Australia’s richest horse race has been taken out by Almandin taking out the 2016 Melbourne Cup in a tight finish, over Heartbreak City.
It was a spine-tingling finish with a great call by Greg Miles, who was a winner when having to call 24 horses and nine of them in similar colours.
As we know, Almandin was the winner – etching his name into history, and the Lloyd Williams legend grows stronger, picking up home racing’s most sought after cup (along with a tidy $3.6 million in prizemoney).
But in any race with such a big field, as well as so much expectation and hope riding on the hard work and investment of many, there is always a string of under (and over) performers.
Let’s take a look at some of 2016’s biggest winners and losers.
Winners: Almandin and Team Williams
The Lloyd Williams stable does it again. It’s their Cup, for the fifth time. They won with Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985), Efficient (2007), and Green Moon (2012).
How do they do it? It’s a relentless approach to winning the big one. The team don’t mind winning other races through the season but they focus on the Cup.
It’s expensive, it’s single-minded and it’s been devastatingly effective. Punters know that if they’ve backed a Lloyd Williams horse they’re in with a chance. The only problem is that he always more than one runner which does make it hard.
Winner: Jockey Kerrin McEvoy
McEvoy gave his mount every chance. If you get a chance to watch a replay after the hubub has died down, you’ll watch him position his mount just worse than midfield, glide along and pull out just at the right time. His urgings down the straight got the horse home over Heartbreak City.
Of course, you can say he kept the Cup in the family with his sister-in-law, Michelle Payne, winning last year.
Winners: Punters and form experts
After last year’s $101 winner that put the egg on the face of punters and form experts alike, the winner this year in Almandin was tipped by racing’s form experts and backed in the markets as well.
You just know I’m going to say
Almandin was my tip on The Roar, don’t you!
The favourite in Hartnell was third and had his chance as well, not quite finishing out the last 250m. Punters who were on him had every chance and might’ve got their money back if they backed him each-way.
Bookmakers will have taken a hit on the race as punters got one back after last year.
Winner: German sire Mosun
All hail this German stallion, who’s sired three winners in the last few years: Fiorente (2013) and Protectionist (2014) and now Almandin. His progeny just had a zero added to their value for Australian owners looking to buy a horse for a Cup!
Middle-distance horses that couldn’t stay
The race tempo was significant enough to make this a true staying test. The winners and the top finishers came from the back. Who Shot Thebarman was flat last for much of the trip and finished right there – he’s one of our most well-known stayers and he got the trip properly.
Those that folded included Jameka, who couldn’t get the trip. She’s still a great Australian mare but a truly run Cup did look tough.
Losers: International horses without a run in Australia
It’s astonishing how close Heartbreak City was to winning. Joao Moreira gave it a wonderful chance and it was so close to holding off the faster finishing Almandin.
But yet again, the international horses got close. Yet again, they couldn’t win.
Heartbreak City was second without a run and was brilliant, but would he have won if he’d had a run before hand?
Qewy finished in fourth and had a run in the Cup beforehand, but you’d have to say that horse looked like he needed it.
Once again, it’s easy to say that this strategy failed. It was oh so close, but punters who use the rule that you can’t win if you don’t have a run in Australia before the Cup got it right again. Just.
Losers: Godolphin stable
The might of the global Godolphin operation, the world’s biggest stable, couldn’t do it in the Melbourne Cup yet again.
They did grab third and fourth which is a huge amount of prizemoney, so it’s not like it was a complete failure for the operation.
But with five horses in the race – a record number for the stable in any race around the world – and all of them given different preparations, they just didn’t figure strongly enough.
Hartnell – brave in third
Qewy – did well to hold onto fourth
Beautiful Romance – surprised with 7th
Oceanographer – disappointed in 12th but pulled up lame
Secret Number – 21st after leading and falling away.
Loser: Frankie Dettori
Poor Frankie. He came over for his 15th Cup and went home empty handed on Wicklow Brave. That horse was drawn widest in barrier 24. While you could say that wrote off his chances, Heartbreak City drew right next to him in barrier 23 and was second. Dettori and Wicklow Brave were 22nd.
It’ll be another long flight home for the great jockey who just can’t seem to get the luck he needs in Australia in the Cup.
DrGeorge
Roar Rookie
Congratulations on the Almandin tip, Tristan! Bask in the glory for the next 12 months - you and the team have earned it :)
kv joef
Roar Guru
group hug - NB closest :)
nadineB
Guest
I know your sadness is profound. I / we miss you.
nadineB
Guest
don't forget the running song old fella ... your theme song ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQCcHSRys7Q
sevens
Guest
hey joey, is california chrome going to dance the tango this weekend. bet he is. :-) and is chrissie mcvie have the last laugh in the distaff. glad to have you back.
Matty Kees
Guest
Tell you something Sam, I think you will find in the last four years he has tipped fiorente and protectionist and this year, almandin, here and I can assure you in the preceding 15 years he also managed to find, who knows 9/10 winners. you australians take so much pride in picking the winner of this race. when are you going to come out of your cave old man. why don't you teach the kid how to gamble like you did for us. get rid of the meyer lansky image on your avatar. you are missed.
JoM
Guest
I did but had Hartnell and Heartbreak City 1st and Hartnell and the bloody winner second along with Qewy and all for 3rd and 4th.
ethan
Guest
Agreed, sensational ride from a wide barrier to get in that position.
nigel brown
Roar Rookie
JoM Iam a loser also, just wish the wife would stop reminding me
kv joef
Roar Guru
Go on you Sam, you get the cred for courage :) . Yes the afterglow of big wins is adrenalin soaked (or more accurate dopamine fuelled) and a gambler thinks his luck will continue to be ... anyway you know dopamine effects the way you think. many punters need to put in place personal strategies that defeat this rush while not deflating the high. You are right in not wanting to waste good fortune. When i was young and went through so many pauper/prince cycles i care not to remember a close friend suggested i try a strategy 2500 years old ... don't laugh ... it's true but i was so sick of things. the strategy comes from the Gautama Buddha (the Buddha) and yes it was directly about money management ... Divide your money into 4 parts. Part One belongs to you for your enjoyment. Part Two belongs to your business, to grow your working capital and offer you the potential to grow your business Part Three for reinvestment elsewhere to continue to grow your wealth. Part Four is to be put aside for unforeseen events - business or otherwise (a rainy day). works a treat :)
Sam T
Guest
Thanks very much kv joef and the roar tipsters. KV, I had one of my biggest wins ever after your Winx article and your other comments about Hatrnell and Almandin having race weights below their real rating. Every story i read where you were commenting you were pushing Almandin going back over a week. Then Tristan's formguide was excellent and also tipping Almandin, I had to have a bet. So thanks everybody. Also, usually, after having a good win i end up giving it back to them. Do you have any advice for someone like me that may help and please consider writing more about reading the form and betting in general. There is so much stuff around it makes your head spin. PS anything else for the carnival?
Jack
Guest
Moreira I think showed why he is the best. From barrier 23 finds a beautiful spot and then finds his way onto the back of Hartnell from the 600, did everything perfectly except win. Class act.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Well done Tristan ... doing the form thoroughly always has benefits ... now or but more importantly in the future :) . what a wonderful cup ... on so many levels. two G1 jockeys, riding two game G1 horses perfectly, fighting out a G1 finish. an added bonus was Hartnell running to his form and surely proved the Cox Plate quality and therefore Winx's elite IFHA mark. i was horrified when they dawdled down the straight but from there on it was game on and as you watched brave horses fall away in the straight and determined courage show it's true colours in others. And on top of it all ... Who Shot the Barman coming home like train. He truly should be remembered as one of the gamest cup horses of all.
Jim
Guest
Unlucky JoM - in the big races, always worth boxing it (or playing with a roving banker) - I thought about chucking Qewy in the first 4, but opted against my better judgement to put in Oceanographer.
Jim
Guest
Winner - for once me! While I had backed Heartbreak City each way, I'd also had the exacta 2.5x and the Trifecta 2.5x - the last after a fateful decision at lunchtime to go and have the combo for 200%, on top of the wider trifecta I'd taken at 50% of the dividend earlier in the day! So very happy days for me yesterday, although could of been a little more sweeter had heartbreak city found a way to hang on :) First win I've had on the cup for years, so can't complain!!!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Great analysis Tristan...go Almandin!
JoM
Guest
I'm a loser. I picked the first 4 and bet on it but had 1st and 2nd the wrong way around.
Scuba
Guest
After the last three years, I'm thrilled that there was a relatively trouble free race and that all of the runners get to go back to their stables tonight safe and well. The finish reminded me of Delta Blues and Pop Rock a decade ago, who exploded away causing everyone to predict a Japanese domination going forward, which hasn't happened. Sometimes two horses are just that much better than the others - the connections of Heartbreak City must be wondering how far their horse would have won by in many many years
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Let us know your hunch before the race next year!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I'll see you at the bar! :D