Since professionalism was ushered into rugby in 1996 the game has undoubtedly seen enormous change. From the way the game is played to the way the game is administered the game is vastly different to the one we knew before the advent of professionalism.
Through changing times one thing has remained fundamentally constant. The domination of the Southern Hemisphere ‘superpowers’ as the Northern Hemisphere likes to label them, the former Tri Nations triumvirate of New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.
Sure there have been moments that have upset the applecart such as England’s stranglehold on power in 2002 and 2003, but these have proved mere blips in an otherwise constant landscape of domination. In fact, that same England side remain the only non SANZAR nation to win a rugby world cup. That’s right the world cup ledger reads SANZAR 7 versus 1 to the rest, which is comprehensive to say the least.
And strangely despite the continued domination of the south over the north at last year’s world cup where the semi-finals were entirely made up of Rugby Championship participants, it seems there may be cause to consider that we may finally be witnessing a turning of the tide for the long-suffering north.
One only needs to look at the English series whitewash of Australia and the Irish Test victory over South Africa earlier this year as pointers to a possible pendulum swing. Of course the All Blacks need to be left out of the argument, so far ahead of the rest of the pack are they that for the purposes of this article we need to look at the international game as being made up of the All Blacks and the rest.
One has to ask the question of this All Black dominance though, how much of it is down to the outright excellence of the current All Black squad and how much of it is down to the outright weakness of their traditional rivals? There is no doubt about it, this All Black side is truly outstanding and has a strong claim to being the greatest side in Test history. However, so poor have the Wallabies and Springboks been this year that could their current dominance be aided by the complete weakness and the diabolical state of their traditional rivals at present?
Two games in particular stand out as showing just how far backwards the All Blacks traditional foes – constantly the world’s number two and three ranked sides I must add – have gone. The first game dates back to the opening Bledisloe Cup fixture of the year and watching the Wallabies perform with a complete lack of confidence, street smartness and ability.
It was hard to believe that this was a rematch of the previous years world cup final such was the difference in class between the two sides. Body language in sport often says it all and the Wallabies that day displayed all the signs of a team with no clue and absolutely no self-confidence.
The second game occurred just weeks ago as the All Blacks gave a shellacking to the Sprinkboks in Durban. As an All Black fan it was a performance for the ages, destroying their nemesis by nine tries to nil, certainly something not to be taken lightly. Through the joyous celebration however one couldn’t help but wonder what on earth had happened to South African rugby.
This wasn’t the Springboks that we had grown up fearing and admiring, certainly not one you associated with such limp and pathetic performances as the one we saw that day.
There is no doubt that both sides are at or close to rock bottom in terms of where they are. The calibre of players is obviously a big issue. We are used to looking at the team sheets for both sides and seeing names of world class performers which certainly doesn’t seem to be the case so often any more.
The fact that Rob Simmons, perhaps the worst international second row in the game, has notched up close to 70 Test caps says it all about the current state of Australian rugby.
And so on to the European tours they go. The Wallabies are talking about a Grand Slam but frankly the chances of that are about the same as the aforementioned Rob Simmons one day being inducted into the International Rugby Hall of Fame.
The Springboks too face an arduous time with England, Italy and Wales, hardly a fixture list to send shivers up the spines of Springbok sides of old, but this team is not the Springboks as we know them.
Is this the end of the Southern Hemisphere stranglehold? The next four weeks will be very revealing.
Zack
Roar Rookie
Top 10 from the World Rugby ranking, which coincidentally comprises 5 x NH and 5 x SH teams: SH 1: NZ 3 Australia 3 SA 9: Argentina 10 Fiji NH 2: England 5 Wales 6 Ireland 7 France 8 Scotland Head-to-head makes the results even more convincingly in favour of SH.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Or put in other words, one of the only two countries with a good talent pool, England (France the other), just hired a southern hemisphere coach.....
Taniwha
Roar Rookie
No facts Matt, it just doesn't make sense to me. This will be the first time since moving here in 1986 that I haven't been unable to watch the ABs live, so i'm not happy. I only have fox because of the rugby and while I do watch other sports, union is by far my first choice. I honestly don't watch much else on tv because not a fan of it. Matt, I just find it frustrating that for the first time in 30yrs an ABs match is not been televised in Australia.
Derm
Roar Guru
Nope - that's not a measure at all since the sides play each other which affects points. What 5 teams did you pick from each hemisphere? Who did they play? How often? Head to head is the best indicator.
Fracktobunt
Roar Rookie
Taniwha, you're entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that I get an amazing variety of international sport on my Foxtel. However im not privileged to know how much money the Irish and Kiwi administrators are asking for to purchase the rights. Do you know this? obviously Foxtel are a commercial entity and if it doesn't make commercial sense to televise the program then they won't. Are you suggesting that the good people at Foxtel have not done their research and have made an error in cost vs viewers? If you have some facts to support your opinion then I would be happy to agree.
Taniwha
Roar Rookie
Of the 650,000 kiwis living in Oz how many do you think would want to watch the ABs v Ireland? Then consider the Irish expats and every other rugby fan that would watch just because it's the ABs. We do tend to play an attractive style of rugby that most sports fans enjoy watching. I'm pretty sure ABs v Ireland would rate higher than the Indian football, England v Scotland in RL, Pakistan v WI and India v NZ in cricket, college football, euro basketball etc etc etc. Matt, IMO I agree with Sam
Dan
Guest
Let us see more NH wins in 2016 through to 2020 before we start talking about SH superiority changing hands.
Onside
Guest
Agree with you Fionn, just a bit of tongue in cheek observation about how Oz needs as much help as we can get.
Zack
Roar Rookie
You might have a better chance of convincing anyone of the mythical "waning" of SH rugby, by averaging out the World Rugby Ranking points of the 5 SH teams and 5 NH teams in the top-10. October 2016 SH Average: 84.51 NH Average: 82.97 October 2015 SH Average: 83.7 NH Average: 82.08 looking at these stats, the SH have improved their WR Ranking points over 1 year by 1.14, while the NH have improved by only 0.89. Yep, I can see where the SH Rugby performance is "waning"!! It's a stupid baseless conclusion by the author.
Derm
Roar Guru
T-man. the semis have had NH teams before this so it's not really a measure. As you rightly said in another post, it's somewhat dependent on the draw. I agree win more tests in the southern tours, but my question is how many? Historical domination takes a long time to shift. for example, Ireland are 0 for 7 against Australia in the professional era. Would they have to get to parity before domination was deemed to have waned? They have a 3-test series against Aus in 2018. If they were to win that series, would that be an indicator? To date, only England, France and Ireland have shown some level of winning against the 4 RC teams. Irl v NZ excepted. The removal of NZ stats is a red herring. It's only relevant when clumping results of the four teams together. There isn't an equivalent NH side with the same kind of domination that NZ uniquely has in world rugby. Looking at individual head to heads is the only way to assess this issue really. And what minimum time period and/or number of matches is necessary to properly assess whether win/loss patterns have changed between teams.
Phantom
Roar Rookie
In a similar way to that in which Tiger Woods once dominated world golf. At his peak it was a race for second place most of the time and the gap in the official world rankings between first and second was similarly large. Critics lament the standard of the rest of the worlds rugby teams but in my view it is simply the All Blacks are doing a Tiger Woods. Let's hope the future of NZ rugby does not follow in the footsteps of the TW demise.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Well I'd first of all you'd have to get more than none in the semis of the premier event, the World cup. All three of those so called waning ones were all there. Second, you'd have to at least win most tests in the southern tours. Referring to the top three or four from the NH versus the top four SH sides if course. I don't think that's ever happened, once. Third, you'd have to win more in the northern tours of the same. Has that ever happened? Of course you could take NZ out, but to be fair you'd have to take the top NH side out. I mean if you didn't you'd be comparing firsts against seconds, thirds against seconds kind if thing.
Yeah that would be sad to see, the little intellectual property we do have left must be retained at all cost
Derm
Roar Guru
i wonder how many games/years would it take to get agreement that domination is waning with the three SH teams of South Africa, Australia and Argentina? What does consistently mean? How many matches/wins would it take? Would it have to change the win/loss record to 50% before you could say that domination has waned? I think New Zealand should have its own elevated category given its results - Another Higher Southern Hemispehre International Team.... :). It's probably what most fans say/think when they've beaten their team - again.
Derm
Roar Guru
Hey Biltong. The author of the article asked a question about whether SH dominance was waning and saying that things might change this November tour this year. I've just provided what the records are of SH teams in November because the running assumption is that the SH teams win as usual in November. They do against some teams,they don't against others. I was pointing out what the records actually are. So including June tours is not as relevant. And I'd totally agree with you that NH teams win record on the road in 3 out of 4 of the RC countries is poor.
kelefua
Guest
The dominance will wane when the Northern teams consistently beat all the SANZAR teams at their southern grounds. World Cups won.. South 7 / North 1
hopalong
Guest
Your post says it all.
Pinetree
Guest
The skills and conditioning in the Lions and Sharks have been good this year, and in the case of the lions, they were obviously at a very high level, hence why they made the final, beating 2 competitive NZ sides in the playoffs at home in a convincing manner. it is bizarre that Coetzee would blame the franchises for the lack of skills and conditioning, rather than look at the mirror at his own short comings. Stick has been poor as a backline coach as well, and has been as clueless as he was with the Kings. Very odd appointment. It is sad to see that the politics are getting in the way of appointment on merit, and I hope Ackerman is not lost to SA before it is too late...
Fracktobunt
Roar Rookie
Who's freaking out? It's a blog to discuss and debate a topic. In fact Poth Ale has brought some damn good humour to it as well.
lewismarsh
Roar Rookie
The point of the article seems to be exploring the premis that its the AB and then daylight to the tight clump behind. dont freak out guys.