NRL 2017 season preview: Penrith Panthers

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That's the thing with stats: you can't twist them. They're numbers, they're fact. You can twist RAW numbers if you like, but that's why I focused more on percentages and rankings, as they're more relative and therefore much a much stronger foundation for any subjective argument you've put forward. That's not to say he's invincible, untouchable etc. and I never claimed he was - to be honest I'm one of their harshest critics when we don't perform - I simply refuted (using facts) your argument that he is "probably the worst" and serially overrated. Why do you think he was picked for NSW and Australia? Unless you think you somehow know the intricacies of league better than the experts whose lives have revolved around the game? Anyway, like I said: you put forward a subjective argument, I countered with fact. Neither are wrong as not everything is objectively measurable or quantifiable. But numbers are a lot harder to disprove...

I've got to say your assertion that "...[Moylan] is not a very good fullback – his positioning, kick returns and general running ability are all severely lacking. He is probably the worst kick returner and defensive custodian in the game" is well off the mark. While you're obviously entitled to your opinion, you must be aware the numbers simply don't add up to support it. While he may be middle-of-the-road in some categories you've mentioned - i.e. bomb-diffusing, metres-per-carry - that hardly suggests that he's "probably the worst". And as for your implication that he is somehow weaker simply because he relies more heavily on Mansour for these metres and kick-returns, the question I would counter that with is, "Why would you NOT use Mansour?". When you have the Dally M Winger of the Year/Australian Representative next to you who finished the season second in all run metres, third in line-breaks, third in tackle-breaks and sixth in tries, why would you NOT exploit this powerhouse? Especially when you (Moylan) lead the league in line-break assists and thus are proven in your ability to exploit such options effectively? Moylan also has the ability to leave it late, offloading at the line second-most of any current fullback while maintaining an error rate only bettered by Munster, Boyd and Inglis (all Queenslanders). If you'd prefer to focus more on his defensive ability, as noted by others in this thread he actually boasts the third-lowest missed tackle percentage (almost twice as effective as Tedesco, the man many seem to rate more highly for NSW). And he's no "flash in the pan", either. In 2014, when the Panthers made their charge to finish in the top-four, Moylan was ranked first among fullbacks for offloads, second for tackles and possessions, third for try assists and line-break assists, fourth for line breaks and fifth for try-saves. And while his 2015 was cruelled by injury, any claims that he's injury-plagued are rubbish; he's had one serious ankle tear which he came back from successfully. If you want to suggest he's more susceptible to injury based on his small frame, look at the amount of time Inglis, Dugan and Tedesco - all bigger bodies - spend on the sidelines. I could go on, but at the end of the day I think I'll let Moyza have the last laugh himself when he proves the critics wrong again this year...

No ! The NSW problem has been a lack of creativity for the past decade ! Finally we have a couple of players who can create tries , if only the powers to be are game enough to break out of the defensive minded "no risk" pattern of selections that have been a proven failure all that time.

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Thanks Pomoz. I couldn't find many of these when I looked so glad to know where to find them now.

BTW in spite of me defending Moylan's defence and positioning, I also prefer a running fullback and would move him to 5/8th, where ehe would shine. I think it is clever to have DZW and Mansour take his kick returns. Mansour is a beast and gets the sets rolling. DZW is also an unsung hero at this. But, I agree that it would be better to have stronger runner and would prefer young Edwards there.

This year will tell whether Cartwright is any good. He played out of position for most of the season and his lack of mobility made it difficult playing at 5/8th. He will spend this season at lock and we will know what he is made of by the end of the season. I watch with interest.

Keith I have responded to your incorrect statements about Moylan's defence and positioning in a reply to Mr X. The best defensive fullback is Inglis and Moylan is 3rd. the worst, with a missed tackle percentage DOUBLE that of Moylan's at 38% is Tedesco. Inglis is outstanding at the back with a missed tackle percentage of 13.1%. The best kick defuser is Cameron Munster. Moylan is sixth in this area. As for NOT defusing bombs and kicks, Munster is also 8th and 20th for this, so he is good at catching but also misses plenty. Moylan is not in the top 20 for not defusing bombs or kicks. The stats are available on the NRL website under stats leaderboard. Click on >20 below any of the lists and it will expand the list to top 20. There are all sorts of excellent additional stats available there. Here is the link.http://www.nrl.com/stats/telstrapremiership/statsleaders/tabid/11564/stat/bombscaught/default.aspx As I have said elsewhere, I agree the Panther's can't possibly be premiership favourites considering the calibre of the Storm, Broncos and Cowboys. They are dark horses. But if you write an article with strong opinions about players that just aren't supported by the evidence then you should expect to be criticised. You shouldn't be defensive if you haven't done the work to support your arguments. Be enlightened.

Mr X. missed tackles per game are meaningless unless you include the number of tackles made. If you do that things look different. The missed tackle percentages are: Moylan 19.75% Coote 28% Barba 36.3% Boyd 22% Munster 21.6% Hopoate 36.6% brett morris 24% Wighton 25% Hayne 20.6% Tbrojevic 18.6% French 38.7% Dugan 23.3% Inglis 13.1% Mitchell 31.4% Tedesco 38.8% I think this is why people think the authors analysis is a bit off. Any meaningful review of the facts show that Moylan makes more tackles than most fullbacks and misses fewer. Tbrojevic misses fewer but only makes 5.9 tackles a game, Moylan makes 8.1 tackles a game. Ok what about try saving tackles? Top is Ben Barba with 15, 2nd is Coote with 10, equal 3rd with 9 are Dugan, Hopoate and Moylan. The author said that Moylan is the worst defensive custodian in the game. On what does he base this opinion? Lets talk about kick defusing. For bomb kicks defused, Munster is 1st followed by Barba Hopoate Coote and Wighton. At 6 is Moylan. It is the same for general kicks defused. Moylan is 6. What about bomb kicks NOT defused. Moylan is not in the top 20 for dropping bombs, I can't get a bigger list than that. However, Wighton, Munster, Coote and Hopoate are in the top 20 for not defusing bombs. I can't argue that Moylan is a good kick returner. He isn't and never will be with his slight frame and loping gait. But all the rest of the comments about positioning and defensive skills are frankly, just plain wrong.

"The Panthers just doesn’t have the ability to win a premiership under their current coach." Certainly a lot of the club's supporters were saying the same a year ago, but he's the only coach in the club's 50 year history to take over after the team had missed the finals, and then make the finals in his first year. He made a lot of correct decisions last year, and not too many incorrect ones. He's a Broncos reject, sure enough, but he would not have been shown the door at the Broncos if Bennett had not returned. Griffin appears to be himself developing as an NRL coach, to say he doesn't have the ability to win the premiership is just an empty hunch.

Thanks for going to the trouble Keith. As I said I didn't have a problem with you calling Penrith overrated I tend to agree, especially when we are equal price favourites for the premiership with Melbourne, that, in my mind, is a joke. You just needed stats to back this up, which you have, in order to justify your comments. So you're fine.

Well said and supported. As I said above, I agree that penrith are a good team with a good mix of youth and experience. They just need another year or two before they will be a genuine threat. I think it is funny how you get accused of being blinded by your alleged hate of the Panthers and Gould by people who are clearly blinded by their love of the club. For the record I enjoyed the article and your other previews. I will say though that your prediction of fourth for my Eels is a tad high I think. They will be stuck in that group fighting for 6-8 I think. Too much inexperience and lack of quality in the spine.

For what's it worth Keith I think your series of articles have been very good. Of course I haven't agreed with everything you've said but I recognise your opinion as what it is - an opinion. I've found your points - even the ones I don't agree with - to be well reasoned and logical. It seems some Panthers supporters are a bit sensitive to being called over rated. Its not unreasonable to expect that when you've been pegged as one of the competitions favourites. Anyway I guess there's only going to be one set of fans that are really happy with your final conclusion...

Maybe Penrith fans are discussing Wallace's representative future but no one else has been since he ruptured his nut in origin.