My bold on-paper February predictions

We’re now only a few weeks away from the start of the Super Rugby season, and it’s a good a time as any to combine a first look at most squads with some bold predictions for the season.

In recent years, this piece has come in the week of the first round, and I’ve tried to employ some degree of rational thought. But given that’s rarely gone well, I figure it can’t be any worse if I have a look at the squads – most of which I’ve not seen yet – and just make a guess from there.

All squads look strong on paper in early February, so what can possibly go wrong?

AFRICA 1
I don’t mind admitting it’ll take a good month to get my head round all the personnel changes in the South African conferences, and it’s going to take plenty of reading up, too, after seeing next to nothing of the Currie Cup last season.

The Bulls, for example, have lost a host of players and into their place come another host of the players from the Blue Bulls squad that finished runners-up in the Premier Division last year.

So while the Bulls will almost certainly miss the likes of prop Marcel van der Merwe and backrower Lappies Labuschagné among others, they gain hooker Edgar Marutlulle from the Kings and Springbok lock, Lood de Jager. Plus, Jacques Potgieter is fit again.

The Cheetahs will bring the confidence of Free State’s Currie Cup win forward into Super Rugby, but there hasn’t been any great turnover of the playing numbers for 2017, which suggests to me that that confidence probably won’t carry them too far.

The loss of de Jager and wild-haired flanker Willie Britz to Japan – and now the Sunwolves – will hurt, but how quickly they can combine as a squad, and how well they start will determine their season.

The Stormers’ off-season transfer list looks to be one of consolidation. They lost names like Vincent Koch, Schalk Berger, and Nic Groom, but added players in most positions to add depth. Whether that depth can convert into a playoffs spot remains to be seen. Winning away from Cape Town has always been the big issue for the Stormers, and with a large chunk of their list carrying over from last season, it’s hard to see where that sudden ability to win in New Zealand comes from this year.

The Sunwolves in for a better season than their debut year, I think. There’s plenty of Japanese players coming in who I know little about, but the Moondogs’ squad contains 26 players already capped by the Brave Blossoms.

Ex-Force lock Sam Wykes brings nearly 90 games of Super Rugby experience, and the aforementioned Willie Britz will help make up for the loss of backrower Andrew Durutalo. Fumiaki Tanaka has returned home after a few seasons and a title with the Highlanders, but they’ll need to find another finisher to replace Akihito Yamada, who was their leading try-scorer last season.

AFRICA 2
The 2017 Jaguares should now be that much better prepared to deal with the travel requirements and the week-to-week grind of Super Rugby, and hopefully, they’re ready to convert reasonable international form into the provincial game. Personnel-wise, the return of Test capped Number 8 Benjamín Macome from Bayonne will add some depth to the backrow stocks if Leonardo Senatore manages to stay on the right side of the law this year.

Can the Jaguares sneak a playoffs spot? I’m not so sure about that. We saw that year that consistency and an inability to win away from home were their major down falls, and they’d need huge improvements in both areas.

I think it’s safe to say the Kings are in for another tough year. Eastern Province’s Currie Cup was even more diabolical than their Super Rugby season, and one of the transfer lists I saw over the weekend had 33 departures and 34 additions!

Among them are props Ross Geldenhuys from the Highlanders and Chris Heiberg for the Force, scrumhalf Louis Schreuder from the Stormers via Japan, and Brumbies fans might recognise the name Lionel Cronje, who has turned up at yet another South Africa side. I just hope their cheques are clearing.

The Lions have another strong squad, and you’d imagine the pain of last year’s Final – even though they maintained the whole time that just reaching the Final was a huge achievement – will be a constant motivating factor.

Warwick Tecklenburg has hung up the boots to go farming, but Warren Whiteley remains and Jaco Kriel is still there doing Jaco Kriel things. If they play anything like last year, they’ll finish top four again, I’m quite sure.

The Sharks ruined a dream draw in 2016, and I think they and the Jaguares might be battling it out to be the unlucky African conference side this season. The Sharks have lost too many established names for mine: Marcel Coetzee, Jacques Potgieter, Parl Jordaan, JP Pietersen, and Willie le Roux to name a couple. In their place, new coach Robert du Preez has promoted from within, but this squad has a ‘rebuilding year’ feel about it.

NEW ZEALAND
2017 is going to be about consolidation for the New Zealand sides, and following the South Africa sides here, all five teams look rock-solid in terms of player movement. And that is most certainly a strength of New Zealand rugby; lose a player here and there and watch to see which talented peg falls into the hole.

The Blues gained prop Pauliasi Manu from the Chiefs and Jimmy Tupou from the Crusaders among other forwards, but then lost other forwards including lock Josh Bekhuis and backrower Tanerau Latimer, both overseas. They gained Augustine Pulu and Sonny Bill Williams, but then lost Bryn Hall and Tevita Li. They’ve probably made a net gain, but will that be enough to finish any higher? Hard to say.

It’s a similar story at the Chiefs. They’ve lost Manu and hooker Rhys Marshall, but get Liam Messam back for a full season. They lose Pulu and centre Seta Tamanivalu, but get Tim Nanai-Williams back from Japan.

Injuries were the major issue for the Chiefs last season, and with a largely unchanged side, even just a healthy year will have them better placed than last season. Add to that, the Aaron Cruden Farewell Tour being heading to coastal France gives the Chiefs plenty to play for. They’ll be there or thereabouts.

I recall issuing concerns about the Crusaders last year, and should be wary of doing that again, but I can’t shake those same feelings given they have lost a few very handy players for 2017. Andy Ellis has entered another next stage of retirement, heading to Japan, but Bryn Hall will be useful.

Out wider is a bit different; Kieron Fonatia, Robbie Fruean (who admittedly hasn’t played a lot in recent seasons), Johnny McNicholl, and Nemani Nadolo will take some replacing, and Tamanivalu will go some way toward doing that. Digby Ioane could be very handy, too, depending on what sort of shape he’s in.

The Highlanders’ biggest off-season change was Tony Brown taking over from Japan-bound coach Jamie Joseph, and with very little player movement. They lost prop Josh Hohneck and lock Mark Reddish, and scrumhalf Tanaka, but remain well-equipped in all areas. Tevita Li will add yet more speed out wide, where the Highlanders have long been dangerous. They’ll be a decent chance this year, the Highlanders; it’s hard to see them not playing finals.

And the only team that might stop the Highlanders topping New Zealand is the Hurricanes, who might even start the season with a squad stronger than that which claimed the 2016 title in such style.

They have lost a few handy players like James Marshall and Willis Halaholo, but gain wunderkind Jordie Barrett. And they also immediately benefit from the return to fitness of players like James Broadhurst and Nehe Milner-Skudder. A back-to-back title is well and truly possible.

AUSTRALIA
I think the Brumbies will struggle this year, and more so with the weekend news they’ll be without Argentinean scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli for at least the start of the season, and quite possibly longer. With a backline already without Matt Toomua and Christian Lealiifano, losing Cubelli is crippling.

While they’ll miss the leadership of Stephen Moore, there are plenty of hooking options. The same can’t really be said of replacing David Pocock. Jarrod Butler will probably start the season in the no.7, but I can’t see the Brumbies dominating the breakdown any time soon. I will be watching Rob Valetini and Lolo Fakaosilea’s development with interest.

I’m really excited about the Force this year. Tatafu Polota-Nau and Ben Matwijow are both handy signings, while prop Shambeckler Vui and no.8 Isi Naisarani both starred in the NRC last season. Their backline danger-rating goes up if Jonno Lance can stay fit, and Billy Meakes will go a long way toward replacing Kyle Godwin and Ben Tapuai.

It will all depend on how they start; if they post some early wins, the confidence will flow. The Force probably won’t play finals, but they might not finish fifth in the conference, either.

This has to be the year the Rebels take the next step. There’s now too much talent and experience sprinkled throughout this still-young squad for them to blow chances and make dumb decisions. They have decent lock options, and Lopeti Timani – finally – looks set for a full season at no.8, and Jake Schatz will be a handy short-term option for Sean McMahon.

Where Jack Debreczini plays will be interesting, and the signing of flyhalves Jackson Garden-Bachop and Ben Volavola suggests it won’t be at 10. Reece Hodge can only benefit from a full season at 12, too, where he’ll learn to feed a suddenly large amount of firepower out wide.

Can the Reds revival come in one off-season? Quite possibly. Add the experience of Stephen Moore, George Smith, allegedly-naughty Scott Higginbotham, and conqueror of fatties, Quade Cooper to any side, and they’ll make a difference. But it might actually be guys with a season now under their belt, like Andrew Ready, Lukhan Tui, and even Karmicheal Hunt who have the big impacts. And if that level of player has strong season, the Reds’ revival will be complete.

But the Waratahs will make the Reds work for an Australian conference title, that much is for sure. The ‘Tahs have added in some key positions, and on the whole, look to be starting 2017 in a better place than this time last year. The return home of Sekope Kepu will definitely solve some scrummaging problems, while hooker Damien Fitzpatrick had a strong NRC to remind everyone of his obvious talent.

The Tahs’ lineout was hot and cold last season, but ex-Reds lock Dave McDuling could prove a handy acquisition here, too. Irae Simone, if they’re willing, could add another dimension to the midfield; mind you, so could simplifying Israel Folau’s game. Reece Robinson had an excellent NRC, and Andrew Kellaway and Cam Clark could fight out an interesting fullback battle.

I don’t think Waratahs fans will be disappointed this season.

Conference guesses
So I suppose I have to put something down on paper, otherwise there’s nothing to know how good or probably terrible this first glance at squads has been. So, with no further ado…

AFRICA 1: Bulls, Stormers, Sunwolves, Cheetahs
AFRICA 2: Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Kings
NEW ZEALAND: Hurricanes, Highlanders, Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues
AUSTRALIA: Reds, Waratahs, Rebels, Brumbies, Force

WILDCARDS: Highlanders, Waratahs and probably the Stormers; with the Chiefs fighting off the Crusaders, maybe the Rebels, and maybe the Sharks for the last spot.

And maybe the Blues. Maybe.