“It is particularly incumbent on those who never change their opinion, to be secure of judging properly at first.”
As I cast back my mind over this year’s internationals two words come to mind: Pride and Prejudice.
From what I have observed and pondered this applies both Cheika and the Wallabies fans.
Cheika from refusing to see his selections and game plan isn’t working and the pride that stopped him from making adjustments quick enough. Cheika for his prejudice to experience, regardless of actual performance and current form, over obvious talent waiting and proven performance in Super Rugby waiting to be given a chance.
To the fans with so many just focusing on parochial state issues and the states players come from. Their pride in refusing to acknowledge when players have proven them wrong. In giving begrudging acknowledgement when a player from a state disliked has played very well to condemnation over the most minor mistakes.
Thankfully I believe the player ratings as voted on after each Test give a better more balanced view of the players than either Cheika and his stubborn selections or of the unappeasable fans with their voracious and passionate posts.
I have compiled and analysed all the ratings of the players for games where players played at least 40 mins. Players making an impact for 20 mins play is not a fair comparison and thus I left these cameo performances out. The players must have started for at least four games.
I will present the average scores for each section of internationals and a running John Eales Medal if voted 3,2,1.
The June Tests against England
The best players
The two highest rated forwards (minimum two games) were Michael Hooper and Sean McMahon.
The two highest rated backs (minimum two games) were Israel Folau and Samu Kerevi.
The scores for the series
The average scores of the player ratings (averages and modes) were
Scott Sio (5 , 5)
James Slipper (5 , 5)
Stephen Moore (4 , 4.3)
Sekope Kepu (5 , 5)
Rory Arnold (5 , 5)
Kane Douglas N/A
Rob Simmons (4.6 , 4.7)
Adam Coleman (5.7 , 6)
Dean Mumm N/A
Scott Fardy (4.9 , 5)
Michael Hooper (6.4 , 6.7)
David Pocock (7 , 7)
Sean McMahon (6 , 6)
Lopeti Timani N/A
Will Genia N/A
Nick Phipps (3.7 , 3.7)
Bernard Foley (5 , 5.3)
Quade Cooper N/A
Henry Speight N/A
Reece Hodge N/A
Samu Kerevi (6.9 , 7)
Tevita Kuridrani (5.5 , 5.7)
Dane Haylett-Petty (6 , 6.3)
Israel Folau (7.5 , 7.7)
The John Eales Medal Leaderboard
Israel Folau
Samu Kerevi
Michael Hooper
Synopsis
Only the loose forwards and outside backs scored well.
The Rugby Championship and third Bledisloe
The best players
The two highest rated forwards (minimum two games) were Lopeti Timani and Sean McMahon.
The two highest rated backs (minimum two games) were Will Genia and Samu Kerevi.
The scores for the series
The average scores of the player ratings (averages and modes) were
Scott Sio (5.3 , 5.9)
James Slipper N/A
Stephen Moore (4.6 , 4.6)
Sekope Kepu (5.3 , 5.6)
Rory Arnold (5.9 , 6.5)
Kane Douglas (4.7 , 5.3)
Rob Simmons (4.7 , 5)
Adam Coleman (6.2 , 6.7)
Dean Mumm (4.6 , 5.2)
Scott Fardy (4.8 , 5)
Michael Hooper (5.8 , 6.1)
David Pocock (5.8 , 5.7)
Sean McMahon (6.6 , 6.5)
Lopeti Timani (6.4 , 7)
Will Genia (7.2 , 7.5)
Nick Phipps (5.5 , 7)
Bernard Foley (5 , 5.4)
Quade Cooper (6.2 , 6.4)
Henry Speight (5.2 , 6)
Reece Hodge (6 , 6.2)
Samu Kerevi (6.3 , 6.4)
Tevita Kuridrani (3.6 , 4)
Dane Haylett-Petty (5.8 , 6.1)
Israel Folau (5.4 , 5.4)
The John Eales Medal Leaderboard
Will Genia
Israel Folau
Samu Kerevi
Synopsis
Most players retain the same form which by and large is average. The same players are persisted with for a long time, except in the locks, and when new players are finally brought in they perform better.
Arnold and Phipps have significantly improved their form. Phipps from dreadful to solid.
Folau and Kuridrani’s form has dropped.
The European Spring Tour
The best players
The two highest rated forwards (minimum two games) were David Pocock and Lopeti Timani.
The two highest rated backs (minimum two games) were Dane Haylett-Petty and Tevita Kuridrani.
The scores for the series
The average scores of the player ratings (averages and modes) were
Scott Sio (6 , 6.3)
James Slipper (4.1 , 4)
Stephen Moore (6 , 6.2)
Sekope Kepu (6.1 , 6.3)
Rory Arnold (6.6 , 7)
Kane Douglas (5.3 , 5.3)
Rob Simmons (5.5 , 5.8)
Adam Coleman (7.8 , 8)
Dean Mumm (3.1 , 3)
Scott Fardy (6.2 , 6.5)
Michael Hooper (6.2 , 7)
David Pocock (7.1 , 7.4)
Sean McMahon (7 , 7)
Lopeti Timani (6.7 , 7)
Will Genia (6.6 , 6.7)
Nick Phipps (4.8 , 4.5)
Bernard Foley (6.3 , 6.8)
Quade Cooper N/A
Henry Speight (4.9 , 5)
Sefa Naivalu (6.6 , 6.5)
Reece Hodge (6.1 , 6)
Samu Kerevi N/A
Tevita Kuridrani (6.6 , 7)
Dane Haylett-Petty (6.9 , 7.5)
Israel Folau (6.4 , 7)
The John Eales Medal Leaderboard for the Calendar Year
Will Genia
Israel Folau
Dane Haylett-Petty
Synopsis
Nearly every player improves in form with a notable exception of Will Genia whose form drops significantly from very high heights. Kuridrani’s form was the most improved.
Nearly every selection is vindicated by the performances produced with a couple of glaring exceptions which the roar posters have identified for a long time.
Timani and Fardy should have been picked ahead of Mumm, and similarly with Naivalu ahead of Speight based on the performances prior to the spring tour and the performances on the spring tour.
Year in Summary
The best players
The two highest rated forwards (minimum four games) were David Pocock and Lopeti Timani.
The two highest rated backs (minimum four games) were Will Genia and Samu Kerevi.
The scores for the year
The average scores of the player ratings (averages and modes) were
Scott Sio (5.5 , 5.9)
James Slipper (4.7 , 4.6)
Stephen Moore (4.9 , 5)
Sekope Kepu (5.5 , 5.7)
Rory Arnold (5.9 , 6.3)
Kane Douglas (5 , 5.3)
Rob Simmons (5 , 5.2)
Adam Coleman (6.3 , 6.8)
Dean Mumm (4.4 , 4.9)
Scott Fardy (5.2 , 5.4)
Michael Hooper (6 , 6.5)
David Pocock (6.7 , 6.8)
Sean McMahon (6.4 , 6.4)
Lopeti Timani (6.6 , 7)
Will Genia (7 , 7.2)
Nick Phipps (4.5 , 4.9)
Bernard Foley (5.5 , 5.9)
Quade Cooper (6.2 , 6.4)
Henry Speight (4.9 , 5.2)
Sefa Naivalu (6.6 , 6.5)
Reece Hodge (6 , 6.1)
Samu Kerevi (6.5 , 6.6)
Tevita Kuridrani (5.9 , 6.2)
Dane Haylett-Petty (6.2 , 6.6)
Israel Folau (6.1 , 6.4)
Synopsis
The starting props are just above parity. There is no doubt Sio is better than Slipper. Allan Alaalatoa seems to be a prospect for either side and perhaps considering Kepu’s age is better used as a THP.
With Slipper out of form a new LHP is needed urgently. Holmes loss was a significant impact, thus allowing Alaalatou to focus on the LHP side.
Moore had a forgettable season he needs to be replaced as captain forth with since he should not be certain of his place. He failed as a captain, the team did not change tactics on the field when the Plan A was not working and he did not work with referees well.
I would replace him as hooker since both Toutai Polotau-Nau and Tolu Latu provided more off the bench.
In the locks there are two above average performers in Coleman and Arnold but then the quality drops off significantly. More depth is needed here. I would look to more new blood since the current backups are average performers as their scores indicate.
No surprise that the best performed forwards were the loose trio. A major issue was that the most consistent one, Lopeti Timani, was left to languish behind Dean Mumm and to a lesser extent Scott Fardy.
Dean Mumm was not that far behind Fardy that Mumm being selected over Fardy was not outrageous.
A proper six or eight needs to be unearthed otherwise McMahon another seven will start with Hooper next year.
It is line ball which openside should have started all games this year and so it is next year however I remain firm in my belief that the backrow being unbalanced hurts more than the benefit the small increase in individual performance provides by selecting two starting opensides.
Will Genia was the best player of the year exemplified by his score and by being the best on field the most often despite missing so many games. The biggest issue was his backup was the worst performed back for the year. This hurt the Wallabies significantly.
One of the biggest ongoing battles on the roar pages is which flyhalf should start. Quade Cooper comes out marginally ahead. However it should be noted that Foley flew to greater heights and plumbed lower depths, Cooper was more consistent.
The difference in performance between the two does not seem to warrant the amount of comments written by them and with Foley being the goal kicker it Cheika’s ongoing selection of Foley can be justified.
However I will further conflagrate it by saying Cooper provides more variations and options and thus the possibility of executing more than just a Plan A and thus should be starting. That does pose the question of a good reliable goal kicker though.
On the surface Kerevi, the second best performed back, being injured did not impact the Wallabies much since Kuridrani stepped up and played almost as well. But au contraire.
Hodge was not a success at 12, poor hands, poor distribution, and played better on the wing. He averaged 6.5 on the wing and 5.5 at 12. Kerevi at 12 would have been a far better choice, better runner and distributor. However would Cheika have pushed Kerevi to 12 since up to that point Kuridrani was not in good form?
Outside centre is an area of strength and served well with Kerevi and Kuridrani.
On the wing persisting with Speight was an error on Cheika’s part. Naivalu should have been used earlier especially since Speight has never had a strong Test prior to this year, was not in good form at Super Rugby and did not perform well in sevens.
Speight defending in the front line, replacing the injured Rob Horne in that role, would have been the reason. This is caused by another flaw with Nathan Grey’s defensive pattern requiring so many moving parts and a winger selected for his defence.
Naivalu, surprising no one, defends at least as well as Speight , however is a lot better attacker. I hope that Horne is not returned in that spot next year for the sake of his defence. The defensive patterns is at fault and needs to change.
The other winger, Dane Haylett-Petty was one of the best performed backs. A real find getting better and better as he gained experienced. I personally thought he received scores that were too high when his defence was poor, out of position and missing many tackles.
Folau had a solid year, started very well, an up and down Rugby Championship and then back in form on the Spring tour. I personally think fans expect so much of him that he is marked down compared to other players despite having performances and statistics that are better.
The major question remains is where should he be played. Folau could play at 12, 13 or 14.
Haylett-Petty should be moved to full back since he would make a significantly better full back than winger.
13 is well served as previously noted so I do not see any benefit of moving Folau there.
12 is a weak position , so much so I see Cheika bringing Beale back to play 12. The other alternatives like Hodge, Kerevi, Foley all have significant drawbacks. If Cooper or one of the back three was a good goalkicker then I would choose Kerevi at 12 and Cooper at 10.
Overall Folau is a good choice at wing especially if attacking high kicks to his wing are brought back in. This variation goes missing far too often when Foley is at 10.
I look forward to next year to see which new players can step up from NRC in Super Rugby and other existing Super Rugby players. The window for them being chosen is closing.
I believe by the end of next year the window will be closed for any new blood and Cheika will stick with squad he has for the following two years leading to the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Next year in many ways is a make or break year for the Wallabies.
So if this year was about Pride and Prejudice then next year will be about For Whom the Bell Tolls.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Peter, nice article. Pack will be more competitive and depth next year. re 10. As long as QC plays well for the Reds I'm happy. Check will decide whatever he wants Happy for DHP he's an excellent player.
Doubles
Guest
As Machooka stated on another thread. Twas has more than likely found his station ( terminus) and is currently undergoing a grease and oil change.. He`ll be back
Terry
Guest
We shall see PeterK if Coleman can continue the momentum. Will he succumb to second year syndrome?? I hope he doesn`t. .Simmons has the runs on the board for a long time. Coleman hasn't .. He is GREAT prospect though..
Fishboy
Guest
Agree Peter, raw data is best for analysis, and maybe reporting percentiles? That way the very low and very high can be removed. Whereas there seems to be a common thought that the 1s and 2s and the 8s and 9s reflect state/player bias, they could actually be earnest opinions. Customer surveys are often less informative, as people "don't want to be rude", and give everything a 6, such that a 5 becomes terrible and a 7 great. Maybe a clearer set of marking instructions, and the panel concurrently ranking players to provide some objectivity would help? Staring down the void of no rugby till February, frankly I'd take any game at the moment. Time to get the tape out of The Greatest Game Ever Played, aka 2000 Bledisloe!
soapit
Guest
id go kepu for a year or two. he's going to be there for sure. while coleman had a good year id like to see whether he has any second year syndrome before elevating him. plus kepus not too young so we wont be locked into a choice that wasnt necessarily ideal for yonks
soapit
Guest
this sort of system would be a better way of awarding the jem than the current system. it forces each player performance to be evaluated individually rather than just picking who caught the eye of the most people and ends up just being the backrower of the year award.
ethan
Guest
We will lock you in a room with chains until you get it done ;)
Harry Jones
Expert
Good chat, that
rebel
Guest
Good piece, very well put together. Results feel about right from my viewing perspective.
PeterK
Roar Guru
easy for you to say, you don't have to do the research and analysis and then make a rudimentary attempt at making it both illuminating and thought provoking :)
ethan
Guest
Coaches analysis would definitely be worthy of an article. And good timing for some off season reading material. Perhaps The Old Man and The Sea. Trying so hard to catch that big Marlin but copping it from all angles.
handles
Guest
So he made more tackles and passed more often than any other tight forward, missed fewer tackles than any other forward, and ran more than any other front rower. I forgot your point.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Coleman is the best all round lock since he can do all roles well or better including being a power lock hitting with impact. Coleman calls lineouts. Good in the scrum. Plays 80 mins. High workrate. Hits with force.
hugo au gogo
Guest
With regards to the lineout problem, perhaps there is some out of the square thinking required (or more). The Waratahs some years back had Chris Whittaker in the lineout, "jumping" at 2 or 3 if I recall. The theory was that he was going to be easy to lift. The theory was abandoned pretty quickly because it didn't get the results, but at least it was a creative solution (and good thinking to abandon the idea quickly, too).
Terry
Guest
Simmo underated again... Those stats are amazing ... Just because he cant hit like Bakkies Botha or Brodie Rettalkick people yell and moan about him..I`m still convinced he is our best allround lock..
PiratesRugby
Guest
Foley kicking percentage is based on fairly close range kicks. He doesn't even take them if they're too far out whereas qc will more often have a crack.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Thanks I too was thinking about Hodge. Debrazceni was doing the kicking for the rebels and had 67%. Hodge had 50%, conversions 43% so I doubt he will get to kick this year either. If he did improve that could be a certain start for him. In reality I was stirring the pot with Coleman to get people thinking, I would go Genia and put up with whomever for the missing tests. QC won't be given game time I am sure of that. He should start in the june tests and his goal kicking shouldn't make a difference in those.
PeterK
Roar Guru
I would not go further out than the halves since they are are too far away from the breakdowns and set pieces where most of the issues / penalties occur.
PeterK
Roar Guru
against Ireland and england he made 21 tackles and 9 runs. Sio 15 tackles and 6 runs Kepu 15 tackles and 3 runs Simmons 20 tackles and 21 runs Arnold / Douglas 9 tackles and 11 runs Pocock 27 tackles and 11 runs Hooper 24 tackles and 13 runs Mumm / Timani 18 tackles and 10 runs So Moore did a lot less against Ireland. Sure he tried hard but made no dominant tackles, no damaging runs. Both locks ran more Simmons also tackled more. What notable passing did he do against Ireland or England? Yes he played well against the weaker slower teams but shown up by the quicker stronger teams.
30mm tags
Guest
Good article Peter K., thanks. How do you rate Haylett -Petty as a possible captain.It is likely he will be a long term Wallaby. He appears to have the right temperament and positionally as a full back he has the panorama in front of him.