The main criticism of FIFA’s newly announced expanded 48-team World Cup format is the quality of competition. The fear is that the prestige of the tournament may be darkened by landslide results due to the arrival of uncompetitive nations.
In the 2002 World Cup, Saudi Arabia lost 8-0 to Germany and in 2010 North Korea lost 7-0 to Portugal. If this was possible in a 32-team competition it’s almost guaranteed in the 48-team format.
Imagine if such a result occurred in the opening fixture of a group stage at the World Cup between Haiti and Sweden with Haiti still to play Brazil. This could quite easily become reality.
In order to reduce the risk of this happening FIFA must be mindful of the quality of teams from certain confederations when readdressing their quotas for entrance into the Cup.
The new quotas are expected to be announced soon but one indication of how FIFA will proceed can be drawn from the FIFA advisory group which included now-President Gianni Infantino back in December 2015.
In a proposed 40-team format, the 39 qualifying spots would have been given as follows:
Europe 14 (13), Africa 7 (5), Asia 6 (4.5), South America 5 (4.5), CONCACAF 5 (3.5), Oceania 1 (0.5), and a final sport awarded “based on sporting merits using a method yet to be defined.”
Using that as a guide for a 48-team competition a reasonable prediction of quotas for 2026 may be:
– Europe (15)
– Africa (9)
– Asia (8)
– South America (6)
– CONCACAF (6)
– Oceania (1)
– FIFA Fair Play (2)
The numbers in brackets are the current quotas.
Using these quotas and the performance of nations in qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup the following additional teams would have qualified.
Europe (2): Ukraine and Sweden
Africa (4): Burkina Faso, Senegal, Tunisia, and Egypt
Asia (4): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman
South America (1): Venezuela
CONCACAF (2): Panama and Jamaica
Oceania (1): New Zealand
FIFA Fair Play (2): Haiti and Qatar (two completely random countries)
Here are some nations that didn’t qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup nor would they have in my experiment above: Iceland, Romania, Serbia, Wales, Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria, Ireland, Turkey, Slovakia, and Poland.
Which of these teams is going to lose by seven goals? Burkina Faso, Oman or Poland. Would you rather stay up to watch Chile vs Wales or Chile vs Panama?
Of course, the World Cup shouldn’t be an expanded Euro tournament but the addition of more European nations is required to stem fears of too many groups being overtly predictable and non-entertaining.
Without consideration of geographic diversity, Europe could have up to 30 teams in the World Cup. This would turn a great qualification process into a poor one and make the World Cup less-worldly.
SO, I propose more of a compromise between quality and geographical diversity.
Proposed Quotas for the 47 qualifying spots – with the 48th going to the host nation.
Europe (20)
Africa (7.5)
Asia (6.5)
South America (6.5)
CONCACAF (4.5)
Oceania (1)
FIFA Fair Play (1)
This would still increase the geographical diversity of the current tournament but better ensure the quality of the tournament.
BrainsTrust
Guest
India were notable in the old days, its popular in some regions and they would have no shortage of population, is the opportunity really given or do they do as in cricket and restrict the opportunities to the upper classes I don't know. China's major ambition is for their billionaires to outbid each other, no doubt there are a lot of wealthy players and coaches out of China, thats made them very popular, but they have a lot of issues their local players earn a lot of money and then are said to be party boys, with smoking ,alcohol and who knows what else. If you have no competition then having a party,drug and alcohol culture wouldn't matter if they want to climb the ladder internationally that has to go.
Nemesis
Guest
Some people get it. Some people don't. This guy gets it. In defence of the 48-team World Cup Finals https://www.theguardian.com/football/99-94-cricket-blog/2017/jan/14/48-team-world-cup-defence-fifa
northerner
Guest
Well, the new system comes into play in 2026. China might squeak into that one, and I think they'd be quite a reasonable bet for the 2030 cup. And if there's one thing we know about China, they think long term there.
AZ_RBB
Guest
So much being said about this just being done to make sure China gets in. They'll need to give Asia 12 spots before China makes it. But maybe in 10-12yrs they'll be top 8
northerner
Guest
To do justice to India, I doubt they have the ambition that China does when it comes to football on the world stage. They know they're at the beginning of a very long road to building the game there.
Brian
Guest
There's also talk of the Americas combining into one confederation. Lets face it now that Mexico & the USA will qualify easily a merger could be good for all concerned. Ideal would be UEFA 18 AFC 8 CAF 8 Americas 12 ( OFC 1 Host 1 Also like UEFA the other confederations should use the extra spots to expand the number of teams reaching the later rounds of qualifying (e.g Asia should end up with 4 groups of 6 where top 2 qualify). This will improve interest and standards in the long run.
BrainsTrust
Guest
IRB would be licking its lips at any; large scale financial involvement from Russia or Qatar and would be prepared to offer them anything for the right price, not just a world cup, but expanding the six nations to include both so they could play them on a yearly basis. The problem with FIFA is its lack of regard for money in official decisions and, trying to be democratic and representative, when really they are passing the opportunity to earn some money down the line. FIFA should have been upfront and auctioned off the world cup to the highest bidder for cash, instead, countries like France and people like Platini took the cash from Qatar and FIFA got nothing for giving the world cup away. See if you want to sell a house cheap way below its market value on principle and then tell your real estate agent sell it to the bloke who best deserves it then the real estate agent will take a bribe from someone to sell it to. You end up rewarding the most corrupt person. IF you auction the house then the highest bid wins instead of the most corrupt. With Qatar it would have been both anyway but at least FIFA would have got the money.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I'm neutral on whether it's a good or bad decision, we're all going to watch it regardless. Now that the decision has been made, we can scrutinise it, I don't see a problem with that, and there's certainly plenty to talk about. It is worth noting where the next two host nations sit in the rankings, as well as China, and we start to get an inkling as to what this is all about.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
There has been an ongoing debate for 50 years now, about balancing the need to have the best teams there, afterall, it is a world championship, and having representation from every region. One approach would be to extend to 0.5 concept, where two confederations with half a spot each play off against each other. You might have a situation where Sth American gets 7 spots, the top six go straight through, and the last spot might consist of the next 3 or 4 teams playing against 3 or 4 teams from other confederations, and the winner of that play-off gets that final spot. There are a multitude of ways of doing it, so if the likes of China, Qatar and Haiti can't get through because they can't beat teams like Paraguay and Ecuador, then they probably don't really deserve to be there. AS a few outspoken individuals keep telling us on this board, the WC is not just the finals, but the qualifying series to get there.
Cool and Cold
Guest
At the moment, the 15th UEFA ranking is Turkey with world ranking 24. As for AFC, the highest ranked country is Iran, 29. China is 8th in AFC, ranked 81 in the world.
anon
Roar Pro
I don't think blow outs will be a concern. There will always be blow outs, but you're underestimating the strength of competition. Australia just drew with a lowly ranked Thailand and UAE. Australia was ranked 100 in the world during the last World Cup. If you don't think there should be a 48 team competition because of the gulf between the best and worst teams, then you can't justify having a 32 team competition either. A team like Australia has ZERO chance of winning a World Cup in a 32 team competition. Why even have a 32 team competition? Maybe the answer is a 12 team competition to maintain the "purity" of the contests.
AZ_RBB
Guest
I think a lot of people are struggling to accept that FIFA may have made a good decision. I don't blame them entirely.
Lionheart
Guest
You say it's 'utter nonsense' but you don't say why, other than to state that FIFA is corrupt. Personally, I like the idea to expand the number of teams because it will suddenly be achievable for so many quite decent teams, and it will (should is too pessimistic) improve the standard of play and popularity of the game across a large number of middle power football nations. Bring it on, I say. But please, apart from FIFA being corrupt and more countries joining the elite, why is 48 teams nonsense?
AZ_RBB
Guest
What number do you think is appropriate and why?
pauly
Guest
Sheek I can only assume you're referring to people alright with both the 48 team Cup AND the awarding of hosting rights to Russia and Qatar as being without honour/intergrity/morality; I'd hardly reserve that kind of judgement for those who will accept the former and not the latter. Would you feel the same way if the IRB decided to expand the RWC?
pauly
Guest
CONMEBOL only has 10 associations. Should we just let all 10 of them in every time?
pauly
Guest
The only way India will get in is if they host it. Ball and stick games take too much of the resources there.
sheek
Roar Guru
Oh for heaven's sake, first world problem. As if I don't know the difference between qualifying & finals.
Nemesis
Guest
So, don't watch. Do something else. Regardless, it's not a 48 team World Cup. It's a 48 team World Cup Finals. The 2018 World Cup involves 210 teams & 32 qualify for the finals. By 2026 it might be a 220 team World Cup with 48 qualifying for the finals. Just like the NRL is a 16 team competition and 8 qualify for finals. BBL is an an 8 team competition and 4 qualify for finals.
sheek
Roar Guru
"Oh, what a tangled web we we've when we first practice to deceive". This is a line from Sir Walter Scott's famous poem Marmion. I'm sorry but a 48 team world cup is utter nonsense. Already we can see the horse trading reaching farcical proportions. I'm disgusted with FIFA. We know they're a corrupt mob. But this on top of awarding the next two world cups to Russia & Qatar confirms that there is no gutter so low that FIFA won't stoop. All in the name of the God money. And people who say this is all okay have lost their moral compass. You are hollow people, without character, without honour, without integrity.