2017 ladder predictions: Twelfth through tenth

Hello again, Roarers! Having established the bottom third of my predicted 2017 ladder, it’s time to edge closer to the top eight, with positions twelfth through to tenth up for grabs.

Today’s article features a South Australian team and two of Victoria’s most prominent.

12th: Collingwood Magpies

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Collingwood has (for me) probably been one of the most frustrating teams to watch in recent times. They’re the biggest club in Australia, but they’re so far from being the best.

Sadly, for their plenty of dedicated fans, I can’t foresee Collingwood breaking into finals contention in the coming season. It’ll be a similar season to 2016.

They’ll have good patches but ultimately the level of talent and organisation (or dis-organisation?) within the gates of the Holden Centre won’t allow them to compete for a finals spot against the teams above them.

On the team itself, it’s clear that their midfield is set. Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury – as well as the rapidly improving Brodie Grundy – means that they’re not short of talent in the middle.

The young Darcy Moore as well as veteran Alex Fasolo will anchor their forward line in season 2017. Where their biggest concern probably lies is their defence. They traded away some solid defenders, but neglected to bring any players of similar positions into the club.

It also shapes up as a hugely important year for ‘Bucks’ and Eddie McQuire. Why? Because a poor year, and I bet that the Collingwood crowds would be readying their pitchforks.

Most influential new player?
Collingwood had a somewhat confusing off-season, with much of their defence decimated. Nathan Brown and Jack Frost were shipped off to St Kilda and Brisbane respectively. Also leaving the club were the much-maligned Travis Cloke (who’s heading to the reigning premiers – whether or not this was a good move is an entirely other can of worms), Jarrod Witts and Marley Williams.

So, for all the departures, what did they gain? Fremantle’s Chris Mayne joined the Pies, as did the Kanga’s Daniel Wells and GWS’s Will Hoskin-Elliot. The latter two are decent – if ageing – players who will bring smidges of talent to the Pies. Hoskin-Elliot has the most potential here, provided he gets decent game-time.

Predicted surprise win of the season?
After being oh so close to defeating rival Hawthorn in the closing stages of the 2016 season (in what was, honestly, a bloody brilliant game), the Pies would definitely desire to win either their Round 9 home game against the Hawks or their Round 15 away match. They are both being played at the MCG.

They’d also strive to win their Anzac Day match against Essendon (although, I have already predicted an Essendon win in this game!)

Worst potential loss of the season?
While predicting specific losses this far out from the season is close to impossible, I’ll stand by my guess that Collingwood will lose their Anzac day match against bitter rivals Essendon. They’ll also want to avoid losses against other Victorian teams – notably Carlton, St Kilda and Melbourne (all three are teams whom the Pies lost games to in 2016).

Best and fairest winner?
To my surprise, the 2016 E.W Copeland Trophy didn’t go to the Pies’ brilliant recruit Adam Treloar. Instead, it went to veteran and Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury. It certainly won’t be a surprise if one of the duo is awarded the prestigious award this year. However, I could go a little left-field and say that – provided he has a consistent season similar to the latter stages of 2016 – Brodie Grundy might be in with a chance.

Too left-field? Then lock in either Treloar or Pendlebury – for me, their hard to split, but a little intra-club competition couldn’t hurt, could it?

11th: Port Adelaide

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Oh, how Port Adelaide have fallen. From a finding themselves a kick away from a grand final in 2014, Port have fallen out of the top eight in both of the seasons that have followed.

There’s no doubt, though, that they’ve got the talent, but can they recover? Nah, not in 2017.

In a similar season to the aforementioned Collingwood, Port will be average but nothing near finals-worthy, in a way that only Port and Collingwood seem to have specialised recently.

Port Adelaide absolutely has talent – names like Robbie Gray, Ollie Wines and Chad Wingard are names that suitably impress. But consistency is in no way, shape or form their strong suit, and for every wonderful, competitive game Port Adelaide play (last year’s match, even though they narrowly lost, against the Bulldogs comes to mind), there was a horrendous, disgustingly lazy loss (the late season match against the Swans).

So, it’ll be another year of close enough but definitely not good enough. And like so many his Richmond and Collingwood counterparts, surely Hinkley will be feeling the heat.

Most influential new player?
For the third year running, Port Adelaide had a pretty disappointing trade trading period. In fact, not one player either left or joined the South Australian club during the trading period.

We cast our eyes, then, to the draft. At November’s draft, Port Adelaide’s recruiting team managed to pick up a very solid key forward (Todd Marshall) and three midfielders with a lot of potential. As such, it’s hard for me to judge who the most influential new player will be. But nonetheless, it was an impressive draft haul for Port.

Surprise win of the season?
In 2016, Port Adelaide managed to suffer defeats in both of their Showdown appearances against the Crows. For the sake of nothing more than club (and supporter) morale, they cannot let that happen again this season.

Showdown results are notoriously difficult to predict, but I’m going to go out on a ledge and predict that Port will win a close one against the Crows – most probably during their home showdown early in the season in Round 3 – when the club will still be high on confidence of the new season.

Beating Hawthorn – in their Round 11 home game – would be another fantastic morale booster, particularly because it was Hawthorn that ended Port Adelaide’s 2014 campaign.

Worst potential loss of the season?
Losing in China against Gold Coast would hurt. Not to mention deeply embarrassing. But, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it happened.

Best and fairest winner?
It was brilliant midfielder (and my personal favourite Port Adelaide player) Robbie Gray who took out the John Cahill medal last year, ahead of Ollie Wines and Jasper Pittard. It wouldn’t be surprising, at all, if Gray took out the award yet again this year – a pretty damning indictment, I reckon, on the rest of his teammates.

10th: Melbourne Demons

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Tenth for the Demons? This was definitely one of the hardest calls to make, there’s no doubt about that.

Much like St Kilda, this is a team on the rise. But finals in 2017? I don’t think so. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve got an impressive squad; but I just am not as enthused about them as I am about St Kilda.

It’s Melbourne’s consistency that is the most worrying aspect of their performances for me.

Observing the three week stretch in August last year, the Demons beat Hawthorn and Port Adelaide in massively convincing fashion – before enduring two hopeless, utterly poor losses at the hands of Geelong and Carlton.

If this inconsistency continues into 2017, then I’m of the belief that Melbourne will be their own worst enemy: sabotaging themselves.

Still, there’s still plenty to be excited about: not least of which will be Simon Goodwin’s ascent into the coaches seat. And, who knows, if the Dees utilise 2017 as a year to perfect their formula, come 2018 Dees fans might just have to put off their ski trips for a few weeks when their club inevitably returns to the finals mix.

Most influential new player?
Melbourne had a very good trade season according to most. The big, most prominent signing was of course Jordan Lewis. After his surprising defection from the Hawks, the veteran midfielder arrives to provide an added pair of experienced hands to the Dees young playing brigade. And they got him for so cheap, which means that they barely compromised their draft picks! Win-win, in my eyes. Melbourne also snared seasoned Essendon defender Michael Hibberd, and GWS youngster Pat McKenna. But it’s gotta be Lewis who gets the nod as their most influential new player.

Surprise win of the season?
As mentioned below, the Demons must be focusing all their efforts and energy into defeating rivals St Kilda. They haven’t since 2007, and Round 1’s Etihad Stadium match-up would be the perfect opportunity for them to break that duck. Well, that’s what they’ll be hoping. An (oddly) more attainable win might be their round 7 match-up against Hawthorn – after

Worst potential loss of the season?
They couldn’t possibly lose to the Saints again, could they? Well, yes, they could. One loss to the Saints would be bad, but lose both 2017 games against St Kilda and the Demons would be resigned to yet another year where their devastatingly brutal losing streak against the club haunts them.

Furthermore, it’ll be disappointing for Melbourne to lose to Collingwood this year – something they’d be desperately hoping to avoid after comprehensively beating the Pies in both meetings

Best and fairest winner?
Jack Viney got the nod as Melbourne’s Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy winner for 2016, ahead of admirable captain Nathan Jones and the brilliant Max Gawn. But, for me, there’s only one person who could take out the 2017 best and fairest, and that’s big ol’ Gawny.

The ruckman had an incredible 2016, and all eyes will be on him to see if he could better that in 2017. And if he doesn’t get it? Um – nah, it has to be him. They’ll have to create an award for him then. Best beard on Melbourne’s squad, perhaps?

My ladder, up to this point, is as follows
10). Melbourne
11). Port Adelaide
12). Collingwood
13). Essendon
14). Richmond
15). North Melbourne
16). Carlton
17). Gold Coast Suns
18). Brisbane Lions