With both Queensland and New South Wales having released their emerging Origin squads last week, we have a glimpse into what both sides might look like in 2020.
Looking at Queensland first, 19 players were used over the three-match series in 2016, with nine over 30 years old – Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Corey Parker, Matt Scott, Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday, Jacob Lillyman and Gavin Cooper.
All of those players will be gone by 2020, while Darius Boyd and Greg Inglis will both be 33.
Below is a potential Queensland line-up (including their ages in 2020), taking the emerging Queensland Origin squad into consideration, and assuming Inglis and Boyd will still be about.
Queensland
Fullback: Darius Boyd (33)
Wingers: Valentine Holmes (25), Dane Gagai (29)
Centres: Greg Inglis (33), Justin O’Neill (29)
Halves: Michael Morgan (28), Moses Mbye (27)
Props: Josh Papalii (28), Dylan Napa (28)
Hooker: Jake Friend (30)
Second-rowers: Matt Gillett (32), Ethan Lowe (29)
Lock: Josh McGuire (30)
Interchange: Anthony Milford (26), Corey Oates (26), Coen Hess (24), Jarrod Wallace (29)
I am assuming Corey Oates will have transitioned to the forwards by then, making him a great bench option.
I also haven’t considered Kalyn Ponga since he wasn’t named in the emerging Queensland squad. He hasn’t officially declared his allegiance to Australia or New Zealand yet, and despite all the hype, he’s only played two NRL games.
Halfback is the most contentious spot, with Daly Cherry-Evans (who’ll be 31), Ben Hunt (30) and Ash Taylor (25) all likely to be in the mix with Moses Mbye, who I have chosen.
Cameron Munster will be 26 in 2020 and likely pressing heavily for a spot at fullback, five-eighth, in the centres, or as a utility on the bench. He would provide great insurance against either Inglis or Boyd not being available in 2020.
Turning to New South Wales, the Blues used 22 players across the 2016 series.
Five of those players are over 30 and won’t be there in 2020 – Paul Gallen, Robbie Farah, Greg Bird, Josh Morris and James Maloney.
Below is a potential NSW line-up.
New South Wales
Fullback: James Tedesco (27)
Wings: Tom Trbojevic (24), Josh Mansour (30)
Centres: James Roberts (27), Jarryd Hayne (32)
Halves: Matt Moylan (29), Nathan Cleary (23)
Props: Aaron Woods (29), David Klemmer (26)
Hooker: Nathan Peats (30)
Second-rowers: Boyd Cordner (28), Tyson Frizell (29)
Lock: Josh Jackson (29)
Interchange: Jack Bird (25), Wade Graham (30), Andrew Fifita (31), Shannon Boyd (28)
To accommodate Tedesco at fullback, I have Moylan at five-eighth, where he played in the third game of this year’s series, and slotted Hayne in the centres.
I’ve picked Roberts as the other centre, edging out Joey Leilua, for his Michael Jennings-like pace and potential ability to break an Origin game open.
Of course, a lot can happen in three-and-a-half years. Bolters will emerge, with form and injuries at the time playing a big part.
Who is in your Origin sides in 2020 at this early stage?
bearfax
Guest
Maybe being too parochial here but what about Dylan Walker and Brian Kelly. Dylan is only 22 ad has already played for NSW and Australia. As for Kelly, he's only 20 and starred in the NSW U20s win last year as well as in the 9's for Gold Coast.. Both have rep credentials and will be well in the hunt and at their best by 2020
John Coomer
Roar Guru
Every chance he'll be there, he was one I thought long and hard about, but I just couldn't fit him in the Blues backline I chose. Someone had to miss out.
John Coomer
Roar Guru
Based on their form in 2016 yes. By 2020, he'll still be the youngest of the three of them, and a lot can happen in 3 and a half years. And the fact is, Roberts has been picked in the emerging Blues squad, whatever that is worth. I wouldn't argue with any of them being selected as a Blues centre, they each potentially offer something different.
Adam
Guest
Leilua, Croker, Dugan, Fergusson, Hayne, T Trobjevic, J Morris, Jennings would all be a shoe in over Roberts. Sure he can sprint fast but he cant defend or pass the ball to save his life
zim
Guest
Picking roberts over leilua for "his potential to break a game open." Haha. Thanks for the laugh. Leilua is way more damaging than Roberts. It's a not even a contest. You want to see how Roberts would go in origin? Watch what happens every time he plays against someone like Jarrod Croker. He gets taught a lesson every time. Croker is evasive enough to make him pay for his defensive issues and quick enough to cover him easily in defence. If Croker can't get an origin gig there's no way you pick the guy he's always dominating.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Based on his constant limping this year he'll be lucky to make 2020.
ChristopherGrant
Guest
No Latrell Mitchell by 2020 ???? Pfffttttt
The spectator
Guest
Who is more equiped to unlock potential, a guy you work with everyday or a guy who offers fame an glory, lol.
Mushi
Guest
I think that is harsh on DCE. Previously he's been put in a position where the dynamic was established and he had to try and be cronk. If he's the guy going in I think the team structure is more to his liking. On taylor its been a season free of the burden of expectation, let's not blow our maroon load just yet.
Beastie
Roar Rookie
I think it is a bit of both. Sure, blokes like Smith, JT, Cronk, Inglis, etc. are once in a generation players and them being around senior rep players as they were coming through could have helped, but they are pure natural talents that would have been highly successful in the Origin arena regardless of the camp. On the other hand, I do believe that the current crop coming through will most definitely benefit from being around this successful QLD squad and seeing how they go about their business.
AJL.
Roar Pro
Looks like a very familiar story. Qld in front with markedly better players in the 6, 7 and 9, although not by as much as we've been used to over the last decade. I still don't get the "Moylan to 6" fetishism. Just because Lockyer, one of the all-time greats, did it doesn't mean anyone else should be expected to. And I would also expect that Ash Taylor will push either Morgan or Mbye to the bench.
steve
Guest
I think Qld's longstanding loyalty policy will bite real soon, possibly starting in 2017. I don't think we have done enough to turnover our plethora of over 30's players. I am almost praying that Billy Slater doesn't get back for next season. As you can be sure that he will get selected as Qld's fullback. Adding another player 30 plus into the side. Players like Valentine Holmes, Napa, Munster etc need to be fast tracked into the team ASAP.
John Coomer
Roar Guru
Good question Ken. Two reasons re the Morris brothers: 1) They were born in August 86, so will actually be about 2 or 3 months shy of 34 by Origin time 2020. Inglis and Boyd were both born in 1987, so will be closer to 33 than 34 at Origin time in 2020. I think every year for an outside back at that age is significant. 2) I also based my sticking with Inglis and Boyd on the Qld selectors' longstanding loyalty policy, especially for long-serving players from such a successful era, whereas NSW selectors are usually a lot more fickle. I agree that Inglis' body may struggle to hold up though. If so, I think Cameron Munster or Will Chambers will be there, in the absence of any other good young players emerging in the meantime.
KenW
Guest
Good read. A nit-picking point though, how come the Morris boys at 33 will be too old but Boyd & Inglis at 33 won't be? Whether you think they'll be there on form I suppose is another thing (B Moz is probably still the best winger going around though), but if I had to pick one of those quartet to retire before 2020 it would be Inglis, still a superstar but he seems to move very 'heavily' these days (for want of a better descriptor), he just seems a bit fragile.
steve
Guest
DCE? I would suggest he is QLD's version of Mitchell Pearce. Good at NRL level, cant make the step up. Ben Hunt is in the same category. Ash Taylor has QLD halfback written all over him. The sooner he is in the QLD Origin set up the better for the QLD team. I would also suggest once JT goes, Morgan wont get a look in. Nothing about a transitional DCE/ Morgan pairing excites me at all. I think the QLD domination is fast coming to an end. As a QLDer I already have my money on NSW winning the 2017 series. This loyalty QLD have shown to our plethora of older players will bite us really soon.
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Just ask him.
John
Guest
Any chance you can get Loz to lock in any 2020 selections?
John Coomer
Roar Guru
Fair enough mate, I'll take 70%. I think Bird would be a great 5/8 option as well. It will be interesting to see how NSW solves their abundance of fullbacks problem over the next few years with guys like Tedesco, Moylan etc in their prime.
bearfax
Guest
Sorry John, I was a little obscure with my comment. I didnt mean almost a third will be left, but rather that almost a third of those names will probably not be in the team. I'm suggesting about 70% of those names will probably be still in the side. As for Moylan, he's talented but he's no Darren Lockyer. My gut feeling at this stage says Jack Bird. for 5/8
John Coomer
Roar Guru
I think a lot more than a third of these blokes will be in there come 2020, but I did qualify it with the below statement. 'Of course, a lot can happen in three-and-a-half years. Bolters will emerge, with form and injuries at the time playing a big part.' And re Moylan, remember a fullback named Darren Lockyer who became a great five-eighth? NSW have an abundance of fullbacks at the moment, but it obviously depends on how Moylan's role evolves at Penrith over the next few years.