinting test – six furlongs down the Flemington straight.

Add to this the likes of Star Turn, winner of the Schillaci Stakes, Russian Revolution, who beat Astern last start in the Roman Consul, and Saracino, winner of the Danehill Stakes at this track and distance last month. And we can’t forget Blue Sapphire Stakes winner Flying Artie, who also happened to be placed in both the Slipper and Diamond as a two-year-old, behind the horses named above.

Working out who is going to be the fastest is no easy task, and all we can hope for is that every horse gets their chance, and there is no track bias or bad luck in running.

The Golden Rose is always the strongest three-year-old form, and Astern won with such dominance that it’s hard to tip against him. Extreme Choice beat the older horses with authority first-up at WFA, but there is a little question mark over the form behind him that night, given Wild Rain, Chautauqua, Buffering, Lucky Hussler, and Chloe in Paris have all since run unplaced since the Moir Stakes.

Star Turn was handled by Astern earlier in the prep. Russian Revolution might just beat them all again, and is certainly over the odds.

Selections: 1. Astern 2. Russian Revolution 3. Extreme Choice 4. Star Turn

Race 6 – Myer Classic – Group 1 – 1600m, mares, weight-for-age

The Myer Classic is always one of the most open Group 1s of the entire racing season, as evidenced by the starting price of the winners in recent years. Five of the last six winners have paid between $16 and $41, which is somewhat odd for a restricted WFA race when the form should be true.

First Seal is arguably the most talented mare in the race, won a key lead-up last start to ensure her place as favourite here, and will lose no friends from an inside draw.

Don’t Doubt Mamma is in hot form, loves Flemington, and the form behind her last two wins has been strong. From barrier 13 she’ll get the chance to settle back with cover and make a sustained run.

Dixie Blossoms has the quickest turn of foot in the race, and couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Angst Stakes at Randwick last start. From barrier four Tim Clark can position her where she’s most comfortable, in order to strike when the whips are cracking.

That takes care of the obvious, but the list of other potential winners is long.

Danish Twist has claims coming out of good races. Heavens Above comes out of a good run in the Epsom. Euro Angel is the most lightly-raced in the field, but a long way from the most lightly talented.

Three year-olds don’t win this race, but Whispering Brook and I Am A Star come in as Thousand Guineas placegetters. The market has the latter three times the odds of the former, which looks wrong.

It’s a tough and even race, and it can be hard to look past the obvious, such as the four selections below, all last start winners. History says it may pay to go wider than that, and you can have the courage of your convictions if you like something at bigger odds.

Selections: 1. Dixie Blossoms 2. First Seal 3. Don’t Doubt Mamma 4. Euro Angel

Race 7 – Victoria Derby – Group 1 – 2500m, three-year-olds, set weights

Despite often receiving criticism for being too long too early in the season for the three-year-olds, the Victoria Derby once again draws a capacity field of young stayers.

Sacred Elixir is the heavy market-elect and, although this race has been something of a favourite’s graveyard in recent years, he does look clearly the one to beat. Already a Group 1 winner over 1600m as a two-year-old, he’s won two races this prep already, either side of his Caulfield Guineas sixth, and looks like he’ll relish 2500m.

Morvada was impressive behind Sacred Elixir in the Vase at Moonee Valley last week, and looked strong through line after being taken on 600m from home. He’ll go forward from barrier 10 and may even lead, but if he can do so without spending any petrol, he’ll be hard to get past late.

So Si Bon completed the trifecta in the Vase, and while he wasn’t as eye-catching as his previous two runs, he should appreciate firm ground and the long Flemington straight. The Robbie Laing / Hugh Bowman combination took this race out in 2013.

Swear and Prized Icon filled placings behind Yankee Rose in the Spring Champion earlier this month, and we saw what a huge run that filly produced in the Cox Plate.

The Caulfield Classic is another key lead-up, and the likes of Inference, Rocketeer, Wine Bush and Kent can all figure in the finish. Kent is probably the value player due to the kindest draw of that lot.

Highlad was enormous at Flemington two starts back, in one of the runs of the day, and then was the victim of a butcher ride last start. He can bounce back at big odds, but needs favours from the wide draw.

The favourite looks in a very strong position to have the race run to his liking from an inside barrier, where he won’t have to spend a penny in the run. If he doesn’t run out a strong 2500m, it’s anyone’s race.

Selections: 1. Sacred Elixir 2. Morvada 3. Highlad 4. Swear

Race 8 – Cantala Stakes – Group 1 – 1600m, open, quality

The Cantala Stakes is a new race on the Derby Day program. It is effectively the old Emirates Stakes, moved forward a week, taking the place of the old Mackinnon, which is now run on the last day of the Flemington carnival.

The race has attracted a deep and even field, with quality horses the entire way down.

The United States and Palentino are the Group 1 WFA winners in the field, and look quite well weighted given that history. The former is backing-up from last week off an interrupted preparation, while the latter is coming off an Epsom flop.

Stratum Star and He’s Our Rokki are Group 1 handicap winners. Stratum Star hasn’t won for over a year and his form has been no more than workmanlike, but he’s capable at odds. He’s Our Rokkii is one of the form horses of Australia, with five wins on end spread across autumn and spring, including the Toorak Handicap last start.

Great Esteem ran second in the Toorak, and was within 6.5 lengths of Winx at WFA the start before that. That looks a pretty good margin now! He’ll lead them along, and looks a major blow-out chance at 50-1. Tivaci was third in the Toorak and will have admirers at a price back at his home track.

Le Romain ran well in the Epsom and will be hard to beat tracking the speed, and Mackintosh is in a similar boat. They’ll represent themselves well at handy each-way quotes. McCreery wouldn’t surprise form the same race.

Voodoo Lad has three Stakes wins and a Group 1 second from his last four starts, but goes to 1600m for the first time and has to negotiate that trip from barrier 17. Good Project meets him 4kgs better for a two length defeat last time, and must be taken seriously.

Thunder Fantasy is the comeback horse from the Anthony Cummings stable, returning from Hong Kong with a win after 17 months off the racing scene, and carrying 63kgs to do it. Seaburge is the lone three-year-old in the field, coming off his Caulfield Guineas second, and will only have 50kgs on his back.

There are plenty of winning chances here, and few that you could put a line through completely.

Selections: 1. He’s Our Rokkii 2. Mackintosh 3. Stratum Star 4. Great Esteem

Race 9 – Tab.com.au Stakes – Group 2 – 1200m, open handicap

After a day of tough, high quality races, we have another one to finish.

Southern Legend heads the betting, a lightly-raced gelding that has been running great races in hot fields up in Sydney. Keen Array has matured into a nice four-year-old sprinter after showing talent in his younger days, and should get the run of the race assuming the inside rail is the place to be.

Ocean Embers is similar to Southern Legend in that she’s a mare on the up. If she’d drawn wider instead of barrier one, she’d almost be a one-out in the quaddie but that inside draw is a huge concern. If she gets the space to unleash her finish, it will take a good one to beat her.

We’ve Got This is something of a straight track specialist and very good horse, and is ready to win. Durendal fits the same profile, albeit at much longer odds, and his placing behind The Quarterback two starts ago down the straight makes him a threat.

Dibayani and Counterattack both drop back from Group 1 mile races. Neither should be overly suited by these events, but have the quality to figure in the finish nevertheless. If looking for a reason to risk horses, that could be enough.

Ball of Muscle, Dothraki and Generalife are all Sydney war-horses that usually run well but struggle to find the line ahead of all others.

Selections: 1. Southern Legend 2. Ocean Embers 3. We’ve Got This 4. Keen Array

Every racing fan has a sleepless night before Derby Day, excited about the day itself, as well as the week to come. Good luck to all!