If Denis Istomin’s defeat of Novak Djokovic in the second round opened the field at the Australian Open, Mischa Zverev’s unexpected win over top-seed Andy Murray is surely the equivalent of throwing a hand grenade into the men’s draw.
Murray was seeking to break his Melbourne Park hoodoo of five times runner up and with the exit of his Melbourne Park nemesis, Djokovic, he stood to have his best chance yet of lifting the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup above his head.
That of course was all until yesterday when 29-year-old German Mischa Zverev played the match of his life, sending the number one seed packing.
The men’s draw has now been opened to the possibility of Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal adding another Grand Slam to their already bulging trophy cabinets – or a first time winner of a major.
Prior to today’s shock result, Murray’s side of the draw was already throwing up an interesting fourth round clash between Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori as well as some potentially interesting Quarterfinal match-ups.
Federer and Nishikori’s fourth-round match last night see-sawed into a fifth set before Federer, the 17th seed, came out the victor in the fifth set.
It seems breaks of serve was the main dish on the menu and by the final set it was a decidedly fitter and even younger looking Federer who battled it out against the injury-prone Nishikori.
So, where to from here with the men’s draw?
The survivors heading into the quarters are yesterday’s man of the moment, Zverev who will take on Federer and in the other quarterfinal number four seed, Switzerland’s Stan Wawrinka will meet France’s Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, seeded 12.
The problem with betting against Wawrinka in a Grand Slam is that the man just loves the big stage a Grand Slam has to offer.
Don’t forget Wawrinka has as many Grand Slam titles as Andy Murray.
Of course the other problem with betting for Wawrinka is that you just never know which Wawrinka will take to the court.
I tend to buy into the popular narrative of Wawrinka’s fragile mental capacity on the tennis court. I am at my core just a hopeless romantic who loves the idea that tennis is as much a mental battle as a physical one.
On the other hand there are those who see Wawrinka less as an emotional head case and more as someone who doesn’t always try as hard as he should.
Either way, Wawrinka could easily add another Grand Slam trophy to his collection or he could be on a plane home by the middle of the week.
On the other side of the draw, there are fewer of the household names left that casual observers of tennis will be familiar with.
The two key contenders on what was Djokovic’s side of the draw are ninth seed, Rafael Nadal and Canada’s Milos Raonic, the tournament’s third seed.
The big serving Canadian is battling a cold and as things are panning out he may be battling a curse of the top seeds. He’s now the highest seeded man left in the draw.
As we slowly inch our way to Sunday’s final, tennis fans could be treated to an all Swiss Semifinal in the top half of the draw if Federer defeats Zverev and Wawrinka takes out Tsonga.
Even more interesting is the possibility of a Federer and Nadal final, which would be the ultimate in turning back the tennis clock.
There are only three men left in the draw who have won a Grand Slam: Federer, Nadal and Wawrinka.
The potential for a debutant Grand Slam winner is tantalisingly close at the first Slam of the year. Could this be a sign of what is to come in 2017?
This year’s Australian Open has also reminded us that seedings are just numbers and what counts is the action as it unfolds on court. There are no such things as a sure bet in Grand Slam tennis, where everyone is hungry to stay on the biggest stage tennis has to offer.
What will be interesting for the likes of Federer and Nadal moving forward is how well they recover from playing five set matches.
To see these old foes battle it out in the final of a Grand Slam one last time would be a dream come true for many tennis fans.
But for that to happen they need to overcome younger men who stand in their way, hungry for Grand Slam glory.
Pete Kruger
Guest
It's going to be Nadal vs Federer final. Very good for tennis and possibly a year of top seeded players not making it.
Mark
Guest
So good to have a slam where there are many chances and not just dominated by Djokovic as it has been for the past 6 years.
Bring Back...?
Guest
Picked Raonic before it started and no reason to change horses. A big Rafa fan though and would love to see him do it - not many in history have got 2 of each of the 4 slams. If I remember correctly, he lost his last (recent) match to Monfils. Worried about tonight.
jonty smith
Roar Guru
First match into my predictions and they've already failed. Ah! I think istomin has nothing to lose against dimitrov and should he play as well as he did to beat djokovic, there's no reason he can't beat dimitrov
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Maybe the ideal thing would be one of Federer and Nadal against one of these younger guys in his first final putting on a show that puts him firmly into the consciousness of the casual tennis observer.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Rafa was quite up against it in his last match until his young opponents body started to go out on him, while Kei had his own injury issues, Roger was actually well on top through much of that match before those health issues started to come up. But you just never know. Men's tennis is just so competitive at the moment, so many guys have just raised their level, and if anyone just has a bit of an off-match they are gone. Gone are the days when the top-4 had a big gap over the rest and could cruise through matches until they faced each other and then they had to raise their level. Hard to see Zverev going much further. A player like that can often manage to pull out a match where it all just clicks and they just keep hitting the lines and making their winners, but it's pretty rare to see them back it up 2, 3, 4 matches in a row like would be needed here. But just about any of the others could still be in with a shot here.
smr
Guest
the way things are going who knows? Outside chance my bet is Grigor ...my heart wants Milos though
Kate Smart
Expert
Nice predictions, Jonty. I agree with Fed and Stan going through to the Semis but I don't think Monfils will beat Raonic. It's interesting you have Istomin over Dimitrov. Dimitrov is another player for who there has to be question marks over if he's ever going to reach the heights of the expectation that's followed him. I do think a Stan/Thiem final would be nice though. Only time will tell. Thanks again for the comment.
Kate Smart
Expert
Ah, Le Monf! If there are question marks over which Stan turns up there are equally as many about Monfils. He's frustrated so many with his unbelievable talent but questionable work ethic. It should be an entertaining match.
Kate Smart
Expert
Andy, you may be spot on here! Thanks for the comment.
Kate Smart
Expert
That's a good point about ratings in the finals. I'm watching Thiem/Goffin and I can't believe how many have left RLA. This could be a cracker of a match but casual tennis fans most likely aren't familiar with these younger guys. But Fed/Nadal won't be around for ever and new rivalries/champions will emerge. Thanks again for your comment.
Kate Smart
Expert
I agree anon that Federer has it over Stan if for nothing other than his presence intimidates him. On the other hand, Fed and Rafa haven't been dominant in their matches. They've both had five setters although Rafa of old probably wouldn't have gone five against baby Zverev. I suspect Raonic is the strongest on his side but it's the Fed/Stan side I find the most intriguing. Thanks again for the comment.
Andy
Guest
haha i love how we make our picks, you do what we all do, starting with what we think the stats are and if they back up our gut then sweet if not then stats only tell half the story. its great!
Andy
Guest
Murrays and Djokovics losses against quality but not that good opponents makes Federers consistency in slams even more impressive. I know i took it for granted that he would make the semis for years but i really shouldnt have. At this point i dont think there is a favourite, its who turns up on which day.
anon
Guest
If Nadal is good enough to reach the final, it probably shows "he's back" to some degree, which would mean he's in good enough form to beat Federer -- especially if he can make it go more than 3 sets. I can't see Nadal doing it though. Way too conservative. Federer on the other hand is playing some of the most aggressive tennis I have seen.
Brian
Guest
Nadal has a tougher run from here to make the final, Monfils, Raonic and the winner of Thiem v Dmitrov. I doubt he will get through all that but if he does would back him to beat Federer in the final.
Brian
Guest
I'd back both Raonic and Nadal to beat Federer in the final but not the others. Wawrinka lacks the pace to constantly make Fed play the extra shot like Djoker and Rafa do. He relies on his own winners and Federer generally has the game to mix it up and make it difficult for him.
Lancey5times
Roar Rookie
Ok so I just checked and Stan has won one of the last six against Fed. I still think Stan will beat him should the clash eventuate but I clearly cannot base this pick on any stats. It may therefore be confirmed in a few days that I don't know s&#t.
andrew
Guest
The tournament needs Rafa and/or Roger to make the Mens Final. Cinderella stories and first time winners are good, but you still need a name in the Final to draw eyes to TV sets.
spruce moose
Guest
While Nadal is still in the tournament, Federer can never be considered the favourite. Nadal is psychologically all over Federer.