There is no bigger race in this part of the world than the Melbourne Cup. And with it comes a full ten-race card, almost all of which are capacity fields or near enough to capacity.
It’s arguably the toughest day’s punting on the racing calendar, but we shouldn’t let that stop us from having a crack.
» Melbourne Cup 2016
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» Melbourne Cup raceday schedule
Race 1 – 10.40am
An early start, with unpredictable two-year-olds taking on the famous Flemington straight. Only a handful of these 16 juveniles have had race experience, and a number haven’t even been seen at the trials.
Madeenaty is the odds-on pop after an impressive debut when she was well backed to win here on Turnbull Stakes day. Tarima, Margot and New Blessing all come from the same Bendigo maiden, but are not expected to figure here.
Lucky Louie, down from Sydney, looks the value. Anthony Cummings has had a bright start to the season with his two-year-olds, albeit without winning yet, and it would be an omen start to Melbourne Cup day for the famous Cummings name to salute.
Selections: 1. Lucky Louie 2. Madeenaty 3. Hard Faith 4. Wired
Suggested Bet: Lucky Louie each-way
Race 2 – 11.20am
This race over 1700m brings together some good class mares that have been racing in better grade but without many wins on their recent resume, and some visitors from interstate or the country tracks.
The unbeaten Model Dragon will be hard to beat second-up, stepping up in distance from a good draw, and the Phillip Stokes/Dom Tourneur combination has been one of the most winningest in Cup week over recent years.
Nassak has a good winning strike rate, and the James Cummings stable is firing. Sort After beat the highly regarded Euro Angel two starts back and never runs a bad race. Gai Waterhouse will have trained her to peak on this day.
Of the locals, Amarela should appreciate Flemington after three runs at Caulfield, and makes each-way appeal. Every Faith may be ready to strike now fourth-up. Jessy Belle and Metaphorical are the proven class runners, but have to carry 59.5 kilos accordingly. They won’t be far away, but whether they can beat them all is another question.
Selections: 1. Model Dragon 2. Sort After 3. Nassak 4. Amarela
Suggested bet: Model Dragon – win
Race 3 – midday
This race brings together the lesser class of stayer over 2800m, a few levels below Melbourne Cup level. Some might even call them the battlers, but there are some honest horses among them.
In these type of races on the big days, it can pay to stick with the big name trainers, especially when they are partnered with their favourite jockeys.
Chris Waller is a master trainer of stayers, and has three live chances here. Murphy’s Delight is the most favoured of the trio, no doubt helped by the engagement of Hugh Bowman to ride. This horse has had a solid build-up to this kind of trip, and the further the better for him.
Waller also has top weight Kinema, whose fourth in the Geelong Cup looks better now given Oceanographer ran third there and is now second favourite in the Melbourne Cup. Four Carat is an honest type down in the weights.
Darren Weir has the ever-consistent Firenze, with Dean Yendall engaged, who is riding a hot patch of form in big races with two Group 1 wins and a Cox Plate third in recent weeks. Owner Lloyd Williams has four runners in the big one, but also Morning Mix in this, with Katelyn Mallyon on board, one of the best judged of pace in the country.
There are chances also to Super Haze, All I Survey and Sonntag who has been well backed at odds in early markets.
Selections: 1. Murphy’s Delight 2. Morning Mix 3. Firenze 4. All I Survey
Suggested bet: Boxed quinella – Murphy’s Delight, Firenze, Morning Mix, All I Survey.
Race 4 – 12.40pm
This race over 1400m looks one of the easiest to dissect of the day.
Demonstrate has matured into a nice sprinter, and has been putting together some nice wins in lesser grade after running into a few stars earlier in his career. Rageese is a quality galloper that is building to a win but just hasn’t had things go his way this prep. 59.5 kilos is a steadier for him here.
Lucky Liberty is extremely smart, and trainer Henry Dwyer has a huge opinion of him. He wasn’t far behind Demonstrate three starts back and has won twice since, improving each time. Burning Passion brings good Sydney form to the event and must be included.
Sebring Sun and Sovereign Nation are classy types running in good form races and are both due to break through. They appeal as the value runners at double figure odds.
Selections: 1. Lucky Liberty 2. Demonstrate 3. Rageese 4. Burning Passion
Suggested bet: Boxed first four – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Race 5 – 1.20pm
This is the second straight race for the day over 1000m for three-year-olds, and it brings together some handy types. They are coming from everywhere, so their form is hard to line up against each other.
Speedeor has only had two starts, winning his maiden last time out, and has been heavily backed in the early markets. His sire, Northern Meteor, was a Group 1 winner down the Flemington straight.
Biased Witness will be tough to beat for Robert Smerdon. Ashlor is three from three working his way through the grades, and deserves this kind of test now. Amanaat won a moderate maiden by four lengths back in May, but hasn’t been seen since. This will have been a target race for the Hayes and Dabernig stable.
Neapolitan must be taken seriously, and if you just backed the Stokes/Tourneur combination this week you’ll probably end up in front. Dream First has created a lot of interest first-up since February, when she contested the Blue Diamond lead-ups, running with distinction.
Selections: 1. Speedeor 2. Dream First 3. Neapolitan 4. Biased Witness
Suggested bet: Dream First each-way
Race 6 – 2pm
This 1400m race for fillies has attracted an even field, with at least half of them genuine winning chances. It’s one of the toughest races of the day.
Sylpheed heads the market, and her supporters that backed her into odds-on favouritism last start are keen to follow up again after Damien Oliver gave her a ride that was not magnificent. Tommy Berry should give her a gun run from barrier three.
Sweet Sherry looks toughest to beat, winning two from three this prep, and should probably have won the other after a run that was interrupted several times in transit. She’s drawn to be ridden with cover and swoop late.
The Snowden yard always finds a winner or two in Cup week and have My Country ready to win here, as well as Quick Feet at much longer odds than she should be. Faraway Town ran well in Group 1’s in the autumn, and we’ve seen that form stand up through Yankee Rose and Prized Icon this spring. She’ll relish every bit of 1400m.
Samara Dancer can improve at odds with a more economical run. Skylight Glow has form behind the right horses from earlier in her prep, but may have trained off. The race does not end there either.
Selections: 1. Faraway Town 2. Sweet Sherry 3. Sylpheed 4. Quick Feet
Suggested bet: Faraway Town each-way
Race 7 – Melbourne Cup – 3pm
The race that stops our nation is here, and brings with it the usual array of storylines and chances, from local hopes, imports, and visiting internationals.
Caulfield Cup winner Jameka has been on the drift in recent days, as is often the case given she hasn’t raced for two and a half weeks, and other horses run and catch the attention of punters.
Jameka was a powerful, explosive and dominant winner of the Caulfield Cup, in a manner that suggested 3200m would prove no problem. She has drawn perfectly in barrier three and will be able to sit in the fourth pair behind what should be a strong speed. Nothing from the Caulfield Cup will be beating her home, so you can rule out Our Ivanhowe, Exospheric, Almoonqith and Sir John Hawkwood.
Hartnell beat Jameka pointless in the Turnbull Stakes two starts back and has since run second in the Cox Plate behind the great Winx. Of the last six locally trained Melbourne Cup winners, four of them have used the Turnbull/Cox as their final lead-ups. It’s the right formula. Question marks remain over his distance credentials, and whether the Cox Plate run will have taken too much out of him.
Oceanographer is the late horse on the scene, improving out of sight since arriving in the country. The winner of the Lexus Stakes always runs well in the Cup, and he should prove no exception. Nothing that he has faced in that race or the Geelong Cup will finish in front of him here, so there is no room for Qewy, Grey Lion, Rose of Virginia and Pentathlon.
Almandin for Lloyd Williams has been the street-corner tip for a couple of weeks, and will give you value for money around the $16 mark with only 52 kilos on his back. He’s won his two lead-ups in fine style, giving the impression that he would have plenty more to give in the Cup.
Looking at horses behind Almandin at his last two starts, and thus tying in the Moonee Valley Cup, we can rule out B-graders like Assign, Excess Knowledge, Grand Marshal, Gallante and Who Shot Thebarman.
That leaves us with the internationals that are all having their first run here this prep.
Big Orange ran fifth in the Cup last year, and looks less suited this time. Exospheric looks to have his measure from when they met in Europe, and we saw Jameka have that horse covered in the Caulfield Cup. Bondi Beach was part of the midfield carnage in the Cup last year, and needs to find a bit to be a contender here.
Godolphin visitors Beautiful Romance and Secret Number don’t have a great deal of respect in the market, and don’t profile like Melbourne Cup winners. Japanese runner Curren Mirotic has run six times in the last 12 months, for one good run and five plain performances. He is a good horse on his day, but that day is coming around less and less frequently. He will set the pace and likely be the first one beaten.
Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City are the two visiting horses we are yet to see with the best chance of taking home the Cup.
Wicklow Brave is a last start winner that is peaking at the right time. He had Trip to Paris 16 lengths behind him there, and we remember that horse running second in the Caulfield Cup and fourth in the Melbourne Cup last year. His trainer has targeted this race successfully in the past, for two top-four finishes from the only horses he’s brought over.
Heartbreak City has won three in a row, including a couple over the jumps, and is coming into his own at the right time as a 10-15 length better horse than he was a year ago. His trainer has a reputation for canny placement and scoring big ticket wins with well-rated handicappers.
There looks to be a genuine tempo in this race, and the strongest stayers will certainly come to the fore at the end of 3200m. Expect to see a well-spread field as they cross the finish line.
The winner should come out of Hartnell, Wicklow Brave, Jameka, Heartbreak City, Almandin and Oceanographer.
Selections: 1. Jameka 2. Oceanographer 3. Wicklow Brave 4. Hartnell
Suggested bet: Box the six horses mentioned above in a trifecta.
Race 8 – 4pm
Fabrizio is one of the hottest favourites of the day and will prove hard to beat in this 1800m event. He was barbequed in the lead in the Epsom two starts back, which has proven one of the hottest form races of the spring. He bolted in last time, and will look the winner for most of the straight.
Jacquinot Bay brings Melbourne Group 1 form into the race, and has been itching to get into easier grade and become a winning chance. He is ridiculous overs at around the $17 mark.
Plot the Course will be hard to beat if barrier one isn’t a disadvantage. Lidari has been a proven Group 1 performer over the years, and made The United States work to beat him in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last week.
Hi World and Tashbeeh have the quality to figure if they find their best form, but are enigmatic competitors. US import Closing Bell is one of the most interesting runners of the day, on debut for Chris Waller with magic man Joao Moreira on board.
Selections: 1. Jacquinot Bay 2. Fabrizio 3. Closing Bell 4. Tashbeeh
Suggested bet: Jacquinot Bay each-way
Race 9 – 4.40pm
Near capacity field 1200m straight races are always among the hardest to predict, and this race looks no exception.
Faatinah carries top weight and will be hard to beat if he can reproduce his Bobbie Lewis win from September. He was superb at Caulfield last start too. Ruettiger comes out of the same race, and also enjoys the straight course. Sir Bacchus was heavily backed to win last start, and has claims again.
Ravi is a lightly raced mare with form behind some good horses like Heavens Above and Sheidel this prep. The latter won on Derby day, and the former was denied luck in the Myer Classic. This won’t be an easy race for Ravi to win, but she is certainly capable.
Lord Von Costa isn’t the worst $31 shot you’ll see all day, unlucky last start behind a good horse. His three previous runs were down the Flemington straight, where he finished in the first two each time, and the form around him there is strong.
Selections: 1. Lord Von Costa 2. Ravi 3. Faatinah 4. Sir Bacchus
Suggested bet: Lord Von Costa each-way
Race 10 – 5.15pm
The last race of a long day, over 1400m for the mares, sees what might be the best bet.
Silent Sedition has had six runs in 2016 for three wins, including two black type events, and three seconds, including one at Group 1 level, and last start when first-up behind Sheidel, a horse that has since won again on Derby day.
Silent Sedition likes to race handy to the speed, and Craig Williams will have every chance to get the perfect run from barrier four, especially given the race looks like it could be run at a moderate tempo.
The main dangers appear to come from Sydney, particularly through the Nivison Stakes won by Egyptian Symbol, a four-year-old mare that ran well in good races as a three-year-old filly.
Artistry was second there and could have finished closer with a kinder run. Onemorezeta ran a closing fifth despite doing a few things wrong, and can improve. Kimberley Star was fourth behind Egyptian Symbol, and was another hard luck story.
A Lotta Love was right behind Silent Sedition two starts back and must be taken seriously hitting 1400m for the first time this prep. She always runs well. Shillelagh is talented and appears destined to win black type races.
Selections: 1. Silent Sedition 2. Onemorezeta 3. Shillelagh 4. Kimberley Star
Suggested bet: Silent Sedition – win
Jason
Guest
You beauty! Thanks Cameron ?
Sunshine
Guest
Nice tip for the box Tri cam
Johnybulldog
Guest
Great start andrew
geejay
Guest
Charlie Appleby is having a whale of a time at this year’s spring carnival in Melbourne. Charlie has already got the Geelong Cup, Bendigo Cup and the Lexus Stakes In the bag and also got the place getters of Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup and Lexus Sakes to his credit. At next Saturdays Emirates Charlie’s horse SCOTTISH is the raging hot favorite. For the Melbourne Cup he has managed to get QEWY (a front-runner) and OCEANOGRAPHER (who charges home late). Since Lady Luck is on Charlie’s side I think OCEANOGRAPER will win the MELBOURNE CUP.
Bob
Guest
Like your cup summary, but didn't Qewy beat Oceanographer at Geelong? How can the winner be no chance and the second horse a top chance?
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Last years winners on Cup day include Malaguerra, Don't doubt mamma, Awesome Rock and Scarlet Billows. It seems that every year the standard of racing gets better and better on Cup day in general and it's great to see a quality preview of the whole day's racing, well done Cam! I really like Shillelagh as a horse and hopefully she'll bounce back after nearly being taken through the inside fence last start. I don't like Demonstrate over 1400m at that price at all and I think Sovereign Nation at the price to beat Rageese. Other than that Jessy Belle gets a chance and topweights in mares races don't comcern me. I don't know what to make of Metaphorical this prep, cracking run first up then two runs that were just a run, if that. Finally Lidari coming off a length defeat to the United States at level weights is silly odds, with Closing bell the great unknown. Best of luck!
Horse_X_Human
Guest
My thoughts on the cup: #1: BIG ORANGE; Good run in the cup last year. Good tough stayer that has most of the international contingent covered while at home. He will be up on pace and can stay all day. I like his prep coming in this year better than last years. He has equal top weight but 57kg is one of the lower weights this boys used to running 3200 metres with. Top ten hope. #2: OUR IVANHOWE; Excellent run in the cup last year. I just think that was his best chance of winning. Everyone is saying he needs it wet, but i see zero wet track form on his resume, so it baffles me where they get confidence in a wet track. He drew 22 last year and draws 6 this time around so may be able to possie up a bit closer but that remains to be seen. Anyway, i think the stablemate has him covered. Top ten hope. #3: CURREN MIROTIC; Well Tommy Berry has been extremely vocal stating his intention to make this a truly run race as his 9yo has zero speed in his legs. Dont believe him though, he will take a break if allowed the oppurtuniy., all depends on what the others around hit are doing. The time he ran over 3200 in the tenno shin in Japan would have won every Melbourne cup race ever won. But its a different track and he wont be going close to that time @Flemington. He is 9yo and as much as i respect the tough old stayers, i can't have him. Back half finish. #4: BONDI BEACH; The horse that was bred, brought and trained specifically to win the Melbourne Cup. History is obviously against him, with first-up internationals having an average overall record in the great race. But this is Aiden O'Brien. Two trainers that will win the Melbourne Cup over the next 5 years are O'Brien and Willie Mullins. The best staying trainers in the world. Fullstop. They brought him over last year to compete too young, admitted by the trainer and owners, this year he is a different horse. Blah blah blah about first up in the Melbourne Cup, If Aiden and his team thought the best prep to win this years Cup was to have a run in October, in Australia, in Melbourne - then they would have done so. They didnt and i have all the confidence in the world they know what they are doing. Low confidence overall tip at the end of the day, its a very very hard race to assess. Drawn very well in 5 and that will suit him down to the ground. I'm with Bondi and Exo. My equal number 1 selection. #5: EXOSPHERIC; The big, untapped 5yo under the care of the Freedmans. Been Lee and Anthonys preference since his Caulfiled Cup run. Run wasn't the best, awesome run you have ever seen, but we all know that these horses can improve out of sight at their 2nd run in Aus. He ran the last 800 as well as Jameka., and in my opinion has more improvement this prep than her. My number one pick before the barrier draw was Wicklow Brave, an out and out stayer from Williw Mullins yard. In a race back home in GB, they met over 2400. Exo was a 6-4 favourite, with Wicklow at 16/1. Although Wicklow beat him home that day, i much prefer to stick to the 'expected' performance from staying races rather than 'actual' performance. Drew 13, has Oliver on board, and has huge, untapped potential. All the right credentials for me. Exo and Bondi. My Equal number 1 selection. #6: HARTNELL; Wow, what-a-prep! No other way to put it. Will it cost him. I think it will. Ratings wise he is absolutely unbeatable if he runs up to his mark. But the MC isn't alllll about ratings. He reminds me slightly of Fiorente, but i always had more belief in Fio over the longer trip. Last year the cup was run at snails pace. He was out the back doing absolutely zero work so rightfully should of sprinted straight past at least the old stayers in the race out near the back with him. He didn't. I don't believe in his 3200metre cred, and LOVE the fact most of the Country are soley going off ratings and recent form. I think he peaked in the Turnbull, is not a genuine 3200 m horse, and has had a very tough prep thats sure to have taken some stamina away. I dont like him. He may prove me wrong and blow these away. Nut i dont like him this day. Top ten hope. #7: WHO SHOTTHEBARMAN; Yes i love this horse. I watched him win the Avondale Cup followed by the Auckland Cup (3200 G1) in New Zealand in 2014 and declared him a future Melbourne Cup winner! He stays all day and deserves his 3rd and final run. Sadly i believe his 2 best chances are behind him. Top ten hope. #8: WICKLOW BRAVE; Wicked trainer, good credentials, good jockey, almost everything did tick the box. But barrier 24?! I just see him ending up on a horror run, Frankie says he can run 3 or 4 wide and still win, but thats not @ Flemington and not in a MC. If he has any luck slotting in, he could vry well win. First four hope. #9: ALMOONQUITH: Good closing sectionals last start and the right sort of prep this year. Highly rate Hayes and dabernig and sure they will have him spot on for the race. Of all runners here from last year, he was most favoured 2015 at 16-1. I'm not sure if he has the class., But defiantely a smokey for mine. First four hope. #10: GALLANTE: Impresive winning the Sydney cup in April, and Lloyd Williams says completely put a line through his last start at Moonee Valley. Remember he was the 4-1 favourite, so was expected to win the race. Failed/easy to forgive. Was good behind Jameka in September, has Shinn to ride and part of the Mount Macedon crew. Has to be some chance but personally i struggle to look past a run that bad without genuine excuses. So not for me. Back half finish. #11: GRAND MARSHALL: Can definately stay all day, but i question his class compared to his opposition. Back half finish. #12: JAMEKA: Havn't heard or read anyone saying this.... But could she be the next Makybe Diva?! Perhaps not quite that good, but is definately right up to winning a Melbourne Cup. Got thumped by Hartnell two back but in my opinion wasnt pushed that day she lost to him, he peaked and she didn't as she showed in the Caulfield Cup the run after. She went on to beat genuine Cup contenders easily in that next race, where Hartnell only just beat home a 3 yo filly in Yankee rose over 2040 and looked to be struggling with the distance. I believe Hartnell has peaked 2 starts back and believe Jameka's prep has been spot on perfect. Her Flemington form is impeccable, put another 5 or 600 metres on that race and their is no way Hartnell is running away from her like that. Her Crown Oaks run in 2014 was awesome. She has drawn perfectly in Barrier 3 to stalk the speed and she always puts herself in the race. Although history is against her with the weights, this is the most average looking Melbourne Cup field ive ever personally witnessed in my 10 or so years involved with racing. She will handle the 54.5 no worries and the weight advantage the other runners get on her won't cause her to finish behind them, except hopefully Exospheric! Ive almost talked myself into her again here! Clear 3rd pick for mine. #13: HEARTBREAK CITY: Very good 7yo with an electric turn of foot for a stayer. Best jockey in the world on board in Joao Moreira, and an awesome stable behind him. Same boat as Wicklow Brave., i believe he is well up to winning this race, but barrier 23 makes things so so hard. First four hope. #14: SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD: An 8yo thats never ran over the distance. He loves Flemington, but think Jameka has him covered. Could surprise me but. Back half finish. #15: EXCESS KNOWLEDGE: Ran a good arce in the cup last year, but just not same class. Back half finish. #16: BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE: Both Saaed runners are relativley unknown, and word has been kept fairly quiet at Werribee. Untapped potential and could run well. Top ten hope. #17: ALMANDIN: Horse has been spruiked and i'd say is the clear selection from the Mount Macedon team. Beat Protectionist the year he went on to win the Melbourne Cup. Had his fair share of issues judging by 2 years off but has come back well and obviously specifically set for this race. Monsun knows how to breed a winning son, and this could well be another. First four hope. #18: ASSIGN; Stablemate to Almandin and as stated previously i think he is the 2nd or even 3rd pick from the stable this time around. I think he could win next year if he shows up as a seven year old, but shouldnt be winning today with Katelyn Mallyon on jumping from 22. Top ten hope. #19: GREY LION: Form overseas isn't as good as some others, but looks to have travelled well judging by his effort in the Geelong cup. Personally not quite qure if he is up to these yet but Mat Cumani can train a stayer and wouldnt surprise. Top ten hope. #20: OCEANOGRAPHER; Talk around he may be scratched. If he is not he has to be a massive chance. Last two runs were yes very quick and is going into this off a 4 day back-up, nut to me it looked those races were not too hard on him and were really just a sprint home. He ran 56 seconds last 1000 and was the 2nd fastest horse ALL day over the last 200... In a 2500 metre race?! Thats freakish, and i hope he is scratched because he scares me a lot! First four hope. #21: SECRET NUMBER; The other Saeed runner, and personally the one i prefer from the two. Looks a serious talent and altough never running over 3200, he wouldnt surprise me winning this. Top ten hope. #22: PENTATHALON; From the great Wheeler stable. Great trainer but his horse will be outclassed here. Back half finish. #23: QEWY; Another hurdler from the Appleby stable with great staying credentials. What worries me are Charlie Appleby's comments pre coming over to Australia which stated he was bringing a team to test the waters., so maybe next year he will be a serious cup contender. This year seems like a lets just go with it sort of plan and think Qewy may fall into that catagory. Back half finish. #24: ROSE OF VIRGINIA; More of a winter campaigner for mine, and should be outclassed here. Back half finish. BONDI BEACH / EXOSPHERIC / JAMEKA
Cameron Rose
Expert
Interesting comment Jack. Not quite sure what to make of it.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All fair commentary Razzar. 10 years in a row and counting since a horse older than six won the Cup, and the last was Makybe Diva, so it's a reasonable theory to stick with.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think 15 of the last 30 Cup winners were coming of a win KV? It makes sense to stick with winning form in the Cup I reckon. Looking forward to reading your further thoughts!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Is that you, Tom Melbourne. Boy I thought you were home on Saturday. I didn't go the early crow at any stage, but I went very close.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Quality as always Andrew, we're on a few of the same, which always gives me some confidence. Most races have 6-8 legitimate chances I reckon.
Michael
Guest
Interesting you picked Hartnell to win the Cup. Isnt it the favourite?
Jack
Guest
I see you've let Hartnell go after he burnt you pretty bad in the Cox Plate. Or maybe Winx is just one of the best we have seen
Razzar
Guest
Good speed for Melb cup this year. The one risk I take is I never concider runners over the age of 6,, but it could happen this year. Settling midfield looks the best place to launch from. Hartnell can posie there, & has no weight to pose an issue. 5/1 rating. Exoshperic does too, land in similar spot, with cover can launch 7/1 rating. Bondi Beach is 5 now, keeping back from the leading bunch, he can figure. 9/1 rating. Big Orange, a tough campainer, should be up handy for a long time.11/1 rating. Jameka, has score on board, brr'r 3,, needs to work off into clear air, & wind up. 11/1 rating. Grey Lion,, liked his Geelong cup run,, Boss now takes over,, 25/1 rating. All the sprouk on Oceanographer has brought his price quotes as just big unders...11/1 for mine. Good luck punters
kv joef
Roar Guru
Nice work Cam, it is a golden rule about having your horse in vibrant, dominate form coming into the cup and your selections are hard to argue with with that maxim as a foundation. Oceanographer's 2 runs here have had serious contender written all over him - he was so good in Lexus. Big test for Jameka with the penalty but she is a terrific mare. Hartnell is weighted to win beyond wishful thinking but his 2 shots at the trip since his UK two-mile victory makes me doubt victory but he has to be thereabout. But i do like your inclusion of Wicklow Brave. Seems to have dodged the media radar but his trainer showed up last year with Max Dynamite and (San) Simenon before that (4th) - he doesn't waste his time putting them on a plane unless they are ready to go. but i'll have a think and post more on TR's piece ...
Johnybulldog
Guest
Cheers andrew good luck mate
Tom M
Guest
Like Falcool EW in Race 5. Has been strong and was flying home 2 weeks ago at the valley.
andrew
Guest
Madeneety should be winning, but taking $1.60 on a 2yo down the straight as race 1 of 10 on cup day is not my punting profile. Maybe have it in a multi in the hope it might save you having to back something else later on. Im a bit against those up in the weights who are just going ok form wise in races where several have jumped from lower grade to run well (ie, st swithiuns). Like model dragon as a horse long term, profile may go up a notch on tuesday. Really dynamic win last start in a decent BM64, 2nd and 3rd are horses with city/group form. Looked in all sorts of bother, but it put them away in the blink of an eye. Stokes might have a smart one here, and whilst the rise in grade is sharp, she stays on limit weight, goes up in distance and is unbeaten. Every time an international runs in a staying race this spring, the locals get a hiding, especially in these lower tier staying races. For that reason, i find the price on kinema quite generous. Run in the geelong cup was very good. You can line up all i survey into several of these, and kinema beat it easy in the geelong cup. Of course oceanographer since run well from geelong cup and is one of fave for melb cup. I think the barrier and weight are over influencing its prices, in deference to what are a quite modest bunch of locals as rivals. They went up $19 lucky liberty and i know a few people got a piece of this, myself included, which was a bookie error and he clearly has a good hope and is classy horse. But demonstrate has to be main play here, been wisely dropped back a rung and built confidence with some good wins at lower level, and this is natural stepping stone. Tough race, but i will pluck amanaat who did it easy on debut and put away and resumes here. From a very strong family of sprinters including rocket man and drawn in a good speed and has good early speed and well known i like the onpacers in the 1000m straight races. Usually when a horse resumes at the back end of carnival, its well forward and ready to go. Toughest race of day with several coming off messy race at caul and others from muddling race at valley. No firm view. Prob just default to the snowden runners in my county and quick feet for an interest. No really firm view in the cup. I think the market is about right. Im with oceanographer ew. Sometimes seeing is believing. I was really keen tom melb on sat, and it took a huge effort to run him down. I think it was a ‘good’ quality lexus this year. Only flying artie ran a quicker last 200m of the 200 plus (high quality) horses who ran on sat at flem. Smothered up and let rip like that with 52kgs, it will take a good one to beat it. Of course, you can line up the international form and deduce his is inferior, but we have seen him in the flesh here and we know he is obviously thriving. Some query about running derby day and backing up in eyes of some. Yet, not long ago if you didn’t run derby day the same query was posed in reverse !!. Its neither here nor there for me. No knock hartnell, deserve fave. If you excuse winx, he comes in as a cox plate and turnball winner, that has not been rehandicapped for either. One day an import will win it again first up, and when they do, i will lose, but at present its something like 95 odd runners since vintage crop and all have been beat, that statistic has enough depth to it for me to influence my wagers. Keen to be against fabrizio here. Atleast at current price at $2.50 which is poison. Love betting against gai horses who are asked to race tough on speed at the back end of their preps. 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th from its last win have all flopped since. I wouldn’t be placing much weight on its last win when dictacted in a small and weak field. 6th run this prep, first go beyond a mile, first go travelling. Id want $8 to play. So, where is the value......well, i think the rest are all marked about 1-2pts of value each. No clear standout. Race certain to be run at strong speed, so looking for horses who have shown form up to 2000m. Turnitaround was huge run 1st up, working and facing the breeze, clearly his best ever 1st up run, and obv set for this race, given his super form at flem. Barrier only negative,but does have speed around him, and i think fast tempo will create gaps to slot in. Plot the course is another who doesn’t draw ideally, but last win was very strong, showed a good change up speed from looking in trouble at 500m to surge. Lidari and closing bell both respected. Playing this race around the fave with principally turnitaround and plot the course but also lidari and closing bell Not sure if sir bachuss gets scr for greys race on thurs at present. But backing ruitegger either way. But confidence levels go up if these rivals don’t run. Top run 1st up at caul in a very unsuitable race weight scale wise (gets 4.5kgs swing on fatinaah) and much higher class race, had to keep baulking to get a run and let down strong once got clear. Wanst expected to win, but stable would have been very pleased. Publicly stated has been set for this race and a peak run can be expected, of a career best 1st up run. William reunites with the horse and his only ride on it was a win down straight over voodoo lad in winter. No knock ravi who is clear 2nd pick after super run at caul and will be having saver/quin/quads with it in. Pretty keen silent sedition who is very consistent 4yo. Was her own worst enemy as a spring 3yo, but got her race manners together in autumn with a very good prep. That included a 2nd up win (as she is here) over 1400m against the boys in the bend guins (handy types such as oddesy moon and tivaci behind her). Top return first up at cual in a race i thought would be too short, where she gave shiedel 1kg and really made her work. Williams knows the horse well and she draws for a perfect run right on the speed. Williams did win this race last year with scarlett billows (trivial factor). She goes to perth to run in railway hcp for this and youd need a win her to warrant that trip and think she can deliver. I think her current form and overall form make her a bit of standout. Seems like she will be good odds too, with egyptian symbol sure to have admirers who won well 1st up but jumps in weight, draws really wide, beaten both runs beyond 1200m and two horses (run to rule and saveroux) she beat got towelled up by shiedel on sat. Be pretty disappointed if you missed ew on silent sedition. Best: model dragon, sildent sedition EARLY QUAD : pass QUAD (within 100 combos, well, 108 is best I can do on cup day, but if sir bachuss is scr then its 72 combos and you could fatten it back out with a few more imports in the cup) 1, 4, 6, 13, 17, 20 2, 4, 5, 10, 13, 17 9, 11, 13 3