At the time of writing, there are eighty-two days remaining until the return fixtures, in round three of qualifying, for Russia 2018.
It’s been a nice Christmas, the weather has been pleasing on the eastern seaboard, perhaps a little hot at times, and with the A-League in full swing, the qualifiers haven’t been a daily source of discussion.
A dominant Sydney FC, the charging Victory and a consistent Brisbane all look impressive and Melbourne City loom, despite inconsistent performances and some cracks appearing in their armour.
The energy around the A-League is pleasing and the goal scoring has been consistent, substantial and of quality. Sydney and Adelaide have played the only scoreless draw and it’s been raining goals in recent weeks.
This morning I thought I would have a look at the Socceroos upcoming draw just to remind myself of the task that lies ahead. Initially I felt sick. The words of the late Carrie Fisher, as Princess Leia in The Empire Strikes Back, came to mind: “I have a bad feeling about this.”
But as I crunched the numbers, I realised we would be just fine.
Thankfully, three of the five matches are on home soil. I say thankfully, yet still cringe at the possibility of a substandard surface somewhere along the way. The 2-2 draw with Thailand was partly due to the levelling nature of the pitch.
Sure the Thais played incredibly well and Australia may well rue that draw, however, on a better surface that produces more flow and rhythm in the contest, they should prevail.
The Socceroos will take on Iraq at a venue yet to be decided on March 23. Away from home, it is a danger game (why do I feel like I am going to write that a few more times in this piece?). A relatively comfortable 2-0 win at nib Stadium in September would be a dream start, if emulated.
Considering the Samurai blue and the UAE battle it out on the same night, Australia could and should, move back into an automatic qualifying position. Fingers crossed.
Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia will probably knock off Thailand and join us either equal top or second, depending on the result in the Emirates. A draw there, and for what it’s worth, my tip, would see us sit top with the Saudis.
The top four would stand as follows, as the next match day approaches, only five days later, on March 28.
Australia 12
Saudi Arabia 12
Japan 11
UAE 11
The Socceroos vs UAE clash looks to be the only one in real question with Japan potentially far too strong for Thailand and Saudi Arabia covering Iraq, both on home soil.
The clash with UAE will be pivotal (there I go again). With both Japan and the Saudis climbing to fourteen points, a loss for the green and gold could derail the campaign. A win keeps them one clear at the top. A draw, one behind.
I truly believe it is this game that might decide our fate. For that reason, I predict a 2-1 victory for the Socceroos at Allianz Stadium. Geez, I’m gettin’ nervous here.
The subsequent table would be:
Australia 15
Japan 14
Saudi Arabia 14
UAE 11 (if we lose, look how bad this spot looks)
June 8-13 once again sees the Socceroos involved in the clutch game. The Samurai will cope with Iraq away from home and Thailand will put up a hell of a fight against the Emirates and might steal a draw, yet logic suggests a UAE win.
Australia’s clash with the Saudis at the Adelaide Oval looms, (do I see a pattern emerging here?) as a crucial tipping point for the squad. A win sees the Socceroos move to 18 points, one clear of Japan, with a significant gap to the Saudis and UAE both on 14. Qualification would be close to assured.
A loss would see the boys two points out of the automatic qualification position. The Socceroos’ propensity for drama, and my early death to which it will undoubtedly lead, leads me to think that they will draw either the June 8 game against Saudi Arabia or the previous round clash against the UAE. I have decided to pencil it in here.
You might want to avert your eyes before looking at the predicted table after a 1-1 draw in Adelaide.
Japan 17
Australia 16
Saudi Arabia 15
UAE 14
The Socceroos will head off for a Confederations Cup campaign in late June and friendlies against Argentina and now it appears Brazil, which be invaluable. Germany and Chile await, along with the African Champions.
Thankfully, upon their return, the next round on August 31 sees a comfortable encounter against… oh no… not them again. Japan. Away.
Who knows what will unfold this time around, yet it looks like the pivotal match-up (don’t they all?).
Does Postecoglou nab a goal and then park the bus as it has never been parked before? Should we throw the kitchen sink at them to ensure automatic qualification? Could the Socceroos even recover from a loss that could potentially break theirs and a nation’s hearts?
Safe bet? 1-1 draw.
The loser of the UAE vs Saudi Arabia clash might be a shot duck after this round and home ground advantage will get the Emirates through.
Thailand and Iraq will thrash it out for bragging rights.
That leaves the status of the group as such, leading into the tenth and final match.
Japan 18
Australia 17
(Considering Australia had a plus 2 goal difference advantage leading into 2017, they should be able to hang on to second spot. Maybe. Possibly.)
UAE 17
(A draw between UAE and the Saudi’s would put them both on 16, a much better result for the Socceroos)
Saudi Arabia 15
Thankfully the final round on September 5 is easy to predict and the end result thus. The Emirates will beat Iraq away from home. Japan will be too good for Saudi Arabia even on their home turf and the Socceroos will have a comfortable two or three-goal win against Thailand.
Now where does that leave us?
Japan 21
Australia 20
UAE 20
Saudi Arabia 15
Australia, therefore, qualify comfortably for Russia 2018 on the back of… goal difference! What! No, that can’t be right. Hang on, let me check the maths on all this.
Mmmmm, this is this going to be tougher than I thought. Without a loss, the Socceroos get through on goal difference?
Might want to ramp up the medical insurance I think.
Ants32
Roar Rookie
Got it in one. :)
Stuart Thomas
Expert
sorry at work, didn't mean to stress anyone, perhaps it was the fact that I nearly shat my pants when I looked at the possibilities. Let's hope the boys can bring it home. Need a quick start to shake the other teams though.
Albo
Guest
Spot on ! We have been persisting with the likes of Leckie ( 3 goals from 37 international matches) and Kruse ( 4 goals from 48 matches) as our groomed eventual heirs to Cahill ( a virtual solo performance of an incredible "Messi like" 48 goals from 94 matches). But these long term contenders' stats indicate just how poorly their development has been . Throw in another one time pretender like Tommy Oar ( 2 goals in 28 matches) and it seems certain we will once again be relying on Cahill from his wheelchair, and some big hopes that the likes of Rogic, Mooy & Luongo can score some from midfield !
Albo
Guest
Yep ! Without a couple of Tim Cahill saves ( again) we would be in all sorts of strife already ! Hopefully the experience and fitness of the European season for the likes of Rogic, Mooy, Luongo & Co will find us with some goal scoring ability at last !
At work
Roar Rookie
Thanks Stuart, I was generally fine with our progression because we have 3 home games which should net us 9 points. While I was still expecting stressful times, all you have done is bring forward that stress! :) Honestly though, a competitive qualification group like this is much better than us cake walking straight through.
Mark
Guest
I share your concerns. My biggest worry is, put most simply, where are the goals going to come from? The only game I am willing to pencil in as a definite win is against Thailand. Other than that, the UAE and Saudi games are most critical. Win both of those and we can probably get away with not winning against either of Japan or Iraq...draws in one or both of these games would be fine, and a win would be a total bonus. If we draw against Saudi or UAE, then we need to win against either Iraq or Japan away. A loss to Saudi or UAE would be absolutely disastrous.
Mark
Guest
"it could damage the perception of quality of the local game" It would be a pity if it did because it's absolutely not true, but no doubt that's how it would be spun in more ignorant quarters. Over the last 11 years, the quality of the local game has risen steadily, while at the same time the quality of the Socceroos has declined slowly and steadily. You can see that by looking at how the Socceroos have included more and more A-League players over time. We are producing more good quality players than ever, but we are not producing the elite quality players that we used to.
Barto
Guest
Failing to qualify for this world cup would be disastrous for Australian football. Each world cup year, the interest in Australian football rises with the participation of the socceroo's, and if they were not to make the finals it could damage the perception of quality of the local game. The FFA needs to concern itself with throwing its new money at the socceroos and hope they scrape through.
ChrisJ
Roar Rookie
The race for Moscow is now certainly tense. The Thailand game could really hurt us, if we had won that we would be in a far better position and could consider our first half as qualifiers as about a 7 or 8 out of 10. Now, to me we are at about a 5 or 6 out of 10. Nobody else gave up any points to Thailand in the first half. Plus we looked terrible in that game, and very bad against Japan. I wish I could be as confident as the author is here in some of the games, he sees as winning or drawing. An away draw against Japan would be an extremely good result, albeit an unlikely one. I am always nervous when we play them, and they just seem so superior to us as a team overall. Iraq has given us problems before many, many times. Home, away and neutral. A win here would be huge first up, but I think a draw is more likely. I thought we outplayed the Saudis away and hopefully we can dispatch them at home, as middle eastern team tend to underperform away. However I am not hugely confident here either. Even the Thais at home we have struggled with before. I think at the moment we really just don't have the cattle unfortunately. Most glaringly, we lack talent up front and on the wings. We have almost not strikers, and Kruse and Leckie have not performed well at all for us recently. Who else can we even bring in these areas as replacements? Oar. Burns. My biggest concern is where the goals are going to come from, and how exposed we become all the time since Smith seems to want to play as a left-winger. This is going to be very tough and I think there is a very good chance we will finish third in this group, which will make things very interesting. Sadly I reckon we are going to get eviscerated at the Confed Cup.
Lionheart
Guest
sensible comment
Lionheart
Guest
Cricket and rugby are Commonwealth Cups largely Largely - doesn't discount a couple of exceptions. But the subject mater is irrelevant here, we are discussing Socceroos upcoming qualification matches.
northerner
Guest
Yeah, but you did make me go to the effort of actually looking it up! I actually enjoy the Rugby World Cup - went to a game or two in Canberra back in the day, and watched some of the recent one on TV. Not that I exactly "get" the finer points of rugby, but it's a good game, and although it has nowhere near the depth of football globally, it's still played in a lot of places. I just wish it wasn't struggling in Australia. It, not football, is the code in real trouble.
Caltex & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
Yes it is, but I think you got my point. :)
Nemesis
Guest
Every nation has played every opponent once in Group B. So far, Australia is the only nation that has not yet lost a match. Australia has only played 2 matches at home. If Australia is in trouble, then Saudi Arabia, Japan and UAE are facing a crisis. Would I rather be 10 points like Saudi Arabia & Japan with 3 away games to play? Or rather be 9 points like Australia with 3 home games to play? We know that home fixtures are hugely advantageous in WC Qualification. Australia has not lost a WC Qualifier that matters when playing at home since 1981 when we lost to New Zealand in Sydney. Yes, we also lost to China under Verbeek but that Qualifier was a dead rubber since Australia had already qualified for the next Stage. Australia are a far superior team now than under Holger & Verbeek and will get 9 points at home. So the only question is how many points do we pick up away?
northerner
Guest
Actually, it's a silver gilt cup (silver with a gold gilding). So, no, not just an aluminum cup.
Caltex & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
It's still just an aluminium cup they are playing for.
peeeko
Roar Guru
or argentina
northerner
Guest
As far as I'm concerned, any tournament in which the Japanese Cherry Blossoms can beat the South African Springboks is worthy of being called a "World Cup." Ermm, Japan was never in the Commonwealth, was it? Don't think France was, either...
Nemesis
Guest
Thanks for that, Joe. So you're upset because Australia has an allegedly weak qualification process for the Football World Cup... But you've got no issue that Australia has no qualification process for the Rugby & Cricket World Cups? Do you see the irony? Or does it escape you? Didn't Australia just get its pants pulled down when it played Cricket in Sri Lanka? Imagine if the Australian Cricket team had to play away matches In Asia to qualify for World Cups? Suddenly things are not so easy. We may find the Aussies get their pants pulled down & their privates embarrassingly exposed.
Caltex & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
"The damage to Australia’s rugby union and cricket teams (where Australia actually has a chance of winning the World Cup) is huge however". Those world cups you speak of, are they made out of aluminium..? A very fitting alloy, for their importance; on your so called world stage.