As it’s that time of year, I have taken a look at where I think teams will end up on the ladder for 2017.
I’m sure a lot will disagree but it should make for some good arguments. So starting with the Wooden spoon and working up, here is where I think teams will finish.
18th – North Melbourne 6-16
Now I’m sure a few will think that this is nuts, but hear me out.
First, look at how they ended the season when all of their older-bodied players began to fall below their top tier of output. Very few of their younger players seemed to step up and fill the void.
2017 will be the start of a rebuild. After spending the last few seasons bringing in older players in the 29 – 33 age bracket there is going to be a need to provide extended game time for their younger players.
Another thing to look at is the way in which the Roos faltered after their nine game streak to being 2016. Following this streak, to then go and win only three out of their last 12 games represents a worrying sign and rings similar to the latter half of Fremantle’s 2015 campaign.
17th – Brisbane Lions 6-16
Only ahead in my mind by percentage, but extra wins and a display of improvement would see the Lions happy with 2017.
After the last three seasons and the turmoil that has surrounded them, this is the year for them to settle and start to head in the right direction as a team.
16th – Essendon 6-16
Now again I’m sure people will think this is nuts but they were not playing their best football prior to the saga of 2016 and the year-long suspension dealt to their stars.
In the season prior, they won just six games and were in the process of beginning a rebuild under a new coach, but that has been put on hold until the 2017 season. So they are a step behind the likes of Melbourne and St Kilda who were at the same point in 2015, and to a point Essendon’s rebuild is behind Carlton’s by 12 months as well.
15th – Fremantle Dockers 8-14
Their 2016 season can only be classed as a cliff dive off the top of the ladder – owing to a poor game plan and a poor run of injuries.
They will need to continue with their plan of blooding younger players and developing their game plan. Even before injures took their toll, the game plan was not working.
The Dogs crushed them by 65 points and another three losses of an accumulated total of 155 points all occurred before the point at which the season was killed off by their extensive injury list.
For 2017, it will be working on a new game plan that, fingers crossed, will work better than the 2016 plan.
14th – Carlton 8-14
Another year on and the Blues will continue with their rebuild.
With seven wins last year, they would be happy to, at least, come away with a higher total than that in the new year. Additionally, they’ll be hoping to get more experience into their young team.
With the development of the younger players going well and a backline that boasts a huge amount of potential, the only way is up in the Blues camp.
13th – Collingwood 9-13
Sorry Magpies fans, but I see another season of disappointment coming your way.
With coach Nathan Buckley saying he is looking at the youth of the future but then bringing in 31-year-old Daniel Wells that is 31 and 28-year-old Chris Mayne – talk about a mixed message.
With how they are playing and the development of other teams around them they will fall back again this year.
12th – Gold Coast Suns 11-11
Will be an improvement as long as injury does not hit them. They have missed their first window for a premiership at this point as they look at beginning a small rebuild of their own.
They will play some good football but will fall behind the eight ball of others, who have been developing well over the last two to three years as well.
11th – Sydney Swans 11-11
Hear me out here. After each grand final loss, the Swans have dropped the next year. It has never been out of the eight but they have dropped on average three to five spots.
The problem for them this year is that there are more teams that are on the way up this time round and that could well see them drop lower this time around.
Tenth – Port Adelaide 12-10
For a team that looked ready to smash their way to a seconded premiership just a few years ago, they have not been showing it lately. There seems to be a problem with how the team work together or something – I just can’t put my finger on it.
2017 won’t be there year either.
Ninth – Richmond Tigers 12 -10
Now no joke its just where my system put them.
The additions of Josh Caddy and Dion Prestia will help Dustin Martin sure up the Tigers’ midfield in 2017 and I sense improvement.
Percentage is the only thing that has them out of the eight on my predictor, so with some good wins they could sneak their way into the finals.
Eighth – Hawthorn Hawks 12-10
The loss of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis will hurt the Hawks but I have no doubt it gives a chance for their younger list members to play with experienced players like Hodge, Gibson and Burgoyne before they most likely retire at the end of 2017.
The Hawks will drop and it could well be my biases that have them still in the eight.
But as many have found out in the past, doubt the Hawks at your peril, they can still rip you apart when you least expect it.
Seventh – Saint Kilda 12-10
The Saints have been developing under the radar for the last three or four years. Adding Koby Stevens and Jack Steele into their midfield and Jake Carlisle into their defence will see them become a dangerous side in 2017.
Especially if they are underestimated.
Sixth – West Coast Eagles 13-9
Sam Mitchell will give his all no matter who he is playing for and can only help the Eagles Midfield.
The only downfall for the Eagles, and the reason I don’t see them higher on the ladder, is the absence of their best two ruckmen for the bulk of the year.
Fifth – Melbourne Demons 14-8
Simon Goodwin’s official first year as Coach sees him guide a side who have been developing nicely for the last three years.
There is no doubt that they will be a challenge for any team and will be fighting hard to make it to their first Finals series in many years.
The only problem that could trip them up is if they fall back onto the Melbourne of 2014/15.
Fourth – Grater Western Sydney Giants 14-8
In 2016, they showed what they are capable of and are the team to beat in the Sydney area after winning the battle with the Swans this year 2-1 overall.
They have the players and the talent to go all the way, along with having Finals experience this time around.
Third – Geelong Cats 14-8
What else can be said?
They have two of the best midfielders going around at the moment and with the extra support in the back line this year they will again be a strong side.
The only thing that could upset their balance is if fringe players fail to step up when needed – as was the case for the Cats in the 2016 season.
Second – Western Bulldogs 14-8
The 2016 premiers could go back to back if they remain fit.
But they will be the hunted this year and will need to stay tough and strong to be able to say at the top end of the ladder.
First – Adelaide Crows 16-6
In 2016, they proved that they did not need Patrick Dangerfield.
So 2017 is the year they will push out of that era and show that they are a side to be reckoned with.
They have shown that they can play finals, they just need that second chance to be able to make it to that next stage.
To recap, this is my ladder:
1. Adelaide
2. Bulldogs
3. Cats
4. GWS
5. Melbourne
6. Eagles
7. Saints
8. Hawks
9. Tigers
10. Port
11. Swans
12. Suns
13. Magpies
14. Carlton
15. Dockers
16. Essendon
17. Lions
18. North Melbourne
Lroy
Guest
Freo at least 7th?? Based on what?? They were pathetic last year even when they had their guns.. they picked up a few guys who couldnt get games at other clubs (Mccarthy) or whose best days are behind them (Waters).. like really, whats with the Freo hype??
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - You still don't get it, your post above is opinion, not fact, but it isn't surprising to see that when you are confronted with irrefutable facts you resort to the same old name calling and ranting. I am only trying to help you with something that seems to be very difficult for you. So again a fact is that Murphy has only missed 1 "chunk" of football in the past 4 years - can you see how that isn't open to interpretation? The same with the quality of Cripps second half of the year. But let's just pretend your opinion is correct, I assume I can apply the same logic to any team or player because you have declared you don't have a bias against the blues. So if we apply the consistency of logic I can safely say that Liberatore, Wallis, Bob Murphy & Adams (to name a few) all come under the injury prone banner now and raise concerns with you. I assume you must disappointed in Tom Boyd given he number one draft pick and million dollar a year player has not finished top 2 in the rising star (even though he was nominated in his second year giving him a whole year more to develop than Weitering) I assume that given Bontempelli's (unlike Cripps') last half of he year wasn't as good as his first half you have significant caoncerns that the strain of carrying the team is starting to show. I really hope you get it this time.
mattyb
Guest
You still going Macca,you havnt stated any facts whatsoever,just a different opinion to me and your just passing it off as fact. Here's another few opinions that I believe to be fact seeing your playing the fact game. Your club is sad and tragic because it now always finishes on or near enough to the bottom of the ladder and now constantly loses money,year after year. Your pretty much always wrong. Up and about this time of year but nothing changes. None of the players you ever mention end up doing anything and your club remains sad and tragic,year after year. You always think your right,any opinion differing to yours is unacceptable in your born to rule world and your completely and utterly obsessed that you must have the final word because you believe whoever has the final word must be right. Guess what? Your wrong....again!
Paul cotton
Guest
As a 50year demon supporter I agree we have been disgraceful and dysfunctional for a lot of the period. Our last 2 games this year were not just disgraceful but also embarrassing. We had a chance to show something to the world and fell in a screaming heap. I don't think that the AFL will look at relocating or merging the team primarily because of the name. OK I know that may not seem important however to have a team named Melbourne would be viewed by many people as important
Macca
Guest
And you being disappointed is different to the rising star vote proving he was no good. 1 is opinion 1 is fact.
Macca
Guest
Mattybs - chunks implies plural find the second large charge Murphy has missed in recent times. Also his one chunk was for a contact injury, do you think he is more prone to have some fall on him. On Weitering test your memory, or look at your post. On Cripps his lady 7 games have been his best - where are the signs? Fact V Opinion
mattyb
Guest
Macca,I've said all this,you just can't listen,your more into your own opinion and hurling abuse at those that don't agree. Murphy is becoming injury prone because he is starting to miss large chunks of football,due to injury. Can't remember saying Weitering was actually no good,yet,but I for one was a little disappointed in his season,raging Rising Star favorite,media darling and couldn't finish in the top two. Cripps is actually starting to show signs of having to carry such a lack luster midfield with not much help,knee sorenesses and now a debilitating back injury. Has certainly stagnated and I believe gone backwards because Bontempelli has gone well past him and now Merrett has as well,Cripps should be at least keeping up with Merrett. I've also given reasons why you don't care the thread has been derailed so don't give me the you don't want to start this up again nonsense. You do want to that's why you keep posting when I've already explained all this regarding your sad and tragic club that is going absolutely nowhere with its sad and tragic old timers who want go away even though they have played a roll in its destruction and your sorrowful list of assorted list cloggers and rejects.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - I am not looking to start this all up again and if the thread want already dead I wouldn't bother but I just want to quickly explain a very basic premise that if you can grasp will help avoid these types of scenarios in the future - opinion V fact. If we look at your Gary Ablett example the "think he is overrated" part is opinion and the part after "because" ie "he dropped a mark" is fact. The person in your example is entitled to hold his opinion (even though it is built on a flimsy reason) but the dropped mark actually has to have happened. If someone was able to say "here is he video of the game and you will see it was in fact Chapman who dropped the mark in question" that isn't a matter of opinion in it a point of fact - do you follow so far? So if we then apply that to your statement, saying Carlton are going to be a rubbish team is a matter of opinion and you are entitled to say it, but when you get past "because" and say Cripps form has dropped off, Murphy is injury prone and the Rising Star vote proves Weitering isn't very good they are points of fact and clearly the evidence shows those statements to be false. If you had said I don't rate Weitering, Cripps and Murphy that is a matter of opinion and you are entitled to it but if you listed a reason like it's because Cripps doesn't get enough contested ball hat would be a matter of fact which could be proved true or false (clearly false in his instance). I sincerely hope this has helped.
Macca
Guest
How many gams had you lost before you lost those players Don?
Don Freo
Guest
So, Cat, you don't think the absence of Sandilands, Fyfe, Johnson, Bennell, Alex Pearce, Harley Balic and Michael Apeness affected anything? Wilson doesn't. Along with that, Clarke, Ballantyne and Mundy carried injury and missed games. Hard to establish a game plan with that experience out. That is a valid explanation for a slide down the ladder. These players are back along with many other new players. It is a strong argument for a return to the top 4. Freo will certainly finish above Geelong in 2017.
Macca
Guest
Yeah Mattybs - you can't get the concept that opinions can be wrong and I am the strange one. Why don't you give yourself that temporary ban you think you deserve and make everyone happy.
Cat
Roar Guru
mattyb
Guest
You sure are one strange dude. I can't even imagine how you'd be if Carlton ever actually started winning games or had a genuinely good player.
Macca
Guest
Mattybs – “Great job starting this all up again this morning Col” Says the man who took Dingo’s rumour from this thread to another and back again just to start something. “there isn’t even really falsehoods or righthoods,it’s opinion” This is what you just can’t grasp – if someone say “I think the sky is green” that is wrong, it isn’t a matter of opinion. It is the same when you say that Cripps form has dropped off as his career has gone on – it is provably untrue so you don’t get to say – it is my opinion because their are hard facts that demonstrate it is false. “Sometimes life can have more than one guilty party” and then sometimes we have someone whose sole intent is to cause friction and derail threads (ie a tr0!!l) and then complains when it happens. Time to grow up.
Macca
Guest
Mattybs - "Great job starting this all up again this morning Col" Says the man who took Dingo's rumour from this thread to another and back again just to start something. "there isn’t even really falsehoods or righthoods,it’s opinion" This is what you just can't grasp - if someone say "I think the sky is green" that is wrong, it isn't a matter of opinion. It is the same when you say that Cripps form has dropped off as his career has gone on - it is provably untrue so you don't get to say - it is my opinion because their are hard facts that demonstrate it is false. "Sometimes life can have more than one guilty party" and then sometimes we have someone whose sole intent is to cause friction and derail threads (ie a troll) and tehn complains when it happens. Time to grow up.
Macca
Guest
7
mattyb
Guest
Great job starting this all up again this morning Col,should have probably just had a coffee,funny behavior from someone so against this kind of thing. Macca,get over yourself,sheesh,it's not mathematics,there isn't even really falsehoods or righthoods,it's opinion,if someone says they think Gary Ablett is an overrated mark because he dropped a mark and they can never forget so be it,you've said about 15 times you've got nothing more to say after trying to make a deal (lol) but you keep saying,just let others have an opinion,say your bit and move on. Paul,hoorah,finally someone has hit the nail on the head. Of course there should be temporary bans for both myself and macca,and Col,how obvious does it need to be. Off the top of my head,all of us,and those three words are actually important are guilty of all these things...derailing the thread,personal abuse,not allowing others to have their opinion,bullying,name calling. How many more breaches need to take place and how often?. There's no right or wrong anymore,no excuses of oh but he said this first,how childish is that?The comments now actually start with personal attacks as the opening word in the post for goodness sake,how that's allowed is beyond me. Anyone taking sides should have a bit of a look at themselves as well. Sometimes life can have more than one guilty party and when we blame one and excuse another silly and annoying things start happening.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
PaulD I appreciate what you have said and you get no argument from me in wanting to let people comment on footy articles without having to trawl through rubbish posts but when someone calls legends of the club in Sergio and Steven Silvagni "corrupt individuals" I will go into bat for them. When someone refers to people employed at Carlton as "less than human" then I will respond. When someone accuses me of having a "born to rule mentality" I will defend myself. I get that matty doesn't like Carlton and he is entitled to say that he thinks they will finish bottom - hell they might just end up there, but surely I or other Carlton supporters are entitled to our opinions without him continuing on with his rants.
Macca
Guest
Don - "Out of the 184 comments on this thread, 39 are from you, Macca (more than 20%). 31 of those are direct arguments with or insults directly at MattyB" Don There are more than 8 posts from me not related to Mattyb above this post let alone what is below it. "Only you care whether or not it is fact. People are expressing opinions." - Opinion is fine - blatant falsehoods aren't. An opinion has to be based in reality. As the saying goes you are entieled to your own opinion but not your own facts. You will note I haven't argued with MattyB about where the blues will finish or how many games they will win because those are a matter of opinion - I have called him out on things that a verifiably untrue and for a serious exchange of opinions to take place this is something that has to happen.
Pete
Guest
Of the teams that finished in the Top 7 this year their list looks to be the one with the greatest potential for continued improvement. Hawks and Cats I think will decline, Eagles missing Nic Nat will find it hard to improve, Crows I don't think will improve on this year, they smashed the Swans in the finals, and I don't think the Dogs can replicate their finals series this year. I can't see anyone outside the top 7 this year improving enough to be a threat. They won 16 H&A games this year so improving on that to 18 is not a big call even if they have a more difficult fixture due to their top 6 seeding. They were only 6 points off making the grand final this year and would have started favourites against the Swans.